The Weather Blog » Verification

Live and on the scene

Ryan — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 21:24:14 +0000

I talked to my parents who are in Fort Myers on Thursday, and my dad remarked that it was cloudy and looked like rain. Remembering my forecast for St. Petersburg, I had a brief moment of agita, because I suspected that rain would stay north of St. Petersburg, and if it looked like rain in Fort Myers, I was in trouble. As it turned out, it was just clouds in Fort Myers. There was nothing on radar. It wasa two days of dry weather in St. Pete as well, and V-W ended up with the top forecast near Tampa Bay.
Actuals: Thursday - High 80, Low 57
Friday - High 75, Low 66

Grade: C

March in January

Ryan — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 21:10:15 +0000

January ended on a warm note in Madison. Forecast highs were around 40, but instead climbed to 45 and 50 each of the last two days. The warm air certainly busted a few forecasts and broke some snow lovers' hearts, but there is certainly a large sect of Madisonians that loved the balmy weather. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 45, Low 16
Tuesday, High 50, Low 36

Grade: D

Unpleasant results

Ryan — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 23:59:09 +0000

Temperatures along the Front Range tend to get away from forecasters, and those from Denver were no exception. The highs were warmer than expected by several degrees, and the temperature cooled markedly on Friday, into single digits. It even snowed at the airport, so we knew there were a few clouds. It was just a function of winds playing with mountains, and non standard days, and forecasting in the mountains is stupid. I say this even though V-W had the top 'cast.
Actuals: Thursday, High 58, Low 26
Friday - .30" of snow, High 45, Low 15

Grade: D

Even warmer than advertised

Ryan — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 21:48:29 +0000

Things were forecast to be warm in Brownsville the last couple of days, but temperatures were able to climb even higher than anyone had hinted at. Clouds streaming off the Gulf were not to be had, which allowed a couple extra degrees of warmth, and handed the top forecast award to The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Friday, High 82, Low 68
Saturday, High 84, Low 66

Grade: B

Clear skies win the day

Ryan — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:19:20 +0000

Those mountains can be pesky, that's for sure, but one thing rings true no matter where you are. If you have clear, dry air, the temperatures will fluctuate. So it was in Prescott, where temperatures hit peaks warmer than anyone though, and dipped cooler than all but one low temperature forecast. The extreme forecasters ended up with the top spots, as you might imagine. The National Weather Service was the most XTREME and thereby the most successful.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 52, Low 25
Wednesday - High 57, Low 23

Grade: B

In Chico, we’re the man

Ryan — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 23:51:33 +0000

When you think of California, unless you are thinking of maybe Tahoe, you don't often think of sub-freezing temperatures, but this was the case in Chico the past two days. Yesterday, the morning dipped all the way down to 19. The more incredulous forecasters, those who kept forecast lows a bit to warm, ended up way off, whereas Anthony's forecast was spot on.
Actuals: Monday - High 48, Low 26
Tuesday - High 48, Low 19

Grade: B

Frigid Friday

Anthony — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 04:55:57 +0000

As the trough descended upon Pittsburgh, temperatures dropped overnight and kept on going throughout the day on Friday. Not much of a fun surprise for people kicking off their Friday the 13th weekend plans, but alas, that's Winter for ya! A couple of inches coated the city by the time Saturday rolled around, but precip changed over from rain to snow at 11:27pm Thursday night, which ultimately let VW to a win!

Thursday: 0.63" of precip mainly as rain, also a trace of snow. High 46, Low 33.
Friday: 1.7" of snow (0.18" liquid equivalent). High 33, Low 16.
Forecast Grade: B

60s in January

Ryan — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 16:05:57 +0000

About a week and a half ago, I put together a forecast for Athens, Georgia, while I myself was actually IN Georgia. I can tell you from experience, it was unnecessarily cold on the morning of the 4th. The fountain in front of my hotel was frozen. In Athens, the low on the 4th was 19. That said, the very next day, warm air came a-chargin' and they hit 61 degrees. Not bad. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: January 4th, High 51, Low 19
January 5th, High 61, Low 32

Grade: B

Your typical January warm up

Ryan — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 18:50:57 +0000

It's been a while since our last verification, and thus, we get to take a look at a forecast for Rogers, Arkansas that I put together, valid for the 3rd and 4th. If you recall, the country was undergoing an unseasonable warm up, something that even included the low temperatures despite a lot sun angle with clear skies at night. Just what you expect in the dead of winter. I didn't transcribe the forecast low on the 4th for The Weather Channel, for some reason, so this isn't going to count towards anything, but Accuweather had the top forecast of those that I correctly transcribed, by a wide margin.
Actuals: January 3rd: High 48, Low 21
January 4th: High 55, Low 35

Grade: A

A drizzly start to the new year

Ryan — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 16:39:04 +0000

I was pretty certain that there would be clouds and fog in the Ventura area to begin the new year, particularly in the morning hours. Of course, what I didn't anticipate was those clouds squeezing out a couple of drops of rain. The obs reported a total of .06" of precipitation, though they didn't actually report rain. Still, with clouds and fog like that, I'm believe that they saw a bit of drizzle. Victoria-Weather had the victory for the last forecast of 2012.
Actuals: Sunday - .04 inches of rain, High 73, Low 46
Monday - .02 inches of rain, High 66, Low 46

Grade: D