Category Archives: Forecast

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B

Columbus, Georgia

Will we find ourselves in southern Georgia with today’s forecast, as we try to navigate our way into a complex upper level pattern afflicting the country.

At 1251PM, ET, PM, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Just to the east, the most recent rake of rain and low clouds was continuing to drive eastward, allowing the Columbus area to see quickly rising temperatures. They found themselves 10 degrees warmer than their neighbors to the east. The overall upper pattern is still being driven by an upper low over the center of the country that extends it’s reach nearly from coast to coast.
Fortunately for the Southeast, there is only one more perturbation left in the flow of this upper level low, which will mean another round of showers and thunderstorms traversing the southeast tomorrow. If the warming trend continues today as it appears it will, there will be plenty of fuel in southwestern Georgia to generate a few significant thunderstorms around midday tomorrow. Expect some clouds and light showers on Saturday as the perturbation acts to pull down the upper low south into the Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, especially in the early afternoon. Some may be severe. High 70, Low 53 (non standard
Saturday – Cloudy with areas of drizzle, High 59, low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy. High 62, low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm; cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon high 70, Low 54
Saturday – Variable cloudiness High 61, low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 69, low 51
Saturday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly cloudy high 62, Low 46

A look at the satellite shows some abrupt clearing for Columbus. Not bad at all.

Hey, a verification!

We haven’t been able to fire one of these bad boys off in a while, but now we can look at Bay City, Michigan, the site of the return forecast. As if to show everyone that we aren’t going to take any funny business in this newest incarnation of Victoria-Weather, we marked our territory with an early victory. We made our greatest strides on Wednesday, when temperatures were unable to cool off overnight because of the increasing clouds, just like we envisioned. Huzzah!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 55, Low 30
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 48, Low 37

Grade A

Memphis, Tennessee

This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony’s forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.

At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it’s initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday – Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
Thursday –
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60

This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don’t now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.

Bay City, Michigan

All right, here we go! Back into the science of meteorology! Again, I want to remind you all that we have a new feed, so update any account. Let’s get back to real live weather forecasting!

At 1153, Bay City was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. There was a rather dormant pressure pattern over the region, at least at the surface. The pattern aloft was a chaotic mess, with Arctic troughs swinging through Canada, and a subtropical jet plowing through the southeast. Riding the subtropical jet was a sinusoidal trough-ridge pattern that was both canceling any development over the Great Lakes and enhancing development over New Mexico.
The wave pattern will devolve through the coming 24 hour, leading to the upper trough over New Mexico to drift aimlessly to the north towards the Northern Plains. Eventually, it will mean light rain showers for the Bay City area, likely not until after noon or evening on Wednesday. A decided lack of energy will mean that any rain will be light and scattered.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 53, low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, with late rain or drizzle, High 48, Low 35

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 52, Low 30
Wednesday – Few showers. High 49, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 52, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a little rain; breezy and colder High 45, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 28
Wednesday – A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 45, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 53, Low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain. High 46, low 34

The Weather Service and Weather Bug really have the rain getting in there early. Will that bear out? We shall see. Satellite shows a quiet Great Lakes.