Category Archives: Forecast

Anchorage, Alaska

Anchorage, historically, has proven to be a nightmare to forecast for. I don’t think that will change.

At 853AM, Alaska time, Anchorage was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with cloudy skies. A broad area of low pressure crashing into western Alaska was sending an occluded front south through the Anchorage area, and substantial snows were being seen all around the Cook Inlet, however none of it had reached Anchorage by 9AM. With temperatures continuing to rise during the day, expect most activity in southern Alaska to be rain, though some snow my still mix in.
The system is winding itself up over the center of Alaska, and will continue to infuse moisture into Anchorage. Expect a snowy, rainy couple of days in Anchorage, with wind on the increase, though most of the moisture will be stunted by the high elevation of the Kenai Peninsula.
Tomorrow – Snow and rain, High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow and rain continue, High 45, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain and snow in the morning will become intermittent in the afternoon. High 40, Low 34
Tuesday – Mix of rain and snow showers. High 40, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a bit of rain, mixed with snow early with little or no additional accumulation High 44, Low 33
Tuesday – A bit of morning snow; otherwise, remaining cloudy High 46, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – .Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 42, low 32
Tuesday – Snow likely, High 37, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 38, Low 28
Tuesday –
Snow likely. High 38, Low 28

I estimated the NWS forecast, because they didn’t put any actual values. Who knows with Anchorage. They could be totally accurate. Here is the Alaskan radar.

Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works!

Accuweather has… not been good for the past year and a half. Their two day forecasts are often divergent from the consensus, and they pay for it. Perhaps they are too busy drawing up hurricane forecasts for 2018. Today, however, their divergent forecast wasn’t so divergent, and verified as the best in Bridgeport! They correctly foresaw the cool Friday and slightly warmer Saturday, but most importantly, they tied with us for the top. Congratulations, Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – .23 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A

Youngstown, Ohio

After all that Anthony time, I am officially back in the saddle for about 10 straight days. I’m going to get started today with Youngstown.

At 1233PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with light snow. A weak lake effect front had swept into the area in the last half hour, bringing the light snow from Cleveland southeast to Youngstown and dropping the temperature by about 5 degrees. An area of low pressure over Eastern Canada was introducing northerly flow, and the thaw of the Lake Erie ice has introduced the necessary moisture.
Fortunately, the pattern is more progressive than it has been over the winter, and a jet will establish itself over the Great Lakes, allowing high pressure to develop over the southeast, cutting off any additional moisture. Still, an area of low pressure over Canada will push a cold front through eastern Ohio Sunday evening, however with moisture stymied, expect only light showers to pass through on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 35
Sunday – Late afternoon showers, High 63, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 65, Low 34
Sunday – Few showers. High 64, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer High 62, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 65, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers High 65, Low 40

A look at the radar shows the light flurries in the area.

Bridgeport, Connecticut

At 1:54pm EDT, the temperature at Bridgeport, CT was 58 degrees under fair skies. A strong cold front approaching from the west is going to bring some showers and thunderstorms to southern New England during the early morning hours on Friday. Most of the heavy stuff should have pushed off to the east by the time noon rolls around, but some lingering showers directly along the front could still threaten the region. By early evening though, the front will have blown through, with some spotty low clouds trailing behind it. A trough looks to swing through portions of the Northeast and New England on Saturday, but downslope winds should keep clouds at a minimum.

Friday: Morning rain/thunderstorms, drying out in afternoon. High 59, Low 43.
Saturday: Sunny, few clouds. High 58, Low 38.

TWC: Friday: Thunderstorms turning to showers. High 61, Low 48.
Saturday. Sunny and cooler. High 58, Low 40.

AW: Friday: AM rain, becoming cooler. High 58, Low 46.
Saturday: Partly sunny and breeze. High 59, Low 41.

NWS: Friday: Storms until noontime, then couple of showers before clearing. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny and cooler. High 60, Low 40.

WB: Friday: 50% chance of rain. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny. High 60, Low 40.

Here we see the cold front off to the west bearing down on New England. After it moves through, however, it should be a fairly enjoyable weekend!

Record Warmth

I mentioned in Salisbury‘s forecast that they had a chance at some record warmth for both days. Well, they tied it on Tuesday, the 88 matching what they got back in 1929. They nearly matched the feat on Wednesday as well, when they fell just 1 degree short of the record for that date. TWC narrowly edged out VicWx for the top spot, albeit everybody was a good amount off in the temperatures as it’s a little difficult to predict two straight days of near-record warmth.

Thursday: High 88 (T-1929 record), Low 56.
Friday: High 88, Low 67.

Forecast grade: D

Nicer than SoCal

When Anthony put together his forecast for Rome on Sunday, he mentioned that I was off in sunny southern California. it wasn’t exactly WARM southern California. Temperatures in Rome reached the upper 80s for each day of the forecast period, making it an all together toasty experience in northern Georgia to begin April. Accuweather came through with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 87, Low 52
Tuesday, High 88, Low 50

Grade: A

Sunshine State Holds True

The Gainesville forecast had plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Some dense fog develops early Thursday morning and burned off shortly after sunrise, but kept morning low a couple degrees higher than most people had. All told, VicWx and TWC finished in a tie for 1st. AW didn’t live up to their moniker, once again, and brought up the rear. Apologies for the delay in the verification, there was a glitch in the system. No worries, it’s been fixed!

Thursday: High 84, Low 47.
Friday: High 85, Low 48.

Forecast Grade: A

Salisbury, Maryland

Our string of East Coast forecasts continues. This time we visit one of the hometowns of one of my friends, will she continue to experience the unseasonably warm weather they’ve been having there lately?

At 5:54PM EDT, the temperature was 79 degrees under fair skies. A few high clouds were found overhead as a frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley is lifting northward into the Great Lakes. Remember that large high pressure ridge over the eastern US that’s dominated the last few forecasts? Yup, it’ll keep things nice and toasty here too. The high today was 82 degrees, a new record high (old record: 80 in 1985). The next couple of days have an outside shot of cracking it as well, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Some fog is expected during the early morning hours Tuesday and burn off not too long after sunrise, but should keep temperatures a couple degrees higher for lows tonight. Otherwise a run at a possible record is in store tomorrow (88 in 1929), less so on Wednesday since the record is 89. If you’re wondering, the average high is about 64 degrees.

Tuesday: Some morning fog, few AM clouds, then sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 59.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 62.

AW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 50.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

NWS: Tuesday: AM fog, afternoon sun. High 85, Low 51.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 83, Low 51.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 58.

Some clouds off to the west will lift north into the Northeast for tomorrow. Meanwhile, all that nothingness over the Southeast will move over the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow.

High Pressure Continues

The large scale ridge over the Eastern US continued it’s stranglehold over the region, forcing the upper-level trough into Canada. As Ryan had mentioned, clouds were on the increase, but no precip was able to come close to Altoona over the last couple of days. TWC came out on top thanks to their slightly cooler temperatures.

Saturday: High 75, Low 51.
Sunday: High 70, Low 51.

Forecast Grade: A

Tobacco Road Success

Ryan’s forecast for Greensboro had low temperatures a good few degrees warmer than most everybody else. Turns out, that’s what propelled him to a victory for his weekend forecast! Can Duke duplicate this success in tomorrow’s title game vs. Butler? If he could forecast that as accurately as his Greensboro temperatures, Ryan would be vacationing in Vegas right now instead of the West Coast.

Friday: High 87, Low 51.
Saturday: High 80, Low 56.

Forecast Grade: B