Category Archives: Verification

Protected by mountains

Anchorage looked to be in line for a rather nasty couple of days, however the elevation around the Cook Inlet kept all that nasty weather out of the city. In the end, they ended up with only a bit of rain overnight from Monday to Tuesday, and cloudy skies all around. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast, and I couldn’t be prouder.
Actuals: Monday – Rain observed, but not measured, High 45, low 39
Tuesday – Rain observed but not measured, High 44, Low 36

Grade: C

Way too dry

I had mentioned that Youngstown was going to see an area of high pressure stanch the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico north to their neck of the woods. As it so happens, this had a greater influence on the forecast than I had originally prognosticated. The low temperatures, unchecked by moisture on Saturday, plummeted to the upper 20s, and the cold front passed through yesterday completely dry. In the end, there was a three way tie at the top, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Bug.
Actuals: Saturday – High 63, Low 28
Sunday – High 66, Low 42

Grade B

Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works!

Accuweather has… not been good for the past year and a half. Their two day forecasts are often divergent from the consensus, and they pay for it. Perhaps they are too busy drawing up hurricane forecasts for 2018. Today, however, their divergent forecast wasn’t so divergent, and verified as the best in Bridgeport! They correctly foresaw the cool Friday and slightly warmer Saturday, but most importantly, they tied with us for the top. Congratulations, Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – .23 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A

Record Warmth

I mentioned in Salisbury‘s forecast that they had a chance at some record warmth for both days. Well, they tied it on Tuesday, the 88 matching what they got back in 1929. They nearly matched the feat on Wednesday as well, when they fell just 1 degree short of the record for that date. TWC narrowly edged out VicWx for the top spot, albeit everybody was a good amount off in the temperatures as it’s a little difficult to predict two straight days of near-record warmth.

Thursday: High 88 (T-1929 record), Low 56.
Friday: High 88, Low 67.

Forecast grade: D

Nicer than SoCal

When Anthony put together his forecast for Rome on Sunday, he mentioned that I was off in sunny southern California. it wasn’t exactly WARM southern California. Temperatures in Rome reached the upper 80s for each day of the forecast period, making it an all together toasty experience in northern Georgia to begin April. Accuweather came through with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 87, Low 52
Tuesday, High 88, Low 50

Grade: A

Sunshine State Holds True

The Gainesville forecast had plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Some dense fog develops early Thursday morning and burned off shortly after sunrise, but kept morning low a couple degrees higher than most people had. All told, VicWx and TWC finished in a tie for 1st. AW didn’t live up to their moniker, once again, and brought up the rear. Apologies for the delay in the verification, there was a glitch in the system. No worries, it’s been fixed!

Thursday: High 84, Low 47.
Friday: High 85, Low 48.

Forecast Grade: A

High Pressure Continues

The large scale ridge over the Eastern US continued it’s stranglehold over the region, forcing the upper-level trough into Canada. As Ryan had mentioned, clouds were on the increase, but no precip was able to come close to Altoona over the last couple of days. TWC came out on top thanks to their slightly cooler temperatures.

Saturday: High 75, Low 51.
Sunday: High 70, Low 51.

Forecast Grade: A

Tobacco Road Success

Ryan’s forecast for Greensboro had low temperatures a good few degrees warmer than most everybody else. Turns out, that’s what propelled him to a victory for his weekend forecast! Can Duke duplicate this success in tomorrow’s title game vs. Butler? If he could forecast that as accurately as his Greensboro temperatures, Ryan would be vacationing in Vegas right now instead of the West Coast.

Friday: High 87, Low 51.
Saturday: High 80, Low 56.

Forecast Grade: B

Where was the warm air?

Denver can be a difficult place to forecast for, as they were over the past couple of days. Things were about 10 degrees cooler than expected on Wednesday, and then didn’t drop much (1 degree) on Thursday. They avoided any and all precipitation, which made this all and all a very poor forecast. Actually, I’ll BE in Denver in about 6 hours with a layover! Hopefully the forecasts are better today.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 63, Low 41
Thursday – High 62, Low 35

Grade: D

Springtime Warm Up

Elizabethtown was in line for a warm up as an area of high pressure established itself over the southeast. They got it, as temperatures climbed from the mid-60s to the upper 70s on Wednesday. One fly in the ointment was the temperatures Tuesday morning, which dipped all the way to 33, thanks to the clear skies over night. The Weather Service had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 33
Wednesday -High 77, Low 43

Grade: A