Category Archives: Forecast

Allentown, Pennsylvania

We’re headed out east to Allentown again with today’s forecast. For some reason, the Victoria-Weather Scheduletron 3000 likes to latch on to some cities over and over again for a couple of months. Allentown appears to be one of those cities early in 2010.

At 451PM, ET, Allentown was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. An east wind was indicative of the strong area of low pressure still found to the southwest of Allentown. The upper level low that has been the cause of so many problems over the center of the country of late is now centered south of the Great Lakes, extending an occluded front through Pennsylvania, where the fronts split at the occlusion point. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for western Pennsylvania, and Allentown happens to currently sit to the north of the warm front. In the warm sector, isolated thunderstorms are cropping up over Maryland’s Eastern Shore and parts of Delaware, all shifting to the northeast.
The jet aiding in the sustenance of the low will steer the system in a more typically winterlike pattern. The low will lose a lot of it’s organization and intensity and will stall over New England over the next two days. Overcast skies will continue for most of the next two days. Tomorrow will certainly see some rain for most of the day, though most of the day will be dry on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday – Early morning showers, then clearing slightly, High 57, Low 42 (Non Standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. Thunder possible. High 58, low 46
Tuesday – A few morning showers., High 61, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Rain High 56, Low 47
Tuesday – A blend of sunshine and clouds with a couple of showers, mainly early; breezy High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers. High 57, low 46
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. High 57, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 59, Low 42

A look at the radar shows the thunderstorms entering from the south.

Catching the nasty weather

Johnson City didn’t see quite as much rain as we had called for, but between the two days of our forecast period they did receive over a half an inch of rain, which isn’t peanuts. Like Oklahoma City, the previous city in our forecast repertoire, Johnson City managed to avoid the severe weather, however, which is of course good news, considering the destruction off to their southeast. Weatherbug, who wrote a novel for their forecast, had the top forecast in Johnson City.
Actuals: Friday – .17 inches of rain High 76, Low 46
Saturday – .42 inches of rain, some in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 57

Grade: B

Dodging the severe weather

It’s been a rough couple of days for the southern US in terms of severe weather. In Oklahoma City, however, they got lucky. It didn’t rain or storm in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, and they avoided any severe storms yesterday. Temperatures were down, which may have prevented the genesis of strong storms in their immediate area, but the bigger deal was that storms developed further west than anticipated and began to die out overnight. Accuweather and The Weather Channel had the top forecasts for the better than expected weather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 57
Thursday – .17 inches of rain, High 75, Low 61

Grade: C

Johnson City, Tennessee

We’re headed into the Smokey Mountains and the eastern tip of Tennessee.

At 555PM, ET, Johnson City was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Weak pressure gradient across the east belied the massive system developing over the High Plains, triggering the first real severe storm outbreak of the season. A warm front is extending into Tennessee is associated with this boundary, but is not developing much by way of precipitation. Even so, the presence of the boundary in Tennessee lends to power of the system in the Plains.
The cause of the system is a cut off upper level low over the western US. The subtropical jet over Mexico will lift north to intercept the low and transport it towards the Tennessee Valley. When the low pushes west it will tap into the Gulf and it’s moisture. The resulting rain and thunderstorms, which will arrive in Johnson City late Friday into Saturday will bring about torrential rains, with 1-2 inches of rain possible to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow – Late rain, High 74, High 51
Saturday – Torrential rain expected in the evening, with thunderstorms possible, High 75, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 74, Low 50
Saturday – Thundershowers. High 75, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a shower High 71, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 48
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 74, Low 48
Saturday – Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. High 75, Low 55

So that’s it. Doom and gloom coming Saturday. Here you can keep an eye on it as it approaches off to the west.

Sunny south Florida

Our forecast for Naples called for some typically active Floridian weather. Fortunately for them, all the thunderstorms that Florida saw the past two days went up inland, away from Naples and then continued to drift off towards Orlando and Lake Okeechobee. Florida thunderstorms are always tough to pinpoint, but it’s never a good idea to beat against them, regardless of what today’s verification suggests. The top forecast went to Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 79, Low 64
Wednesday – High 78, Low 69

Grade: A

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

A late night forecast for OKC, and we are in the midst of tornado season. How fun!

