Category Archives: Forecast

Showing no fear

I had made a comment about forecasting for Billings that inferred that such a forecast would be difficult. Oh, how wrong I was. Well, that is if you ask The Weather Channel, who had 0 problem with executing a nearly flawless forecast. There was a dash of rain on Friday that threw everything off a bit, but otherwise, it was like they had no idea they were forecasting for the High Plains.
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 54
Friday – .01 inches of precip, High 79, Low 60

Grade: B

Clarksville, Tennessee

We’re on the last train to Clarksville with today’s forecast for the city off to the northwest of Nashville. They sure like their ‘villes in Tennessee, don’t they?

At 1152AM, CT, Clarksville was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. The entire region was in a heat advisory with heat indexes climbing to near triple digits as dew points were about 70 degrees. The entire southeast was under high pressure, and Tropical Storm Bonnie was closing flow to he north, keeping places rain free.
The upper level jet still rode well to the north of Tennessee. A trough at the back edge of the jet was trying to dip south, but it didn’t have much strength, and laminar flow will likely continue to dominate. What does this mean for Clarksville? Not much change. Continued hot and humid weather with no major storm systems are on their way. By Sunday afternoon, Bonnie’s influence will be mitigated and southerly flow off the Gulf will return, bringing with it some isolated showers and storms for central and eastern Tennessee.
Tomorrow – Sunny, hot and humid, High 98, Low 72
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy with some late showers and storms, High 96, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. Near record high temperatures. High 99, Low 73
Sunday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. High 96, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot and humid High 101, low 70
Sunday – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm High 96, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 98, Low 73
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 94, low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 73
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 94, Low 74

That is steamy. Looks like, as usual, Accuweather is going for the most sensational forecast possible. A look at the satellite shows how cloud free the southeast is. Rare to see this kind of clarity.

Sweaty St. Louis

St. Louis got under a warm front yesterday, causing temperatures to climb all the way to 96 with dew points well into the 70s. They had to pay their dues on Wednesday though, before those temperatures spiked to tropical levels. They saw three quarters of an inch of rain as that front passed through town on Wednesday and even then, temperatures were still in the Mid-90s. Such is summer in Saint Louis. Weatherbug had the top forecast in the STL.
Actuals: Wednesday – .74 inches of rain, High 94, Low 74
Thursday – High 96, Low 75

Grade: B

Jackson, Michigan

It was a stormy day today in southern Michigan. Will that continue again into the weekend?

At 1156PM, ET, Jackson was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 75 degrees. The clear skies would not last much longer as there was a healthy shied of rain just to the north and a supercell and an associated tornado warning just off to the southeast. The city was in a tornado watch as storms continue to rake Lower Michigan along a warm front that lay essentially across I-94. Expect storms to congeal somewhat and continue their eastward charge overnight
Yet another area of low pressure will develop over Nebraska and South Dakota overnight tonight and begin to move towards the low presently bringing the rough weather to the area tonight. The next system will track east-northeast into Lower Michigan by Saturday evening, bringing with it another severe thunderstorm risk, with tornadic storms another distinct possibility, as the triple point of the system will pass very near by. Fortunately, Friday afternoon and Saturday morning will be quieter, though the forecast period will be bookended by severe weather.
Tomorrow – Morning thunderstorms, becoming more isolated through the day. High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Thunderstorms again in the afternoon, High 89, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds and windy with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 90, Low 73
Saturday – Windy with scattered thunderstorms High 88, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; very warm High 89, Low 68
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm in the area; can be strong late; breezy High 93, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and hot, High 90, Low 76
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 88, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow -Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of thunderstorms, High 90, Low 75
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 88, Low 72

First time I’ve mentioned a tornado warning in a forecast. That’s exciting. Here is the radar, showing how close the tornado warning was to Jackson.

