Category Archives: Forecast

Reno, Nevada

When I just started doing this forecasting thing, mostly for friends and my own benefit, Reno came up with stunning regularity. It was a distinct pain to forecast for.

At 1055AM, PT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies and very dry air. The dry weather was leading to red flag advisories for the area. High pressure was parked over the Great Basin, and overall jet flow was well to the north of Nevada.
A weak jet trough will move into the Pacific Northwest tomorrow and won’t really diminish through the period. Still, the monsoon in the Rockies will prevent any moisture from filtering into the Great Basin, and Nevada will be dry. Even if a boundary does swing past Reno, they will stay dry.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 56
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 92, Low 58
Sunday – Sunny. High 93, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Brilliant sunshine High 92, Low 58
Sunday – Bright and sunny High 92, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 90, Low 58
Sunday – Sunny High 90, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny 90, Low 56

Pretty boring stuff out of Reno.

Forecasting is easy

When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly saw that there was only 1 degree of error for the entire 2 day period. The high only hit 90 in Naples yesterday (only) which was shy of the 91 I had in there. Victory seemed to be a in the bag, but Accuweather went ahead and had a perfect temperature forecasts. Those rascals. The dry day on Thursday was the only thing that caused Accuweather any problems.
Actuals: Wednesday – .65 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday – High 90, Low 77

Grade: A

Record Heat

The forecasts for Gainesville had them a couple degrees below record heat for both days, with the threat of a stray shower or thunderstorm keeping them from reaching those levels. However, Mother Nature would not be denied as Tuesday saw a new record high and Wednesday tying the old record set back in the 80s. A brief thunderstorm did move overhead on Wednesday, but this midweek heat will stay with them for a while, or at least in the record books. TWC again edged out the competition to take home the win, with AW bringing up the pack once more.

Tuesday: New record high of 98, Low 77.
Wednesday: 0.03″ of rain in a thunderstorm, Tied-record high of 97, Low 75.
Forecast grade: B

The fickle monsoon

As suspected, the weather in Salt Lake City was largely dictated by a typically monsoonal flow. A HOT monsoonal flow. There was an unexpected splash of rain on Monday that threw off some precipitation forecasts and knocked the high down a few degrees. Dry air allowed the low temperature to register a full 10 degrees cooler than some had forecast on Tuesday. Salt Lake was a typically difficult mountain forecast that the Weather Service came in on top with, solely because they were the only ones to even hit at rain on Monday.
Actuals – Monday – trace or rain, High 96, Low 70
Tuesday – Thunderstorms reported but not measured, High 94, Low 64

Grade: C

Naples, Florida

Ah Naples, my home away from home. (I wish)

At 353PM, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees, despite an onshore flow, and partly cloudy skies, perhaps reflective of the flow. There was very little activity to speak of over the entirety of the Peninsula, and the Gulf and Caribbean were surprisingly quiet as well. There was a convergence of winds north of Naples that may eventually touch off some convection.
With no real tropical forcing anywhere in the Caribbean or locations being monitored for development, there doesn’t seem to be much to separate the next two days from any other by the standards of Naples. A weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate a northerly flow through most of the Florida Peninsula, which will keep things quieter than is typically expected for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Isolated afternoon storms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday – Chance of some storms in the afternoon, High 91, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Thursday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 93, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 78
Thursday – Mostly sunny with an afternoon and evening thunderstorm High 90, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, High 93, low 79
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 94, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 88, Low 78
Thursday – Partly Sunny with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79

It should be noted that the text in Weatherbug’s forecast doesn’t match the numbers. I don’t know what happened. Also, since I started this forecast, a storm went up quickly inland from Naples, as I sort of prognosticated. Here is the unusually serene Caribbean satellite.

Gainesville, Florida

Off to the Sunshine State we go, there summer thunderstorms normally rule the landscape. I also have family that lives in the Gainesville area, will they be able to ward off the summer storms or get some afternoon soakings traveling about the city?

At 12:53PM EDT, the temperature at Gainesville was already a toasty 93 degrees with a few clouds overhead. As I mentioned in my Salt Lake City forecast, broad high pressure continues to rule the Southeastern US, with a cold front slowly sagging through the Carolinas up into the Mid-MS Valley. This front will be falling apart over the next couple of days, but will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. While this broad ridge of high pressure will keep the front well to the north of the region, very hot temperatures are expected over the FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms are expected both days, but mainly over the western half of the peninsula since a general east to west flow should be in place. Gainesville will probably escape the brunt of the thunderstorm activity, but certainly can’t rule out a couple stray thunderstorms will soak some Gator summertime activities.

