The Weather Blog

The week ahead: 5/20/12-5/26/12

Ryan — Fri, 18 May 2012 16:44:55 +0000

After several weeks filled to the brim with forecasts, we are looking at a quieter week ahead. With Memorial Day forthcoming, there are other things to discuss!

Tuesday: Akron, Ohio; Road Trip from Barnstable, Massachusetts to Akron
Thursday: Road Trip from Lima, Ohio to Naples, Florida
Friday: Lansing, Michigan.

The heat is on

Ryan — Fri, 18 May 2012 16:32:28 +0000

A ridge moving through the northern Rockies went kaput as it moved into the Plains, which means that there was good source of forcing for warm air to move into the center of the country. Take a look at the forecast highs for the day:

90s all the way into Minnesota and the Dakotas! Furthermore, since the pattern died over the west, the remnant southerly flow is from the southwest, which means that lower level flow bringing warm air to the Upper Midwest is bringing warm DRY air to the Upper Midwest. Take a peek at the 850mb winds (i.e., not far above the surface):

And I said earlier, the upper level pattern has gone flat. There are expected to be a few showers and storms across the area tomorrow, which will keep temperatures down, but the 80s won't go away for good until the middle of next week.

Hard to argue with weather like this.

Ryan — Fri, 18 May 2012 16:13:02 +0000

If there was a problem with the weather in Corvallis lately, it was that the winds really picked up Thursday evening. Additionally, clear skies probably were a problem for residents of western Oregon unaccustomed to seeing the sun. Sun burn! Victoria-Weather notched the top forecast, by a hair.
Actual: Wednesday - High 78, Low 48
Thursday - High 66, Low 42

Grade: B

On the Warm Side

Anthony — Fri, 18 May 2012 05:48:32 +0000

Most of the forecasts for Charlottesville had them getting warmer on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, but the main issue were the low temperatures being significantly warmer than expected. Also, over an inch of rain fell on Tuesday, which everybody had forecasted, but probably not to that degree. The sites were pretty split on whether or not they would see precip on Wednesday and they did wind up reporting 0.01" in the early morning, most likely due to dense fog at the time as opposed to a rain shower. The Weather Channel took home the top spot on the strength of their warmer low temperature forecast.

Tuesday: 1.02" of rain. High 83, Low 67.
Wednesday: 0.01" of rain, mostly in dense fog. High 85, Low 63.

Battle Creek, Michigan

Anthony — Thu, 17 May 2012 18:25:27 +0000

We're well into spring now and temperatures are rising over the Northern US! Will Michigan be a lucky recipient of these pleasant temperatures?

At 1253pm EDT, the temperature at Battle Creek, MI was 65 degrees under fair skies. An area of high pressure sitting over the Great Lakes region the last couple of days is being pushed off to the east, but will continue to keep the weather very nice for the rest of today and tonight. A bit of a warm front is lifting through the Upper Midwest and has already kicked off a few showers over MN and WI. Luckily, this activity should remain over Upper Michigan and northern parts of Lower Michigan during the morning Friday as it lifts through, keeping the Battle Creek area dry. This will usher in some warmer temperatures into Saturday as well, along with some possible gusty winds Saturday afternoon/evening. Overall, should be a pretty nice weekend in Lower Michigan!

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 45.
Saturday: Sunny. High 85, Low 54.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 78, Low 47.
Saturday: Continued sunny. High 84, Low 53.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 48.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 84, Low 55.

NWS: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 47.
Saturday: Sunny. High 83, Low 54.

WB: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny. High 83, Low 54.

Here we see fairly clear skies over Lower Michigan at this time. The shower activity over central MN and northern WI should stay off to the north Friday and remain a nice weekend!

Cleveland, Tennessee

Ryan — Thu, 17 May 2012 04:49:52 +0000

Southeastern Tennessee can be active this time of year, and rather difficult to forecast for.

At 1100pm, Cleveland was seeing temperatures in the mid-60s with clear skies. General instability was leading to the importation of moisture through the Carolinas, but it was well staunched by the Smokey Mountains, keeping Cleveland dry.
The upper level pattern features a weak trough, though a jet over the Gulf will lift north into the southeastern United States. The moist flow now coming off the Gulf, as well as some warm temperatures over eastern Tennessee may provide enough instability for afternoon thunderstorms in Cleveland each of the next two days.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, a few afternoon storms, High 85, Low 60
Friday - Carbon copy of tomorrow, mostly sunny, with some isolated storms late, High 85, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow - Isolated T-Storms high 85, Low 57
Friday - Isolated T-Storms, High 82, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and pleasantly warm High 84, Low 54
Friday - Intervals of clouds and sun with an afternoon and evening shower or thunderstorm high 82, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, high 85, Low 56
Friday - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 58

WB: tomorrow - Mostly sunny. high 85, Low 56
Friday - Sunny in the morning...then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 85, Low 59

Unfortunately, there is no recording station at Cleveland, but we will still be sure to check the weather when the forecast is expired. Here is an overnight fog satellite that doesn't tell us about Cleveland, but it's sort of cool and I have never used it before.

