The Weather Blog » Verification

Sweltering Summer Finish

Anthony — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:04:25 +0000

Labor Day unofficially marks the end of summer, with kids going back to school, trees begin the fall change up north, and wearing white becomes a fashion faux pas. Down in Midland, however, clear skies gave way to temps in the mid to upper 90's each day as subsidence outside of Tropical Store Hermine kept things quiet. The Weather Channel continued their winning ways on the strength of a warm Sunday forecast.

Sunday: High 97, Low 65.
Monday: High 95, Low 70.
Forecast Grade: B

Summer is fleeting Tuesday in Hagerstown couldn't have been nicer. It was 80...
Watching out for Number 5 The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at...
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Fall arrives quickly

Ryan — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 16:49:00 +0000

Altoona was a few degrees warmer than anyone expected. Nevertheless, when a cold front passed through town on Friday, temperatures did drop by 20 degrees or so. Behind the front, gusty winds on the order f almost 30mph were the story. Victoria-Weather, on the strength of our low temperature forecasting had the top results in Altoona, but the real winners were residents, as high temperatures never dropped below 70.
Actuals: Friday - Rain detected, not measured, High 90, Low 61
Saturday - High 70, Low 54

Grade: B

Feels like Fall Well, it did in Allentown the past couple of days....
High Pressure Continues The large scale ridge over the Eastern US continued it's...
Altoona, Pennsylvania I feel like whenever I come to forecast for Altoona,...

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UnLaredolike

Ryan — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 17:01:03 +0000

I had mentioned the pressing area of cool high pressure and the threat for increasing clouds in Laredo, but I discounted the threat for rain. I was a fool! The rain did come, much to the chagrin of ourselves and Accuweather, but even more surprisingly, temperatures about 12 degrees cooler than expected came into town, thanks to those clouds on Friday. The Weather Service was the closest, though not great on this one.

Soggy Start to Weekend The dissipating system that moved in from the Gulf continues...
Problems with the low Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There...
Asleep at the switch I said in the forecast for Lexington that Accuweather must...

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Good for you, Optimists

Ryan — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 06:50:53 +0000

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn't turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 70, Low 50
Wednesday - High 76, Low 59

Grade: C

Feels like Fall Well, it did in Allentown the past couple of days....
Monterey Bay Victory Anthony came back from vacation and immediately forecast for Santa...
Protected by mountains Anchorage looked to be in line for a rather nasty...

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Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico

Ryan — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:18:12 +0000

I can't remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday - .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday - High 87, Low 53

Grade: D

I never did care for New Mexico Some of the worst forecasts I have ever seen came...
Santa Fe, New Mexico Off to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment. At 1153AM,...
The fickle monsoon As suspected, the weather in Salt Lake City was largely...

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Miles above everyone else

Ryan — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 17:08:09 +0000

The question in Des Moines was whether or not clouds would accompany a strong southerly flow associated with a strong low in the Dakotas. The clouds didn't come, as it turned out, and only one provider foresaw a sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. As usual, that was the Weather Channel, who outclassed everyone by at least 10 degrees.
Actuals: Sunday - High 92, Low 67
Monday - High 90, Low 72

Grade: A

Too many storms I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over...
Nonsense On Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm erupted over Amarillo in the...
Seems like it should be easier The temperature and precip totals for Elmira were exactly the...

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Everybody’s perfect

Ryan — Sun, 29 Aug 2010 18:08:28 +0000

At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday - High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52

Grade: A

Forecasting is easy When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly...
I definitely screwed something up First, in the process of creating the forecast for Milwaukee,...
Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works! Accuweather has... not been good for the past year and...

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High pressure, high quality

Ryan — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 17:12:57 +0000

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 86, Low 65
Thursday - High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

High Pressure Continues The large scale ridge over the Eastern US continued it's...
Steamy days Chattanooga was forecast to see some hot weather, especially when...
Where was the warm air? Denver can be a difficult place to forecast for, as...

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Could have been worse

Ryan — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 22:19:04 +0000

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A

Clearing out for spring The middle of the week wasn't too bad in Evansville....
Summertime Swings As expected, the front shifted through Cheyenne late in the...
Problems with the low Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There...

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Hopefully, the air conditioning worked

Ryan — Sat, 21 Aug 2010 17:08:44 +0000

Here in Minnesota, where Victoria-Weather has our headquarters, we get a stretch of 90s, and it's a big time drain on the energy bill, what with the air conditioning running all the time. I can't imagine what it's like down in Alabama, where it's hot and humid for several months out of the year. Anniston was mostly sunny through the past two days save for a brief thunderstorm both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures were allowed to sneak up into the 90s, like they always do, and the lows never dipped below 75. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the steamy city.
Actuals: Thursday - .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 94, ow 77
Friday - Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, High 91, Low 75

Grade: A

Quite a disparity We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as...
Problems with the low Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There...
Catching the nasty weather Johnson City didn't see quite as much rain as we...

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