Category Archives: Verification

A first taste of summer

It’s only late May, but the banks of the Mississippi in Iowa have already seen the temperatures climb to the lower 90s, like in Davenport the past couple of days. Thunderstorms, as I predicted, remained out of Davenport, and the city merely saw a couple days of hot, humid air. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 71
Monday – High 92, Low 69

Grade: A

Delmarva Shower

High pressure to the north has kept a steady sort of onshore flow over the Mid-Atlantic states. Some afternoon instability had ignited some scattered showers near Dover. They missed on Saturday, but did drop about a tenth of an inch on Sunday as they had a few bouts of light sprinkles though. Temperatures overall were pretty steady, with the Weather Channel taking home the top spot.

Saturday: High 73, Low 60.
Sunday: 0.08″ of rain in periodic showers. High 69, Low 62.
Forecast grade: A

Quite a disparity

We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as anyone can tell you, it’s a challenging place to forecast for. It was for 4 of our forecasters on Tuesday when we put together the forecast for Great Falls. Victoria-Weather’s was the only forecast to call for a cool down after the rain on Thursday, and it paid off, as the low on Thursday came late and dipped to 35. This bugs me, because I actually brought our low up when seeing that the meteorological consensus was that the front wouldn’t carry as much cold air behind it. This is why your mom tells you to believe in yourself. Even after all of that, however, VW had a much better forecast than everyone else.
Actuals: Wednesday – .08″ of rain High 71, Low 51
Thursday – .06″ of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: B

Let’s get Oxnarded

With the rain they saw in Oxnard on Tuesday, they received 10 times their monthly total. Of course, they average .01″ in the month of May, so by many other people’s standards, the rain wasn’t too terribly heavy, but in Oxnard, it was quite a bit. Especially on the heels of last months .69″ of rain. It’s a veritable monsoon down there! The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .10 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Wednesday – High 63, Low 53

Grade: A

Asleep at the switch

I said in the forecast for Lexington that Accuweather must have been in a dream world, as their forecast was very warm, given how rainy and cloudy it appeared like it would be. Sure enough, the high temperatures proffered by AW missed by about 10 degrees. The rest of us were too warm as well, as the rainy days in Lexington meant temperatures that couldn’t get out of the 60s. The Weather Service had the best forecast, but it wasn’t great.
Actuals: Sunday – .97 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58
Monday – .04 inches of rain, High 69, Low 58

Grade C

It’s looking like summer

The southeast is generally very active with showers and thunderstorms through the summer. Its never a severe outbreak or anything, just a few cells that develop because of the heat and moisture of the area. This was apparently the case over the past couple of days, though there was a weak upper trough helping to perhaps expand the coverage. It was hit or miss in western North Carolina and Hickory, where the showers missed on Saturday and hit for a quarter inch of new rain on Sunday. Congrats to the Weather Service and Weatherbug for forecasting the fog on Saturday. Too bad they were 4th and 5th in the standings, however, with VicWx and TWC tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 84, Low 62
Sunday – .25″ of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: B

Dreary, but not too dreary

Providence was unfortunate enough to see some cloudy, drizzly skies the past couple of days, but there was enough sun that broke out yesterday that temperatures climbed about 5 degrees higher than anyone expected. The fact that they saw rain on each of the two days of the forecast period, however, gave Victoria-Weather the top forecast for the largest city in the smallest state.
Actuals: Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 65, Low 49
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 73, Low 55

Grade: B

No cool down

While most of the cold front running through the eastern and central United States set up in a line type pattern, they were more of an assortment of clusters in Arkansas, and mostly avoided Little Rock. They only saw a trace of with the activity in the state yesterday, though there were scattered wind and hail reports across much of Arkansas. The biggest issue with these forecasts, however, was that the fact that the front hung well north of Little Rock on Friday. Temperatures didn’t drop off at all like everyone anticipated, but rather the stout southerly flow meant temperatures actually climbed a few degrees. The high temperatures Friday were about 10 degrees off as a result. The Weather Channel eventually got the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 86, Low 70
Friday -Trace of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: C

Awash in shoddy forecasts

The first round of rain in Muncie really set the tone for the past two days. The rain came pouring down early in the late morning on Wednesday. The rain totaled over an inch and kept things cool for the entire day, capping the high 10 degrees off from the forecasts. The cooler day time temperature meant a cooler overnight low as well the next day, so Thursday’s low was about ten degrees off. The Weather Channel had the best forecast in Muncie, but it wasn’t a particularly good one.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.04 inches of rain High 60, Low 51
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 50

Grade: C

I’m Ron Burgandy?

I don’t think any San Diego forecast-verification cycle can be completed without a reference to Anchor Man. This is because there is rarely any substantial weather in San Diego, and it was a funny movie. I noted in the forecast that everyone but V-W had the same low temperature forecasts. My forecast, which was a degree or two cooler on each day, ended up being closer, and the difference between a last place finish and a tie at the top with The Weather Channel. It was very close, top to bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 64, Low 56
Wednesday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A