On Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm erupted over Amarillo in the mid morning amid cloudy skies. The sun never came out with showers and storms in the area for the entire day, which led temperatures to remain a lot cooler than anticipated. The nearest anyone got to the correct high was The Weather Channel, and they were 11 degrees too warm. The daily high on Monday in Amarillo was a paltry 77 degrees. Things bounced back to 89 on Tuesday, but that bizarre looking number on Monday really stuck out. The Weather Channel, more for their near perfection on the other verifying times, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .24 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – .31 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 66
I made fun of Accuweather during the forecast for their seemingly ostentatious prediction of a high of 97 on Sunday in Chattanooga. Color me surprised when I saw that the high temperature actually did reach 97 ahead of a weak cold front that didn’t produce any wet weather for the Chattanooga area. Of course, there was a bit of rain with the isolated storms on Saturday. Really, nothing went quite as expected over the weekend for most of us, but Accuweather did come away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 92, Low 77
Sunday – High 97, Low 76
The dissipating system that moved in from the Gulf continues to spin itself out over the Deep South, bringing some periods of rain to the Jackson area. Friday saw over half-inch fall, including 0.30″ in only 7 minutes at one point. Saturday saw slightly less rain over the region, but with cooler temperatures than most people predicted. TWC had a significantly cooler high for Saturday than everybody else, and turned out to be closest with it only topped out at 89. Then again, the Jackson ASOS decided to go kaput from 11am-230pm. Perhaps Jim Cantore ulplugged it to keep TWC on top? The world may never know…
Friday: 0.59″ of rain. High 95, Low 75.
Saturday: 0.11″ of rain. High 89 (maybe?), Low 75.
Forecast Grade: B
The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at the time we issued the Tallahassee forecast has since been labeled Tropical Depression 5. There isn’t much chance that it will be a hurricane at any point in it’s life cycle, and there is even a chance that the system won’t even become a Tropical Storm. It is expected to stall over the Mississippi Delta, providing more problems for an area that certainly doesn’t need any. The system also showed a more northerly track than I had indicated in my forecast on Sunday, and they saw a thunderstorm in Tallahassee yesterday.In the end, Weatherbug and The Weather Channel ended up getting the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – .38 inhes of rain, High 94, Low 78
Thunderstorms are always hit or miss in the southeast. They never move in lines like they do further north, they crop up and drift. It’s really hard to say whether a certain city will see a storm beyond about two hours. Somehow, Weatherbug correctly asserted that the rain would not find it’s way into Greenville, and were the only ones to do so. The best part was that their temperature forecast was the best by a few degrees as well, so it wasn’t just luck that won the forecast. In fact, the forecast was only off by a degree total through the period.
Actuals: Sunday, High 91, Low 73
Monday, High 93, Low 73
Well, it is for me at least. It may have been a little too hot and humid for most in Louisville for the past few days with highs in the 90s and dew points high enough for it to be muggy. I like that, I can understand if you might not. Anyways, the top forecasts, good ones at that, went to V-W and The Weather Channel
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 68
Sunday – High 93, Low 69
It’s a dangerous thing, trusting the models unquestioningly. In mountainous locations, I wouldn’t dare try to divine the temperatures out west without the raw numbers given by models, but I noticed that in Wenatchee, the models had been trending cooler for the past several days, so I reflected that in my forecast. Sure enough, Victoria-Weather had the best forecast. It was only better by a degree or two every day, but that eventually added up to an easy win.
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 61
Saturday – High 88, Low 59
For Monday, everyone had the threat for thunderstorms in their forecast for Bismarck. I had even mentioned that they would be isolated in my forecast. On Monday evening, one cell popped up northwest of Bismarck, taking with it a tornado warning and rolled right through North Dakota’s capital. There were 40mph winds at the airport, and the city received a quick quarter inch of rain. The forecasts were tightly clustered, but The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us.
Actuals: Monday – .25 inches of rain in a heavy thunderstorm, High 86, Low 65
Tuesday – High 83, Low 62
A small little dash of rain, that’s all it took to throw forecasts off for everyone. Fort Wayne had a trace of rain reported late yesterday. They didn’t even endure whatever caused it long enough to show up in observations, only in rain gauges. Nevertheless, everyone knew about the possibility, but nobody truly took it seriously. The top forecast on this occasion went to Weatherbug who had a fairly exceptional temperature forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 85, Low 61
Monday – Trace of rain, High 86, Low 65
Fun facts: The two highs I had forecast in Reno matched the highs I had forecast in Naples. They also matched what happened over the weekend in Reno. Nice! The low Saturday was also a perfect match, and the Sunday low was off by only a degree. That’s a quality forecast for a quality town from Victoria Weather. (Had it been a bad forecast, the headline would have been ‘Reno 911’)
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 58
Sunday – High 91, Low 55