Our forecast today will be from Western New York, and what is becoming a recent favorite, Elmira. How will it go? Let’s find out.
At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There were a few lingering clouds leftover from the early morning in the valleys to the east, but generally the state of New York was quiet. Overall, flow aloft was rather dormant as well, however with summer time heating in full affect, even the slightest ripple will be cause for thunderstorm concern.
One such lower level disturbance will shoot from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into western New York by tomorrow evening. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, however after this little bundle of energy arrives in town, it will languish without any upper level support, meaning Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some drizzle in the area, however a developing system to the west will generate a substantial southerly flow, bringing with it some hot weather.
Tomorrow – Evening thunderstorms, High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers around, High 85, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 86, Low 50
Wednesday – Showers and a heavier t-storm; mostly cloudy and humid with the temperature near the record of 93 High 91, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 54
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms High 85, Low 70
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday. The model outputs are saying 90, which is what Accuweather (even MORE hurricanes!) is buying, but all the auxiliary data says that there isn’t a chance in heck they get quite that warm. We shall see. Below is a satellite littered with popcorn cumulus clouds.