Category Archives: Verification

Springtime Warm Up

Elizabethtown was in line for a warm up as an area of high pressure established itself over the southeast. They got it, as temperatures climbed from the mid-60s to the upper 70s on Wednesday. One fly in the ointment was the temperatures Tuesday morning, which dipped all the way to 33, thanks to the clear skies over night. The Weather Service had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 33
Wednesday -High 77, Low 43

Grade: A

A 23-hour day?

Our competition all had a chance of showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night for Naples, we figured that they would hold off to the east. If our days lasted 23 hours, we would have stormed (no pun intended) to victory! Sadly, a rogue thunderstorm decided to move into the area after 11pm on Sunday, dropping a quick 4/10ths of an inch before midnight. Curses! AW wound up taking the top spot, with no added embellishment from Joe Bastardi.

Saturday: High 81, Low 55
Sunday: 0.42″ of rain in a thunderstorm. High 81, Low 66

Forecast grade: B

I definitely screwed something up

First, in the process of creating the forecast for Milwaukee, I transcribed the forecast from Weatherbug incorrectly. It was about 15 degrees off on the Friday high for everyone else. Of course, the forecast was flat out wrong for everyone else anyways. Clouds and some pretty substantial cold advection knocked temperatures down to the low 30s for a high Friday and in the 40s on Saturday. Of the forecasters that ended up getting their appropriate forecasts in, the best was Victoria-Weather and the Weather Channel. But it was nothing to be proud of.
Actuals: Friday, High 33, Low 27
Saturday – High 42, Low 29

Grade: D

Monterey Bay Victory

Anthony came back from vacation and immediately forecast for Santa Cruz, right in the state he had recently departed from. He certainly knew what he was doing, as he ended up with the top forecast for the city. There was a small dose of light rain showers on Thursday, but Santa Cruz ended up with a pleasant couple of days in the weather department. (Accuweather tied for the top spot, BTW)
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 60, Low 44
Friday -High 63, Low 40

Grade: A

This sounds great

Right now in Minneapolis, its cold enough that I can see my breath. The past two days in Gainesville, they saw mostly sunny skies and temperatures that climbed into the low 70s. That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Not distracted by the amazing weather, Accuweather had the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 70, Low 42
Wednesday, High 76, Low 42

Grade A

A different Columbus

Hey, this is going to be a weird day. I’ll start with this Columbus verification, but Anthony, who has been on vacation, will be back this evening to take care of the forecast and road trip for the day.
Back when the site first started, we always seemed to have forecasts for Columbus, Ohio. Now, we keep featuring Columbuses, but have moved further south. Does this mean we are doing well in Columbus? Eh, not really. The Weather Channel is though. They went away from covering health care reform and actually set about creating an excellent forecast. They navigated a pretty sizable temperature swing from Monday to Tuesday and blew everyone out of the water. From here on out, I’m covering politics and forecasting as an afterthought. How about that Bull Moose party?
Actuals: Monday – No precip, High 50, Low 40
Tuesday – High 68, Low 44

Grade: B

Avoiding the thunder

There were severe thunderstorms in Washington DC yesterday, which isn’t terribly far from Newport News. As it turned out, though, the thunderstorms popped up just south of DC and shifted off to the north, narrowly averting the Hampton Roads area. Newport News only ended up with three hundredths of an inch of rain, but the passage of the cold front that generated the storms in DC did knock down temperatures several degrees. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 55
Monday – High 70, Low 55

Grade: B

Warm air advecting

I had mentioned that things would warm up in Richmond over this weekend ahead of a very Springlike system in the southern Plains. Hard to believe, given that it was the culprit for a snow storm in Oklahoma. Well, believe it, because that southerly flow ahead of the system drove temperatures even warmer than anyone was expecting, nearly hitting 80 on Saturday. That’s a pretty spectacular weekend if you were to ask me. The Weather Channel did see the warm up coming, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 41
Saturday – High 79, Low 42

Grade: A

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B

Unexpected sunshine

Sometimes when you check a verification, the forecast isn’t so good but you feel all right about that. Myrtle Beach is a perfect example. We all anticipated a cool beginning to the week in Myrtle Beach, but a healthy dose of sunshine warmed temperatures up, in some cases almost 10 degrees better than what had been in the forecast. The near 70 degree highs on Monday definitely threw a few people. in the end, the Weather Service had the best forecast, but I would venture to say the weather was even better than the forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday, High 63, Low 47
Monday – High 68, Low 46

Grade: C