Category Archives: Forecast

Davenport, Iowa

Off to the Quad Cities for this likely to be warm forecast. Enjoy.

At 552PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. A warm front that has developed through the morning has lifted through the Quad Cities, and Davenport was several degrees warmer than a few sites just off to the northeast of the city. The system is dong an excellent job drawing hot, humid air in from the south, and the temperature dichotomy should make for some interesting weather tomorrow and Monday, though most of it will stay northwest of Davenport.
An unseasonably strong jet trough over the Rockies is generating the area of low pressure in the Dakotas that is drawing the hot air north into Davenport. A ridge in the east is the stronger system, however, and is doing an excellent job of blocking any systems that will attempt to shift east. As a result, the jet will operate as a conveyor belt, with the next system setting up over Nebraska and following a similar track through the Dakotas. The result for Davenport will be even more warm air imported from the south.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 90, Low 68
Monday – Continued warm with partly to mostly cloudy skies, High 91, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 68
Monday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy, very warm and more humid with some sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the area High 89, Low 65
Monday – Breezy, hot and humid with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 93, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloud High 89, Low 66
Monday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 66
Monday – Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, low 69

Everyone else is calling for thunderstorms, but if they form, I think they will be on the other side of the Mississippi, and if they do develop, they won’t be terribly organized. Here is the satellite. There is a tornado watch in eastern South Dakota.

Dover, Delaware

Off to America’s first state, and the capital Dover for the weekend forecast. I think it’s going to be a mildly interesting forecast.

At 1255PM, ET, Dover was already reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. A weak surface low was feeding off of some fairly widespread instability in the center of the country, triggering showers and thunderstorms for most of the Ohio Valley and importing the clouds seen in Delaware.
The weak wave aloft feeding the weak circulation at the surface has certainly hung around much longer than was initially forecast, but it’s influence will continue to wane with a strong trough over the northwest moving into Upper Midwest. Still, the remnant moisture of the weak surface system will work it’s way into the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the threat for some murky skies and passing showers for the extent of the weekend.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of drizzle, High 71, Low 61
Sunday – Isolated showers, cloudy, High 70, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies (PM rain) High 72, Low 60
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 70, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with sun and clouds (PM Rain) High 72, Low 59
Sunday – Variable cloudiness with a couple of showers High 71, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am High 72, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM rain) High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 72, Low 59

That shower activity in the center of the country looks quite impressive on satellite. There are some weather watches with thunderstorms in Indiana and Georgia with this guy as well.

Quite a disparity

We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as anyone can tell you, it’s a challenging place to forecast for. It was for 4 of our forecasters on Tuesday when we put together the forecast for Great Falls. Victoria-Weather’s was the only forecast to call for a cool down after the rain on Thursday, and it paid off, as the low on Thursday came late and dipped to 35. This bugs me, because I actually brought our low up when seeing that the meteorological consensus was that the front wouldn’t carry as much cold air behind it. This is why your mom tells you to believe in yourself. Even after all of that, however, VW had a much better forecast than everyone else.
Actuals: Wednesday – .08″ of rain High 71, Low 51
Thursday – .06″ of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: B

Let’s get Oxnarded

With the rain they saw in Oxnard on Tuesday, they received 10 times their monthly total. Of course, they average .01″ in the month of May, so by many other people’s standards, the rain wasn’t too terribly heavy, but in Oxnard, it was quite a bit. Especially on the heels of last months .69″ of rain. It’s a veritable monsoon down there! The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .10 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Wednesday – High 63, Low 53

Grade: A

Great Falls, Montana

We have standards here at Victoria Weather. We wouldn’t. for example. allow ourselves to forecast fore merely Good Falls. No no, we’re not happy unless it’s GREAT Falls.

At 953PM, MT, Great Falls was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with cloudy skies. A system centered further south in Colorado managed to extend an inverted trough into Montana, triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms, of which some were spanning from Deer Lodge to south of Havre, with some stronger thunderstorms towards central Montana. Another shower tonight certainly could not be ruled out.
The upper level pattern is somewhat active. The precipitation in the area at this time is associated with a weak trough, independent of the overall flow. There will be a break in the shower activity for Great Falls on Thursday as this feature shifts east and dissipates, however a much stronger, more organized jet trough is angling into the Pacific Northwest, generally promising gustier winds. The strong trough will stall out and draw the independent wave to be absorbed back into the mean flow. Expect rain to redevelop in the afternoon, continuing a rainy midweek pattern and ushering in some cooler air.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms. High 71, Low 51
Thursday – Afternoon thunderstorms redevelop, High 60, Low 42 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. High 68, Low 53
Thursday Partly cloudy and windy. High 60, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow- Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 73, Low 48
Thursday – Cooler with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 61, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 63, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 70, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 65, Low 45

A look at the radar shows all those showers and storms I was JUST TALKING ABOUT.