Billings, Montana

Off to Montana, which makes all meteorologists’ hearts sing with joy, because this forecast will be so easy. /rolls eyes

At 1054PM, MT, Billings was reporting rain with a temperature of 57 degrees. A weak perturbation in the jet was generating an area of low pressure over Wyoming, which in turn was kicking up showers and thunderstorms over eastern Montana. The severe weather was mostly out of the area, but rain was continuing on the back end of the low ad would likely persist for the area for a few more hours.
The trough that was bringing about the low pressure and the active weather will be enhanced in the near term as another jet will poke into the Pacific Northwest. This upper level support will interact with thermal influences to create broad low pressure over the Rockies. The flow over the Rockies will induce some lee side troughing in Montana which will exasperate the rainy, stormy conditions for Billings for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Morning rain, then mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 53
Friday – Isolated showers, High 83, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds (morning thunderstorms) High 84, Low 54
Friday – Mainly sunny High 81, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy (Morning thunderstorms) High 83, Low 56
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy High 82, Low

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy High 84, Low 56
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 57
Friday – Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 59

57 degrees, that’s the coolest we’ve seen around here in a while. Here is the rainy radar.

In their own backyard

As mentioned at no end, Atlanta is the home of the Weather Channel. One may expect them to take care of the forecast, especially with the way they have been forecasting lately, but NO. No. It was us, Victoria-Weather who absolutely dominated in the ATL.
Actuals: Monday – High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain, High 91, Low 73

Grade: A

Saint Louis, Missouri

I believe that this is the first time my forecast parade has taken me to St. Louis, the Gateway to the West. One of my favorite cities out there.

At 251PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid 70s. A line of thunderstorms has erupted southeast of the city but north of Cape Girardeau, indicative of the weak troughing that has been rippling through the Mid-Mississippi Valley for the past several days. A mostly stalled boundary was running through northern Missouri and Kansas, triggering another line of thunderstorms for that area. The Storm Prediction Center was indicating a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for the area.
The jet runs west to east just north of St. Louis, so not much change is expected over the next 36 hours or so. Some training lines of thunderstorms should be expected across most of Missouri until a ripple appears along the jet. At the tail end of the jet, there is a weak perturbation that will evolve for the next several days. An area of low pressure will develop over the Dakotas and start lifting a warm front north away from St. Louis. Expect things to eventually quite down then on Thursday with temperatures climbing to the 90s.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 77
Thursday – Morning showers and storms, then hot, High 97, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 78
Thursday – Times of sun and clouds (AM Storms). High 95, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, hot and humid with a shower or thunderstorm around; thunderstorms can be severe High 92, Low 79
Thursday – Hot and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 97, Low 79

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 91, Low 75
Thursday – Partly cloudy (AM Thunderstorms) High 95, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Hot and humid. Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 93, Low 78
Thursday – Hot and humid. Partly cloudy (AM Thunderstorms) High 96, Low 77

Looks to be hot and muggy in Saint Louis. Just another summer day. You can see the storms off to the southeast of town pretty well on satellite.

The Monroe Doctrine

Sure, you can forecast all the dry air that you want in the southern US this time of year, but eventually, there will be scattered thunderstorms and one of them is bound to clip whatever town you are forecasting for. This was true in Monroe and our forecast from Saturday, where everyone said the chance for thunderstorms was low, but still slipped them in the forecast, because we all know better. In fact, a quarter inch of rain fell just before noon yesterday validating the mutually held concerns. The Weather Channel had the best forecast (again) thanks to their temperature forecast.

Actuals: Sunday – High 96, Low 76
Monday – .25inches of rain, High 92, Low 76

Grade: A

A diamond in the rough

When forecasting for Wausau, there was one clear superior force in an otherwise mediocre forecast, and that was The Weather Channel, who nailed the top forecast thanks in large part to one thing: Sunday’s high. Things never warmed up yesterday in northern Wisconsin, as widespread clouds and drizzle dominated the region in the wake of some early morning thunderstorms. Everyone across the Midwest was anticipating temperatures that lingered more in the low to mid 80 range when they couldn’t even climb past 78. Well done, TWC.
Saturday: .02 inches of rain, High 85, Low 64
Sunday: .18 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A

Absent showers

The cold front moved a tad slower through the Northeast than expected, with the scattered showers and thunderstorms managing to miss the New London area. Temperatures inched upwards slightly on Saturday and remained dry. TWC and WB tied for the win with their warmer and dry Saturday forecast.

Friday: High 85, Low 69.
Saturday: High 88, Low 73.

Forecast grade: B