Verification

Summer is fleeting

Tuesday in Hagerstown couldn’t have been nicer. It was 80 degrees with clear skies, birds were singing and children were playing in the park. Then Wednesday happened. Almost a half an inch of drizzle fell through the day, and the temperatures stayed in the 60s all day. Rather unpleasant, and the bipolar weather did a number on our forecasts as well. Except the Weather Channel, who must have insight into mental disorders, because their forecast was a revelation, and they were 12 degrees better than the next forecaster, Accuweather. Well played, Atlanta.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 80, Low 56
Wednesday – .45 inches of rain, High 69, Low 60

Grade: A (for the Weather Channel, C’s and D’s for the rest of us)

Story

The deal with models

Yesterday, I mentioned in my post on the Philippines how awesome it was that there was a proprietary model that had been developed by that nation. I thought I would mention a few things about models, and why this is such an interesting quirk.
Models, first off, are generated when observations are plugged into nasty, almost unsolvable calculations. They have to make certain assumptions so the calculations can be solved to some degree, and the reason that there are different models is because of the different assumptions. The models that encompass the highest area solve those equations for a larger plot of land, just so the models can generate output fast enough to be usable for forecasters.
Some models are produced to cover smaller areas and thereby have a smaller resolution. They can miss the greater picture, sometimes, but can often interpret smaller scale events. There is the one GFS model that covers the globe that we use here in the United States, and is produced at NCEP in Colorado. Additionally, the NAM is nested in the GFS and has a higher resolution and solves exclusively for North America. It does better often with southern convection, but the GFS is the superior model for larger systems. Both serve their purpose. Additionally, there are models called the RUC and WRF that are short term models that do very well with convection. For longer forecasts, American meteorologists can use models produced in Canada and Europe, colloquially known as the Canadian and European models.
It’s not often that models are seen outside of the meteorological world, though the American models are freely available if you know where to look. Many other countries keep theirs under wraps, but the Philippines put theirs out there. It was a small area, so the resolution is likely good, though it appeared to only solve for a few variables, like wind, pressure and rain, however in the tropics, that is more than enough.

Verification

Seems like it should be easier

The temperature and precip totals for Elmira were exactly the same on Monday and Tuesday. So why were the forecasts so errant? Well, it wasn’t terribly cloudy, but those that were there did keep the temperatures from climbing over 70 or dropping below 45, which meant that the spreads from our vaunted forecasters were a little off on every verifying time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.

Actuals: Monday, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday, High 69, Low 46

Grade: C

Country

Philippines

Our journey around the world takes us to the archipelago in the far western Pacific that lies just to the north of the equator. As one could imagine, the climate is hot and humid. They are far enough north that they are in the typhoon belt and are typically assailed, particularly on the eastern shores, by an annual handful of tropical systems. With the adjustment of the ITCZ, they see a seasonal monsoon, particularly on the western islands that, as luck would have it, is going on now. They are fairly rainy on the east coast all year long.
The Philippines has the delightfully acronymed PAGASA, or Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Atmospheric Services Administration to make sure the weather isn’t threatening the island chain. Every panel on the side bar of their site opens an informative new window that will talk about their real time weather services or disaster prevention or what have you. There isn’t a radar available, but under the “real time weather” you can access satellite and city forecasts. Quite impressively, they discuss their proprietary MM5 model, which they use for forecasting in the Philippines. Perhaps that’s only cool to a meteorologist. I love a site that gives access to the numerical models for their particular region, because it gives insight into the way the forecast. A very cool feature from the Philippines. It’s not often that you see a country with it’s own model.

Road Trip

Hagerstown, Maryland to Corvallis, Oregon

A long distance drive today, likely to take us into a short 6th day. It will cover 2753 miles, and after a slow start through some hill country, we will eventually speed up. Our average pace will be 64.9mph, fairly slow for a cross country trek. We’ll cover about 519 miles a day at that pace, which, frankly, isn’t a whole lot. We have some driving to do, so lets get to it!

DAY ONE


Well, we couldn’t have timed our departure better. A system will move into Hagerstown by the time we leage, with a warm front angled from Hagerstown northwest towards Pittsburgh, which is essentially our route to start the day. By afternoon, the heaviest slug of rain will be up towards Cleveland, also part of our route. Rain will clear out by the time we are south of Sandusky, and we will be in dry weather for the rest of the day, which will end in Elkhart, Indiana. Our route will take us just south of Milbury, Ohio, the suburb of Toledo devastated by an EF4 tornado over the weekend.

DAY TWO
Our day will begin quietly, and we can traverse the rest of Indiana and Illinois in peace (aside from any traffic in our neighborhood) though as we slip on out of the Quad Cities, the threat for some showers and isolated thunderstorms will pick up. A developing system in the High Plains will be the culprit, and any rain we see will be the result of hot humid air streaming north. That means it could be torrential at times, but won’t likely be associated with anything severe. Our day will end in Walnut, Iowa, which is about 45 miles from the Nebraska border.

