Category Archives: Forecast

Summer is fleeting

Tuesday in Hagerstown couldn’t have been nicer. It was 80 degrees with clear skies, birds were singing and children were playing in the park. Then Wednesday happened. Almost a half an inch of drizzle fell through the day, and the temperatures stayed in the 60s all day. Rather unpleasant, and the bipolar weather did a number on our forecasts as well. Except the Weather Channel, who must have insight into mental disorders, because their forecast was a revelation, and they were 12 degrees better than the next forecaster, Accuweather. Well played, Atlanta.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 80, Low 56
Wednesday – .45 inches of rain, High 69, Low 60

Grade: A (for the Weather Channel, C’s and D’s for the rest of us)

Seems like it should be easier

The temperature and precip totals for Elmira were exactly the same on Monday and Tuesday. So why were the forecasts so errant? Well, it wasn’t terribly cloudy, but those that were there did keep the temperatures from climbing over 70 or dropping below 45, which meant that the spreads from our vaunted forecasters were a little off on every verifying time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.

Actuals: Monday, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday, High 69, Low 46

Grade: C

Corvallis, Oregon

Off to the west coast for the only time this week. It’s been rainy for weeks out there, could things be on the upswing?

At 935AM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. High pressure was beginning to nose into the Pacific Northwest, though clouds were still being generated with light westerly flow off the cool Pacific. A jet streak a loft was transporting the next bundle of energy into the area, expected to arrive overnight tonight.
The system, as it often happens in the west, will get mired in the Northern Rockies as the trough digs deeper into the Great Basin. It will then act as an inverted trough as another surface system develops in the High Plains. The wettest weather will be tomorrow morning, and there is a chance it won’t rain Thursday, but at the very least, it will be cloudy through midweek for Corvallis..
Tomorrow – Rain, especially in the morning, High 65, Low 56
Thursday – Cloudy with a chance for some drizzle, High 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 64, Low 55
Thursday – Showers possible. High 65, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cooler with rain High 64, Low 56
Thursday – Mainly cloudy with showers High 64, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 64, Low 54
Thursday – Showers likely. Mostly cloudy High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. High 64, Low 53
Thursday – Showers likely. High 63, Low 48

Pretty dreary, but this is what you get with a day on the west coast, right? Here is the satellite, showing some clouds streaming in towards Corvallis.

Hagerstown, Maryland

We’re headed to western Maryland for today’s forecast, which will likely be less interesting than what they saw yesterday.

At 1153 AM, ET, Hagerstown was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The East Coast is now dominated by high pressure after yesterday’s strong cold front pushed through. The next system is still lingering off in the High Plains, prepared for any amplification by any perturbation in an otherwise laminar flow aloft.
A very short wave will appear on the jet by tomorrow afternoon, allowing the system to develop over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. It will march across the Ohio Valley towards Hagerstown and likely arrive Wednesday morning, mostly with stratiform rain, but with some thunderstorms embedded.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain beginning early, with some thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 65, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 80, Low 58
Wednesday – Showers possible. High 68, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant with low humidity High 74, Low 52
Wednesday – Cooler with rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Cloudy High 68, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 51
Wednesday – Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 68, Low 53

Those late showers are really going to mess with the afternoon temperatures on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Tougher than Alabama

Yesterday’s verification went extremely well for us, despite the thunderstorms strewn across the southeast, as they often are this time of year. In Hanford, California, they are probably a few months from their next rain storm, yet somehow, our temperatures were off. Cooler, in fact, a problem that was seen across the board. The Weather Channel and Weather Service tied atop the leader board.
Actuals: Saturday – High 95, Low 66
Sunday – High 95, Low 67

Grade: A

Elmira, New York

It looks like a stormy day for most of the East Coast today, as a tornado watch has been posted from Portland, Maine to Philadelphia. How will it be just inland?

At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was behind the front causing the severe weather in New York, and was seeing clear skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm was still being seen northeast of Ithaca, and there was a remote chance it might clip the city before it eventually fades, and the rest of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures dropping precipitously.
The jet is generally laminar across the country, with a perturbation moving through New England leading to the thunderstorm activity. While high pressure behind the system isn’t strong, it will take hold with the smooth flow aloft for Elmira to begin the next week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist to begin the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 45
Tuesday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 72, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 43

And here is the radar, showing Elmira almost out of the woods.

If I coud only bottle this magic

The forecast from Victoria-Weather for Auburn:
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

There weren’t any storms in Auburn on Saturday(everywhere else in Alabama, however) but the temperatures came out like this:
Friday, High 84, Low 70
Saturday, High 86, Low 72.
Needless to say, we pulled down the victory with 1 degree of error with Friday’s high. So I don’t have to enscribe the “actuals”, I’ll just tell you that there was .05 inches of rain on Friday.

Grade: A

Hanford, California

We are going to the home of central California’s weather service. I can tell you nothing else about Hanford.

At 953AM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with sunny skies. The humidity in the valley was unusually high, with dew points in the low 60s for areas surrounding. High pressure was dominating the region, with a mostly northerly flow bringing in some of the unexpected moisture into the Valley from the low lying areas of San Francisco Bay. The sunny skies are generating the warm inland temperatures.
Mostly laminar flow over the northwest is generating disturbed weather over the Pacific Northwest, but at the same time is cutting it off from reaching south into California. If anything, the jet aloft will ridge, creating even more stability, heat and a little bit of humidity for Hanford.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, hot, High 93, Low 63
Sunday – Hot, High 95, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 96, Low 67
Sunday – Sunny High 98, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with brilliant sunshine High 91, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and very warm High 93, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow -Sunny. High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny. High 94, Low 64

The temperature forecasts are surprisingly divergent Here is the satellite, showing how sunny California is.

Auburn, Alabama

Alabama day continues here at Victoria-Weather. Let’s take a look at Auburn, a little bit further south than Decatur.

At 115PM, CT, Auburn was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. Showers and thunderstorms were being seen generally south of Auburn and Montgomery, though Alexander City to the northwest was reporting a shower passing over the city.
Weak low pressure dominated the US east of the Mississippi, with a small wave over the Great Lakes, and a jet trough over northeastern Mexico. The trough over Mexico will become more important for southern Alabama as the weekend approaches. With the heat and humidity already in place, no trigger has been needed for afternoon thunderstorms. Don’t be surprised if, as the upper level low shifts slowly towards the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms in Auburn are stronger and better organized for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid High 81, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 69
Saturday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 85, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 67
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 69

Low temperature spreads are usually the result of clouds hampering a city’s ability to warm up. In Alabama, the high dew points are preventing things from cooling off. Here is a look at the radar, showing those thunderstorms south of Auburn.


No, the title doesn’t allude to the mental state of Anthony and myself. It describes the summer time atmosphere in Decatur. As Anthony correctly described, the heat in the afternoons led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama, some of them clipping Decatur both Tuesday and Wednesday. As it turned out, the coverage of thunderstorms was enough that temperatures on Wednesday didn’t reach the 90s as had been initially forecast. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thanks in large part to out right-down-the-middle forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68
Wednesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 66

Grade: B