Category Archives: Verification

Monterey Bay Victory

Anthony came back from vacation and immediately forecast for Santa Cruz, right in the state he had recently departed from. He certainly knew what he was doing, as he ended up with the top forecast for the city. There was a small dose of light rain showers on Thursday, but Santa Cruz ended up with a pleasant couple of days in the weather department. (Accuweather tied for the top spot, BTW)
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 60, Low 44
Friday -High 63, Low 40

Grade: A

This sounds great

Right now in Minneapolis, its cold enough that I can see my breath. The past two days in Gainesville, they saw mostly sunny skies and temperatures that climbed into the low 70s. That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Not distracted by the amazing weather, Accuweather had the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 70, Low 42
Wednesday, High 76, Low 42

Grade A

A different Columbus

Hey, this is going to be a weird day. I’ll start with this Columbus verification, but Anthony, who has been on vacation, will be back this evening to take care of the forecast and road trip for the day.
Back when the site first started, we always seemed to have forecasts for Columbus, Ohio. Now, we keep featuring Columbuses, but have moved further south. Does this mean we are doing well in Columbus? Eh, not really. The Weather Channel is though. They went away from covering health care reform and actually set about creating an excellent forecast. They navigated a pretty sizable temperature swing from Monday to Tuesday and blew everyone out of the water. From here on out, I’m covering politics and forecasting as an afterthought. How about that Bull Moose party?
Actuals: Monday – No precip, High 50, Low 40
Tuesday – High 68, Low 44

Grade: B

Avoiding the thunder

There were severe thunderstorms in Washington DC yesterday, which isn’t terribly far from Newport News. As it turned out, though, the thunderstorms popped up just south of DC and shifted off to the north, narrowly averting the Hampton Roads area. Newport News only ended up with three hundredths of an inch of rain, but the passage of the cold front that generated the storms in DC did knock down temperatures several degrees. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 55
Monday – High 70, Low 55

Grade: B

Warm air advecting

I had mentioned that things would warm up in Richmond over this weekend ahead of a very Springlike system in the southern Plains. Hard to believe, given that it was the culprit for a snow storm in Oklahoma. Well, believe it, because that southerly flow ahead of the system drove temperatures even warmer than anyone was expecting, nearly hitting 80 on Saturday. That’s a pretty spectacular weekend if you were to ask me. The Weather Channel did see the warm up coming, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 41
Saturday – High 79, Low 42

Grade: A

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B

Unexpected sunshine

Sometimes when you check a verification, the forecast isn’t so good but you feel all right about that. Myrtle Beach is a perfect example. We all anticipated a cool beginning to the week in Myrtle Beach, but a healthy dose of sunshine warmed temperatures up, in some cases almost 10 degrees better than what had been in the forecast. The near 70 degree highs on Monday definitely threw a few people. in the end, the Weather Service had the best forecast, but I would venture to say the weather was even better than the forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday, High 63, Low 47
Monday – High 68, Low 46

Grade: C

Midday thunder

I have been anticipating a rough forecast for somewhere for a while with the upper level low covering the eastern third of the country. There was too much room for a peek of sun to send temperatures skyrocketing, or the threat for constant rain to tamp temperatures down. For Columbus, it was a line of thunderstorms moving in on Friday before the heating of the day really got ramped up. All told, things weren’t as bad as they could have been, especially since V-W netted the victory.
Actuals: Friday – .59 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 50
Saturday .04 inches of rain, High 54, Low 43

Grade: C

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B

Hey, a verification!

We haven’t been able to fire one of these bad boys off in a while, but now we can look at Bay City, Michigan, the site of the return forecast. As if to show everyone that we aren’t going to take any funny business in this newest incarnation of Victoria-Weather, we marked our territory with an early victory. We made our greatest strides on Wednesday, when temperatures were unable to cool off overnight because of the increasing clouds, just like we envisioned. Huzzah!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 55, Low 30
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 48, Low 37

Grade A