Category Archives: Verification


Fun facts: The two highs I had forecast in Reno matched the highs I had forecast in Naples. They also matched what happened over the weekend in Reno. Nice! The low Saturday was also a perfect match, and the Sunday low was off by only a degree. That’s a quality forecast for a quality town from Victoria Weather. (Had it been a bad forecast, the headline would have been ‘Reno 911’)
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 58
Sunday – High 91, Low 55

Grade: A

Forecasting is easy

When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly saw that there was only 1 degree of error for the entire 2 day period. The high only hit 90 in Naples yesterday (only) which was shy of the 91 I had in there. Victory seemed to be a in the bag, but Accuweather went ahead and had a perfect temperature forecasts. Those rascals. The dry day on Thursday was the only thing that caused Accuweather any problems.
Actuals: Wednesday – .65 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday – High 90, Low 77

Grade: A

Record Heat

The forecasts for Gainesville had them a couple degrees below record heat for both days, with the threat of a stray shower or thunderstorm keeping them from reaching those levels. However, Mother Nature would not be denied as Tuesday saw a new record high and Wednesday tying the old record set back in the 80s. A brief thunderstorm did move overhead on Wednesday, but this midweek heat will stay with them for a while, or at least in the record books. TWC again edged out the competition to take home the win, with AW bringing up the pack once more.

Tuesday: New record high of 98, Low 77.
Wednesday: 0.03″ of rain in a thunderstorm, Tied-record high of 97, Low 75.
Forecast grade: B

The fickle monsoon

As suspected, the weather in Salt Lake City was largely dictated by a typically monsoonal flow. A HOT monsoonal flow. There was an unexpected splash of rain on Monday that threw off some precipitation forecasts and knocked the high down a few degrees. Dry air allowed the low temperature to register a full 10 degrees cooler than some had forecast on Tuesday. Salt Lake was a typically difficult mountain forecast that the Weather Service came in on top with, solely because they were the only ones to even hit at rain on Monday.
Actuals – Monday – trace or rain, High 96, Low 70
Tuesday – Thunderstorms reported but not measured, High 94, Low 64

Grade: C

Soggy Weekend

The system that Ryan mentioned heading for Jackson did pretty much as advertised, bringing a couple bouts of storms to the region Friday and Saturday. Friday saw a couple heavy thunderstorms roll through the area, with gusts upwards of 40mph and dumping over an inch and a half of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures far lower than most people thought on Saturday, leading the way for TWC to take the top spot. Seems like they can forecast for everywhere except right outside their own building lately.

Friday: 1.65″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 91, Low 73.
Saturday: 0.21″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 84, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B

Showing no fear

I had made a comment about forecasting for Billings that inferred that such a forecast would be difficult. Oh, how wrong I was. Well, that is if you ask The Weather Channel, who had 0 problem with executing a nearly flawless forecast. There was a dash of rain on Friday that threw everything off a bit, but otherwise, it was like they had no idea they were forecasting for the High Plains.
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 54
Friday – .01 inches of precip, High 79, Low 60

Grade: B

Sweaty St. Louis

St. Louis got under a warm front yesterday, causing temperatures to climb all the way to 96 with dew points well into the 70s. They had to pay their dues on Wednesday though, before those temperatures spiked to tropical levels. They saw three quarters of an inch of rain as that front passed through town on Wednesday and even then, temperatures were still in the Mid-90s. Such is summer in Saint Louis. Weatherbug had the top forecast in the STL.
Actuals: Wednesday – .74 inches of rain, High 94, Low 74
Thursday – High 96, Low 75

Grade: B

In their own backyard

As mentioned at no end, Atlanta is the home of the Weather Channel. One may expect them to take care of the forecast, especially with the way they have been forecasting lately, but NO. No. It was us, Victoria-Weather who absolutely dominated in the ATL.
Actuals: Monday – High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain, High 91, Low 73

Grade: A

The Monroe Doctrine

Sure, you can forecast all the dry air that you want in the southern US this time of year, but eventually, there will be scattered thunderstorms and one of them is bound to clip whatever town you are forecasting for. This was true in Monroe and our forecast from Saturday, where everyone said the chance for thunderstorms was low, but still slipped them in the forecast, because we all know better. In fact, a quarter inch of rain fell just before noon yesterday validating the mutually held concerns. The Weather Channel had the best forecast (again) thanks to their temperature forecast.

Actuals: Sunday – High 96, Low 76
Monday – .25inches of rain, High 92, Low 76

Grade: A

A diamond in the rough

When forecasting for Wausau, there was one clear superior force in an otherwise mediocre forecast, and that was The Weather Channel, who nailed the top forecast thanks in large part to one thing: Sunday’s high. Things never warmed up yesterday in northern Wisconsin, as widespread clouds and drizzle dominated the region in the wake of some early morning thunderstorms. Everyone across the Midwest was anticipating temperatures that lingered more in the low to mid 80 range when they couldn’t even climb past 78. Well done, TWC.
Saturday: .02 inches of rain, High 85, Low 64
Sunday: .18 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A