Monroe, Louisiana

We’re headed to the stormy southern US for our forecast on this Saturday afternoon.

At 1153AM, CT, Monroe was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 82 degrees. Day time convection has quite obviously already begun in Monroe and across northern Louisiana, where thunderstorm activity was seen from Shreveport to Vicksburg, Mississippi and as far south as Alexandria. Storms had been quite heavy when they clip a town head on, as they were doing in Shreveport, though storms were exiting Monroe for the time being.
The lingering wind shift boundary lay in the midlevels just north of Monroe, providing a focal point for convection in northern Louisiana today. A weak tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico will draw a good deal of moisture towards it over the next couple of days, and the focus for heavier rains will shift to the southern half of the state. It would be foolish to leave out precipitation chances in the south this time of year, however for the next couple of days, the threat will be greatly reduced for thunderstorms in Monroe.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with a low chance for some showers and storms, High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mostly sunny again, with showers and storms primarily south of town, High 93, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 94, Low 76
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 92, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 96, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 93, Low 75
Monday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 75

See? Lower than usual chances for storms in Monroe, and everyone is going about 30% down there. Here is the active radar. Looks like a healthy storm in Shreveport.

The Week Ahead 7/18/10-7/24/10

We’re scattered about the southeastern US, with one notable exception this week.

Sunday – Atlanta, Georgia
Tuesday – Saint Louis, Missouri; Road Trip: Harrisonburg, Virginia to Saint Louis
Wednesday – Billings, Montana; Road Trip Saint Louis to Billins
Thursday – Jackson, Michigan
Friday – Clarksville, Tennessee

Wausau, Wisconsin

After a pretty stormy beginning to the week, Wausau looks pretty good… for now. Be sure to check below the satellite image for some links to some Wausau area weather blogs.

At 1154AM, CT, Wausau was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. High pressure has finally worked its way into the northern tier and will keep today warm and dry, however the jet along the US/Canadian border is becoming stronger, and a trough over the Canadian Rockies will mean surface development over the weekend.
Expect a rough night tomorrow evening as thunderstorms will develop with the low along the Wisconsin/Minnesota border tomorrow evening. The strength of this system will mean a quick warm up on Saturday ahead of the rain and thunder that will come as many in Wausau are asleep. The thunderstorms, which may feature gusty straight line winds, particularly upon their arrival in Wausau in the wee hours of Sunday morning, will plow through quickly, and leave most of Sunday to pick up any debris these storms can blow around.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid, with thunderstorms arriving before midnight, High 90, Low 63
Sunday – Morning thunderstorms, some severe, becoming clearer and much more pleasant, High 81, Low 63 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny (PM Storms). High 85, Low 64
Sunday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm High 79, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and humid (PM Storms) High 90, Low 62
Sunday – A shower or thunderstorm around in the morning; otherwise, partly sunny High 82, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (storms after 10) High 84, Low 62
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. High 83, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy (PM storms), High 84, Low 62
Sunday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 67

Pretty quiet now, but things will light up especially overnight Saturday into Sunday. Get home from the bars early! Don’t forget to check the bottom of the page some links!

Wausau weather blog links!

Weather You Like it Or Not – WAOW is currently looking at storms they saw earlier in the week.

Jeremy Tabin – Tabin is a meteorologist at WSAW and he’s still talking about the storms that brought in some gusty winds earlier this week as well.

New London, Connecticut

I know the schedule fr today was for Norwich, but New London is in the same metro area and actually has an observation station.

At 1156PM, ET, New London was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with cloudy skies. A system in Canada is sweeping a cold front through the eastern Great Lakes and generating an onshore flow that was importing dew points in the upper 60s for the Connecticut coast which was helping the low clouds and some possible sea fog develop along the seashore.
The system in Canada is particularly well developed for this time of year, and it’s cold front will certainly hold together as it continues to charge to the east, arriving in Connecticut tomorrow evening. The nature of the system and it’s well established circulation suggests that some shower activity will continue even after the cold front moves through with post frontal troughs, though humidity will certainly be decreased on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny with some passing showers, High 84, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 68
Saturday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 86, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer and humid with clouds breaking for some sun (rain/storms after 9) High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Humid with times of clouds and sun (Early AM thunderstorms) High 87, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (storms before midnight) High 84, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny (AM rain) High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny with thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny, High 87, Low 70

The Weather Channel and Weatherbug just came out with new websites. Have fun with that. Try and find the cold front here:

This forecasts almost HAS to pan out


The above image is the current SPC forecast for severe winds today. For forecasting an individual type of severe weather, seeing the 60% is extraordinarily rare. When the SPC puts out such outlooks, they generally expect SOMETHING to happen, even when there is only a 15% chance, for example, of severe weather, because technically those percentages are for the chance that one of those events happens within 25 miles of a point in the outlined area. The suggestion of that 60% area isn’t so much that damaging winds are more likely or will be stronger, it’s simply that the damaging winds are almost certain to be widespread.
Later this afternoon, Anthony will come through and post a radar still to see how the storms are doing after what is certain to be a derecho sets itself up in eastern Minnesota or western Wisconsin. Later, I’ll come back and update with an image of the storm reports of the day. Stay tuned and keep safe.

