Category Archives: Forecast

Las Cruces, New Mexico

I told you I would b earlier with my post today! Here we are, off to southern New Mexico.

At 1150 AM, MT, Las Cruces was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. The dewpoint was at 46 degrees, suggesting the dry line was well to the east. A weak upper level trough was producing an similarly weak surface low over the 4 corners. Flow across the Gulf was drawing north towards a stronger feature along the northern tier, and Las Cruces was able to stay dry.
The weak trough will recede north and help development along the norther tier. Overnight tonight if any moisture can find it’s way to southern New Mexico it will likely go up as a thunderstorm. After that, expect mostly sunny skies and hot weather, the typical summer time fare for Las Cruces.
Tomorrow – Early AM showers, then sunny, High 97, Low 72
Sunday – Hot and partly cloudy, High 96, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 99, Low 71
Sunday – Partly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon High 97, Low 68
Sunday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy High 98, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning…then partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 101, Low 68
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 100, Low 68

Weatherbug once again has some matching problems. Pretty totasting in Las Cruces, though.

Lewiston, Idaho

Apologies for the late night. I’ll try to get things out earlier in the future, you know, so I can go to bed.

At 1156PM, MT, Lewiston was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. An area of weak low pressure aloft dominated the southwest, and an exit region of that trough had itself established over the High Plains and Front Range of Montana. Lewiston found itself safely behind the wet weather, though not in the most stable of environments.
The pattern will be slow to change, as a strong jet pattern is not in the offing. The little change that does come however, will be in the form of improving weather. Flow moving across the Rockies into low pressure over Montana will keep things partly to mostly cloudy tomorrow, however expect sunnier skies and a degree or two more warmth in town for the coming days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly Sunny, High 82, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 79, Low 60
Saturday – Sunshine High 82, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sunshine High 76, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 81, Low 63
Saturday – Sunny, High 82, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. High 69, Low 58
Saturday – Sunny High 72, Low 51

Weatherbug’s text definitely doesn’t match the numbers they have displayed. I wonder what’s going on there. They say, for example, high on Friday’s will be low 70s, and upper 70s on Sunday, then they put those numbers up. Odd. Here is the satellite, showing a quiet Idaho chimney

Problems with the low

Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There was a thunderstorm in town on Tuesday, and some spotty showers on Wednesday, but the real issue for the Weather Service and Weatherbug were lows. Tuesday, temperatures stayed warmer overnight than expected, while the opposite situation came to be on Wednesday. Actually, the lows were only different by 4 degrees, but the forecast lows from the NWS and Weatherbug were different by 15 degrees. Victoria Weather, with our more baseline forecast had the top spot in Elmira.
Actuals: Tuesday – .19 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 79, Low 60
Wednesday – .03 inches of rain, High 87, Low 64

Grade: B

Asleep at the Switch

Apparently the reporting station in Visalia ran out of juice sometime on Sunday, or maybe the person there accidentally pulled the plug while watching everybody stumble their way down the Back 9 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open and didn’t notice. In any event, no reports were logged from 6pm Sunday till darn near noon on Monday, save for 1 lonely report just before 7am, a morning low perhaps? If these numbers panned out, it’d have been a lil cooler than forecasts, but still a nice weekend.

Sunday: High 84?, Low 51
Monday: High 87, Low 59?

Elmira, New York

Our forecast today will be from Western New York, and what is becoming a recent favorite, Elmira. How will it go? Let’s find out.

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There were a few lingering clouds leftover from the early morning in the valleys to the east, but generally the state of New York was quiet. Overall, flow aloft was rather dormant as well, however with summer time heating in full affect, even the slightest ripple will be cause for thunderstorm concern.
One such lower level disturbance will shoot from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into western New York by tomorrow evening. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, however after this little bundle of energy arrives in town, it will languish without any upper level support, meaning Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some drizzle in the area, however a developing system to the west will generate a substantial southerly flow, bringing with it some hot weather.
Tomorrow – Evening thunderstorms, High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers around, High 85, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 86, Low 50
Wednesday – Showers and a heavier t-storm; mostly cloudy and humid with the temperature near the record of 93 High 91, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 54
Wednesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms High 85, Low 70

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday. The model outputs are saying 90, which is what Accuweather (even MORE hurricanes!) is buying, but all the auxiliary data says that there isn’t a chance in heck they get quite that warm. We shall see. Below is a satellite littered with popcorn cumulus clouds.

