Category Archives: Verification

Let’s get Oxnarded

With the rain they saw in Oxnard on Tuesday, they received 10 times their monthly total. Of course, they average .01″ in the month of May, so by many other people’s standards, the rain wasn’t too terribly heavy, but in Oxnard, it was quite a bit. Especially on the heels of last months .69″ of rain. It’s a veritable monsoon down there! The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .10 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Wednesday – High 63, Low 53

Grade: A

Asleep at the switch

I said in the forecast for Lexington that Accuweather must have been in a dream world, as their forecast was very warm, given how rainy and cloudy it appeared like it would be. Sure enough, the high temperatures proffered by AW missed by about 10 degrees. The rest of us were too warm as well, as the rainy days in Lexington meant temperatures that couldn’t get out of the 60s. The Weather Service had the best forecast, but it wasn’t great.
Actuals: Sunday – .97 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58
Monday – .04 inches of rain, High 69, Low 58

Grade C

It’s looking like summer

The southeast is generally very active with showers and thunderstorms through the summer. Its never a severe outbreak or anything, just a few cells that develop because of the heat and moisture of the area. This was apparently the case over the past couple of days, though there was a weak upper trough helping to perhaps expand the coverage. It was hit or miss in western North Carolina and Hickory, where the showers missed on Saturday and hit for a quarter inch of new rain on Sunday. Congrats to the Weather Service and Weatherbug for forecasting the fog on Saturday. Too bad they were 4th and 5th in the standings, however, with VicWx and TWC tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 84, Low 62
Sunday – .25″ of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: B

Dreary, but not too dreary

Providence was unfortunate enough to see some cloudy, drizzly skies the past couple of days, but there was enough sun that broke out yesterday that temperatures climbed about 5 degrees higher than anyone expected. The fact that they saw rain on each of the two days of the forecast period, however, gave Victoria-Weather the top forecast for the largest city in the smallest state.
Actuals: Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 65, Low 49
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 73, Low 55

Grade: B

No cool down

While most of the cold front running through the eastern and central United States set up in a line type pattern, they were more of an assortment of clusters in Arkansas, and mostly avoided Little Rock. They only saw a trace of with the activity in the state yesterday, though there were scattered wind and hail reports across much of Arkansas. The biggest issue with these forecasts, however, was that the fact that the front hung well north of Little Rock on Friday. Temperatures didn’t drop off at all like everyone anticipated, but rather the stout southerly flow meant temperatures actually climbed a few degrees. The high temperatures Friday were about 10 degrees off as a result. The Weather Channel eventually got the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 86, Low 70
Friday -Trace of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: C

Awash in shoddy forecasts

The first round of rain in Muncie really set the tone for the past two days. The rain came pouring down early in the late morning on Wednesday. The rain totaled over an inch and kept things cool for the entire day, capping the high 10 degrees off from the forecasts. The cooler day time temperature meant a cooler overnight low as well the next day, so Thursday’s low was about ten degrees off. The Weather Channel had the best forecast in Muncie, but it wasn’t a particularly good one.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.04 inches of rain High 60, Low 51
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 50

Grade: C

I’m Ron Burgandy?

I don’t think any San Diego forecast-verification cycle can be completed without a reference to Anchor Man. This is because there is rarely any substantial weather in San Diego, and it was a funny movie. I noted in the forecast that everyone but V-W had the same low temperature forecasts. My forecast, which was a degree or two cooler on each day, ended up being closer, and the difference between a last place finish and a tie at the top with The Weather Channel. It was very close, top to bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 64, Low 56
Wednesday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A

Sunny Skies

With high pressure taking a strong hold over much of the Southeast to start the week off, the thunderstorms normally seen in abundance over the FL Peninsula have been taking a vacation. More specifically, that meant a couple of sunny and nearly cloudy free days for Port St. Lucie. Temperatures ticked upwards a couple of degrees Monday to Tuesday, with Weatherbug tying us here at Victoria Weather for the top spot.

Monday: High 84, Low 69.
Tuesday: High 87, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B

Severe system spares Nebraska

Yesterday, a dynamic system moving into the Southern Plains organized and triggered a tornado outbreak over Oklahoma, the center of the tornado universe. In fact, the scientists at the National Weather Center, home to a combination of the Storm Prediction Center, NWS-Oklahoma City office, and a meteorological research campus of the University of Oklahoma saw a tornado out their window. They self reported! Unfortunately, this marks the second deadly outbreak of the year after last month’s twister that cut across Mississippi. 5 are dead and many more are injured in Oklahoma, most in Norman, just south of Oklahoma City where the NWC is located.
The images from this storm are incredible. We will look at some radar stills next week, when we don’t have forecasts scheduled every day. Speaking of forecasts, this is technically a verification post, which is why Nebraska was mentioned. Omaha was on the northern end of the system, and they mercifully only saw rain out of it. Temperatures were kept cool by persistent wind, and clouds. The rain didn’t start until Monday, which didn’t give Victoria-Weather the victory, it merely increased the margin of victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 62, Low 38
Monday – .59 inches of rain, High 54, Low 48

Grade: B

Steamy days

Chattanooga was forecast to see some hot weather, especially when compared to what they should be at in early May. Temperatures fluttered around in the high 80s for the past couple of days, which. if nothing else will help the state dry out after their torrential rains. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied atop the leader board.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 87, Low 57
Thursday – High 88, Low 60

Grade: A