Category Archives: Forecast

As hot as expected

El Paso lies west of the dry line, as Anthony mentioned on Thursday. They get nothing but scalding heat, a good toasty dry heat almost every day through the summer. The past two days were no different, with the highs dancing about 100, and the lows not cooling off enough for a northerner to sleep, that’s for sure. Victoria Weather and the Weather Channel tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday, High 103, Low 68
Saturday, High 102, Low 76

Grade: B

Visalia, California

Visalia, CA is found on the eastern side of CA’s Central Valley, nestled up against the Sierra Nevada. Very picturesque scenery is abound there, as I’ve driven past Visalia a few times in the past during trips between L.A. and Fresno. Will the rest of this weekend bring more nice weather?

In Visalia, CA at 11:55 A.M. PDT, the temperature was 72 degrees under sunny skies. Normally around this time of year we’re used to an upper ridge of high pressure spending most of it’s time out along the West Coast, kicking any frontal systems off towards the Pacific Northwest and further north, keeping CA pretty much bone dry. However, there’s currently an upper level trough sitting over the Western US and will slowly push its way eastward over the next few days. However, there aren’t many clouds, let alone precipitation, associated with this trough. The main upper low is found up in Washington and Oregon, keeping that portion of the West in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Down in Visalia, only a few high clouds were pushing through the area earlier, and should be a fairly pleasent day there today. The next couple of days look to be more of the same with the upper trough continuing its sloth-like pace towards the east. At least it’s keeping the temperatures from getting too terribly high!

Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 89, Low 56.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 55.

AW: Sunday: Sunny. High 83, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 88, Low 56.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 57.

We see most of CA being nice and clear at this time, with clouds bringing showers up in Oregon and Idaho.

The Marine Layer

The cold water off the Pacific Coast often leads to some early morning low clouds and fog. If conditions are just right, that drear can last well into the day. On particularly aggressive days, it can find it’s way across San Francisco Bay into Oakland. It did not during our forecast period, and the range of temperatures was wider for the duration of the period. Highs were warmer, lows were cooler and most of us were thrown. Accuweather correctly predicted the sunny weather and had a good forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 75, Low 49
Thursday -High 73, Low 51

Grade: A

El Paso, Texas

Off to El Paso, pretty much the westernmost point in Texas. But at least it’s not a far walk to get some authentic Pesos!

At 6:51 MDT, the temperature was 98 degrees with just a few clouds in the area. Tis the season for hot and dry weather over the Desert area of the Southern U.S., where temperatures often creep up towards triple digits. In fact, including today, 10 of the 17 days so far in June have hit 98 or higher. Also, most people don’t realize El Paso is at 3,740 feet above sea level. Often times during the summer heating, thunderstorms like to kick off over west TX/east NM over the plateau when upsloping winds like to get the atmosphere riled up. For El Paso, however, most of this activity is usually well enough off to the east for them not to have to worry about it. For the next couple of days, that looks to be the case as the dryline continues to linger over west-central TX and the monsoon hasn’t quite kicked into full gear yet. Friday has a slightly better chance at seeing a rogue thunderstorm, but either way, probably unlikely they’ll see anything but continued heat.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 103, Low 74.
Saturday: Sunny. High 101, Low 76.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 101, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 98, Low 74.

NWS: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 99, Low 72.

WB: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 72.

Here we see some of the thunderstorms going off over the high plains area of western TX, but nothing really back towards El Paso. And back in NW AZ, you can see the Grand Canyon even! Amazing!

Oakland, California

Heading to the Bay Area for today’s forecast that should, hopefully, be rather easy.

