Category Archives: Forecast

Oxnard, California

Out west we go to Oxnard, which is along the coast north of Los Angeles, lying along the Pacific Ocean.

At 951AM, PT, Oxnard was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with cloudy skies. A weak surface system was sweeping into the coast, bringing about it an onshore flow with clouds and drizzle covering most of the California coast. A simple pattern aloft was going to become more complicated over the next few days, to the benefit of Oxnard.
A seasonably strong jet streak lay along the coast and would curl inland to form a trough. Meanwhile, a secondary, undercutting trough is expected to rapidly develop over the Pacific Northwest, cutting off the instability and upper level support found further to the south, causing it to become short waved and rapidly advancing to the east. This will mean a more stable, quiet pattern in Oxnard after the dreary morning they are seeing today.
Tomorrow – Showers through the afternoon, High 66, Low 51
Wednesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 63, Low 53
Wednesday – More sun than clouds. High 63, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of drizzle in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 66, Low 52
Wednesday – Areas of low clouds early, then mostly sunny High 67, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 52
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 66, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning…becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 63, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly sunny except for patchy morning low clouds and fog. High 67, Low 50

A nice look at the satellite shows that in fact, it isn’t always sunny in Southern California.

It’s looking like summer

The southeast is generally very active with showers and thunderstorms through the summer. Its never a severe outbreak or anything, just a few cells that develop because of the heat and moisture of the area. This was apparently the case over the past couple of days, though there was a weak upper trough helping to perhaps expand the coverage. It was hit or miss in western North Carolina and Hickory, where the showers missed on Saturday and hit for a quarter inch of new rain on Sunday. Congrats to the Weather Service and Weatherbug for forecasting the fog on Saturday. Too bad they were 4th and 5th in the standings, however, with VicWx and TWC tying for the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 84, Low 62
Sunday – .25″ of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: B

Dreary, but not too dreary

Providence was unfortunate enough to see some cloudy, drizzly skies the past couple of days, but there was enough sun that broke out yesterday that temperatures climbed about 5 degrees higher than anyone expected. The fact that they saw rain on each of the two days of the forecast period, however, gave Victoria-Weather the top forecast for the largest city in the smallest state.
Actuals: Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 65, Low 49
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 73, Low 55

Grade: B

Lexington, Kentucky

Headed to the Bluegrass State for our Saturday afternoon forecast. Will they get a blue sky forecast?

At 454PM, ET, Lexington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 78 degrees. A stalled boundary that lied east-west lay between Berea and London and was triggering some strong to severe thunderstorms along I-75, including one passing as close as through Richmond, though the heaviest activity was being seen further south, from Corbin to points southwest. Dew points along the boundary were pooling and a couple degrees higher, though it was apparent that the front was acting as a barrier between moisture regimes, as sites along the Ohio River were much drier than those along the Tennessee border.
The strong jet will shift out of the country, taking with it any remnant of the cold front that had swept through and keeping the country in a very quiet regime at the upper levels. There is a weak wave with almost no flow through it over the Rockies that will slowly drift into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, there will be little to no reflection, however it’s influence in upper levels of the atmosphere will be enough to generate fairly widespread thunderstorms throughout Kentucky each of the next two days, however the heaviest rains will come early on Monday.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 73, Low 59
Monday – Showers and storms more widespread, High 74, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers and scattered thunderstorms High 74, Low 59
Monday – Morning showers, possibly a rumble of thunder High 73, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 78, Low 59
Monday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms High 77, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until midday…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 75, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. High 74, Low 60

I don’t know what kind of dream world Accuweather is off in, but it must be warm. Here is the radar, looking deliciously summer like.

No cool down

While most of the cold front running through the eastern and central United States set up in a line type pattern, they were more of an assortment of clusters in Arkansas, and mostly avoided Little Rock. They only saw a trace of with the activity in the state yesterday, though there were scattered wind and hail reports across much of Arkansas. The biggest issue with these forecasts, however, was that the fact that the front hung well north of Little Rock on Friday. Temperatures didn’t drop off at all like everyone anticipated, but rather the stout southerly flow meant temperatures actually climbed a few degrees. The high temperatures Friday were about 10 degrees off as a result. The Weather Channel eventually got the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 86, Low 70
Friday -Trace of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: C

Hickory, North Carolina

Ah Hickory, one of the finest towns named after wood out there.

