Category Archives: Forecast


On Wednesday morning, a thunderstorm erupted over Amarillo in the mid morning amid cloudy skies. The sun never came out with showers and storms in the area for the entire day, which led temperatures to remain a lot cooler than anticipated. The nearest anyone got to the correct high was The Weather Channel, and they were 11 degrees too warm. The daily high on Monday in Amarillo was a paltry 77 degrees. Things bounced back to 89 on Tuesday, but that bizarre looking number on Monday really stuck out. The Weather Channel, more for their near perfection on the other verifying times, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .24 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – .31 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 66

Grade C

Grand Forks, North Dakota

It’s been a long stretch for residents of Grand Forks, along the Red River bordering Minnesota. Flooding seems to be a seasonal affair and lately the entire area has been raked by strong and severe thunderstorms. That seems to be at it’s end at long last. Let’s see if it lasts.

At 1253PM, CT, Grand Forks was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees and clear skies with gusty west-northwest winds. A broad area of low pressure over Ontario was reminiscent of a typically autumnal pattern and was pumping in the cool crisp air to much of the Upper Midwest and keeping things decidedly stable.
A steady northwesterly breeze is likely to persist thanks to the strong area of low pressure and it’s associated dominant jet pattern which will keep things cool for the next 24-36 hours. An undercutting jet will develop south of North Dakota by the end of the day tomorrow, which will aid in the generation of a weak wave that will ripple along the Canadian border by Wednesday morning. Some light showers will be possible Wednesday morning followed by some reinforcing cool air during the day as the weaker low gets absorbed by the stronger system to the north.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (Late PM rain), High 80, Low 41
Wednesday – Morning showers, then becoming mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78, Low 44
Wednesday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 76, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and breezy (rain after 9) High 76, Low 42
Wednesday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around High 74, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (rain after 7pm) High 76, Low 44
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 76, Low 44
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 74, Low 52

I almost went with Weatherbug and said no rain in Grand Forks for Tuesday night, but I eventually relented. I should note that one model is putting Grand Forks at a low of 38 night tonight. That’s awful. Here is the clear skies radar.

Excuse me while I eat my crow

I made fun of Accuweather during the forecast for their seemingly ostentatious prediction of a high of 97 on Sunday in Chattanooga. Color me surprised when I saw that the high temperature actually did reach 97 ahead of a weak cold front that didn’t produce any wet weather for the Chattanooga area. Of course, there was a bit of rain with the isolated storms on Saturday. Really, nothing went quite as expected over the weekend for most of us, but Accuweather did come away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 92, Low 77
Sunday – High 97, Low 76

Grade: B

Amarillo, Texas

At 1053pm CDT, the temperature in Amarillo, TX is 79 degrees under fair skies. A few thunderstorms rumbled near the area earlier today as a stationary front sits north of the region. Monsoonal moisture will continue pushing over the Four Corners region While the tail end of the stationary boundary continues to sit over the Red River Valley. However, the front looks to break up as southerly flow increases over the High Plains late Monday into Tuesday and the strong high pressure to the north weaken and shift eastward. This will push additional thunderstorm activity into portions of the High Plains to the Central and even Northern Plains on Tuesday. Thunderstorms will probably be more concentrated in the Panhandle regions of OK/TX on Monday than Tuesday, but both will see chances of wet weather and even a shot of a strong to severe storm traverse the countryside. Tuesday will see a slight uptick in temperatures and humidity as well.

Monday: Scattered thunderstorms during afternoon and evening, a couple strong storms possible. High 90, Low 66.
Tuesday: Isolated thunderstorms. High 92, Low 67.

TWC: Monday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 66.
Tuesday: Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 89, Low 65.

AW: Monday: Some sun with thunderstorms expected. High 91, Low 67.
Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms over region. High 91, Low 66.

NWS: Monday: Some scattered thunderstorms. High 89. Low 67.
Tuesday: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, Low 66.

WB: Monday: 30% chance of shower/thunderstorm activity. High 89, Low 67.
Tuesday: Early AM showers. High 92, Low 66. (Hmmm numbers look familiar)

Some of our friendly neighborhood thunderstorm activity continues to camp out over NM this evening. Tomorrow will see this activity push closer to the city, but will it make a direct hit?

