Category Archives: Verification

Afternoon clouds put a damper on temperatures

Our forecast of Pensacola was mostly correct except for one forecast high, the one on Wednesday. A developing low over the Gulf of Mexico was not anticipated to bring any rainfall to the Florida Panhandle, and it didn’t. Unfortunately, it did swing a thick deck of clouds northward through the daylight hours, which meant high temperature forecasts ended up off by almost 10 degrees. The top forecast went to the Weather Service.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 43, Low 32
Thursday – High 53, Low 37

Grade: C

Snow Stripe

Unfortunately, Columbus doesn’t keep records for their temperatures through the night, so we don’t have an official verification for that particular town, however we do have the snowfall totals from the Remote Sensing Center.

One thing is very clear looking at this in retrospect (and was at the time, looking at radar) the snow continued to follow a jet streak in a linear fashion rather than becoming more diffuse as I had expected. The snow trained right over a line from Chicago through Columbus and on towards Louisville and Cincinnati. There wasn’t a terrible amount of moisture, but there were still reports of 4-6″ of snow from this little clipper from Bloomington to Columbus, which is certainly more than I was expecting. Now, however, AFTER the forecast period is over, the whole complex is finally falling apart.

Trouble in Paradise

We have had quite the Hawaiian adventure lately, first with a our flight from Alabama to Hawaii, then the forecast on Tuesday for Honolulu that Anthony drafted. He “rolled the dice” and said Honolulu would stay dry on Wednesday, however a boundary lingering over the islands had other plans, and over a quarter inch of rain fell in Honolulu, with a lingering trace on Thursday. Tough time to take a honeymoon, now? As you can imagine, temperature forecasts were all really well done, but the top forecast went to Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – .28 inches of rain, High 82, Low 71
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 83, Low 72

Grade: A

Ann Arbor gets lucky

I know some people like the snow, and some people don’t. I know that most people can agree that when temperatures get really cold, it’s pretty unbearable. Clouds wrapping around an area of low pressure in northern Michigan acted as a blanket overnight that kept Ann Arbor from getting terribly cold. The pleasantly, uh, not freezing temepratures ended up giving The Weather Channel the top spot. Weatherbug almost got it, but forecast two days of snow, when they didn’t see any. (I feel proud of myself for getting through this post without any potshots at the Michigan Wolverines.)
Actuals: Friday – High 30, Low 24
Saturday – High 36, Low 30

Grade: C

Winter arrives just after midnight

If you are a big fan of celebrating Christmas as soon as Thanksgiving is over, then Battle Creek was for you. After a rainy Thanksgiving, it dried up in time for midnight before a few flurries fell in Battle Creek, just in time for all those early morning sales. It was tightly bunched atop the forecast leaderboard, with the Weather Service taking the top spot.
Actuals: Thursday – .36 inches of rain, High 42, Low 28
Friday – Snow reported but not measured, High 32, Low 23

Grade: A

Editors are overrated

We had a comment from reader Jon when the forecast for Manchester was posted. I had accidentally typed a 65 for Accuweather’s forecast high instead of a 45. Well, since I went in and fixed their forecast, they ended up tied atop the leaderboard. I would be upset if they hadn’t tied with us. Showers didn’t start moving into the area until after midnight, which knocked us all down a peg, and since the warm front didn’t get into town, it stayed cooler than expected.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 46, Low 30
Thursday – High 39, Low 27

Grade: C

High 75, Low 51

That’s pretty much all you need to know from Charleston. Partly cloudy skies, with no change from Sunday to Monday, except people had to go to work on Monday. There was some early morning fog, but that was essentially the only weather they saw in Charleston. Accuweather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 51
Monday – High 75, Low 51

Grade A

Incrementally cooler

Before I get to the verification for Bellingham, i wanted to let you all know that there is a new Victoria Weather twitter feed, in conjunction with the Victoria Times, @victoriawxtimes. OK, let’s talk about Bellingham. A cold front pushed ashore on Wednesday (remember this forecast came on Tuesday… the verification is a day late because of yesterday’ Off the Grid) and that front brought winds gusting to nearly 50mph. The next day, Thursday, the rain came. All told, Vancouver Island protected Bellingham from the heaviest rains, but there was still about a half inch of rain over the two days. The wind also brough some cooler temperatures, and it started snowing there last night. Of course, that wasn’t in the forecast period, so it’s not our problem! Accuweather had a commendable forecast, given how tricky weather in the undulating elevation can be, and took the top spot.

Actuals: Wednesday – .13in of rain, High 48, Low 39
Thursday – .36in of rain, High 44, Low 35

Grade: A

Hope the gas bill is paid

Forecasts of lows in the mid-20s were chilly enough, but on Saturday in Bismarck, clear overnight skies led to radiative cooling that was more effective than anticipated. The low on Saturday morning was 17 degrees, something almost nobody saw coming.A trace of some sort of precipitation came late Sunday, I assume it was snow because it has been snowing in Bismarck all day today. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thought it wasn’t terribly well executed, especially since the we were off by 11 degrees in total on the Day 1 of the forecast. Oh well, we’ll take it and do better next time.
Actuals: Saturday – High 34, Low 17
Sunday – Trace of precip, High 45, Low 24

Grade C

Last gasp of high pressure

In a couple days, Asheville will turn into a rainy, sopping mess. For the past couple of days, however, they have been a delightful, autumnal wonderland. Temperatures even peaked at 80 on Friday. Hard to argue with weather like that. V-W and Accuweather tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 70, Low 33
Saturday – High 68, Low 30

Grade: A