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San Jose, California

Today we visit San Jose, CA, coincidentally, the city where my best friend moved to last year! Let’s check in and see what the weather will be like for the next couple of days out there.

At 953pmPST, the temperature in San Jose, CA was 53 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. Its been quite the busy week in the area, with a couple of potent storms moving through and droping copious amounts of rain. It’s been enough to reduce the drought level in the immediate area from Severe to Moderate, however, there is still a long ways to go to get the region back from the multi-year drought they’re experiencing. Another strong low pressure system is starting to trek towards the West Coast, with a warm front pushing onshore over far Northern CA. Rain showers are spreading throughout N CA and W Oregon and are expected to spread far enough southward to give the San Jose are a few light showers late Wednesday morning. Activity will shift out of the area by the late afternoon, offering a bit of a reprieve. It won’t last long though, as the cold front associated with the low will shift into the area early Wednesday morning as the main low pressure area shifts towards Vancouver Island. Rain looks to last most of the day, dropping much higher amounts in the Bay Area than Wednesday’s bout.

Wednesday: Some morning showers, then clearing a bit. High 67, Low 51.
Thursday: Afternoon showers expected. High 69, Low 54.

TWC: Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of showers. High 69, Low 49.
Thursday: Afternoon showers. High 67, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: A bit of rain in the morning. High 68, Low 51.
Thursday: A little afternoon rain. High 69, Low 55.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of rain before 11am, then mostly cloudy. High 68, Low 49.
Thursday: Chance of showers throughout the day. High 65, Low 53.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of rain. High 68, Low 47.
Thursday: Chance of rain showers. High 66, Low 52.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 68, Low 50.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 66, Low 54.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 65, Low 51.
Thursday: Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 64, Low 52.

It’s dry in the San Jose area… for now. The next round of showers is currently makes its way onto the far Northern CA coast. Get those umbrellas handy!

SJCrad

EmBattled in Michigan

The clouds parted a bit early Sunday morning in Battle Creek, causing temperatures to drop a few degrees lower than most anticipated. Temperatures rebounded quite nicely on Monday, and the isolated showers that were forecast by some luckily avoided the area. Accuweather lived up to its name with a solid forecast.

Sunday: High 41, Low 19.
Monday: High 58, Low 39.
Forecast Grade: B

The Week Ahead 1/24/16 – 1/30/16

We have a very busy week on its way, filled with forecasts. You can believe that we will have a recap for the major event set to happen this weekend as well. Let’s see what’s on our docket.
map
Monday – Appleton, Wisconsin
Tuesday – Elmira, New York
Wednesday – Jackson, Mississippi; Road Trip from Elmira to Jackson
Thursday – Rochester, New York; Road trip from Jackson to Rochester
Friday – Warner Robins, Georgia
Saturday – Wichita, Kansas

Tropical Season Gets A Huge Head Start

Normally, Hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin starts on June 1 and finishes on November 30th. Every so often, a storm jumps the gun and gets going in May or lingers into December. Not entirely uncommon to see these rogue systems develop. However, a tropical storm developing in JANUARY? And intensify into a HURRICANE?!

Well, Alex decided to do just that. It developed as a subtropical system in the far western Atlantic and traveled almost due north. But instead of weakening, it actually intensified as it started picking up steam northward. Alex became the first hurricane on record to form in January since 1938, and actually developed a rather impressive looking eye.

HurricaneAlex

Other than affecting the Azores, Alex isn’t expected to really impact major populated areas. It certainly could be an interesting year if systems are already deciding to give it a go before Valentine’s Day comes around!

Palm Bay, Florida

Today we head off to Florida. Usually a good place to go in the midst of January, since you’re typically assured warm temps and fairly pleasant weather. Will that be the case this weekend?

At 1053pm EST, the temperature was 62 degrees in fog. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Gulf of Mexico and while it’s expected to be ill-defined as it shifts through the region tomorrow, it’ll still bring plentiful rainfall to the FL Peninsula. It should clear out by tomorrow evening, bringing a bit of a lull for Saturday morning. However, an area of low pressure looks to intensify over the Lower MS River Valley and quickly shift into the OH/TN valley. While rain will spread throughout the Southeast US, additional rain showers will be possible over the area, mainly in the very late evening hours. So while Saturday midday should be pleasant, an evening stroll might need an umbrella.

Friday: Scattered showers. High 77, Low 60.
Saturday: Scattered shwoers late. High 80, Low 61.

TWC: Friday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 76, Low 63.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, isolated showers. High 81, Low 64.

AW: Friday: Couple of morning showers. High 78, Low 63.
Saturday: Couple of thunderstorms. High 78, Low 64.

NWS: Friday: Chance of showers. High 78, Low 61.
Saturday: More showers. High 79, Low 61.

WB: Friday: Chance of showers. High 79, Low 60.
Saturday: Chance of storms. High 80, Low 60.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 79, Low 63.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 79, Low 61.

