Elmira, New York

Our forecast today will be from Western New York, and what is becoming a recent favorite, Elmira. How will it go? Let’s find out.

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There were a few lingering clouds leftover from the early morning in the valleys to the east, but generally the state of New York was quiet. Overall, flow aloft was rather dormant as well, however with summer time heating in full affect, even the slightest ripple will be cause for thunderstorm concern.
One such lower level disturbance will shoot from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into western New York by tomorrow evening. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, however after this little bundle of energy arrives in town, it will languish without any upper level support, meaning Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some drizzle in the area, however a developing system to the west will generate a substantial southerly flow, bringing with it some hot weather.
Tomorrow – Evening thunderstorms, High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers around, High 85, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 86, Low 50
Wednesday – Showers and a heavier t-storm; mostly cloudy and humid with the temperature near the record of 93 High 91, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 54
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms High 85, Low 70

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday. The model outputs are saying 90, which is what Accuweather (even MORE hurricanes!) is buying, but all the auxiliary data says that there isn’t a chance in heck they get quite that warm. We shall see. Below is a satellite littered with popcorn cumulus clouds.

A sad Father’s Day for northwestern Minnesota

Statistics are still being parsed, but it appears a tornado outbreak on that day was the most prolific in the history of the state. The towns of Wadena, Mentor, Algora and Kiester will never be the same. Several other towns were struck, though Wadena, a regionally important city of about 4500 was devastated, and there were deaths in Mentor, Algora and near Kiester.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune had an excellent piece on this Father’s Day about Wes Michaels, the man who lost his life in Mentor, which is in the northwestern corner of Minnesota, who died protecting his daughter at the gas station he owned.
The article is poignant and sad, however his death underscored a danger highlighted by these storms. Weather services across three states, the Dakotas and Minnesota, did an excellent job giving people proper warning. The city of Wadena, for example, had 36 minutes between the time the sirens went off and the tornado sweeping into town. Michaels was watching The Weather Channel (reportedly a favorite of his) and actually had time to drive to the gas station to ensure the safety of his daughter and customers, ushering them into the freezer.
This is the problem that was exposed by the storms. The three deaths that occurred were because of unsafe places of refuge. The other two were killed when their mobile homes were tossed. The safest place to endure such weather is always below ground. Wes Michaels couldn’t get there, but found the next safest place, and there were 4 other people in that freezer that are alive to thank him for that.
Hopefully we won’t have to hear any more tragedies like this on this Father’s Day, however there is a dangerous situation setting up again today, this time through South Dakota and Nebraska, with most of the states under the gun. Here’s hoping YOU have a happy Father’s Day, no matter what the weather may be.

As hot as expected

El Paso lies west of the dry line, as Anthony mentioned on Thursday. They get nothing but scalding heat, a good toasty dry heat almost every day through the summer. The past two days were no different, with the highs dancing about 100, and the lows not cooling off enough for a northerner to sleep, that’s for sure. Victoria Weather and the Weather Channel tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday, High 103, Low 68
Saturday, High 102, Low 76

Grade: B

Visalia, California

Visalia, CA is found on the eastern side of CA’s Central Valley, nestled up against the Sierra Nevada. Very picturesque scenery is abound there, as I’ve driven past Visalia a few times in the past during trips between L.A. and Fresno. Will the rest of this weekend bring more nice weather?

In Visalia, CA at 11:55 A.M. PDT, the temperature was 72 degrees under sunny skies. Normally around this time of year we’re used to an upper ridge of high pressure spending most of it’s time out along the West Coast, kicking any frontal systems off towards the Pacific Northwest and further north, keeping CA pretty much bone dry. However, there’s currently an upper level trough sitting over the Western US and will slowly push its way eastward over the next few days. However, there aren’t many clouds, let alone precipitation, associated with this trough. The main upper low is found up in Washington and Oregon, keeping that portion of the West in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Down in Visalia, only a few high clouds were pushing through the area earlier, and should be a fairly pleasent day there today. The next couple of days look to be more of the same with the upper trough continuing its sloth-like pace towards the east. At least it’s keeping the temperatures from getting too terribly high!

Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 89, Low 56.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 55.

AW: Sunday: Sunny. High 83, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 88, Low 56.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 57.

We see most of CA being nice and clear at this time, with clouds bringing showers up in Oregon and Idaho.

The Week Ahead 6/20/10 – 6/26/10

This is a strange looking map. We’re staying off the coasts, unless you count Lake Erie, and we’re heading to places like Idaho and New Mexico. Odd.

