Category Archives: Verification

Soggy Weekend

The system that Ryan mentioned heading for Jackson did pretty much as advertised, bringing a couple bouts of storms to the region Friday and Saturday. Friday saw a couple heavy thunderstorms roll through the area, with gusts upwards of 40mph and dumping over an inch and a half of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures far lower than most people thought on Saturday, leading the way for TWC to take the top spot. Seems like they can forecast for everywhere except right outside their own building lately.

Friday: 1.65″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 91, Low 73.
Saturday: 0.21″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 84, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B

Showing no fear

I had made a comment about forecasting for Billings that inferred that such a forecast would be difficult. Oh, how wrong I was. Well, that is if you ask The Weather Channel, who had 0 problem with executing a nearly flawless forecast. There was a dash of rain on Friday that threw everything off a bit, but otherwise, it was like they had no idea they were forecasting for the High Plains.
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 54
Friday – .01 inches of precip, High 79, Low 60

Grade: B

Sweaty St. Louis

St. Louis got under a warm front yesterday, causing temperatures to climb all the way to 96 with dew points well into the 70s. They had to pay their dues on Wednesday though, before those temperatures spiked to tropical levels. They saw three quarters of an inch of rain as that front passed through town on Wednesday and even then, temperatures were still in the Mid-90s. Such is summer in Saint Louis. Weatherbug had the top forecast in the STL.
Actuals: Wednesday – .74 inches of rain, High 94, Low 74
Thursday – High 96, Low 75

Grade: B

In their own backyard

As mentioned at no end, Atlanta is the home of the Weather Channel. One may expect them to take care of the forecast, especially with the way they have been forecasting lately, but NO. No. It was us, Victoria-Weather who absolutely dominated in the ATL.
Actuals: Monday – High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain, High 91, Low 73

Grade: A

The Monroe Doctrine

Sure, you can forecast all the dry air that you want in the southern US this time of year, but eventually, there will be scattered thunderstorms and one of them is bound to clip whatever town you are forecasting for. This was true in Monroe and our forecast from Saturday, where everyone said the chance for thunderstorms was low, but still slipped them in the forecast, because we all know better. In fact, a quarter inch of rain fell just before noon yesterday validating the mutually held concerns. The Weather Channel had the best forecast (again) thanks to their temperature forecast.

Actuals: Sunday – High 96, Low 76
Monday – .25inches of rain, High 92, Low 76

Grade: A

A diamond in the rough

When forecasting for Wausau, there was one clear superior force in an otherwise mediocre forecast, and that was The Weather Channel, who nailed the top forecast thanks in large part to one thing: Sunday’s high. Things never warmed up yesterday in northern Wisconsin, as widespread clouds and drizzle dominated the region in the wake of some early morning thunderstorms. Everyone across the Midwest was anticipating temperatures that lingered more in the low to mid 80 range when they couldn’t even climb past 78. Well done, TWC.
Saturday: .02 inches of rain, High 85, Low 64
Sunday: .18 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A

Absent showers

The cold front moved a tad slower through the Northeast than expected, with the scattered showers and thunderstorms managing to miss the New London area. Temperatures inched upwards slightly on Saturday and remained dry. TWC and WB tied for the win with their warmer and dry Saturday forecast.

Friday: High 85, Low 69.
Saturday: High 88, Low 73.

Forecast grade: B

Well, I was right

I said at the time I was forecasting for the beautiful Napa Valley that I wasn’t quite sure why everyone was going so much warmer than models indicated. They had stayed cooler than average, which is what the models were saying again on Sunday when the forecast was issued. Believe it or not, they stayed fairly cool again, which I TRIED to tell you people. It stayed even cooler than what I had thought. Summer will come to California some day.

Actuals: Monday – High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – High 75, low 56

Grade B

No relief

There was hope that a few clouds and some storms in Winchester, and for that matter, the rest of the east coast, would cool things off over the past couple of days. Unfortunately, the storms never came, and it remained very warm in Winchester. 99 hot degrees on Thursday and only a few degrees cooler on Friday. The Weather Channel had the toasty forecast mostly correct and had the top spot. The hot seat, in this case.
Actuals: Thursday – High 99, Low 71
Friday – High 92, Low 75

Grade C

Summertime Swings

As expected, the front shifted through Cheyenne late in the day on Tuesday, bringing a few light showers Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with the stronger thunderstorms developing not too far off to the east of the city. However, what wasn’t expected, was the degree of the temperature drop-off on Wednesday. Most of us were pretty close on the low temperature Wednesday morning, but… it never recovered. Overcast skies kept Cheyenne particularly chilly Wednesday, never making it out of the mid 50’s, an impressive 27-degree drop from Tuesday. Victoria Weather nabbed the top spot, with WB and AW bringing up the rear with their relatively sultry and dry Wednesday predictions.

Tuesday: 0.02 in rain showers. High 81, Low 49.
Wednesday: another 0.02 in rain showers. High 54, Low 49.
Forecast grade: C