Asleep at the switch

I said in the forecast for Lexington that Accuweather must have been in a dream world, as their forecast was very warm, given how rainy and cloudy it appeared like it would be. Sure enough, the high temperatures proffered by AW missed by about 10 degrees. The rest of us were too warm as well, as the rainy days in Lexington meant temperatures that couldn’t get out of the 60s. The Weather Service had the best forecast, but it wasn’t great.
Actuals: Sunday – .97 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58
Monday – .04 inches of rain, High 69, Low 58

Grade C

Oxnard, California

Out west we go to Oxnard, which is along the coast north of Los Angeles, lying along the Pacific Ocean.

At 951AM, PT, Oxnard was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with cloudy skies. A weak surface system was sweeping into the coast, bringing about it an onshore flow with clouds and drizzle covering most of the California coast. A simple pattern aloft was going to become more complicated over the next few days, to the benefit of Oxnard.
A seasonably strong jet streak lay along the coast and would curl inland to form a trough. Meanwhile, a secondary, undercutting trough is expected to rapidly develop over the Pacific Northwest, cutting off the instability and upper level support found further to the south, causing it to become short waved and rapidly advancing to the east. This will mean a more stable, quiet pattern in Oxnard after the dreary morning they are seeing today.
Tomorrow – Showers through the afternoon, High 66, Low 51
Wednesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 63, Low 53
Wednesday – More sun than clouds. High 63, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of drizzle in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 66, Low 52
Wednesday – Areas of low clouds early, then mostly sunny High 67, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 52
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 66, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning…becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 63, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly sunny except for patchy morning low clouds and fog. High 67, Low 50

A nice look at the satellite shows that in fact, it isn’t always sunny in Southern California.

It’s looking like summer

The southeast is generally very active with showers and thunderstorms through the summer. Its never a severe outbreak or anything, just a few cells that develop because of the heat and moisture of the area. This was apparently the case over the past couple of days, though there was a weak upper trough helping to perhaps expand the coverage. It was hit or miss in western North Carolina and Hickory, where the showers missed on Saturday and hit for a quarter inch of new rain on Sunday. Congrats to the Weather Service and Weatherbug for forecasting the fog on Saturday. Too bad they were 4th and 5th in the standings, however, with VicWx and TWC tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 84, Low 62
Sunday – .25″ of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: B

Dreary, but not too dreary

Providence was unfortunate enough to see some cloudy, drizzly skies the past couple of days, but there was enough sun that broke out yesterday that temperatures climbed about 5 degrees higher than anyone expected. The fact that they saw rain on each of the two days of the forecast period, however, gave Victoria-Weather the top forecast for the largest city in the smallest state.
Actuals: Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 65, Low 49
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 73, Low 55

Grade: B

Lexington, Kentucky

Headed to the Bluegrass State for our Saturday afternoon forecast. Will they get a blue sky forecast?

At 454PM, ET, Lexington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 78 degrees. A stalled boundary that lied east-west lay between Berea and London and was triggering some strong to severe thunderstorms along I-75, including one passing as close as through Richmond, though the heaviest activity was being seen further south, from Corbin to points southwest. Dew points along the boundary were pooling and a couple degrees higher, though it was apparent that the front was acting as a barrier between moisture regimes, as sites along the Ohio River were much drier than those along the Tennessee border.
The strong jet will shift out of the country, taking with it any remnant of the cold front that had swept through and keeping the country in a very quiet regime at the upper levels. There is a weak wave with almost no flow through it over the Rockies that will slowly drift into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, there will be little to no reflection, however it’s influence in upper levels of the atmosphere will be enough to generate fairly widespread thunderstorms throughout Kentucky each of the next two days, however the heaviest rains will come early on Monday.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 73, Low 59
Monday – Showers and storms more widespread, High 74, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers and scattered thunderstorms High 74, Low 59
Monday – Morning showers, possibly a rumble of thunder High 73, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 78, Low 59
Monday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms High 77, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until midday…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 75, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. High 74, Low 60

I don’t know what kind of dream world Accuweather is off in, but it must be warm. Here is the radar, looking deliciously summer like.