At 1052PM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. A perturbed jet over the Gulf and northern Mexico as generated several somewhat weak disturbances that have swung from the high plains to the Gulf and into the Atlantic. Currently, the next wave is developing over the Oklahoma Panhandle and is generating thunderstorms over northern Texas.
The southerly jet is expected to shift off east, taking support from the thunderstorms over the southern Plains, however this will be motivated by a developing closed upper low over the Rockies. A stationary to warm front will develop through Kansas, indicative of the warm, moist air moving into the Oklahoma City area over the next two days. Showers will not be widespread, but they will be possible in the afternoon each day, with stronger thunderstorms becoming a concern late on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, with passing showers and thunderstorm, High 71, Low 51
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy, with isolated severe storms before midnight, High 76, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 71, Low 54
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. High 76, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 74, low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and breezy; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm High 78, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy high 70, Low 52
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 73, Low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 77, Low 59

A look at the satellite shows the looming nastiness over the Rockies.

Naples, Florida

At 12:53pm EDT, the temperature in Naples, Florida was 75 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A lingering cold/stationary front that’s been found over the Florida Peninsula and along the Gulf Coast has slowly been weakening the last couple of days, but there will still be a decent amount of instability over the region. An ill-defined disturbance over the Lower MS Valley will slowly trek eastward through the Deep South over the next couple of days, enhancing some of the thunderstorm activity farther north over Florida. Tuesday should see a fair amount of activity over the northern 2/3rds of the state especially when the sea breezes converge over the interior part of the state, but Naples could see a few scattered showers still make it down their way. Wednesday sees that aforementioned area of low pressure become a bit better defined towards the Carolinas, giving them a good chance of some stronger thunderstorms during the day. A weak area of high pressure looks to build back over Florida and into the Central Gulf behind this system and keep southern Florida mostly on the dry side, but there will still be a few scattered showers popping up during the afternoon. Overall it should be a good couple of days for beach goers, but Tuesday will definitely be the day to keep an eye on the sky for more scattered activity.

Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorm. High 80, Low 62.
Wednesday. 20% chance of a scattered shower, maybe an isolated thunderstorm. High 79, Low 65.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 77, Low 66.

AW: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 61.
Wednesday: Isolated shower/thundershower possible. High 78, Low 65.

NWS: Tuesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 65.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 66.

Some moderate showers are found well off to the north of Naples and off over the Gulf. Some more of these might draw closer tomorrow.

Like day and night

The temperature in Jefferson City fell off a little bit form Wednesday to Thursday. After a balmy 84 degree day on Wednesday, a cold front and it’s associated clouds arrived on Thursday, preventing temperatures from even reaching 70. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug most accurately foresaw this dramatic turn for the worst (if you like hot weather), and ended up with the top forecasts.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 54
Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 53

Grade: B

Deja Vu

For the second time this week, we’re going to be verifying a forecast in Bridgeport. Popular place for us this week. I’m just happy we could oblige with a forecast that busted, due to somewhat nicer weather. Clouds were present overnight in Bridgeport which kept lows warmer than expected. On top of that, the showers some called for on Tuesday stayed south of the city. The Weather Channel tied Accuweather atop the leaderboard in this typically Springtime forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 58, Low 46
Wednesday – High 63, Low 41

Grade: B

Jefferson City, Missouri

Our forecast takes us to the capital of Missouri, and a city enjoying some 80 degree weather right now.

At 1153AM, Jefferson City was reporting sunny skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. Positioned squarely in the warm sector of a system moving into the Northern Plains, the area is seeing increased humidity and gusty southerly winds. The Gulf of Mexico is cool so far this Spring, so even though humidity is increased, it isn’t yet oppressive.
The cold front associated with the the area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is well defined, running from western Minnesota to western Kansas, though it isn’t particularly active, with only light showers being seen thus far. The system is rapidly occluding, and an area of high pressure is building over the southeast, cutting off most of the energy in Jefferson City before it can really arrive. As the pattern progresses east, the Gulf will reopen Friday evening with the high pressure shifting out to sea. The boundary will finally sag into Missouri and interact with the new found moisture, with showers and thunderstorms expected Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm, High 78, Low 58
Friday – Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, High 70, Low 55 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds (PM TStorms). Very warm. High 85, Low 55
Friday – Thundershowers. High 71, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 79, Low 56
Friday – Mainly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (PM rain) High 82, Low 56
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (PM Rain) High 82, Low 56
Friday – Cooler. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 69, Low 56

Here is a look at the satellite, showing that cold front very well over the Northern Plains.