Category Archives: Verification

A tough dry forecast

In my opinion, when you are forecasting for a place like Alexandria, it’s a tough sell discounting the threat for thunderstorms when it’s not the middle of winter. Yet Anthony and all four of our counterparts did just that for Wednesday, which paid off as Alexandria had a steamy but dry day. Weatherbug ended up with the top forecast, owing their quality precip forecast and their top notch temperatures, especially on Thursday.

Actuals: Wednesday – High 94, Low 73
Thursday – High 92, Low 72

Grade: A

Killed in Billings

A developing front over Billings ended up developing a little bit stronger and later than anticipated in Billings. I knew we were in trouble when we got to the road trip on Thursday when the models were putting down more than a light sprinkle like it looked like it would be on Wednesday when we forecast. Friday was particularly dreary, with almost a tenth of an inch of rain and rain that refused to climb out of the mid-50s. The Weather Service had the least bad forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 78, Low 48
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 56, Low 37

Grade: D

It’s in the 90s somewhere

That somewhere is certainly Lawton, Oklahoma, where temperatures reached that lofty level each of the past two days. On Tuesday, there was a brief little thunderstorm that moved through in the afternoon, but the airport in town only reported a hundredth of rain. Accuweather had the best forecast, but everyone was in the same neighborhood, and there wasn’t much separating the top from the bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 94, Low 69
Wednesday – High 93, Low 71

Grade: B

Correct on the clouds

Most forecasters for Longview tried to claim that the city would be pleasant and clear through the forecast period. One forecaster, we at Victoria-Weather, forecast the cloudy days correctly and our cooler temperature forecasts benefit. The Weather Service was cool as well, however, despite their partly sunny sky forecasts, and narrowly edged u out.
Actuals: Monday – High 73, Low 56
Tuesday – High 73, Low 53

Grade: A

So much for that front

Montgomery was awaiting the arrival of a weak late season front that all forecasters expected, at the very least, to knock temperatures down a few degrees. So much for that. Instead, the boundary came through and introduced clear skies and slightly drier weather that allowed temperatures to keep climbing all the way up to 99 degrees yesterday. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the city, though they were too chilly (if you can call 93 chilly) as well.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of precip, High 96, Low 74
Sunday – High 99, Low 72

Grade: C

Bipolar temperatures

When things are dry, as they were in Provo the past couple of days, temperatures can fluctuate wildly through a day. On Tuesday, Provo saw temperatures bottom out at 41, then climb during the day to 86, a 45 degree spread. Egads. Things were a little bit more stable on Wednesday, when there was some moisture and even a thunderstorm in the area, and the high was only 24 degrees warmer than the low. The Weather Service and Victoria-Weather topped ’em all with the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 41
Wednesday – Thunderstorm reported, precipitation not measured, High 84, Low 60

Grade: C

Sweltering Summer Finish

Labor Day unofficially marks the end of summer, with kids going back to school, trees begin the fall change up north, and wearing white becomes a fashion faux pas. Down in Midland, however, clear skies gave way to temps in the mid to upper 90’s each day as subsidence outside of Tropical Store Hermine kept things quiet. The Weather Channel continued their winning ways on the strength of a warm Sunday forecast.

Sunday: High 97, Low 65.
Monday: High 95, Low 70.
Forecast Grade: B

Fall arrives quickly

Altoona was a few degrees warmer than anyone expected. Nevertheless, when a cold front passed through town on Friday, temperatures did drop by 20 degrees or so. Behind the front, gusty winds on the order f almost 30mph were the story. Victoria-Weather, on the strength of our low temperature forecasting had the top results in Altoona, but the real winners were residents, as high temperatures never dropped below 70.
Actuals: Friday – Rain detected, not measured, High 90, Low 61
Saturday – High 70, Low 54

Grade: B


I had mentioned the pressing area of cool high pressure and the threat for increasing clouds in Laredo, but I discounted the threat for rain. I was a fool! The rain did come, much to the chagrin of ourselves and Accuweather, but even more surprisingly, temperatures about 12 degrees cooler than expected came into town, thanks to those clouds on Friday. The Weather Service was the closest, though not great on this one.

Good for you, Optimists

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn’t turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 50
Wednesday – High 76, Low 59

Grade: C