Category Archives: Verification

Gorgeous Weekend

Given that the 4th of July was on a Sunday this year, this meant lots of people would be out and about hoping to score some nice weather with their holiday weekend. Luckily, for the people of San Jose anyways, Mother Nature pulled through. Mostly clear skies and some breezy afternoon winds pushed temperatures into the mid to upper 80’s. Whatever was perplexing VW and others about the cooler Independence Day came to fruition, as the NWS nabbed the top spot with their cooler 4th of July. Hope everybody had a safe and happy weekend!

Saturday: High 88, Low 56.
Sunday: High 85, Low 56.

Forecast grade: A

Surprising chill

That’s a tough title to wrap your head around when, in fact, Jefferson City was in the mid 80s for highs for the past two days. When everyone forecasts highs a few degrees warmer, thanks to the clear skies and southerly flow, it is a little surprising that temperatures don’t get up to the neighborhood we were expecting. Victoria Weather still managed the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 64
Friday – High 86, Low 62

Grade: C

A breath of fresh air

Sioux City successfully made it through the end of June without any more problems, seeing temperatures in the lower 80s with not a drop of rain to be had. Not a bad way to close out the month, especially the way it had been going. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 82, Low 53
Wednesday – High 84, Low 56

Grade: A

Too many storms

I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over the forecast period, avoiding any real severe weather due to the timing of the thunderstorms. Well, instead the storms came through in the middle of the day on Sunday and left a swath of damage in the Cleveland metro. There was a small tornado up in Ashtabula, but most of the damage was the result of straight line winds. The airport in Cleveland reported winds of over 40mph in the early evening. The Weather Channel, as seems to be usual lately, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Monday – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade: B

Foiled by sprinkles

Only one outlet had the thundershowers properly forecast in Lewiston, Idaho. One little guy snuck into town in the early afternoon on Friday and brought a trace of rain, and the Weather Channel had it in their forecast. TWC’s correct precip forecast gave them the victory, as it knocked V-W out of the top spot. Blast!
Actuals: Friday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 59
Saturday – High 83, Low 56

Grade: B

Problems with the low

Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There was a thunderstorm in town on Tuesday, and some spotty showers on Wednesday, but the real issue for the Weather Service and Weatherbug were lows. Tuesday, temperatures stayed warmer overnight than expected, while the opposite situation came to be on Wednesday. Actually, the lows were only different by 4 degrees, but the forecast lows from the NWS and Weatherbug were different by 15 degrees. Victoria Weather, with our more baseline forecast had the top spot in Elmira.
Actuals: Tuesday – .19 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 79, Low 60
Wednesday – .03 inches of rain, High 87, Low 64

Grade: B

Asleep at the Switch

Apparently the reporting station in Visalia ran out of juice sometime on Sunday, or maybe the person there accidentally pulled the plug while watching everybody stumble their way down the Back 9 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open and didn’t notice. In any event, no reports were logged from 6pm Sunday till darn near noon on Monday, save for 1 lonely report just before 7am, a morning low perhaps? If these numbers panned out, it’d have been a lil cooler than forecasts, but still a nice weekend.

Sunday: High 84?, Low 51
Monday: High 87, Low 59?

As hot as expected

El Paso lies west of the dry line, as Anthony mentioned on Thursday. They get nothing but scalding heat, a good toasty dry heat almost every day through the summer. The past two days were no different, with the highs dancing about 100, and the lows not cooling off enough for a northerner to sleep, that’s for sure. Victoria Weather and the Weather Channel tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday, High 103, Low 68
Saturday, High 102, Low 76

Grade: B

The Marine Layer

The cold water off the Pacific Coast often leads to some early morning low clouds and fog. If conditions are just right, that drear can last well into the day. On particularly aggressive days, it can find it’s way across San Francisco Bay into Oakland. It did not during our forecast period, and the range of temperatures was wider for the duration of the period. Highs were warmer, lows were cooler and most of us were thrown. Accuweather correctly predicted the sunny weather and had a good forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 75, Low 49
Thursday -High 73, Low 51

Grade: A

A smattering on the coast

The forecasts in Corvallis were bunched much better than they were in Hagerstown, and they all called for cool temperatures and some light rain through the forecast period. A trough collapsing at the coast did it’s part and brought that drizzle into town for the middle of the week. The Weather Service and Weatherbug had the top forecasts, correctly calling for the decided Pacific Northwest weather.
Actuals: Wednesday .04 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 62, Low 51

Grade: B