Category Archives: Verification

Bipolar temperatures

When things are dry, as they were in Provo the past couple of days, temperatures can fluctuate wildly through a day. On Tuesday, Provo saw temperatures bottom out at 41, then climb during the day to 86, a 45 degree spread. Egads. Things were a little bit more stable on Wednesday, when there was some moisture and even a thunderstorm in the area, and the high was only 24 degrees warmer than the low. The Weather Service and Victoria-Weather topped ’em all with the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 41
Wednesday – Thunderstorm reported, precipitation not measured, High 84, Low 60

Grade: C

Sweltering Summer Finish

Labor Day unofficially marks the end of summer, with kids going back to school, trees begin the fall change up north, and wearing white becomes a fashion faux pas. Down in Midland, however, clear skies gave way to temps in the mid to upper 90’s each day as subsidence outside of Tropical Store Hermine kept things quiet. The Weather Channel continued their winning ways on the strength of a warm Sunday forecast.

Sunday: High 97, Low 65.
Monday: High 95, Low 70.
Forecast Grade: B

Fall arrives quickly

Altoona was a few degrees warmer than anyone expected. Nevertheless, when a cold front passed through town on Friday, temperatures did drop by 20 degrees or so. Behind the front, gusty winds on the order f almost 30mph were the story. Victoria-Weather, on the strength of our low temperature forecasting had the top results in Altoona, but the real winners were residents, as high temperatures never dropped below 70.
Actuals: Friday – Rain detected, not measured, High 90, Low 61
Saturday – High 70, Low 54

Grade: B

UnLaredolike

I had mentioned the pressing area of cool high pressure and the threat for increasing clouds in Laredo, but I discounted the threat for rain. I was a fool! The rain did come, much to the chagrin of ourselves and Accuweather, but even more surprisingly, temperatures about 12 degrees cooler than expected came into town, thanks to those clouds on Friday. The Weather Service was the closest, though not great on this one.

Good for you, Optimists

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn’t turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 50
Wednesday – High 76, Low 59

Grade: C

Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico

I can’t remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday – High 87, Low 53

Grade: D

Miles above everyone else

The question in Des Moines was whether or not clouds would accompany a strong southerly flow associated with a strong low in the Dakotas. The clouds didn’t come, as it turned out, and only one provider foresaw a sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. As usual, that was the Weather Channel, who outclassed everyone by at least 10 degrees.
Actuals: Sunday – High 92, Low 67
Monday – High 90, Low 72

Grade: A

Everybody’s perfect

At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52

Grade: A

High pressure, high quality

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 65
Thursday – High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

Could have been worse

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A