Category Archives: Verification

High pressure, high quality

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 65
Thursday – High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

Could have been worse

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A

Hopefully, the air conditioning worked

Here in Minnesota, where Victoria-Weather has our headquarters, we get a stretch of 90s, and it’s a big time drain on the energy bill, what with the air conditioning running all the time. I can’t imagine what it’s like down in Alabama, where it’s hot and humid for several months out of the year. Anniston was mostly sunny through the past two days save for a brief thunderstorm both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures were allowed to sneak up into the 90s, like they always do, and the lows never dipped below 75. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the steamy city.
Actuals: Thursday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 94, ow 77
Friday – Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, High 91, Low 75

Grade: A

Autumn on it’s way

The forecast for Grand Forks was notable for one good reason. Low temperatures were supposed to dip to the low 40s, a downright autumnal feel. They did just that, but summer had a last gasp. getting temperatures up to the mid 80s on Tuesday. Victoria-Weather was the warmest forecaster on Tuesday, and carried through to the end result, where we were the tops in Grand Forks.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precip, High 84, Low 43
Wednesday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 71, Low 49

Grade: B

Nonsense

On Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm erupted over Amarillo in the mid morning amid cloudy skies. The sun never came out with showers and storms in the area for the entire day, which led temperatures to remain a lot cooler than anticipated. The nearest anyone got to the correct high was The Weather Channel, and they were 11 degrees too warm. The daily high on Monday in Amarillo was a paltry 77 degrees. Things bounced back to 89 on Tuesday, but that bizarre looking number on Monday really stuck out. The Weather Channel, more for their near perfection on the other verifying times, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .24 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – .31 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 66

Grade C

Excuse me while I eat my crow

I made fun of Accuweather during the forecast for their seemingly ostentatious prediction of a high of 97 on Sunday in Chattanooga. Color me surprised when I saw that the high temperature actually did reach 97 ahead of a weak cold front that didn’t produce any wet weather for the Chattanooga area. Of course, there was a bit of rain with the isolated storms on Saturday. Really, nothing went quite as expected over the weekend for most of us, but Accuweather did come away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 92, Low 77
Sunday – High 97, Low 76

Grade: B

Soggy Start to Weekend

The dissipating system that moved in from the Gulf continues to spin itself out over the Deep South, bringing some periods of rain to the Jackson area. Friday saw over half-inch fall, including 0.30″ in only 7 minutes at one point. Saturday saw slightly less rain over the region, but with cooler temperatures than most people predicted. TWC had a significantly cooler high for Saturday than everybody else, and turned out to be closest with it only topped out at 89. Then again, the Jackson ASOS decided to go kaput from 11am-230pm. Perhaps Jim Cantore ulplugged it to keep TWC on top? The world may never know…

Friday: 0.59″ of rain. High 95, Low 75.
Saturday: 0.11″ of rain. High 89 (maybe?), Low 75.
Forecast Grade: B

Watching out for Number 5

The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at the time we issued the Tallahassee forecast has since been labeled Tropical Depression 5. There isn’t much chance that it will be a hurricane at any point in it’s life cycle, and there is even a chance that the system won’t even become a Tropical Storm. It is expected to stall over the Mississippi Delta, providing more problems for an area that certainly doesn’t need any. The system also showed a more northerly track than I had indicated in my forecast on Sunday, and they saw a thunderstorm in Tallahassee yesterday.In the end, Weatherbug and The Weather Channel ended up getting the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – .38 inhes of rain, High 94, Low 78

Grade B

Summery in South Carolina

Thunderstorms are always hit or miss in the southeast. They never move in lines like they do further north, they crop up and drift. It’s really hard to say whether a certain city will see a storm beyond about two hours. Somehow, Weatherbug correctly asserted that the rain would not find it’s way into Greenville, and were the only ones to do so. The best part was that their temperature forecast was the best by a few degrees as well, so it wasn’t just luck that won the forecast. In fact, the forecast was only off by a degree total through the period.
Actuals: Sunday, High 91, Low 73
Monday, High 93, Low 73

Grade: A

Perfect weather

Well, it is for me at least. It may have been a little too hot and humid for most in Louisville for the past few days with highs in the 90s and dew points high enough for it to be muggy. I like that, I can understand if you might not. Anyways, the top forecasts, good ones at that, went to V-W and The Weather Channel
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 68
Sunday – High 93, Low 69

Grade: A