DAY THREE
Most of the rain, at this point, looks like it is going to stay north of I-80 in Nebraska. Expect a lot of driving in Nebraska, by the way. There is a chance we could see some rain before we reach the Panhandle, but the way things have trended lately, it seems much more likely that we will be dry and fairly warm from Walnut to Ogallala, Nebraska. Some rain and a cooler wind will then kick in, ending our party. The day will end in Burns, Wyoming, just after we cross the border from Nebraska.

DAY FOUR
This will likely be the rainiest day of our drive. A distinctly summerlike wave will get hung up over the Upper Midwest and trail back into Wyoming, stalled and bleary. We’ll see our heaviest rain as we pass through the highest elevations of the state. Frankly, we’ll hope to be out ASAP,, given the way things look. Utah will be better, but now much. We’ll again be driving through the peaks and valleys of that state, and contend with some remnant showers into the Panhandle there. The day ends right up along the Idaho border, in Blue Creek.

DAY FIVE
We’ll experience some showers to begin our Sunday. We should get out of it by the time we reach the Rupert, Idaho area, and then finally be in the sun. I can’t foresee any rain for our Sunday afternoon. The day will take us through the rural parts of Oregon, and the day will end in the remote town of Millican, right in the middle of the state.

DAY SIX
With that many words expended thus far, I think we deserve a nice finish to day. We’ll get to enjoy the Cascades in all their sunny glory. Don’t worry about any weather problems as we finally close in on Corvallis.

Forecast

Corvallis, Oregon

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Off to the west coast for the only time this week. It’s been rainy for weeks out there, could things be on the upswing?

At 935AM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. High pressure was beginning to nose into the Pacific Northwest, though clouds were still being generated with light westerly flow off the cool Pacific. A jet streak a loft was transporting the next bundle of energy into the area, expected to arrive overnight tonight.
The system, as it often happens in the west, will get mired in the Northern Rockies as the trough digs deeper into the Great Basin. It will then act as an inverted trough as another surface system develops in the High Plains. The wettest weather will be tomorrow morning, and there is a chance it won’t rain Thursday, but at the very least, it will be cloudy through midweek for Corvallis..
Tomorrow – Rain, especially in the morning, High 65, Low 56
Thursday – Cloudy with a chance for some drizzle, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 64, Low 55
Thursday – Showers possible. High 65, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cooler with rain High 64, Low 56
Thursday – Mainly cloudy with showers High 64, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 64, Low 54
Thursday – Showers likely. Mostly cloudy High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. High 64, Low 53
Thursday – Showers likely. High 63, Low 48

Pretty dreary, but this is what you get with a day on the west coast, right? Here is the satellite, showing some clouds streaming in towards Corvallis.

Forecast

Hagerstown, Maryland

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We’re headed to western Maryland for today’s forecast, which will likely be less interesting than what they saw yesterday.

At 1153 AM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The East Coast is now dominated by high pressure after yesterday’s strong cold front pushed through. The next system is still lingering off in the High Plains, prepared for any amplification by any perturbation in an otherwise laminar flow aloft.
A very short wave will appear on the jet by tomorrow afternoon, allowing the system to develop over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. It will march across the Ohio Valley towards Hagerstown and likely arrive Wednesday morning, mostly with stratiform rain, but with some thunderstorms embedded.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain beginning early, with some thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 65, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Showers possible. High 68, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant with low humidity High 74, Low 52
Wednesday – Cooler with rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Cloudy High 68, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 68, Low 53

Those late showers are really going to mess with the afternoon temperatures on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Verification

Tougher than Alabama

Yesterday’s verification went extremely well for us, despite the thunderstorms strewn across the southeast, as they often are this time of year. In Hanford, California, they are probably a few months from their next rain storm, yet somehow, our temperatures were off. Cooler, in fact, a problem that was seen across the board. The Weather Channel and Weather Service tied atop the leader board.
Actuals: Saturday – High 95, Low 66
Sunday – High 95, Low 67

Grade: A

Forecast

Elmira, New York

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It looks like a stormy day for most of the East Coast today, as a tornado watch has been posted from Portland, Maine to Philadelphia. How will it be just inland?

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was behind the front causing the severe weather in New York, and was seeing clear skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm was still being seen northeast of Ithaca, and there was a remote chance it might clip the city before it eventually fades, and the rest of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures dropping precipitously.
The jet is generally laminar across the country, with a perturbation moving through New England leading to the thunderstorm activity. While high pressure behind the system isn’t strong, it will take hold with the smooth flow aloft for Elmira to begin the next week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist to begin the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 45
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 72, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 43

And here is the radar, showing Elmira almost out of the woods.

Verification

If I coud only bottle this magic

The forecast from Victoria-Weather for Auburn:
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

There weren’t any storms in Auburn on Saturday(everywhere else in Alabama, however) but the temperatures came out like this:
Friday, High 84, Low 70
Saturday, High 86, Low 72.
Needless to say, we pulled down the victory with 1 degree of error with Friday’s high. So I don’t have to enscribe the “actuals”, I’ll just tell you that there was .05 inches of rain on Friday.

Grade: A

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