At 353PM, PT, Oakland was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. The static, laminar pattern that has been seen for the past several is finally breaking down, and a sharp jet trough is diffing into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is dangling through Great Basin and is generating a few clouds north of Santa Rosa.
The boundary will sweep out of the state early tonight, and the westerly flow is likely to continue in Oakland. This may mean some fog and low clouds in San Francisco, but Oakland will see predominantly sunny and warm conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning fog, then sunny, High 71, Low 50
Thursday – Sunny, High 71, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 76, Low 53
Thursday – More sun than clouds. High 75, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine High 73, Low 49
Thursday – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant High 70, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 69, Low 52
Thursday – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 70, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Clear in the morning then sunny High 74, Low 52
Thursday – Patchy low clouds in the morning then sunny High 74, Low 54

A look at the satellite clearly helps us find that front, but it’s pretty quiet otherwise for NorCal.

A smattering on the coast

The forecasts in Corvallis were bunched much better than they were in Hagerstown, and they all called for cool temperatures and some light rain through the forecast period. A trough collapsing at the coast did it’s part and brought that drizzle into town for the middle of the week. The Weather Service and Weatherbug had the top forecasts, correctly calling for the decided Pacific Northwest weather.
Actuals: Wednesday .04 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 62, Low 51

Grade: B

Summer is fleeting

Tuesday in Hagerstown couldn’t have been nicer. It was 80 degrees with clear skies, birds were singing and children were playing in the park. Then Wednesday happened. Almost a half an inch of drizzle fell through the day, and the temperatures stayed in the 60s all day. Rather unpleasant, and the bipolar weather did a number on our forecasts as well. Except the Weather Channel, who must have insight into mental disorders, because their forecast was a revelation, and they were 12 degrees better than the next forecaster, Accuweather. Well played, Atlanta.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 80, Low 56
Wednesday – .45 inches of rain, High 69, Low 60

Grade: A (for the Weather Channel, C’s and D’s for the rest of us)

Seems like it should be easier

The temperature and precip totals for Elmira were exactly the same on Monday and Tuesday. So why were the forecasts so errant? Well, it wasn’t terribly cloudy, but those that were there did keep the temperatures from climbing over 70 or dropping below 45, which meant that the spreads from our vaunted forecasters were a little off on every verifying time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.

Actuals: Monday, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday, High 69, Low 46

Grade: C

Corvallis, Oregon

Off to the west coast for the only time this week. It’s been rainy for weeks out there, could things be on the upswing?

At 935AM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. High pressure was beginning to nose into the Pacific Northwest, though clouds were still being generated with light westerly flow off the cool Pacific. A jet streak a loft was transporting the next bundle of energy into the area, expected to arrive overnight tonight.
The system, as it often happens in the west, will get mired in the Northern Rockies as the trough digs deeper into the Great Basin. It will then act as an inverted trough as another surface system develops in the High Plains. The wettest weather will be tomorrow morning, and there is a chance it won’t rain Thursday, but at the very least, it will be cloudy through midweek for Corvallis..
Tomorrow – Rain, especially in the morning, High 65, Low 56
Thursday – Cloudy with a chance for some drizzle, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 64, Low 55
Thursday – Showers possible. High 65, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cooler with rain High 64, Low 56
Thursday – Mainly cloudy with showers High 64, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 64, Low 54
Thursday – Showers likely. Mostly cloudy High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. High 64, Low 53
Thursday – Showers likely. High 63, Low 48

Pretty dreary, but this is what you get with a day on the west coast, right? Here is the satellite, showing some clouds streaming in towards Corvallis.

Hagerstown, Maryland

We’re headed to western Maryland for today’s forecast, which will likely be less interesting than what they saw yesterday.

At 1153 AM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The East Coast is now dominated by high pressure after yesterday’s strong cold front pushed through. The next system is still lingering off in the High Plains, prepared for any amplification by any perturbation in an otherwise laminar flow aloft.
A very short wave will appear on the jet by tomorrow afternoon, allowing the system to develop over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. It will march across the Ohio Valley towards Hagerstown and likely arrive Wednesday morning, mostly with stratiform rain, but with some thunderstorms embedded.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain beginning early, with some thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 65, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Showers possible. High 68, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant with low humidity High 74, Low 52
Wednesday – Cooler with rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Cloudy High 68, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 68, Low 53

Those late showers are really going to mess with the afternoon temperatures on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what happens.