Santa Fe, New Mexico

Off to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment.

At 1153AM, PT, Santa Fe was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. The daily monsoon hasn’t yet become active, and a trough over southern New Mexico may slow down the convection, however a strong, developing low over the northern Rockies will probably induce enough southerly flow to overcome the trough’s influence.
The low will shift off to the northeast into Ontario over the forecast period, though a trough will continue to run ahead of the primary cold front in the Upper Midwest. It will act to prevent the thunderstorm activity from filtering out of southern New Mexico, keeping Santa Fe pleasant and dry for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 77, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; breezy High 80, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 83, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thudnerstorms, High 66, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 51

Uh oh, some problems with Weatherbug’s numerical output. Satellite? Quiet

Everybody’s perfect

At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52

Grade: A

Des Moines, Iowa

Oh boy, high pressure!

At 1154AM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. A very well defined ridge existed in the eastern United States, while at the back edge of the ridge, a slow moving boundary fed off the northerly flow created by the anticyclonic flow.
A deep trough over the west will try to push east towards the ridge, but it is expected to hold up to the pressure of the advancing trough. A stronger southerly flow will be induced by the pressure gradient between the two systems, so expect some blustery but warm days for Des Moines.
Tomorrow – Sunny and breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday – Increasingly cloudy, High 86, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Hot. High 91, Low 66
Monday – A few clouds. High 89, Low 71

AW – Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 86, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, breezy and humid High 88, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

That’s going to be tough on Monday. Will it cloud up, or will the warm advection dominate? It will be interesting to see.

The Week Ahead: 8/29/10-9/04/10

We’re spending a lot of time this week in a lot of places not often investigated by us, thanks to our random scheduling mechanism.

Sunday – Santa Fe, New Mexico
Monday – Eugene, Oregon
Wednesday – Laredo, Texas; Road Trip from Rapid City, South Daota to Laredo
Thursday – Altoona, Pennsylvania
Saturday – Midland, Texas

Everybody loves a parade

The beginning of September is the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic, and late August is the ramp up to it. Presently, as you can see by the satellite overlay seen above, we have a train of tropical systems lined up over the north Atlantic. Fortunately at this point, they all appear to have no interest in inflicting any damage upon the United States.
For systems that form as they are coming off the western shores of Africa, there is too much forcing to the north in most cases to the systems to be of major concern for US mainland interests. Hurricane Danielle will be entirely a fish storm (no direct land impact expected) while Tropical Storm Earl, soon to be a hurricane will pose some threat to the Northern Antilles, and may bring some destruction the way of Bermuda. The next wave, which will soon be Tropical Storm Fiona, is still a mystery, but if I had to guess at this point, she will likely follow the path of her older sister Danielle.
If ever there was a location you wanted a stagnant, training pattern, it was with tropical systems in the Atlantic. Thus far, 5 years after the hellacious 2005 season (this is the 5th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall) the United States has been blessed by a merciful Atlantic.

High pressure, high quality

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 65
Thursday – High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

Syracuse, New York

I’m getting to this late, and I really have no good excuse as to why. Sorry, Syracuse.

At 1254AM, ET, Syracuse was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The chilly air was thanks in large part to a dominant ridge of high pressure behind a cool front that has pushed off the New England coast.
Syracuse will remain in their present pattern, as the upper level ridge is well entrenched. Temperatures will warm slightly over the next couple of days, owing to the late summer sun that will be in abundance.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 52
Saturday – Sunshine continues, High 82, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 73, Low 55
Saturday – Sunshine. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow- Areas of morning fog; otherwise, mostly sunny High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, mostly sunny and warmer; a beautiful start to the weekend High 81, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 81, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 81, Low 54

Thank you, Accuweather, for your commentary. It is much appreciated. Here is a look at the satellite, and OH NO WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND?!

Could have been worse

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A

Video of a fire tornado in Brazil

That fairly nifty image (from Russia Today) is tornado borne of extremely hot air caused by the tornado. Dry weather in Sao Paulo (it hasn’t raised in about 3 months) as left the are extremely susceptible to wildfires, such as the one seen above.
These “fire tornadoes” are best explained by looking at the desert southwest in the summer. There is a seasonable area of low pressure called a “thermal low” caused by the extreme heat of mid summer in the desert that exists from about May to October. Imagine that with a stronger temperature gradient (with fire creating air temperatures of several hundred degrees) over a small area, and you get rapidly flowing wind towards the fire. Add to that that it was a gusty day, and voila, you end up with the fascinating scene you had in Sao Paulo, thanks to the area of localized low pressure which helped turn already gusty winds.

Knoxville, Tennessee

At 753PM EDT, the temperature in Knoxville was 80 degrees with a few clouds. A stationary front sitting over the Deep South over towards SC is keeping the vast majority of moisture and thunderstorm activity off to the south of TN. The tail end of a cold front is going to be moving through the OH and TN Valleys tomorrow, but really no precip is expected to develop along it farther south than Kentucky due to the limited moisture and the weakness of the front. As the front dissipates, high pressure pushing into the Central and Northern Plains will continue it’s strong southeast push and make its way into the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. This will push the remnant boundary over the Deep South off into the Atlantic and Northern Gulf of Mexico. With the high pressure building nearly overhead on Thursday, more dry weather will ensue for Eastern TN and our Knoxville residents. All in all, a very nice midweek pattern!

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 65.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, fewer clouds. High 87, Low 66.

NWS: Wednesday: AM fog, then mostly sunny. High 87, Low 64.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 65.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, less humid. High 89, Low 66.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 87, Low 68.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 69.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 88, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 64.

Higher clouds representing showers and a few storms are found off towards the Southeast. Apparently, this will be the closest they get to Knoxville for the next couple of days.

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