Category Archives: Forecast

Warm air advecting

I had mentioned that things would warm up in Richmond over this weekend ahead of a very Springlike system in the southern Plains. Hard to believe, given that it was the culprit for a snow storm in Oklahoma. Well, believe it, because that southerly flow ahead of the system drove temperatures even warmer than anyone was expecting, nearly hitting 80 on Saturday. That’s a pretty spectacular weekend if you were to ask me. The Weather Channel did see the warm up coming, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 41
Saturday – High 79, Low 42

Grade: A

Newport News, Virginia

There are a lot of sizable towns in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, as it is called. You have Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Hampton and, of course, Newport News.

At 154PM, ET, Newport News was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Southerly flow induced by a still developing system over the center of the country was bringing Summerlike air to Virginia and much of the east coast. The sunny skies and southerly flow promised to bring an 80 or warmer by days end.
An deep upper level trough is going to ride atop the subtropical jet right towards Newport News area. The jet orientation is going to lead to rapid occlusion, and the warm sector of the low will actually mean easterly flow for Newport News, causing temperatures to cool, clouds to mount and humidity to rise. The rain itself won’t arrive until Monday afternoon. When the rain does start, it will be heavy at times. Fortunately, the heaviest of the rain will pass south of the Hampton Roads.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 75, Low 53
Monday – Rain likely, High 66, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 76, Low 50
Monday – Rain and thunder. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm High 72, low 52
Monday – Rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; breezy High 68, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Monday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High 67, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 75, low 49
Monday – Showers in the morning…then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 67, Low 53

Rain is on it’s way. A very Springish system. That’s nice to see.

Richmond, Virginia

It’s a sad day in Richmond, where the hometown Richmond Spiders lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Bummer dudes.

At 1254AM, ET, Richmond was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 46 degrees. Richmond found itself between two systems, one a weak area of low pressure of the coast that was bringing rain and thunderstorms over the coast, and another, stronger developing low over the central plains that projected to develop further as it emerged into the Great Lakes.
The low off the coach will break apart as the jet shifts off the coast, however a sharp upper trough will emerge into the Great Lakes region to amplify the wet weather over the center of the country. In the next couple of days, the developing low over the Plains will begin to generate southerly flow for the Atlantic Coast, inevitably leading to a warming trend for Richmond.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 73 Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 79, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm High 75, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 76, low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 44

Apologies for this coming so late. I’ll try to do better tomorrow. Enjoy some satellite imagery of a quiet night in Richmond.

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B

Unexpected sunshine

Sometimes when you check a verification, the forecast isn’t so good but you feel all right about that. Myrtle Beach is a perfect example. We all anticipated a cool beginning to the week in Myrtle Beach, but a healthy dose of sunshine warmed temperatures up, in some cases almost 10 degrees better than what had been in the forecast. The near 70 degree highs on Monday definitely threw a few people. in the end, the Weather Service had the best forecast, but I would venture to say the weather was even better than the forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday, High 63, Low 47
Monday – High 68, Low 46

Grade: C

Fresno, California

My inaugural post on the new site! With a complete lack of weather to boot! Well, that’s what happens in California sometimes…

At 953AM PDT, the temperature in Fresno, California was 53 degrees under some high cirrus clouds. A ridge is building over the Western US with only some high clouds pushing into CA from a frontal boundary festering offshore. That front will affect just the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest and maybe the extreme northwest portion of California on Tuesday. Some thicker high clouds might make their way over the Central Valley of CA as the remnant front pushes inland on Wednesday, but dry weather is expected for much of CA south of San Francisco. What does that mean? Mostly sunny skies and warm weather for the Golden State. I’ll be heading out to California myself in a few days to thaw out, so I hope the good weather continues!

Tuesday: Few high clouds. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: A few more clouds, continued pleasant. High 72, Low 49.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 48.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 52.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny. High 74, Low 48.
Wednesday: Sunny, a few high clouds. High 74, Low 47.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 49.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 52.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 73, Low 47.

Outside of the white snow-capped mountains of the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains, there isn’t much to see over the Western US. Looks like bikini weather for some lucky Spring Breakers!

Midday thunder

I have been anticipating a rough forecast for somewhere for a while with the upper level low covering the eastern third of the country. There was too much room for a peek of sun to send temperatures skyrocketing, or the threat for constant rain to tamp temperatures down. For Columbus, it was a line of thunderstorms moving in on Friday before the heating of the day really got ramped up. All told, things weren’t as bad as they could have been, especially since V-W netted the victory.
Actuals: Friday – .59 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 50
Saturday .04 inches of rain, High 54, Low 43

Grade: C

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Are you excited for a trip the coast? After the past few days, they will be excited about this forecast in Myrtle Beach too.

At 845PM, ET, Myrtle Beach was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. An upper level low continues to churn over the mid Atlantic with a substantial “dry” slot getting siphoned north into the Carolinas. Scattered showers, such as those seen around the Piedmont are still going to be a threat with energy swept east with the spinning low to the north. The current clearing trend, however, is a good sign.
The low will take it’s time moving. In 48 hours, it is projected to move maybe 300 miles. All this means little change overall for the east coast, however in Myrtle Beach, expect a dramatic change in fortunes. The lift to the north and east will further establish the dry slot over the Carolinas (again, a dry slot fed by the Gulf of Mexico isn’t all that dry) and trap much of the wrap around moisture behind the Appalachians. Expect clearing conditions and maybe a peek of sun over the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
Monday – Clearer still and a little warmer, High 61, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. high 60, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 60, Low 44
Monday – Breezy with sun and some clouds High 59, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny high 61, Low 43
Monday – Mostly sunny High 63, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then becoming mostly cloudy. High 61, Low 44
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 48

First time using parentheses in a forecast, I think. Here is a cool satellite from the Wilmington office, showing a few showers in the area.

A little more organized

The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53

Grade: B

Columbus, Georgia

Will we find ourselves in southern Georgia with today’s forecast, as we try to navigate our way into a complex upper level pattern afflicting the country.

At 1251PM, ET, PM, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Just to the east, the most recent rake of rain and low clouds was continuing to drive eastward, allowing the Columbus area to see quickly rising temperatures. They found themselves 10 degrees warmer than their neighbors to the east. The overall upper pattern is still being driven by an upper low over the center of the country that extends it’s reach nearly from coast to coast.
Fortunately for the Southeast, there is only one more perturbation left in the flow of this upper level low, which will mean another round of showers and thunderstorms traversing the southeast tomorrow. If the warming trend continues today as it appears it will, there will be plenty of fuel in southwestern Georgia to generate a few significant thunderstorms around midday tomorrow. Expect some clouds and light showers on Saturday as the perturbation acts to pull down the upper low south into the Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, especially in the early afternoon. Some may be severe. High 70, Low 53 (non standard
Saturday – Cloudy with areas of drizzle, High 59, low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy. High 62, low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm; cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon high 70, Low 54
Saturday – Variable cloudiness High 61, low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 69, low 51
Saturday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly cloudy high 62, Low 46

A look at the satellite shows some abrupt clearing for Columbus. Not bad at all.