Category Archives: Forecast

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B

Unexpected sunshine

Sometimes when you check a verification, the forecast isn’t so good but you feel all right about that. Myrtle Beach is a perfect example. We all anticipated a cool beginning to the week in Myrtle Beach, but a healthy dose of sunshine warmed temperatures up, in some cases almost 10 degrees better than what had been in the forecast. The near 70 degree highs on Monday definitely threw a few people. in the end, the Weather Service had the best forecast, but I would venture to say the weather was even better than the forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday, High 63, Low 47
Monday – High 68, Low 46

Grade: C

Fresno, California

My inaugural post on the new site! With a complete lack of weather to boot! Well, that’s what happens in California sometimes…

At 953AM PDT, the temperature in Fresno, California was 53 degrees under some high cirrus clouds. A ridge is building over the Western US with only some high clouds pushing into CA from a frontal boundary festering offshore. That front will affect just the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest and maybe the extreme northwest portion of California on Tuesday. Some thicker high clouds might make their way over the Central Valley of CA as the remnant front pushes inland on Wednesday, but dry weather is expected for much of CA south of San Francisco. What does that mean? Mostly sunny skies and warm weather for the Golden State. I’ll be heading out to California myself in a few days to thaw out, so I hope the good weather continues!

Tuesday: Few high clouds. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: A few more clouds, continued pleasant. High 72, Low 49.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 48.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 52.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny. High 74, Low 48.
Wednesday: Sunny, a few high clouds. High 74, Low 47.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 49.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 52.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 73, Low 47.

Outside of the white snow-capped mountains of the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains, there isn’t much to see over the Western US. Looks like bikini weather for some lucky Spring Breakers!

Midday thunder

I have been anticipating a rough forecast for somewhere for a while with the upper level low covering the eastern third of the country. There was too much room for a peek of sun to send temperatures skyrocketing, or the threat for constant rain to tamp temperatures down. For Columbus, it was a line of thunderstorms moving in on Friday before the heating of the day really got ramped up. All told, things weren’t as bad as they could have been, especially since V-W netted the victory.
Actuals: Friday – .59 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 50
Saturday .04 inches of rain, High 54, Low 43

Grade: C

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Are you excited for a trip the coast? After the past few days, they will be excited about this forecast in Myrtle Beach too.

At 845PM, ET, Myrtle Beach was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An upper level low continues to churn over the mid Atlantic with a substantial “dry” slot getting siphoned north into the Carolinas. Scattered showers, such as those seen around the Piedmont are still going to be a threat with energy swept east with the spinning low to the north. The current clearing trend, however, is a good sign.
The low will take it’s time moving. In 48 hours, it is projected to move maybe 300 miles. All this means little change overall for the east coast, however in Myrtle Beach, expect a dramatic change in fortunes. The lift to the north and east will further establish the dry slot over the Carolinas (again, a dry slot fed by the Gulf of Mexico isn’t all that dry) and trap much of the wrap around moisture behind the Appalachians. Expect clearing conditions and maybe a peek of sun over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
Monday – Clearer still and a little warmer, High 61, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. high 60, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 60, Low 44
Monday – Breezy with sun and some clouds High 59, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny high 61, Low 43
Monday – Mostly sunny High 63, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then becoming mostly cloudy. High 61, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 48

First time using parentheses in a forecast, I think. Here is a cool satellite from the Wilmington office, showing a few showers in the area.

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B

Columbus, Georgia

Will we find ourselves in southern Georgia with today’s forecast, as we try to navigate our way into a complex upper level pattern afflicting the country.

At 1251PM, ET, PM, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Just to the east, the most recent rake of rain and low clouds was continuing to drive eastward, allowing the Columbus area to see quickly rising temperatures. They found themselves 10 degrees warmer than their neighbors to the east. The overall upper pattern is still being driven by an upper low over the center of the country that extends it’s reach nearly from coast to coast.
Fortunately for the Southeast, there is only one more perturbation left in the flow of this upper level low, which will mean another round of showers and thunderstorms traversing the southeast tomorrow. If the warming trend continues today as it appears it will, there will be plenty of fuel in southwestern Georgia to generate a few significant thunderstorms around midday tomorrow. Expect some clouds and light showers on Saturday as the perturbation acts to pull down the upper low south into the Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, especially in the early afternoon. Some may be severe. High 70, Low 53 (non standard
Saturday – Cloudy with areas of drizzle, High 59, low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy. High 62, low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm; cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon high 70, Low 54
Saturday – Variable cloudiness High 61, low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 69, low 51
Saturday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly cloudy high 62, Low 46

A look at the satellite shows some abrupt clearing for Columbus. Not bad at all.

Hey, a verification!

We haven’t been able to fire one of these bad boys off in a while, but now we can look at Bay City, Michigan, the site of the return forecast. As if to show everyone that we aren’t going to take any funny business in this newest incarnation of Victoria-Weather, we marked our territory with an early victory. We made our greatest strides on Wednesday, when temperatures were unable to cool off overnight because of the increasing clouds, just like we envisioned. Huzzah!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 55, Low 30
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 48, Low 37

Grade A

Memphis, Tennessee

This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony’s forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.

At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it’s initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday – Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
Thursday –
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60

This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don’t now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.

Bay City, Michigan

All right, here we go! Back into the science of meteorology! Again, I want to remind you all that we have a new feed, so update any account. Let’s get back to real live weather forecasting!

At 1153, Bay City was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. There was a rather dormant pressure pattern over the region, at least at the surface. The pattern aloft was a chaotic mess, with Arctic troughs swinging through Canada, and a subtropical jet plowing through the southeast. Riding the subtropical jet was a sinusoidal trough-ridge pattern that was both canceling any development over the Great Lakes and enhancing development over New Mexico.
The wave pattern will devolve through the coming 24 hour, leading to the upper trough over New Mexico to drift aimlessly to the north towards the Northern Plains. Eventually, it will mean light rain showers for the Bay City area, likely not until after noon or evening on Wednesday. A decided lack of energy will mean that any rain will be light and scattered.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 53, low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, with late rain or drizzle, High 48, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 52, Low 30
Wednesday – Few showers. High 49, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 52, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a little rain; breezy and colder High 45, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 28
Wednesday – A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 45, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 53, Low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain. High 46, low 34

The Weather Service and Weather Bug really have the rain getting in there early. Will that bear out? We shall see. Satellite shows a quiet Great Lakes.