Category Archives: Verification

Good for you, Optimists

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn’t turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 50
Wednesday – High 76, Low 59

Grade: C

Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico

I can’t remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday – High 87, Low 53

Grade: D

Miles above everyone else

The question in Des Moines was whether or not clouds would accompany a strong southerly flow associated with a strong low in the Dakotas. The clouds didn’t come, as it turned out, and only one provider foresaw a sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. As usual, that was the Weather Channel, who outclassed everyone by at least 10 degrees.
Actuals: Sunday – High 92, Low 67
Monday – High 90, Low 72

Grade: A

Everybody’s perfect

At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52

Grade: A

High pressure, high quality

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 65
Thursday – High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

Could have been worse

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A

Hopefully, the air conditioning worked

Here in Minnesota, where Victoria-Weather has our headquarters, we get a stretch of 90s, and it’s a big time drain on the energy bill, what with the air conditioning running all the time. I can’t imagine what it’s like down in Alabama, where it’s hot and humid for several months out of the year. Anniston was mostly sunny through the past two days save for a brief thunderstorm both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures were allowed to sneak up into the 90s, like they always do, and the lows never dipped below 75. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the steamy city.
Actuals: Thursday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 94, ow 77
Friday – Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, High 91, Low 75

Grade: A

Autumn on it’s way

The forecast for Grand Forks was notable for one good reason. Low temperatures were supposed to dip to the low 40s, a downright autumnal feel. They did just that, but summer had a last gasp. getting temperatures up to the mid 80s on Tuesday. Victoria-Weather was the warmest forecaster on Tuesday, and carried through to the end result, where we were the tops in Grand Forks.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of precip, High 84, Low 43
Wednesday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 71, Low 49

Grade: B

Nonsense

On Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm erupted over Amarillo in the mid morning amid cloudy skies. The sun never came out with showers and storms in the area for the entire day, which led temperatures to remain a lot cooler than anticipated. The nearest anyone got to the correct high was The Weather Channel, and they were 11 degrees too warm. The daily high on Monday in Amarillo was a paltry 77 degrees. Things bounced back to 89 on Tuesday, but that bizarre looking number on Monday really stuck out. The Weather Channel, more for their near perfection on the other verifying times, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .24 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – .31 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 66

Grade C

Excuse me while I eat my crow

I made fun of Accuweather during the forecast for their seemingly ostentatious prediction of a high of 97 on Sunday in Chattanooga. Color me surprised when I saw that the high temperature actually did reach 97 ahead of a weak cold front that didn’t produce any wet weather for the Chattanooga area. Of course, there was a bit of rain with the isolated storms on Saturday. Really, nothing went quite as expected over the weekend for most of us, but Accuweather did come away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 92, Low 77
Sunday – High 97, Low 76

Grade: B