As hot as expected

El Paso lies west of the dry line, as Anthony mentioned on Thursday. They get nothing but scalding heat, a good toasty dry heat almost every day through the summer. The past two days were no different, with the highs dancing about 100, and the lows not cooling off enough for a northerner to sleep, that’s for sure. Victoria Weather and the Weather Channel tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday, High 103, Low 68
Saturday, High 102, Low 76

Grade: B

Visalia, California

Visalia, CA is found on the eastern side of CA’s Central Valley, nestled up against the Sierra Nevada. Very picturesque scenery is abound there, as I’ve driven past Visalia a few times in the past during trips between L.A. and Fresno. Will the rest of this weekend bring more nice weather?

In Visalia, CA at 11:55 A.M. PDT, the temperature was 72 degrees under sunny skies. Normally around this time of year we’re used to an upper ridge of high pressure spending most of it’s time out along the West Coast, kicking any frontal systems off towards the Pacific Northwest and further north, keeping CA pretty much bone dry. However, there’s currently an upper level trough sitting over the Western US and will slowly push its way eastward over the next few days. However, there aren’t many clouds, let alone precipitation, associated with this trough. The main upper low is found up in Washington and Oregon, keeping that portion of the West in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Down in Visalia, only a few high clouds were pushing through the area earlier, and should be a fairly pleasent day there today. The next couple of days look to be more of the same with the upper trough continuing its sloth-like pace towards the east. At least it’s keeping the temperatures from getting too terribly high!

Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 89, Low 56.

TWC: Sunday: Sunny. High 86, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 55.

AW: Sunday: Sunny. High 83, Low 53.
Monday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 88, Low 56.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 87, Low 54.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 57.

We see most of CA being nice and clear at this time, with clouds bringing showers up in Oregon and Idaho.

The Marine Layer

The cold water off the Pacific Coast often leads to some early morning low clouds and fog. If conditions are just right, that drear can last well into the day. On particularly aggressive days, it can find it’s way across San Francisco Bay into Oakland. It did not during our forecast period, and the range of temperatures was wider for the duration of the period. Highs were warmer, lows were cooler and most of us were thrown. Accuweather correctly predicted the sunny weather and had a good forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 75, Low 49
Thursday -High 73, Low 51

Grade: A

El Paso, Texas

Off to El Paso, pretty much the westernmost point in Texas. But at least it’s not a far walk to get some authentic Pesos!

At 6:51 MDT, the temperature was 98 degrees with just a few clouds in the area. Tis the season for hot and dry weather over the Desert area of the Southern U.S., where temperatures often creep up towards triple digits. In fact, including today, 10 of the 17 days so far in June have hit 98 or higher. Also, most people don’t realize El Paso is at 3,740 feet above sea level. Often times during the summer heating, thunderstorms like to kick off over west TX/east NM over the plateau when upsloping winds like to get the atmosphere riled up. For El Paso, however, most of this activity is usually well enough off to the east for them not to have to worry about it. For the next couple of days, that looks to be the case as the dryline continues to linger over west-central TX and the monsoon hasn’t quite kicked into full gear yet. Friday has a slightly better chance at seeing a rogue thunderstorm, but either way, probably unlikely they’ll see anything but continued heat.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 103, Low 74.
Saturday: Sunny. High 101, Low 76.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 101, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 98, Low 74.

NWS: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 71.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 99, Low 72.

WB: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 102, Low 72.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 101, Low 72.

Here we see some of the thunderstorms going off over the high plains area of western TX, but nothing really back towards El Paso. And back in NW AZ, you can see the Grand Canyon even! Amazing!

Oakland, California

Heading to the Bay Area for today’s forecast that should, hopefully, be rather easy.

At 353PM, PT, Oakland was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. The static, laminar pattern that has been seen for the past several is finally breaking down, and a sharp jet trough is diffing into the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is dangling through Great Basin and is generating a few clouds north of Santa Rosa.
The boundary will sweep out of the state early tonight, and the westerly flow is likely to continue in Oakland. This may mean some fog and low clouds in San Francisco, but Oakland will see predominantly sunny and warm conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning fog, then sunny, High 71, Low 50
Thursday – Sunny, High 71, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 76, Low 53
Thursday – More sun than clouds. High 75, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine High 73, Low 49
Thursday – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant High 70, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 69, Low 52
Thursday – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 70, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Clear in the morning then sunny High 74, Low 52
Thursday – Patchy low clouds in the morning then sunny High 74, Low 54

A look at the satellite clearly helps us find that front, but it’s pretty quiet otherwise for NorCal.