Category Archives: Verification


A cold front has stalled itself along the Appalachians and Smokeys. The city of Nashville is underwater, if you haven’t heard, and the state of Tennessee is in the midst of a full blown catastrophe, with dozens dead due to the rising floodwaters. Kingsport, our forecast from Saturday, was spared that degree of unpleasantness, though the beginning of the week was not enjoyable to say the least. After a brief tease of some rain in the midst of near 90 degree heat on Sunday, they got over an inch of rain on Monday. As it turned out, Weatherbug tied us for the top spot on this one.
Actuals: Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 89, Low 60
Monday – 1.08 inches of rain, High 79, Low 65

Grade B

Two disparate forecasts, both very wrong

There were two schools of thought on the forecast in Bangor. One said that things would warm up on Sunday after a warm front passed though and some stout southerly flow picked up. Another said the temperature would drop off precipitously on Sunday as clouds and drizzle rolled in. The forecasts could not have been more different. As it happens, they were both wrong. Extremely wrong. The temperature was able to climb to near 80 both days of the weekend, and the lows were also much warmer than expected. On top of that, the rain that was supposed to come on Sunday never came, and instead we looked at some isolated drizzle on Saturday. We could say that The Weather Channel was the winner in Bangor, but the truth is, there was no winner. Well, except for the people of Bangor, who saw such excellent weather.
Actuals: Saturday – rain reported, not measured, High 79, Low 45
Sunday – High 79, Low 55

Grade: D (very close to an F)

Feels like Fall

Well, it did in Allentown the past couple of days. The variation in temperature was only 5 degrees for the entire 48 hour period thanks to the thick layer of clouds that buffered the area, and the temperatures never climbed above 54 or dropped below 49. The average temperature everyone had in their forecasts all ended up in the same neighborhood, but the highs and lows weren’t too good for anyone. Accuweather ended up with the top forecast for Allentown.
Actuals: Monday – .27 inches of rain, High 53, Low 49
Tuesday – .02 inches of rain, High 54, Low 49

Grade: C

Catching the nasty weather

Johnson City didn’t see quite as much rain as we had called for, but between the two days of our forecast period they did receive over a half an inch of rain, which isn’t peanuts. Like Oklahoma City, the previous city in our forecast repertoire, Johnson City managed to avoid the severe weather, however, which is of course good news, considering the destruction off to their southeast. Weatherbug, who wrote a novel for their forecast, had the top forecast in Johnson City.
Actuals: Friday – .17 inches of rain High 76, Low 46
Saturday – .42 inches of rain, some in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 57

Grade: B

Dodging the severe weather

It’s been a rough couple of days for the southern US in terms of severe weather. In Oklahoma City, however, they got lucky. It didn’t rain or storm in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, and they avoided any severe storms yesterday. Temperatures were down, which may have prevented the genesis of strong storms in their immediate area, but the bigger deal was that storms developed further west than anticipated and began to die out overnight. Accuweather and The Weather Channel had the top forecasts for the better than expected weather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 57
Thursday – .17 inches of rain, High 75, Low 61

Grade: C

Sunny south Florida

Our forecast for Naples called for some typically active Floridian weather. Fortunately for them, all the thunderstorms that Florida saw the past two days went up inland, away from Naples and then continued to drift off towards Orlando and Lake Okeechobee. Florida thunderstorms are always tough to pinpoint, but it’s never a good idea to beat against them, regardless of what today’s verification suggests. The top forecast went to Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 79, Low 64
Wednesday – High 78, Low 69

Grade: A

Like day and night

The temperature in Jefferson City fell off a little bit form Wednesday to Thursday. After a balmy 84 degree day on Wednesday, a cold front and it’s associated clouds arrived on Thursday, preventing temperatures from even reaching 70. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug most accurately foresaw this dramatic turn for the worst (if you like hot weather), and ended up with the top forecasts.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 54
Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 53

Grade: B

Deja Vu

For the second time this week, we’re going to be verifying a forecast in Bridgeport. Popular place for us this week. I’m just happy we could oblige with a forecast that busted, due to somewhat nicer weather. Clouds were present overnight in Bridgeport which kept lows warmer than expected. On top of that, the showers some called for on Tuesday stayed south of the city. The Weather Channel tied Accuweather atop the leaderboard in this typically Springtime forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 58, Low 46
Wednesday – High 63, Low 41

Grade: B

Protected by mountains

Anchorage looked to be in line for a rather nasty couple of days, however the elevation around the Cook Inlet kept all that nasty weather out of the city. In the end, they ended up with only a bit of rain overnight from Monday to Tuesday, and cloudy skies all around. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast, and I couldn’t be prouder.
Actuals: Monday – Rain observed, but not measured, High 45, low 39
Tuesday – Rain observed but not measured, High 44, Low 36

Grade: C

Way too dry

I had mentioned that Youngstown was going to see an area of high pressure stanch the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico north to their neck of the woods. As it so happens, this had a greater influence on the forecast than I had originally prognosticated. The low temperatures, unchecked by moisture on Saturday, plummeted to the upper 20s, and the cold front passed through yesterday completely dry. In the end, there was a three way tie at the top, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Bug.
Actuals: Saturday – High 63, Low 28
Sunday – High 66, Low 42

Grade B