Monday – Elmira, New York
Wednesday – Road Trip from Toledo, Ohio to Rochester, Minnesota.
Thursday – Lewiston, Idaho
Friday – Las Cruces, New Mexico
Saturday – Cleveland, Ohio

El Paso, Texas to Lawton, Oklahoma

Just a one day journey today, headed to Lawton, perhaps the only site that you can get to in one day from El Paso. It’s a 655mile drive that will actually take us about 9 1/2 hours. IF you do the math, that’s a 68.5mph average, telling you all you need to know about the terrain we will be covering.

The drive will be extremely warm, with temperatures in the neighborhood of 100 degrees in El Paso and not much cooler through west Texas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 90s all the way through the drive. The dry line will set itself up along the Texas/New Mexico border, but its associated storms won’t go up until around 4 or 5 in the afternoon, and by that time we’ll be between Abilene and Wichita Falls, well away from any inclement weather. Hot and dry will be the name of this long, steamy drive.

The Marine Layer

The cold water off the Pacific Coast often leads to some early morning low clouds and fog. If conditions are just right, that drear can last well into the day. On particularly aggressive days, it can find it’s way across San Francisco Bay into Oakland. It did not during our forecast period, and the range of temperatures was wider for the duration of the period. Highs were warmer, lows were cooler and most of us were thrown. Accuweather correctly predicted the sunny weather and had a good forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 75, Low 49
Thursday -High 73, Low 51

Grade: A

El Paso, Texas

Off to El Paso, pretty much the westernmost point in Texas. But at least it’s not a far walk to get some authentic Pesos!

At 6:51 MDT, the temperature was 98 degrees with just a few clouds in the area. Tis the season for hot and dry weather over the Desert area of the Southern U.S., where temperatures often creep up towards triple digits. In fact, including today, 10 of the 17 days so far in June have hit 98 or higher. Also, most people don’t realize El Paso is at 3,740 feet above sea level. Often times during the summer heating, thunderstorms like to kick off over west TX/east NM over the plateau when upsloping winds like to get the atmosphere riled up. For El Paso, however, most of this activity is usually well enough off to the east for them not to have to worry about it. For the next couple of days, that looks to be the case as the dryline continues to linger over west-central TX and the monsoon hasn’t quite kicked into full gear yet. Friday has a slightly better chance at seeing a rogue thunderstorm, but either way, probably unlikely they’ll see anything but continued heat.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 103, Low 74.
Saturday: Sunny. High 101, Low 76.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 101, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 98, Low 74.

NWS: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 99, Low 72.

WB: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 72.

Here we see some of the thunderstorms going off over the high plains area of western TX, but nothing really back towards El Paso. And back in NW AZ, you can see the Grand Canyon even! Amazing!

Heat Index

With the official start of Summer just a few days away, and kids across the country enjoying a couple of months with nothing to worry about, another meteorological danger lurks about that not many people really pay attention to. Temperatures will continue to be heating up over the country, along with more humid conditions, leading to heat indicies often soaring over 100. The Heat Index is the apparent temperature felt by a human in hot conditions, much like how the Wind Chill does the opposite for cold conditions. Some minimum requirements must be met, however, for a Heat Index to be calculated, and those being:

1) Actual temperature is above 80F
2) Dew Point is higher than 54F
3) Relative humidity is higher than 40%

Once the Heat Index gets above 100F, dire consequences can result of prolonged activity outside without seeking occasional relief in shade, air conditioning, or replenished fluids. Recently i was in Las Vegas when it was 106F (the day before it was 110F, the earliest Sin City had ever reached 110F), but even though it felt blistering hot when I stepped outside, I’ve encountered far worse conditions living in NC. Countless days during the summer there I would go outside to get the mail in the middle of a 94-degree day with a 72-degree dew point. Those numbers equate to a 104 heat index, which is perilously close to the Danger Zone (no, not the Kenny Loggins hit). In this zone, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are quite possible if one doesn’t seek relief, and continued exposure can lead to heat stroke (which I myself have nearly been a victim of). In the “Absolutely Ridiculous” department, the world record was set back on July 8, 2003 in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, when the temperature topped out at 108. More incredibly, the dew point was 95F, which calculates to a mind-numbing 172F!
So this summer when you’re out at family picnics, baseball games, or a nice 6-mile run outdoors, be sure to keep cool and plenty of fluids nearby and you’ll have a great summer! Stay safe readers!

Cote d’Ivoire

Cote d’Ivoire is also known as the Ivory Coast in English, and lies in West Africa north of the Gulf of Guinea. As with many countries in that part of the world, Cote d’Ivoire is a hot and humid nation, owing more to its position near the equator than to it’s position along the Atlantic. The southern part of the country is rainier, as it finds itself in the ITCZ for a greater part of the year. The rainy season is in the Northern Hemisphere’s summer months.
Cote d’Ivoire, a home of recent unrest, doesn’t have a website for their Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, the governing body for weather in that fin African nation. This may, of course, be the last time we feature a country whose national soccer team played in the World Cup on the same day, so savor this moment.

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