Tuesday: Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 95, Low 73.
Wednesday: Slightly better chance of thunderstorms. High 96, Low 74.

TWC: Tuesday: Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. High 96, Low 75.
Wednesday: A few scattered thunderstorms. High 95, Low 76.

AW: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms expected. High 94, Low 73.
Wednesday: A few less thunderstorms possible. High 93, Low 74.

NWS: Tuesday: A few early evening thunderstorms possible. High 95, Low 73.
Wednesday: More scattered thunderstorms expected. High 95, Low 74.

WB: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms possible. High 95, Low 74.
Wednesday: More scattered thunderstorms possible. High 95, Low 74.

A few thunderstorms are already popping off towards the west. Will they see some farther east today? Time will tell…

Salt Lake City, Utah

At 10:53AM MDT, the temperature was 86 degrees under clear skies. With a mid-level trough parked off the CA coast, and general high pressure camped out over the Southeastern portion of the country, Salt Lake City is caught in no-man’s land with weak flow and systems staying well off to the north. That doesn’t mean SLC won’t be seeing some weather over the next couple of days, however, as it’s monsoon season over the Western US! With the high pressure sitting over the Southeast, more moisture than normal is pushed over the Four Corners and Intermountain West region. Given the hot temperatures that occur on a daily basis throughout the summer, scattered thunderstorms are a daily occurrence. Most of the action for Monday will be towards the south and east of Utah’s capital, but Tuesday will see a better shot at storms creeping towards the city. Monday, however, will be the hotter of the days, with the mercury flirting with triple digits.

Monday: Increasing clouds in afternoon, hot. High 99, Low 69.
Tuesday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 92, Low 70.

TWC: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 97, Low 71.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, afternoon thunderstorms possible. High 91, Low 70.

AW: Monday: Some sun, increasing clouds. High 100, Low 70.
Tuesday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 95, Low 71.

NWS: Monday: Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 97, Low 73.
Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 93, Low 74.

WB: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 72.
Tuesday: Scattered evening thunderstorms. High 91, Low 74.

Mostly clear skies over the region now, with that pesky marine layer still affecting the CA coastline. Beachgoers there will prob want to head to UT to enjoy some sizzling sun!

Soggy Weekend

The system that Ryan mentioned heading for Jackson did pretty much as advertised, bringing a couple bouts of storms to the region Friday and Saturday. Friday saw a couple heavy thunderstorms roll through the area, with gusts upwards of 40mph and dumping over an inch and a half of rain. The cloud cover kept temperatures far lower than most people thought on Saturday, leading the way for TWC to take the top spot. Seems like they can forecast for everywhere except right outside their own building lately.

Friday: 1.65″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 91, Low 73.
Saturday: 0.21″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 84, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B

Showing no fear

I had made a comment about forecasting for Billings that inferred that such a forecast would be difficult. Oh, how wrong I was. Well, that is if you ask The Weather Channel, who had 0 problem with executing a nearly flawless forecast. There was a dash of rain on Friday that threw everything off a bit, but otherwise, it was like they had no idea they were forecasting for the High Plains.
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 54
Friday – .01 inches of precip, High 79, Low 60

Grade: B

Clarksville, Tennessee

We’re on the last train to Clarksville with today’s forecast for the city off to the northwest of Nashville. They sure like their ‘villes in Tennessee, don’t they?

At 1152AM, CT, Clarksville was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. The entire region was in a heat advisory with heat indexes climbing to near triple digits as dew points were about 70 degrees. The entire southeast was under high pressure, and Tropical Storm Bonnie was closing flow to he north, keeping places rain free.
The upper level jet still rode well to the north of Tennessee. A trough at the back edge of the jet was trying to dip south, but it didn’t have much strength, and laminar flow will likely continue to dominate. What does this mean for Clarksville? Not much change. Continued hot and humid weather with no major storm systems are on their way. By Sunday afternoon, Bonnie’s influence will be mitigated and southerly flow off the Gulf will return, bringing with it some isolated showers and storms for central and eastern Tennessee.
Tomorrow – Sunny, hot and humid, High 98, Low 72
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy with some late showers and storms, High 96, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. Near record high temperatures. High 99, Low 73
Sunday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. High 96, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot and humid High 101, low 70
Sunday – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm High 96, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 98, Low 73
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 94, low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 73
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 94, Low 74

That is steamy. Looks like, as usual, Accuweather is going for the most sensational forecast possible. A look at the satellite shows how cloud free the southeast is. Rare to see this kind of clarity.