Soggy Start to Weekend

The dissipating system that moved in from the Gulf continues to spin itself out over the Deep South, bringing some periods of rain to the Jackson area. Friday saw over half-inch fall, including 0.30″ in only 7 minutes at one point. Saturday saw slightly less rain over the region, but with cooler temperatures than most people predicted. TWC had a significantly cooler high for Saturday than everybody else, and turned out to be closest with it only topped out at 89. Then again, the Jackson ASOS decided to go kaput from 11am-230pm. Perhaps Jim Cantore ulplugged it to keep TWC on top? The world may never know…

Friday: 0.59″ of rain. High 95, Low 75.
Saturday: 0.11″ of rain. High 89 (maybe?), Low 75.
Forecast Grade: B

Chattanooga, Tennessee

We’re keeping it in the southeast this early afternoon with a trip to eastern Tennessee.

At 1253PM, ET, Chattanooga was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with clear skies. The remnants of TD 5 continued to spin idly over southern Mississippi, which was cutting off much of the moisture that would typically be expected for the area this time of year. There were still isolated cells over north Georgia, but most of the area was free of thunderstorms.
The weak remnants of 5 will continue to reside over the eastern Gulf Coast for the next several days. Expect the system to keep most of the heavy weather away from Chattanooga for the next 48 hours, however an encroaching cold front from the west will introduce the threat from wet weather Sunday, while a lingering boundary that has seemingly not left since March may bring a very isolated storm Saturday afternoon. All in all, by the standards of the southeast, expect fairly tranquil conditions.
Tomorrow – Very isolated storms, High 95, Low 75
Sunday – Storms becoming more scattered, High 91, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Humid High 89, Low 76
Sunday – A few thunderstorms possible High 90, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with periods of sun; a couple of afternoon showers and a thunderstorm High 94, Low 75
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, hot and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 97, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and ho High 95, Low 76
Sunday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and ho High 94, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 94, Low 74

Who needs models? Certainly not Accuweather! Let’s jack that temperature all the way up to 97! Here is the satellite, showing the most inclement weather down there along the Gulf Coast.

Jackson, Mississippi

Our theme of a Southeast week continues as we head off to the state capital of the State of Mississippi, Jackson.

At 1054AM, CT, Jackson was already reporting a temperature of 91 with clear skies. The hot, clear air was aided by the fact that the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 was hanging just off the coast, directing mostly easterly flow in central Mississippi, causing a mixing of the atmosphere rather than conflicting airmasses generated by onshore flow.
The weather of the next several days will be dictated by what the dying system in the Gulf, which isn’t expected to move much as it spins itself out. Expect the system to keep Jackson dry for the rest of today and probably into tomorrow morning. Expect a trough over the northern Plains to open the Gulf up to souterly flow again. The lingering low pressure of 5 will also be drawn north, taking with it the copious rainfall leftover from the tropical system. Expect a nice day today then very rainy weather for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Very heavy rains, with flash flooding a concern, High 94, Low 78
Saturday – Rain and thunderstorms still likely, though less rain overall, High 95, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. High 92, Low 74
Saturday – A few thunderstorms possible. High 88, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Variably cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 98, Low 78
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall High 93, Low 77
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 92, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon, High 93, Low 77
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 92, Low 77

Those temperatures are really going to depend on the rain and how good the coverage of that is. In the meantime, here is a look at the radar, showing rain trying to push deeper into Mississippi.

Watching out for Number 5

The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at the time we issued the Tallahassee forecast has since been labeled Tropical Depression 5. There isn’t much chance that it will be a hurricane at any point in it’s life cycle, and there is even a chance that the system won’t even become a Tropical Storm. It is expected to stall over the Mississippi Delta, providing more problems for an area that certainly doesn’t need any. The system also showed a more northerly track than I had indicated in my forecast on Sunday, and they saw a thunderstorm in Tallahassee yesterday.In the end, Weatherbug and The Weather Channel ended up getting the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – .38 inhes of rain, High 94, Low 78

Grade B

Summery in South Carolina

Thunderstorms are always hit or miss in the southeast. They never move in lines like they do further north, they crop up and drift. It’s really hard to say whether a certain city will see a storm beyond about two hours. Somehow, Weatherbug correctly asserted that the rain would not find it’s way into Greenville, and were the only ones to do so. The best part was that their temperature forecast was the best by a few degrees as well, so it wasn’t just luck that won the forecast. In fact, the forecast was only off by a degree total through the period.
Actuals: Sunday, High 91, Low 73
Monday, High 93, Low 73

Grade: A

Perfect weather

Well, it is for me at least. It may have been a little too hot and humid for most in Louisville for the past few days with highs in the 90s and dew points high enough for it to be muggy. I like that, I can understand if you might not. Anyways, the top forecasts, good ones at that, went to V-W and The Weather Channel
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 68
Sunday – High 93, Low 69

Grade: A