Fargo, North Dakota

It’s going to be stormy today in Fargo, but what will the next two days bring to North Dakota’s largest city?

At 953AM, CT, Fargo was reporting 86 degrees with mostly sunny skies. A cold front associated with low pressure in Canada was sweeping through the Dakotas and would dictate today’s weather along the Red River. The front was clearly demarcated already at this early hour, with temperatures along the Minnesota border already in the mid 80s, however to the west in Devils Lake and Bismarck, temperatures were only in the 70s with dew points that were also about 10 degrees cooler. Across the river in Moorhead, Minnesota, dew points were in the 70s.
Nothing had been triggered as yet in this juicy, dynamic atmosphere, and the visible satellite gave no hints that anything would happen in the next few hours either. The system has languished in the Pacific Northwest for days, but is now moving much more quickly, and the wet weather should be at it’s in by day break tomorrow. Another trough sweeping through Canada may bring the threat for a sprinkle late on Monday, but attempts at fireworks tomorrow night will be dry and successful.
Tomorrow – Early AM showers, otherwise cooler and pleasant. High 80, Low 64
Monday – Pleasant for most of the day, with a very light bit of drizzle, High 81, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy (early AM T-Storms). High 84. Low 67
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, less humid with clouds breaking for some sun High 84, Low 65
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Rain thru 6am) High 81, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning High 81, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 57

A look at the visible satellite shows that not much is ready to blow up over eastern North Dakota…. yet.

Surprising chill

That’s a tough title to wrap your head around when, in fact, Jefferson City was in the mid 80s for highs for the past two days. When everyone forecasts highs a few degrees warmer, thanks to the clear skies and southerly flow, it is a little surprising that temperatures don’t get up to the neighborhood we were expecting. Victoria Weather still managed the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 64
Friday – High 86, Low 62

Grade: C

The Week Ahead: 7/4/10-7/10/10

We’ll start on Independence day, then kep on moving through the rest of the week on what promises to be a fairly busy stretch.

Sunday – Wichita, Kansas
Monday – Cheyenne, Wyoming
Wednesday – Winchester, Virginia
Friday – Road Trip from Greenville, North Carolina to Nashville, Tennessee

San Jose, California

Off to the West Coast and the Bay Area for today’s forecast. People don’t know it, but this is one of the three biggest cities in California.

At 853AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with a few low clouds. The marine layer was still keeping things murky on the northern and central areas of the Bay, but the southern Bay was already clearing out and will warm up nicely this afternoon.
A trough over the northern Rockies continues to move extremely slowly, and a boundary has moved incrementally over the past several days. It has only been problematic in Montana, where the system is centered, but the flow associated with the low has meant a northwesterly flow off the Pacific. The ridge in the east is rather enormous, and it is not expected to allow the western trough to advance rapidly, and the northerly flow will continue. Expect foggy, cloudy mornings and a sunnier, warmer afternoon.
Tomorrow – Dreary in the morning, then sunny, High 83, Low 56
Sunday – A carbon copy of Saturday, with morning haze and sunny skies later, 87, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – High Mainly sunny. High 84, Low 57
Sunday – Sunshine High 88, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – A full day of sunshine High 83, Low 56
Sunday – Bright and sunny High 88, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 86, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 84, Low 59

I’m confused as to why the NWS and Weatherbug are going cooler on Sunday. That doesn’t seem right. And of course, Sunday is Independence Day, so it looks like it will be good in San Jose!

June Forecaster of the Month

There was really no competition this month. Well, there was some last minute jockeying for position for numbers 2 through 5, but The Weather Channel simply ran away with things this month. It’s turning into a strong year for our friends in Atlanta.

A breath of fresh air

Sioux City successfully made it through the end of June without any more problems, seeing temperatures in the lower 80s with not a drop of rain to be had. Not a bad way to close out the month, especially the way it had been going. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 82, Low 53
Wednesday – High 84, Low 56

Grade: A

Jefferson City, Missouri

And we’re off to central Missouri for the forecast on this beautiful Wednesday.

