Category Archives: Forecast

This sounds great

Right now in Minneapolis, its cold enough that I can see my breath. The past two days in Gainesville, they saw mostly sunny skies and temperatures that climbed into the low 70s. That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Not distracted by the amazing weather, Accuweather had the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 70, Low 42
Wednesday, High 76, Low 42

Grade A

Santa Cruz, California

As Ryan mentioned earlier, i’m covering the forecast and road trip updates today. They’re getting up a little late tonight however, as I encountered something even more difficult to predict on my way back from my CA vacation… airplane delays! Nothing like a 4 hour delay to brighten your day. However, off we go to Santa Cruz. Interesting how my vacation was bookended with forecasts for CA cities.

At 933pm PDT, the temperature was 54degrees with cloudy skies. A cold front is starting to push its’ way through Northern California, with the main low remaining off the coastline of the Pacific Northwest. Some showers are swinging through the San Francisco area ahead of the front, with a few lighter ones lingering behind. Once this band pushes through, conditions should be fairly dry for the remainder of the day, however some clouds should continue to linger through mid-morning. Some sun should break though for the afternoon and evening hours, making for a relatively decent day, albeit a bit on the breezy side. A second disturbance is looking to rotate it’s way through northern CA as well late Thursday into early Friday. Clouds are expected as it moves through, but light shower activity should remain off to the north. When Friday morning comes around, most of the low pressure trough should be building towards the Four Corners region with high pressure reasserting itself along the CA coastline. This means mostly sunny skies to kick off the weekend, with less wind than Thursday.

Thursday: A few early AM showers, then mostly cloudy. High 60, Low 46.
Friday: Clouds decreasing through day, mostly sunny by afternoon. High 65, Low 41.

TWC: Thursday: Slight chance of morning shower. High 61, Low 46.
Friday: Sunny. High 64, Low 42.

AW: Thursday: Possible AM shower, then breezy. High 60, Low 47.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 62, Low 41.

NWS: Thursday: Early AM shower. High 62, Low 44.
Friday: Sunny. High 65, Low 42.

WB: Thursday: Chance of light rain. High 59, Low 42.
Friday: Another chance of light morning rain, then clearing. High 60, Low 40.

Here we see the rain showers moving through the Bay Area. How long will they stick around this morning?

A different Columbus

Hey, this is going to be a weird day. I’ll start with this Columbus verification, but Anthony, who has been on vacation, will be back this evening to take care of the forecast and road trip for the day.
Back when the site first started, we always seemed to have forecasts for Columbus, Ohio. Now, we keep featuring Columbuses, but have moved further south. Does this mean we are doing well in Columbus? Eh, not really. The Weather Channel is though. They went away from covering health care reform and actually set about creating an excellent forecast. They navigated a pretty sizable temperature swing from Monday to Tuesday and blew everyone out of the water. From here on out, I’m covering politics and forecasting as an afterthought. How about that Bull Moose party?
Actuals: Monday – No precip, High 50, Low 40
Tuesday – High 68, Low 44

Grade: B

Avoiding the thunder

There were severe thunderstorms in Washington DC yesterday, which isn’t terribly far from Newport News. As it turned out, though, the thunderstorms popped up just south of DC and shifted off to the north, narrowly averting the Hampton Roads area. Newport News only ended up with three hundredths of an inch of rain, but the passage of the cold front that generated the storms in DC did knock down temperatures several degrees. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 55
Monday – High 70, Low 55

Grade: B

Gainesville, Florida

Today we will go to north central Florida. Boy, that sounds nice right about now.

