Ah, March. This is the time of year that your various long term forecasters project the hurricane season. What are they saying this year? Oh, it’s going to be active, just like every other year. Well, except last year, but everyone still SAID it would be an active year. Let’s see what the Charlotte Observer has to say:
“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” says Joe Bastardi of Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather,
Because Joe Bastardi has never exaggerated the threat for anything before. The more telling of the quotes from the Observer (emphasis mine) is below:
Not all the forecasts are in. For example, the National Hurricane Center’s seasonal prediction won’t come until late May. And some forecasters plan to fine-tune their outlooks later this spring, when conditions become a bit clearer.
Besides, long-range hurricane forecasts have been unreliable in the past.
It’s tough to say. Right now, the Gulf of Mexico after a very chilly winter is quite cold. It’s hard to say how long it will be until tropical systems will be able to even move through the Gulf. It’s hard to say this early how many hurricanes there will be, or how active a season we are looking at. It’s dangerous to put a number on the hurricane outlook, especially when talking about how many storms will make landfall along the coast. Every hurricane is it’s own animal, and could just as easily miss land as make landfall every single time.
I’ve often said that anyone who says they can forecast past 10 days is full of it. sure, you can make predictions, but the accuracy is always going to be subject to more short term patterns. Mostly, it’s a way for people like Mr. Bastardi to get his name in the paper, and he can get a feather in his cap on the off chance he gets one of his forecasts right.
All morning, The Weather Channel has been bringing up the new health care bill being signed into law in their half hourly updates. Far be it from me to ignore the popular trend in meteorology. Here is the Victoria-Weather meteorological take on the signing.
Temperature was about 75 degrees, perhaps warmer with all the radiative warming with the crowd in there.
Ceilings were at 15 to 20 feet.
Winds were light and variable (I assume the air conditioner was on).
Most of the country has been enjoying some great weather the past few days. There have been 60s and 70s across most of the country lately, melting the snow and thawing things out for a nation that has been cold and snowy for months. It’s been great.
As you can see by The Weather Channel’s temperature map, things are about to change for almost everyone. That’s a 30 degree drop on either side of the cold front from Chicago to Minneapolis, and 25 degrees as far south as Oklahoma City to Amarillo. Those of you that have enjoyed this Springtime resurgence, I’m sad to say we will be reverting to a bit of winter for a few days.
If you read the Columbus verification carefully, you’ll note that I mentioned that Friday’s high was 66. This took a dynamic system in the Gulf to import a boatload of warm air under a thick layer of clouds. Since the winds changed and they have remained cloudy, the Columbus area hasn’t reached 60 since. Much further to the northwest in Minneapolis (we cover Minneapolis like the Weather Channel covers Atlanta) the city that had been immersed in clouds broke out for most of the day. It was 65 in Minneapolis.
It’s not difficult meteorological theory to say that the sun makes things warmer, but through most of the winter at our latitude in northern Minnesota a clear sky wasn’t a guarantee of warmer air. Now with a better sun angle, no more snow pack and a lack of a bitter northerly wind, a sunny day can mean a spike in temperatures. I apologize to those in Columbus (and those in St. Louis who didn’t even see 50 on Sunday) for being cool and cloudy, but your plight helped illustrate a sure sign that Spring is on it’s way. And Spring IS on it’s way.