Category Archives: Verification

Summery in South Carolina

Thunderstorms are always hit or miss in the southeast. They never move in lines like they do further north, they crop up and drift. It’s really hard to say whether a certain city will see a storm beyond about two hours. Somehow, Weatherbug correctly asserted that the rain would not find it’s way into Greenville, and were the only ones to do so. The best part was that their temperature forecast was the best by a few degrees as well, so it wasn’t just luck that won the forecast. In fact, the forecast was only off by a degree total through the period.
Actuals: Sunday, High 91, Low 73
Monday, High 93, Low 73

Grade: A

Perfect weather

Well, it is for me at least. It may have been a little too hot and humid for most in Louisville for the past few days with highs in the 90s and dew points high enough for it to be muggy. I like that, I can understand if you might not. Anyways, the top forecasts, good ones at that, went to V-W and The Weather Channel
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 68
Sunday – High 93, Low 69

Grade: A

A lucky few degrees

It’s a dangerous thing, trusting the models unquestioningly. In mountainous locations, I wouldn’t dare try to divine the temperatures out west without the raw numbers given by models, but I noticed that in Wenatchee, the models had been trending cooler for the past several days, so I reflected that in my forecast. Sure enough, Victoria-Weather had the best forecast. It was only better by a degree or two every day, but that eventually added up to an easy win.
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 61
Saturday – High 88, Low 59

Grade: C

The definition of isolated

For Monday, everyone had the threat for thunderstorms in their forecast for Bismarck. I had even mentioned that they would be isolated in my forecast. On Monday evening, one cell popped up northwest of Bismarck, taking with it a tornado warning and rolled right through North Dakota’s capital. There were 40mph winds at the airport, and the city received a quick quarter inch of rain. The forecasts were tightly clustered, but The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us.
Actuals: Monday – .25 inches of rain in a heavy thunderstorm, High 86, Low 65
Tuesday – High 83, Low 62

Grade B

Bad luck

A small little dash of rain, that’s all it took to throw forecasts off for everyone. Fort Wayne had a trace of rain reported late yesterday. They didn’t even endure whatever caused it long enough to show up in observations, only in rain gauges. Nevertheless, everyone knew about the possibility, but nobody truly took it seriously. The top forecast on this occasion went to Weatherbug who had a fairly exceptional temperature forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 85, Low 61
Monday – Trace of rain, High 86, Low 65

Grade B

Jackpot!

Fun facts: The two highs I had forecast in Reno matched the highs I had forecast in Naples. They also matched what happened over the weekend in Reno. Nice! The low Saturday was also a perfect match, and the Sunday low was off by only a degree. That’s a quality forecast for a quality town from Victoria Weather. (Had it been a bad forecast, the headline would have been ‘Reno 911’)
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 58
Sunday – High 91, Low 55

Grade: A

Forecasting is easy

When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly saw that there was only 1 degree of error for the entire 2 day period. The high only hit 90 in Naples yesterday (only) which was shy of the 91 I had in there. Victory seemed to be a in the bag, but Accuweather went ahead and had a perfect temperature forecasts. Those rascals. The dry day on Thursday was the only thing that caused Accuweather any problems.
Actuals: Wednesday – .65 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday – High 90, Low 77

Grade: A

Record Heat

The forecasts for Gainesville had them a couple degrees below record heat for both days, with the threat of a stray shower or thunderstorm keeping them from reaching those levels. However, Mother Nature would not be denied as Tuesday saw a new record high and Wednesday tying the old record set back in the 80s. A brief thunderstorm did move overhead on Wednesday, but this midweek heat will stay with them for a while, or at least in the record books. TWC again edged out the competition to take home the win, with AW bringing up the pack once more.

Tuesday: New record high of 98, Low 77.
Wednesday: 0.03″ of rain in a thunderstorm, Tied-record high of 97, Low 75.
Forecast grade: B

The fickle monsoon

As suspected, the weather in Salt Lake City was largely dictated by a typically monsoonal flow. A HOT monsoonal flow. There was an unexpected splash of rain on Monday that threw off some precipitation forecasts and knocked the high down a few degrees. Dry air allowed the low temperature to register a full 10 degrees cooler than some had forecast on Tuesday. Salt Lake was a typically difficult mountain forecast that the Weather Service came in on top with, solely because they were the only ones to even hit at rain on Monday.
Actuals – Monday – trace or rain, High 96, Low 70
Tuesday – Thunderstorms reported but not measured, High 94, Low 64

Grade: C

Soggy Weekend

The system that Ryan mentioned heading for Jackson did pretty much as advertised, bringing a couple bouts of storms to the region Friday and Saturday. Friday saw a couple heavy thunderstorms roll through the area, with gusts upwards of 40mph and dumping over an inch and a half of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures far lower than most people thought on Saturday, leading the way for TWC to take the top spot. Seems like they can forecast for everywhere except right outside their own building lately.

Friday: 1.65″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 91, Low 73.
Saturday: 0.21″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 84, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B