Midday thunder

I have been anticipating a rough forecast for somewhere for a while with the upper level low covering the eastern third of the country. There was too much room for a peek of sun to send temperatures skyrocketing, or the threat for constant rain to tamp temperatures down. For Columbus, it was a line of thunderstorms moving in on Friday before the heating of the day really got ramped up. All told, things weren’t as bad as they could have been, especially since V-W netted the victory.
Actuals: Friday – .59 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 50
Saturday .04 inches of rain, High 54, Low 43

Grade: C

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Are you excited for a trip the coast? After the past few days, they will be excited about this forecast in Myrtle Beach too.

At 845PM, ET, Myrtle Beach was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An upper level low continues to churn over the mid Atlantic with a substantial “dry” slot getting siphoned north into the Carolinas. Scattered showers, such as those seen around the Piedmont are still going to be a threat with energy swept east with the spinning low to the north. The current clearing trend, however, is a good sign.
The low will take it’s time moving. In 48 hours, it is projected to move maybe 300 miles. All this means little change overall for the east coast, however in Myrtle Beach, expect a dramatic change in fortunes. The lift to the north and east will further establish the dry slot over the Carolinas (again, a dry slot fed by the Gulf of Mexico isn’t all that dry) and trap much of the wrap around moisture behind the Appalachians. Expect clearing conditions and maybe a peek of sun over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
Monday – Clearer still and a little warmer, High 61, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. high 60, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 60, Low 44
Monday – Breezy with sun and some clouds High 59, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny high 61, Low 43
Monday – Mostly sunny High 63, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then becoming mostly cloudy. High 61, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 48

First time using parentheses in a forecast, I think. Here is a cool satellite from the Wilmington office, showing a few showers in the area.

The week ahead: 3/14/10-3/20/10

Let’s hope this week goes a little better than the last time we put out a schedule, eh? We’ll be quite the world travelers…. well, national travelers with three trips on the docket.

Monday – Fresno, California
Tuesday – Road Trip, Fresno to Allentown, Pennsylvania
Wednesday – Road Trip, Allentown to Montgomery, Alabama
Thursday – Richmond, Virginia
Saturday – Newport News, Virginia, Road Trip Jonesboro, Arkansas to Newport News

Some overdue congratulations

For those that don’t know, most of the site design decisions here at Victoria Weather have been suggested and implemented by our friend Donya, who has a much better eye for for pretty much everything than we do, not to mention a greater understanding for HTML design. Part of the exasperating problem with this past month’s hacking and rebuilding problem is that Donya has been unavailable. You see, on the day that the site went down, Donya was at the hospital, giving birth to her first child. Her baby son had some trouble early on, but his prospects now are good and they should all be able to go home by the end of next week. So from Anthony and I, we wanted to congratulate Donya and her husband Beau on their new addition, and hope for the best for all three. After the past week, I certainly can’t wait until Donya is back to 100%!

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B

Columbus, Georgia

Will we find ourselves in southern Georgia with today’s forecast, as we try to navigate our way into a complex upper level pattern afflicting the country.

At 1251PM, ET, PM, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Just to the east, the most recent rake of rain and low clouds was continuing to drive eastward, allowing the Columbus area to see quickly rising temperatures. They found themselves 10 degrees warmer than their neighbors to the east. The overall upper pattern is still being driven by an upper low over the center of the country that extends it’s reach nearly from coast to coast.
Fortunately for the Southeast, there is only one more perturbation left in the flow of this upper level low, which will mean another round of showers and thunderstorms traversing the southeast tomorrow. If the warming trend continues today as it appears it will, there will be plenty of fuel in southwestern Georgia to generate a few significant thunderstorms around midday tomorrow. Expect some clouds and light showers on Saturday as the perturbation acts to pull down the upper low south into the Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, especially in the early afternoon. Some may be severe. High 70, Low 53 (non standard
Saturday – Cloudy with areas of drizzle, High 59, low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy. High 62, low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm; cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon high 70, Low 54
Saturday – Variable cloudiness High 61, low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 69, low 51
Saturday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly cloudy high 62, Low 46

A look at the satellite shows some abrupt clearing for Columbus. Not bad at all.

Hey, a verification!

We haven’t been able to fire one of these bad boys off in a while, but now we can look at Bay City, Michigan, the site of the return forecast. As if to show everyone that we aren’t going to take any funny business in this newest incarnation of Victoria-Weather, we marked our territory with an early victory. We made our greatest strides on Wednesday, when temperatures were unable to cool off overnight because of the increasing clouds, just like we envisioned. Huzzah!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 55, Low 30
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 48, Low 37

Grade A

Memphis, Tennessee to Elkhart, Indiana

Our first trip on the new version of the site takes us from Memphis to northern Indiana on a trip that will take us nearly 10 hours. Not a terrible day, but longer than we are used to. It’s a 611 mile trip that will see us travel at a rate of almost 62mph, slowed down by the intricate interstate systems of Memphis and Chicago. It’s going to be a soggy trip, so lets change those windshield wipers and be on our way.


It will have been miserable in Memphis for about 48 hours by the time we leave, so why should we expect anything different? A whirling mass of rain and clouds over the center of the country isn’t going anywhere. The most recent round will feature a stronger cold front that is primed to enter Memphis just after midnight tonight, bringing some thunderstorms into the mix. As we leave Memphis, we’ll be driving in the heaviest of the rain, but will see an abrupt clearing as we pass through Arkansas, Missouri and into Illinois. This front is the best chance we have at some legitimate clearing. It will actually be fairly dry, but probably cloudy most of the way through Illinois, a fairly fitting climate for anyone who is driving through rural Illinois. As we pull into the Kankakee area, we will run into the rain once again. The occluded system will have wrapped itself back east at Chicago, which means we’ll likely be in the rain the rest of the way to Elkhart. Not just a little bit of rain either, but a soaking, thorough rain. Better than snow.

Romania

Our first country post back from the oblivion that was last week’s disaster will take us to Romania. Romania, located in southeast Europe along the Black Sea, has a climate that is akin to that of the Mid-Atlantic here in the US. The geography is fairly similar. They are the same latitude, have a mountain range to the east, see many of the wettest storm systems come from the south because of a warmer body of water (the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean, respectively) that tend to track to the northeast through more water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea), which leave the area dreary and foggy more often than anyone would like in the winter months. They even have the expansive plains to the north to aid in the trafficking of cold winter air during those months, giving the country all 4 seasons. The fundamental difference in geography demonstrate the differences in Romanian weather to the American Mid-Atlantic. The Balkan and Carpathian mountains are a little higher than the Appalachians, and the bodies of water are a little smaller, which, thought various means, leads to cooler, foggier conditions for Romania than what we would see stateside.
The Romanian Department of Environment and Forests is the bureau that monitors Romanian weather, with the National Meteorological Administration housed within. The Administration has 7 offices nationwide for localized forecast purposes, which is a fairly good coverage especially when you look at the distribution of weather service offices in the US. Their site has one of my favorite features, the radar mosaic. It also has an easily navigable set of forecast and warning maps. There are also links to their Romanian National Meteorology School, telling me that it is a state funded organization as well. Good for them to know where they are getting their meteorologists from, I suppose. It’s a good site, and a well constructed organization that has enough eyes out there to figure out the diverse weather of the country.

Memphis, Tennessee

This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony’s forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.

At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it’s initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday – Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
Thursday –
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60

This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don’t now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.

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