At 1053AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Hurricane Alex and a cold front were interacting to keep showers and thunderstorms south of at least Memphis. High pressure over the northern US was able to build south into the area.
That high pressure will dominate for the next two days. The city will be at the back edge of the ridge, which will mean a southerly flow and warming temperatures through the end of the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
Friday – Sunny skies continue, High 86, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 60
Friday – Abundant sunshine. High 88, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine and nice High 86, Low 58
Friday – Pleasant with brilliant sunshine High 87, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 58
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 83, Low 58
Sunny – Sunny. High 85, Low 59

Beautiful weather for the capitol city to end the week and to kick off the holiday weekend.

Cuba

Today’s trip around the world takes us to our nation’s nearest maritime neighbor, Cuba, which of course lies less than 100 miles south of the Florida Keys. Like many nations in the tropics, Cuba sees a seasonal variation in their thunderstorm activity based on the flow of the ITCZ. This is their rainy season, which also happens to correlate with hurricane season. Ah, the hurricanes. Cuba’s position at the mouth of the Gulf of Mexico and at the end of the Atlantic Basin path that most hurricanes take when they develop off the coast of Africa means that the island is frequently ravaged by tropical storms. It’s actually rare that the residents of Cuba don’t get hit by a hurricane at least once a summer. When they aren’t fending off hurricanes, the easterly trades of summer make Cuba an active island for thunderstorms, thanks again to it’s elongated position, perfectly oriented to intercept those winds, and have the elevation and required moisture to make every afternoon an adventure in thunderstorm dodging, particularly in the middle of the main island.
The Cubans have been scorned by much of the western world because of their dictator Fidel Castro and his communist state, however in an effort to get back in the good graces of the rest of the world and perhaps show his effective leadership (or something) Castro has sunk a lot of money into the sciences, most notably medical training and research. It should be no surprise, then, that the Instituto de Meteorologia appears to be relatively well funded. Most nations don’t have their own satellites or models from which to grab data, and the often pull from the United State’s ample resources, so given the current frosty relations between our nations, I was curious to see where they got their satellite data from. Sure enough, NASA, The University of Wisconsin and Intellicast, of all things. Under the Pronostico tab, the “para hoy” you will find today’s forecast. An interesting feature is that they show the picture of their forecasters which provides a little accountability, I suppose. Speaking of accountability, the entire roster of the Cuban Meteorology Service lists their e-mail address. Usually, I would e-mail the weather service to find out more about them, or at least inform them of the post. That said, I have personal experience forecasting for Cuba so I know I am mostly accurate on the details, and I don’t care to get flagged permanently by the FBI, so if you want to know more about the Cubans, by all means, e-mail away.

We have a hurricane (almost)

Tropical Storm Alex is churning in the Bay of Campeche and now appears destined to make landfall south of the Rio Grande, but near enough to the US that it will certainly cause some consternation. This system has been incredibly difficult to get a bead on. Early in it’s life cycle, it appeared as though the system would split the gap between the western tip of Cuba and the northern reach of the Yucatan, which would have allowed the storm to intensify rapidly before making a land fall somewhere in the eastern Gulf Coast.
Next, after model guidance had a better handle on it’s directionality, there were questions about how the storm would hold together as it crossed the Yucatan. It appeared that he would be able to maintain enough circulation that he wouldn’t send too much thunderstorm activity north into the central Gulf Coast. Well, Alex tracked over Belize and the southern, wider part of the Yucatan and was almost pulled apart. Now weakened, it appeared Alex would trudge slowly across the southern Bay of Campeche and make landfall as a weak hurricane at most, if it was able to get organized.
Well, now it has taken a northerly turn and is taking its time across the Gulf, getting stronger and better organized as he goes. Right now, it seems as though he will make his landfall late Wednesday night or tomorrow morning. The way it’s gone so far, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his track shift a little bit further north and into Brownsville. Here is the official track at this time.

Too many storms

I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over the forecast period, avoiding any real severe weather due to the timing of the thunderstorms. Well, instead the storms came through in the middle of the day on Sunday and left a swath of damage in the Cleveland metro. There was a small tornado up in Ashtabula, but most of the damage was the result of straight line winds. The airport in Cleveland reported winds of over 40mph in the early evening. The Weather Channel, as seems to be usual lately, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Monday – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade: B

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