At 1213PM, ET. Gainesville was reporting light showers and a temperature of 53 degrees. A weak band of light rain was running from Jacksonville down towards Gainesville behind a cold front that had pushed deeper into the Peninsula. The upper level low generating this system was wrapped up in itself, sending multiple waves into Florida behind the cold front.
The system is still part of the larger flow and will continue to move northeast towards New England, where it is already providing rain and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic. The jet will broaden over the southeast, providing a healthy barrier between any Springtime systems and the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Expect a warming trend with clear and sunny skies for Gainesville for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Clearing, High 69, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 76, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 72, Low 47
Wednesday – More clouds than sun. High 78, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly sunny and comfortable High 77, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny High 71, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny high 77, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 77, Low 44

And the satellite (because the rain was too light to be a really informative radar still) shows the position of that low.

Columbus, Georgia

It’s our first return trip anywhere since the site relaunch. Good for you, Columbus.

At 1151PM, ET, Columbus was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 44 degrees. An area of low pressure had occluded itself over the southeast, putting Columbus into what will eventually be the dry slot. Right now, the inflow behind the occlusion is trafficking in clouds and light rain to the Florida Panhandle. The system will slow it’s easterly progress as it continues to occlude.
The occlusion process and a more north-south reorientation of an undercutting jet will send the system north along the Appalachians. Columbus will be the beneficiary, lying within the remaining dry slot. As the system pulls off to the northeast, a trailing trough may brush past the region on Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing some overnight clouds. Expect clearing then through Tuesday with a warm up possible as winds die down.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, increasing clouds late, High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Cloudy early, then clearing and warmer, High 68, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early. A few showers developing later in the day. High 51, Low 40
Tuesday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 69, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cool with a shower in spots High 54, Low 39
Tuesday – Warmer with clouds giving way to sun High 66, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 65, low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. High 54, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 42

A look at the satellite shows us the big hairy system in the southeast.

Warm air advecting

I had mentioned that things would warm up in Richmond over this weekend ahead of a very Springlike system in the southern Plains. Hard to believe, given that it was the culprit for a snow storm in Oklahoma. Well, believe it, because that southerly flow ahead of the system drove temperatures even warmer than anyone was expecting, nearly hitting 80 on Saturday. That’s a pretty spectacular weekend if you were to ask me. The Weather Channel did see the warm up coming, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 41
Saturday – High 79, Low 42

Grade: A

Newport News, Virginia

There are a lot of sizable towns in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, as it is called. You have Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Hampton and, of course, Newport News.

At 154PM, ET, Newport News was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Southerly flow induced by a still developing system over the center of the country was bringing Summerlike air to Virginia and much of the east coast. The sunny skies and southerly flow promised to bring an 80 or warmer by days end.
An deep upper level trough is going to ride atop the subtropical jet right towards Newport News area. The jet orientation is going to lead to rapid occlusion, and the warm sector of the low will actually mean easterly flow for Newport News, causing temperatures to cool, clouds to mount and humidity to rise. The rain itself won’t arrive until Monday afternoon. When the rain does start, it will be heavy at times. Fortunately, the heaviest of the rain will pass south of the Hampton Roads.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 75, Low 53
Monday – Rain likely, High 66, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 76, Low 50
Monday – Rain and thunder. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm High 72, low 52
Monday – Rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; breezy High 68, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Monday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High 67, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 75, low 49
Monday – Showers in the morning…then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 67, Low 53

Rain is on it’s way. A very Springish system. That’s nice to see.

Richmond, Virginia

It’s a sad day in Richmond, where the hometown Richmond Spiders lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Bummer dudes.

At 1254AM, ET, Richmond was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 46 degrees. Richmond found itself between two systems, one a weak area of low pressure of the coast that was bringing rain and thunderstorms over the coast, and another, stronger developing low over the central plains that projected to develop further as it emerged into the Great Lakes.
The low off the coach will break apart as the jet shifts off the coast, however a sharp upper trough will emerge into the Great Lakes region to amplify the wet weather over the center of the country. In the next couple of days, the developing low over the Plains will begin to generate southerly flow for the Atlantic Coast, inevitably leading to a warming trend for Richmond.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 73 Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 79, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm High 75, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 76, low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 44

Apologies for this coming so late. I’ll try to do better tomorrow. Enjoy some satellite imagery of a quiet night in Richmond.

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B