Redding, California

Behold, as once again I do a forecast for a California town! However, this one is not along the coast or in Southern CA, so a bit of a treat! Will the weather be a treat as well, or will it trick us with some midweek gloom?

At 6:53pm PDT, the temperature at Redding, CA was 78 degrees under fair skies. High pressure has taken hold over Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies, with the southern extend of the high holding firm over Northern CA. Redding is found at the very northern edge of CA’s Central Valley before you get into the more mountainous terrain of far northern CA, so warm temperatures are still commonplace later in the fall season. An upper level low has been camping out over Southern CA making it rainy for LA and San Diego, but is far enough south that only some weak cloud layers have managed to venture over Redding the last couple of days. With high pressure continuing to deflect any systems up into Canada, Redding should continue their streak of pleasant weather into midweek.

Tuesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 52.
Wednesday: More sun. High 81, Low 49.

TWC: Tuesday: Sunny. High 88, Low 55.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 53.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 46.
Wednesday: More sun, morning low breaking 1996 record of 40. High 80, Low 39.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 86, Low 55.
Wednesday: Continued sunny. High 82, Low 56.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 50.

There’s going out on a limb, and going WAY out on a limb, as Accuweather is forecasting a Wednesday morning low 10-15 colder than everybody else and breaking the record. Well, no guts no glory right? Here we see the relatively benign conditions over northern CA.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

We’re off to the land of cheese, where the Packers just allowed a Dolphins touchdown. Uh oh, Green Bay!

At 153PM, CT, Green Bay was reporting a pleasant temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies and a westerly breeze. The air was very dry in eastern Wisconsin, as an area of high pressure was bulding behind a weak, dry cold front that was making a hard charge into New England.
A weak upper wave was being reflected more strongly in the mid levels, which was leading to some light showers and a lot of clouds for the upper Midwest and high plains. Those clouds will filter into Wisconsin over the next few hours. A cut off area of low pressure will stay out west, and a weak directional trough associated with a Canadian jet will swing south of Green Bay with little consequence The stronger northerly jet will begin to ridge and strengthen, with the weak troughing moving to the east. This is a complicated way of saying that there may be some clouds tomorrow morning, with clearing weather expected on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine. High 59, Low 40
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 61, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and limited sun High 56, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 56, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 55, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

Looks like pleasant autumnal weather for Green Bay. A look at the satellite shows all those clouds moving into the Upper Midwest.

Introducing Allan Persons

I have exciting news on behalf of Victoria-Weather and The Weather Blog. Starting this Tuesday, Anthony and I will welcome a new writer to the fold, Allan Persons. He is a meteorologist like myself and Anthony, and like Anthony, he is a graduate of St. Cloud State University here in Minnesota.
Allan has a special interest in hiking and mountain climbing, having climbed Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania earlier this year. He will bring his expertise in that arena to his forecasts, which will focus on the needs of the every day outdoorsman.
So, please, welcome Allan to the fold, I have every confidence that he will do a great job!

And then the bottom dropped out

Showery conditions were the norm for Benton Harbor to end the week, with Friday being the rainier of the two days. The real surprise was the strength of a cold front that swept through on Wednesday, and more specifically what it did to overnight lows. Temperatures dropped to the 30s for lows in each of those days, considerably cooler than anyone had anticipated. V-W and Accuweather had the top spot for the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 63, Low 37
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: D

Palm Coast, Florida to Punta Gorda, Florida

It’s just a short little intra-state adventure as we head from the Atlantic to Gulf Coasts of Florida, covering 215 miles over 4 hours and change. That means a pace of 52mph, because we’re not exactly taking interstaes on this trip. Let’s see Florida!

The drive across Florida will be beset by a few obstacles. The first will be the sun, which will undoubtedly be in our eyes. The second is the warmth, which will mean the windows should be rolled down, making it difficult to hear the radio. Then, of course, is the drive through Orlando, and the inevitable desire to stop at Disney World. So, pretty tough drive to Punta Gorda.

Punta Gorda, Florida

We’re spending our Friday in south Florida today, along the Gulf Coast in beautiful Punta Gorda (English: Fat point)

At 1253PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. Florida was behind a cold front that was attached to a Nor’easter sliding up the coast of New England. This boundary has also served to hook up with Hurricane Paula and take her away from Florida, leaving the peninsula rather pleasant.
High pressure and subsident air will continue to dominate Florida for the next couple of days. Gulf temperatures are warm enough and surface temperatures have cooled enough that the seabreeze has cut off. Clear air will be in charge for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny, High 84, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 54
Sunday – Sunshine. High 86, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny High 84, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny and pleasant High 85, low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloud High 85, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 84, Low 60

The Weather Service forecast was broken, so I had to infer some temperatures. Anyways, here is the satellite, showing the offshore system very well.

I guess it was a cold front

A weak little boundary was supposed to sweep through Tuscaloosa on Tuesday, with the city recovering on Wednesday with temperatures climbing back into the 80s. Well, that’s what we mostly thought was going to happen. As it turned out, the little boundary brought some cooler air along with it. The jet aloft strengthened considerably compared to the expectation which fostered the cooler advection, and the high on Wednesday was 6-8 degrees cooler than expected, depending on who you asked. The top spot went to Victoria Weather and the Weather Service, who lost points for forecasting more showers on Wednesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain, High 80, Low 57
Wednesday – High 76, Low 57.

Grade: C

Benton Harbor, Michigan

For the first time since September, the forecast is for a site where something is actually going on!

At 1229pm, ET, Benton Harbor was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with light rain. A cold front had just passed through town, with wind reorienting to become northerly. The leading edge of the heavy rain lay from Lansing to Michigan City, Indiana, so the the steady march of the boundary suggested that the backfill currently in Benton Harbor will be short lived, and the town would clear out nicely this afternoon, though there was a batch of heavier rain over southern Lake Michigan to contend with first.
The upper level trough associated with the system is strong and is digging deeply into the east. This means that the system, after it departs from southern Michigan, will develop intensely and rapidly as the supporting trough aloft strengthens. A ripple at the back edge of the jet will mean some instability across Michigan, and showers will stream through the Lower Peninsula on Friday. In the meantime, expect a more seasonable feel to the air.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, with showers late, High 62, Low 44
Friday – Chance of showers, mostly east of town, High 58, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds (late PM rain). High 63, Low 45
Friday – Morning showers High 58, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 45
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a passing shower; breezy High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, High 62, Low 49
Friday – Partly sunny, High 61, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy a 30 percent chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 47
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 43.

Once again, the Weather Service and Weatherbug are straying from the common consensus. We’ll see how that works out for them. Here is the radar, showing things sliding out of town. (The radar image is from about an hour later than was described in the forecast. Technical flaws and all).

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