Hagerstown, Maryland

We’re headed to western Maryland for today’s forecast, which will likely be less interesting than what they saw yesterday.

At 1153 AM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The East Coast is now dominated by high pressure after yesterday’s strong cold front pushed through. The next system is still lingering off in the High Plains, prepared for any amplification by any perturbation in an otherwise laminar flow aloft.
A very short wave will appear on the jet by tomorrow afternoon, allowing the system to develop over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. It will march across the Ohio Valley towards Hagerstown and likely arrive Wednesday morning, mostly with stratiform rain, but with some thunderstorms embedded.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain beginning early, with some thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 65, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Showers possible. High 68, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant with low humidity High 74, Low 52
Wednesday – Cooler with rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Cloudy High 68, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 68, Low 53

Those late showers are really going to mess with the afternoon temperatures on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Tougher than Alabama

Yesterday’s verification went extremely well for us, despite the thunderstorms strewn across the southeast, as they often are this time of year. In Hanford, California, they are probably a few months from their next rain storm, yet somehow, our temperatures were off. Cooler, in fact, a problem that was seen across the board. The Weather Channel and Weather Service tied atop the leader board.
Actuals: Saturday – High 95, Low 66
Sunday – High 95, Low 67

Grade: A

Elmira, New York

It looks like a stormy day for most of the East Coast today, as a tornado watch has been posted from Portland, Maine to Philadelphia. How will it be just inland?

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was behind the front causing the severe weather in New York, and was seeing clear skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm was still being seen northeast of Ithaca, and there was a remote chance it might clip the city before it eventually fades, and the rest of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures dropping precipitously.
The jet is generally laminar across the country, with a perturbation moving through New England leading to the thunderstorm activity. While high pressure behind the system isn’t strong, it will take hold with the smooth flow aloft for Elmira to begin the next week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist to begin the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 45
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 72, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 43

And here is the radar, showing Elmira almost out of the woods.

If I coud only bottle this magic

The forecast from Victoria-Weather for Auburn:
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

There weren’t any storms in Auburn on Saturday(everywhere else in Alabama, however) but the temperatures came out like this:
Friday, High 84, Low 70
Saturday, High 86, Low 72.
Needless to say, we pulled down the victory with 1 degree of error with Friday’s high. So I don’t have to enscribe the “actuals”, I’ll just tell you that there was .05 inches of rain on Friday.

Grade: A

This is tough to do


Here we sit, just after noon, and there is a moderate risk for severe weather just north of the Ohio River from about Pittsburgh to Ottumwa, Iowa, there is a tornado watch for Upstate New York and western New England and we have one severe report in the smallest state in the country. That is statistically improbable.
If you were wondering, Coventry, Rhode Island saw a thunderstorm roll through early this morning and blew down trees and power lines. Later this afternoon, a slow moving cold front will set off some showers and thunderstorms for the Ohio Valley, somewhat similar to what they saw in Rhode Island this morning, with the strong winds, however there is also a good threat for tornadoes, especially in central Illinois this afternoon.

The Week Ahead 6/6/10-6/12/10

Our first full week in June will be East Coast heavy, but we will take one long trip out to the West Coast.

Sunday – Elmira, New York
Monday – Hagerstown, Maryland
Tuesday – Corvallis, Oregon; Road trip from Hagerstown to Corvallis
Friday – Road Trip from Erie, Pennsylvania to Ocean City, New Jersey

Hanford, California

We are going to the home of central California’s weather service. I can tell you nothing else about Hanford.

At 953AM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with sunny skies. The humidity in the valley was unusually high, with dew points in the low 60s for areas surrounding. High pressure was dominating the region, with a mostly northerly flow bringing in some of the unexpected moisture into the Valley from the low lying areas of San Francisco Bay. The sunny skies are generating the warm inland temperatures.
Mostly laminar flow over the northwest is generating disturbed weather over the Pacific Northwest, but at the same time is cutting it off from reaching south into California. If anything, the jet aloft will ridge, creating even more stability, heat and a little bit of humidity for Hanford.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, hot, High 93, Low 63
Sunday – Hot, High 95, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 96, Low 67
Sunday – Sunny High 98, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with brilliant sunshine High 91, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and very warm High 93, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow -Sunny. High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny. High 94, Low 64

The temperature forecasts are surprisingly divergent Here is the satellite, showing how sunny California is.

Benton Harbor, Michigan to Auburn, Alabama

Alabama day continues, with a road trip to the first state alphabetically. We’ll be traversing the center of the country, riding the Tennessee Valley from southwestern Michigan to southwestern Alabama. The trip covers 772 miles and will take us a day and a half. We will start by passing through the fringes of the Chicago metro, then will pass through Indianapolis, Louisville, Nashville and Birmingham before getting off the interstate to head towards Auburn. It will take us a day and a half to head through these metropolises at a pace of 61.3mph. The first day, covering about 2/3rds of the trip will only see 490 miles tick off on our odometer, but it’s going to be slowed down by a Friday drive through all those cities.

DAY ONE

A strongish system skirting the US border in Canada and a weak upper low with a lot of energy to work with in the Gulf will be putting a squeeze on us as we begin our drive. A cold front with heavier showers and thunderstorms with sometimes gusty winds will be sweeping into Lake Michigan as we head south. We’ll be dry for sure until we get to about Indianapolis, when we’ll be in the northern reach of the instability of the southeast. We should stay dry most of the way through Indiana, but the threat for showers and storms will be there, and will only increase as we had south. There’s a good chance we will see SOME rain by the time we reach Franklin, Tennessee, just south of Nashville and our stop for the night, but given the pattern, it’s tough to say exactly where it’s going to hit us. Most likely somewhere south of the Ohio River, however.

DAY TWO
The storms will die off over night, which is nice for any of us that want to sleep. OF course, who wants to do that in a hopping town like Franklin? The storms will take a until after 1 or so to really get going in Alabama and Tennessee, and by that time, we’ll already be on 280 between Birmingham and Auburn. We’ll probably have to dodge a thunderstorm or two in that last hour of the trip, and they will likely be stronger than anything we see on Friday, but there is also a good chance the sun will be shining when we show up in Auburb.

Auburn, Alabama

Alabama day continues here at Victoria-Weather. Let’s take a look at Auburn, a little bit further south than Decatur.

At 115PM, CT, Auburn was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. Showers and thunderstorms were being seen generally south of Auburn and Montgomery, though Alexander City to the northwest was reporting a shower passing over the city.
Weak low pressure dominated the US east of the Mississippi, with a small wave over the Great Lakes, and a jet trough over northeastern Mexico. The trough over Mexico will become more important for southern Alabama as the weekend approaches. With the heat and humidity already in place, no trigger has been needed for afternoon thunderstorms. Don’t be surprised if, as the upper level low shifts slowly towards the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms in Auburn are stronger and better organized for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid High 81, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 69
Saturday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 85, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 67
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 69

Low temperature spreads are usually the result of clouds hampering a city’s ability to warm up. In Alabama, the high dew points are preventing things from cooling off. Here is a look at the radar, showing those thunderstorms south of Auburn.

Unstable

No, the title doesn’t allude to the mental state of Anthony and myself. It describes the summer time atmosphere in Decatur. As Anthony correctly described, the heat in the afternoons led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama, some of them clipping Decatur both Tuesday and Wednesday. As it turned out, the coverage of thunderstorms was enough that temperatures on Wednesday didn’t reach the 90s as had been initially forecast. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thanks in large part to out right-down-the-middle forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68
Wednesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 66

Grade: B

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