At 353PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with clear skies and a climbing dew point in the low 60s. A jet ridge was arcing through the east, with plenty of hot, humid air building underneath it. At the surface, the jet arc is representative of a warm and cold front, with the cold front parked just west of the Appalachians, with severe thunderstorms firing through much of central Tennessee, thanks to the sharp contrast in airmasses, but with little vorticity, meaning a low threat for tornadoes.
The jet is rather longwaved, and there is almost nothing behind it. Rather than sweep through the Carolinas, the system is expected simply to get shredded and disappear in terms of a surface based system. Expect hot weather to continue, though low level eddies will generate a few afternoon thunderstorms for most of the American Southeast, including Hickory and western North Carolina.
Tomorrow – Isolated afternoon thunderstorms, otherwise hot and humid, High 84, Low 66
Sunday – Isolated afternoon thunder, a degree or two cooler, High 81, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. high 84, Low 64
Sunday – A few thunderstorms possible. High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later; very warm High 86, Low 64
Sunday – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 83, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly cloudy High 86, Low 64
Sunday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny in the morning… Then partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81, Low 61

Accuweather’s sounds less like a forecast than a recipe. Couple of showers and a thunderstorm. Here is the infrared satellite, colorized for your amusement. The higher tops, which mean thunderstorms, are the more expressively colored, such as those over Tennessee.

Awash in shoddy forecasts

The first round of rain in Muncie really set the tone for the past two days. The rain came pouring down early in the late morning on Wednesday. The rain totaled over an inch and kept things cool for the entire day, capping the high 10 degrees off from the forecasts. The cooler day time temperature meant a cooler overnight low as well the next day, so Thursday’s low was about ten degrees off. The Weather Channel had the best forecast in Muncie, but it wasn’t a particularly good one.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.04 inches of rain High 60, Low 51
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 50

Grade: C

Providence, Rhode Island

Little Rhodey is our destination today. It’s a small state, but this is a big forecast! Ok that was bad.

At 751PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A warm front, that has become mostly stationary, lie through the Mid Atlantic, aiding in the generation of the clouds seen in the area. The system generating these boundaries is formed by a jet coupling that is actually at the apex of a ridge, and will likely be deteriorating over the next several hours.
The system will dissipated and occlude as it shifts into New England, leaving the moisture associated with it stagnant and abandoned. Low clouds and light showers will be the story for the next two days in Rhode Island, after the showers associated with the warm front arrive in the early afternoon. Expect only light showers, but continually cloudy skies to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow – Occasional showers, High 64, Low 50
Saturday – Cloudy with drizzle, High 68, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow- Cloudy with occasional showers. High 62, Low 49
Saturday – A few clouds High 69, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around, High 64, Low 47
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy High 68, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Cloudy High 61, Low 49
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of showers High 61, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 54

A look at the satellite shows the dying system in the Great Lakes.

I’m Ron Burgandy?

I don’t think any San Diego forecast-verification cycle can be completed without a reference to Anchor Man. This is because there is rarely any substantial weather in San Diego, and it was a funny movie. I noted in the forecast that everyone but V-W had the same low temperature forecasts. My forecast, which was a degree or two cooler on each day, ended up being closer, and the difference between a last place finish and a tie at the top with The Weather Channel. It was very close, top to bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 64, Low 56
Wednesday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A

Little Rock, Arkansas

At 6:53PM EDT, the temperature at Little Rock, AR was 83 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. Today has been a relatively quiet day over the area as an area of low pressure lingers over the Central Plains. A stationary front extends eastward towards the Ohio Valley and trails a cold front down into the Central Plains, which is where the focus of more strong and severe thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon. This puts Little Rock is sort of a No Man’s Land as much of this energy has been riding up and around a ridge of high pressure that continues to camp out over the Southeastern U.S. Other than a deck of high clouds that are getting blown off the storms to the west, central Arkansas had a fairly pleasant, albeit humid, day today. Thursday looks to be nearly a repeat of today, with very little eastward progress of the cold front happening throughout the day. However, the ridge of high pressure will be breaking down tomorrow, allowing for the front to start shifting towards Little Rock in the late evening. While I’m tempted to hold off on the precip getting into the area until early Friday morning, some scattered activity could make it in during the late evening hours. Friday will be a far more soggy day, with the front sagging right over the region, and becoming a focus of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, some becoming strong to severe at times. Not like the South needs any more severe weather after the last couple of weeks or anything.

Thursday: Dry for most of the day, but 20% chance of a thundershower late in the evening. High 86, Low 68.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms expected, some possibly strong. High 78, Low 67.

TWC: Thursday: 20% chance of showers. High 87, Low 70.
Friday: 60% chance of storms. High 79, Low 68.

AW: Thursday: 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 70.
Friday: 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms through the day. High 80, Low 66.

NWS: Thursday: 20% chance of evening rain and/or thunderstorms. High 84, Low 70.
Friday: 30% chance of thunderstorms. High 79, Low 65.

WB: Thursday: 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 70.
Friday: 40% chance of storms. High 80, Low 66.

We can see some impressive storms blow up off to the northwest and west of Little Rock, as evidenced by the popcorn like pops to some of those clouds, which are actually overshooting tops. Those occur when the updrafts in thunderstorms are so strong, they break into the stratosphere. In other words, those storms mean business.