FIO: Friday: Light rain throughout the day. High 75, Low 62.
Saturday: Light rain until evening, starting again overnight. High 79, Low 65.

Here we see broad, light rain showers moving in over the Western FL coastline, and smaller more intense showers lingering well off the eastern coastline. More significant rain will sweep over the Peninsula over the weekend.
MLBrad

San Angelo, Texas

For once, we might be going to where the weather is the worst. What does San Angelo have in store for us?

At 1151, CT, San Angelo was reporting a temperature of 38 degrees with overcast skies. Scattered showers were generally found north of San Angelo, but there was a cell getting ready to work its way through town. A strong jet had dived down into northwestern Mexico, with a long plume of heavy rain running from Texas all the way to the Upper Ohio Valley, while there was a ripple of a wave in the strong base of the trough, creating some amplification and introducing cooler air over the Southern Plains.
Fortunately, sub freezing temperatures don’t look to be as significant a threat while it’s precipitating through the day today. That said, there will be threat for freezing rain as nearby as Abilene through the afternoon today, and in San Angelo, much of the day will be marked by rainfall. The impulse along the jet will shift to the northeast through the day tomorrow, which will carry much of the moisture into the Mississippi Valley, but it won’t do too much for temperatures. Surface low pressure will organized in the central Plains as the impulse shifts away, which means another slug of heavy rain before things wrap up, followed by drier and warmer conditions on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers High 46, Low 35
Monday – Clearing and warmer, High 58, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers 44, Low 32
Monday – AM Clouds/PM Sun, High 63, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer; a little morning rain followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon Hgh 46, Low 34
Monday – Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 62, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 47, Low 35
Monday – Partly sunny, High 60, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain Likely, High 47, Low 35
Monday – Partly cloudy, Not as cool 60, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Light Rain Likely High 46, Low 37
Monday – Partly Cloudy High 61, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 44, Low 36
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 60, Low 38

So obviously, it looks a little nasty. I’m going cooler than our rivals, because I see all the potential for cold advection coming from the north. Here is the radar, showing all those spotty showers
San Angelo

San Antonio Texas to Pensacola, Florida

It’s only one day from south Texas to the Florida Panhandle. San Antonio is about due west of Pensacola, but a little to the south. It’s an easier drive than it seems like it should be. Google tells us it will be a little shy of 10 ½ hours, covering 720 miles at about 69mph. That’s a hot pace. Let’s make our way through the Gulf Coast.

SanAntonio
It says this drive will be 10 ½ hours at a pace of nearly 70mph, but with our passage right through the heart of Houston, after starting in the heart of San Antonio, I have to find that a little hard to believe. We won’t have any issues with the radar, though, as we will be passing through the southern edge of a very strong ridge of high pressure that’s been parked over the center of the country. Here might be a little bit of onshore flow through southern Louisiana, but at worst, that will bean some high clouds. Really, it will be a good day to drive through the southern United States.
pensacola

Not as dense nor as cloudy

Colorado Springs position just to the east of the Front Range leaves the city prone to the whimsy of breezes, which can lead to significantly colder or warmer temperatures, depending on the direction they come from. When there is no wind, it’s a little easier to navigate. Alas, there was a breeze off the mountains on Thursday and Friday, as the dense dome of high pressure over the Plains was unable to exert it’s weight over Colorado Springs. The breeze, and quite a bit of sunlight, allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s oour forecast days. The lack of clouds was important, because it also allowed temperatures to plummet into the 30s. The issue was tat forecasters didn’t generally have the right forecast spread. Either they were too warm overnight or too cold during the day. Everyone except for Forecast.io that is. They crushed the competition, a victory for robots the world over.
Actuals: Thursday – High 68, Low 47
Friday – High 66, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Temperatures Not Only Thing Scorching the West

With El Nino continuing to intensify, more and more predictions of a soggy Winter for the Western US continue to be made. I moved to Los Angeles in the Summer of 1997, then got to experience the ridiculous El Nino-influenced winter of 97-98. It rained ALL. THE. TIME. Trust me, track practice then riding your bike home in the rain is not a fun time. Anyways, if this winter shakes out anything like that one did, hopefully we can put a dent into the epic drought that is plaguing the region.

However, we still actually have to GET to Winter for that to happen. In the meantime, the western US remains dry, and now, over the last couple of months, forest fires have been replicating with almost springtime bunny rabbit efficiency. The Pacific Northwest has taken the brunt of it, causing massive problems for the region. Air Quality Alerts encompass eastern WA, northeastern OR, all of western/northern ID, and the western half of MT. Also, look at this comparison from June 25 and August 23 of the area. From crystal clear to… um… yikes. One of my friends from NWS Missoula has sent me a few pictures of smoke-filled skies as well over the last several days. No wonder there’s so many AQA’s out for the region. Hopefully relief comes soon to the area and clears out the skies because prolonged periods of this poor of air quality can cause serious issues to people.

smokecomparison