A mystery

Ryan — Thu, 17 May 2012 04:08:30 +0000

In Decatur, Alabama, there weren't many surprised on Monday, with some thunderstorms through the afternoon, keeping temperatures down. Tuesday morning is where the mystery arises. There was .01 inches of accumulation recorded, however there were no reports of rain, and skies were clear at the time. I'm baffled! I won't punish anyone for not having it in, because it's so suspicious. Even more suspicious, this leads to a Victoria-Weather victory. Shenanigans!
Actuals: Monday - .47 inches of rain, High 73, Low 62
Tuesday - .01 inches of rain?!?!?!?! High 79, Low 61

Grade: C

Charlottesville, Virginia to Corvallis, Oregon

Ryan — Wed, 16 May 2012 06:31:25 +0000

Are you up for a lengthy trip? Because this one is going to take 5 1/2 days, while covering 2885 miles. That will put us on a pace of 66.58mph. That means those first 5 days on the road will cover 532.7 miles. It's a lot of time in the car, so we had better get on the road!

DAY ONE

It seems like we will travel so much faster early in the trip, because we will cover so many more states. Larger states are the pits. Anyways, the beginning of the drive, from Virginia to West Virginia will be fine, but a cold front sliding south through the Ohio Valley will bring about some isolated thunderstorms, starting for us when we reach Lexington, Kentucky, and continuing west to Sulphur, Indiana, where we will stop for the night. Sulphur is in the far southern part of the Hoosier state, about a half hour west of Louisville.

DAY TWO
The day on Thursday will be quiet, which is nice, because St. Louis can be a challenge to drive through if the weather is suspect. Kansas City has never given me a problem, though. Nevertheless, neither esteemed city will be much issue during our second day of travel, which will end on the north side of St. Joseph, Missouri.

DAY THREE
The beginning of the drive on Friday will be similarly problem free. Driving through Lincoln is never an issue. We may begin to see a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as soon as we hit the Nebraska Panhandle, however, as a low is developing in the northern High Plains. It looks like it could be a doozy of a system for the Upper Midwest. Fortunately for us, it will just be the spotty isolated shower or storm after I-76 splits off from I-80 until we reach Egbert, Wyoming. Egbert!

DAY FOUR
The cold front associated with that area of low pressure will actually be hanging back in western Wyoming and northern Utah. It will turn into showers and thunderstorms west of Rock Springs. The thunderstorm threat will pick up around Evanston, where some heavy downpours are possible. The rain threat will essentially be at it's end when we reach Ogden, Utah, and our northwesterly turn towards Idaho will be dry. The day will end in Snowville, Utah, just short of Idaho.

DAY FIVE
Finally, the Pacific Northwest, where it's always dry and there is always sun. Wait, huh? Lately, every time we forecast out there it dry and pleasant. No different when we leave Snowville and head through Idaho and eastern Oregon. No problems whatsoever. The day will end in Blalock Canyon, Oregon, which is right by the Columbia River. Just a little bit more to go on a leisurely Sunday drive.

DAY SIX
Winds are going to pick up when we get to Portland and head south towards Corvallis. No rain, or issues that way, but keep both hands on the wheel on the way into the home of the Oregon State Beavers.

Corvallis, Oregon

Ryan — Wed, 16 May 2012 04:02:35 +0000

We were just in western Oregon last week for our forecast in Eugene. How has the weather changed in that time?

At 835PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with clear skies.The quiet weather over the area continued into mid-week, though the upper level flow had broken down over the weekend. A weak, undercutting trough in the northern Rockies was evidence of this, but there were no systems of note on the immediate horizon.
In about 36 hours, a sharp trough, though one with wak flow through it will move towards the West Coast. It isn't expected to funnel much moisture north towards the Pacific Northwest, as the trough in the Rockies will intercept any moisture. Still, a reduction in barometric pressure over the Western Cascades may lead to an increase in clouds for Corvallis.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 47
Thursday - Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly Sunny High 74, Low 47
Thursday - Sunny High 68, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and pleasantly warm High 75, Low 45
Thursday - Partly sunny and pleasant High 67, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny High 74, Low 46
Thursday - Partly sunny High 68, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 46
Thursday - Mostly cloudy in the morning...then partly cloudy. High 67, Low 44

Cooling off with those clouds on Thursday, but still, quite bearable for everyone, yes? Satellite is pretty quiet, yes?

Breaking free

Ryan — Wed, 16 May 2012 03:31:27 +0000

You couldn't have asked for two more different days in Atlanta than Sunday and Monday. Sunday didn't get out of the 60s, and they were inundated with more than an inch of rain. Temperatures exploded, however, on Monday, when Atlanta cleared out after a little bit of rain in the morning. They hit 80 with the sun, after not even touching 70 the day before. The outlet that was able to handle the bipolarity of the Atlanta weather was, in fact, Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Sunday - 1.28 inches of rain, High 69, Low 60
Monday - .01 inches of rain, High 80, Low 64

Grade: B