Category Archives: Verification

Chilly mornings

I brought the temperature up a little bit in York for the Friday morning forecast, because that seemed to be what the rest of the world opined. Oops. Temperatures instead rattled down to below 40 on Friday morning, much cooler than anyone thought. On the heels of their topping us all in September, Accuweather took the top spot in York.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 39
Saturday – High 77, Low 46

Grade B

Gorgeous Start

Typically scattered showers and thunderstorms dot the Gulf of Mexico region on a daily basis. However, a strong area of high pressure has kept the entire region dry as a bone. Houston was no exception, as a couple of warm sunny days were met as we kicked off the week. Victoria-Weather brought home the top spot.

Monday: High 77, Low 53.
Tuesday: High 79, Low 49.
Forecast grade: B

Led astray

The airport in Cumberland has a terribly knack for not reporting rain. At first, I thought it was actually dry the past two days there, however I took a look at nearby stations, and they all reported rain, just like was in the forecast. Anyways, the temperatures remained cool, and only cooled off on Monday with a thick blanket of clouds over the mountain town. Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug ended up with the top forecasts in town.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain, probably, High 64, Low 44
Monday – Probably some more rain, High 53, Low 46

Grade: B

Rainy days and Mondays

Well, it’s Monday and I have to report an unexpected rain storm in Bloomington on Saturday. I should say that it was unexpected by me. Everyone else called for a brief shower to begin the weekend, but they would be lying if they said they expected two tenths of an inch of rain. The crazy part is, even with the rain, V-W had the best forecast (tied with Accuweather) thanks to a superior temperature forecast, as we properly called for some cooler weather.

Actuals: Saturday – .18 inches of rain, High 60, Low 42
Sunday – High 59, Low 34

Grade: C

Nary a cloud

For the most part, Springfield reported clear skies in all of their observations. Sure, there were a couple instances of a passing cloud, but nothing that detracted from the beautiful weather central Illinois saw to end the month of September. V-W had the top forecast, making things all the more beautiful.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 79, Low 48
Thursday – High 78, Low 54

Grade: A

Mother Nature on Vacation

As mentioned in the Pueblo forecast, there is NOTHING going on out west. The dry forecasts continue to pile up for the western cities, with high temperatures as well. Accuweather took home the top spot for this lovely Colorado city, based on their low temperature forecasts.

Tuesday: High 91, Low 45.
Wednesday: High 94, Low 47.
Forecast grade: A

Sizzling Out West

Well the high pressure ridge out west kept much of the West Coast and Desert Southwest scorching this week, and Redding was no different. Temperatures nearly cracked 100 on Monday, then followed it up with an even hotter Tuesday. However, the calm winds and clear skies did help radiate out temperatures greatly during the night, falling into the mid 50s. That’s where most people got burnt, figuratively speaking of course. That aside, Ryan’s forecast for VW brought home the title, narrowly edging AW. That’s 2 out of the last 3 for yours truly, lets see if we can continue the hot streak to finish out the month!

Monday: High 99, Low 55.
Tuesday: High 103, Low 54.
Forecast grade: C

The Ninja System

Usually when a forecast goes awry, the explanation is hard to come by. A band of clouds slipped a couple miles north, the wind was gustier than expected or an isolated shower was actually a little bit more scattered. On the whole, we all tend to have a pretty good handle on the broader system, missing only some details. This was not the case in Philadelphia. An entire rainy, complicated system blew up over the southeastern US and started pumping moisture into the Philadelphia area. The upper level trough associated with this developing system sharpened and strengthened a lot more than expected, so after a cold front got to Philadelphia, the boundary stalled and started acting as a stationary or even a back door warm front, and moisture from the southeast started funneling north. Clouds and drizzle were present through almost the entire day yesterday, and temperatures never had a chance to drop off like initially expected. It was a pretty bad forecast all around, but the lack of effective model guidance was the real killer. The Weather Channel managed to have the best forecast, but I’m not sure they deserve any credit.
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, Low 72
Sunday – .04 inches of rain, High 73, Low 65

Grade: D

Redding, California

We’re off to California for tonight’s forecast. It’s going to rain everywhere out east, so I’m in the mood for good news.

At 752PM, PT, Redding was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. The west was remarkably quiet, with a stalled front over the Pacific Northwest the only nearby threat for rain, however the system was held up by a dominant ridge,
Inland, California continues to be clear and dry, while the coast will contend with the marine layer. Expect a summerlike feel for Redding for the next two days, as temperatures continue to flirt with 100.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 101, Low 59
Tuesday – Hot, High 101, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Very hot. High 103, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny. High 101, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with the temperature tying the record from 2009 with abundant sunshine High 101, Low 59
Tuesday – Sizzling sunshine and hot High 97, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 102, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Unseasonably hot, High 100, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, High 98, Low 63

So wait, the abundant sunshine currently holds the temperature? Is 101 hotter than that? I may have read Accuweather’s forecast incorrectly.

Nailed it!

Anthony mentioned in the forecast for Fresno that bikini weather would survive. Perhaps we just need to get him thinking about swimwear, because he nailed the forecast, missing only be two degrees on the Saturday high and achieving perfection on the other three verifying times. Well played. Bikini season forever!
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 58
Saturday – High 95, Low 60

Grade: A