UPDATE (5:16PM CDT): Well our line of thunderstorms developed nearly right on top of the Minneapolis-Twin Cities metro area earlier this afternoon, with a confirmed tornado not too far south-southeast of the area. Now as the line heads towards the east, it’s starting to transition to a severe thunderstorm threat, albeit with some embedded tornadoes possible. And later tonight, another possible line of thunderstorms as the front itself moves through the region. Active day around here for sure.

UPDATE (932PM):

We can now take a look at the storm reports so far today to see how things have gone. They are widespread across northern Wisconsin, but fairly absent from the area where we had a 60% chance for the severe winds. That said, there is still a line of thunderstorms along the front extending from north central Wisconsin southwest towards Omaha, and some more reports could come in to help verify that little bubble a little later tonight. So far, the forecast put forth by the SPC looks as though it was good, but perhaps it’s safe to say this wasn’t quite the event they were expecting in Norman.

Well, I was right

I said at the time I was forecasting for the beautiful Napa Valley that I wasn’t quite sure why everyone was going so much warmer than models indicated. They had stayed cooler than average, which is what the models were saying again on Sunday when the forecast was issued. Believe it or not, they stayed fairly cool again, which I TRIED to tell you people. It stayed even cooler than what I had thought. Summer will come to California some day.

Actuals: Monday – High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – High 75, low 56

Grade B

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein is a mountain nation wedged between Austria and Switzerland. It covers less than 62 square miles, which makes it smaller than many counties in the United States. It is also the wealthiest nation in the world, per capita thanks to it’s banking industry. It also has a prevailing southerly flow that keeps things fairly warm compared to other areas at their altitude. The mountains do, however, induce a lot of little microclimates and induce quite a bit of elevation snow.
Liechtenstein, despite their financial cache, does not have a weather department.

The Earth is hungry, enjoys Toyota Camrys

Once again, the earth has opened up following a good dose of rain and swallowed everything above it. This time it happened in Tampa, when a 20′ by 20′ hole gobbled up part of a parking lot, the lawn in front of a condominium complex and, of course that delicious 1995 Toyota Camry. I’ve heard that the Earth’s crust loves Japanese food.

No word on anything special that might have caused this sinkhole. The last we saw a sinkhole, it was in Guatemala and had been caused by Tropical Storm Agatha, which dumped an enormous amount of rain on the city. Tampa typically sees an exorbitant amount of rain, on the order of 6 and a half inches for the month of July, and there weren’t any tropical systems in the area that might generate a marked increase in rainfall, and in fact, Tampa only reported only about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, and none the day before. IT appears this may have just been another case of a leaky pipe, natural spring or just bad luck.

Napa, California to Farmington, New Mexico

We’re going to take a delightful road trip from beautiful Napa Valley to the 4 Corners of New Mexico, undoubtedly seeing some beautiful desert landscapes. It’s a two day drive that covers 1061 miles. The second day will be a few miles longer, as our 64.9mph pace will net us 519 miles on the first day, less than half what we want.

DAY ONE

Things are rather chilly by the standards of southern California this summer.It’s still plenty warm near Death Valley, which is about as far as we will make it on our first day. We shouldn’t have to worry about too much weather, as we’ll be inland of the coast, which will keep us out of the clouds. Some models seem to think there will be some shower activity along the Mexican border, but we aren’t going that far south. We’ll stop in Fenner, California, which is not the most densely populated area.

DAY TWO
We are in the throws of “monsoon” season in the west, and this typically means showers and storms for Arizona and New Mexico in the afternoon and evening. Depending on the flow, it can be fairly widespread, or it can just be an isolated cell or two causing headaches for the resorts of Colorado. New Mexico is almost always active, as wit will be on Wednesday. Actually, models indicate a more organized boundary scooting through the area, so perhaps a few more thunderstorms will be in the Farmington area than we should expect upon our arrival on Wednesday. Expect the threat to pick up pretty soon after we arrive in New Mexico maybe a few miles before that. Then all we have left to do is go out and enjoy the natural splendors of New Mexico. Land of enchantment!

Napa, California

For as warm as it’s been in the east, parts of California are cooler than they were in January. San Diego has reported record low maximum temperatures for the past week. Napa is north of San Francisco though. What are we doing there?

At 1254PM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. An unsettled pattered across the United States was demonstrated well by the upper levels which were littered with various eddies and troughs. Over the eastern Pacific a weak cut off low was set up, likely belaboring morning sea fog with the associated southeasterly flow for San Francisco Bay and the surrounding communities.
The low isn’t expected to move much for the next couple of days, which doesn’t bode well for a warm up in the Bay area, as the persistent cool, most flow will continue into the Napa Valley from the southeast. It won’t be as foggy as the cities along the immediate coast in the mornings, and it will likely be cooler than is typically expected this time of year.
Tomorrow – Morning fog and clouds, High 77, Low 53
Tuesday – Morning fog and clouds again, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 79, Low 56
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 81, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 78, Low 54
Tuesday – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny High 77, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 54
Tuesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of morning low clouds and fog. Otherwise sunny High 81, Low 59
Tuesday – Areas of morning low clouds and fog. Otherwise sunny. High 81, Low 58

Everyone is going warmer than what the models indicate, but that hasn’t born itself out lately, so I’m not sure where their ideas are coming from. We’ll find out soon enough what happens. The satellite is very quiet.

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