Category Archives: Forecast

Gorgeous Weekend

Given that the 4th of July was on a Sunday this year, this meant lots of people would be out and about hoping to score some nice weather with their holiday weekend. Luckily, for the people of San Jose anyways, Mother Nature pulled through. Mostly clear skies and some breezy afternoon winds pushed temperatures into the mid to upper 80’s. Whatever was perplexing VW and others about the cooler Independence Day came to fruition, as the NWS nabbed the top spot with their cooler 4th of July. Hope everybody had a safe and happy weekend!

Saturday: High 88, Low 56.
Sunday: High 85, Low 56.

Forecast grade: A

Wichita, Kansas

The winner of the 4th of July lottery is Wichita. Everyone in Wichita, stop enjoying the holiday and come read about the weather! Of course, the way thins look, you may be inside already.

At 1207PM, CT, Wichita was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 75 degrees. Most of their holiday looks to be a washout, as the remnants of Hurricane Alex are continuing to wring themselves out over the central Plains. A cold front associated with low pressure in the Canada was aiding in the continuing onslaught, but will eventually help things dry off. Presently, the last heavy round of rain was just entering Wichita, though most of the activity was training south to north, and the back side is still around Pratt, about 75 miles west. There was a wind shift between Great Bend and Russell that was probably the cold front.
Behind the elongated boundary and the remnants of Alex, an upper level trough and a surface short wave will begin to translate into Kansas. The short wave will induce some surface circulation and trigger even more wet weather Monday. The surface wave will deteriorate by the time it reaches Wichita, and the moisture will be left to wait for the strong upper trough to swing through the region and clear out the unsettled weather, and that won’t happen until late on Tuesday. It will be clearer, however, on Tuesday, so expect a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunnier, but still some stormy weather in the area, especially in the AM, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. High 77, Low 71
Tuesday – A few thunderstorms possible.High 80, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, some can be heavy late; mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 88, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow -Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 88, Low 72

The Weather Channel is going perplexingly chilly. They must be looking for a lot of rain. Speaking of a lot of rain

Fargo, North Dakota

It’s going to be stormy today in Fargo, but what will the next two days bring to North Dakota’s largest city?

At 953AM, CT, Fargo was reporting 86 degrees with mostly sunny skies. A cold front associated with low pressure in Canada was sweeping through the Dakotas and would dictate today’s weather along the Red River. The front was clearly demarcated already at this early hour, with temperatures along the Minnesota border already in the mid 80s, however to the west in Devils Lake and Bismarck, temperatures were only in the 70s with dew points that were also about 10 degrees cooler. Across the river in Moorhead, Minnesota, dew points were in the 70s.
Nothing had been triggered as yet in this juicy, dynamic atmosphere, and the visible satellite gave no hints that anything would happen in the next few hours either. The system has languished in the Pacific Northwest for days, but is now moving much more quickly, and the wet weather should be at it’s in by day break tomorrow. Another trough sweeping through Canada may bring the threat for a sprinkle late on Monday, but attempts at fireworks tomorrow night will be dry and successful.
Tomorrow – Early AM showers, otherwise cooler and pleasant. High 80, Low 64
Monday – Pleasant for most of the day, with a very light bit of drizzle, High 81, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy (early AM T-Storms). High 84. Low 67
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 84, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, less humid with clouds breaking for some sun High 84, Low 65
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (Rain thru 6am) High 81, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning High 81, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 57

A look at the visible satellite shows that not much is ready to blow up over eastern North Dakota…. yet.

Surprising chill

That’s a tough title to wrap your head around when, in fact, Jefferson City was in the mid 80s for highs for the past two days. When everyone forecasts highs a few degrees warmer, thanks to the clear skies and southerly flow, it is a little surprising that temperatures don’t get up to the neighborhood we were expecting. Victoria Weather still managed the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 64
Friday – High 86, Low 62

Grade: C

San Jose, California

Off to the West Coast and the Bay Area for today’s forecast. People don’t know it, but this is one of the three biggest cities in California.

At 853AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with a few low clouds. The marine layer was still keeping things murky on the northern and central areas of the Bay, but the southern Bay was already clearing out and will warm up nicely this afternoon.
A trough over the northern Rockies continues to move extremely slowly, and a boundary has moved incrementally over the past several days. It has only been problematic in Montana, where the system is centered, but the flow associated with the low has meant a northwesterly flow off the Pacific. The ridge in the east is rather enormous, and it is not expected to allow the western trough to advance rapidly, and the northerly flow will continue. Expect foggy, cloudy mornings and a sunnier, warmer afternoon.
Tomorrow – Dreary in the morning, then sunny, High 83, Low 56
Sunday – A carbon copy of Saturday, with morning haze and sunny skies later, 87, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – High Mainly sunny. High 84, Low 57
Sunday – Sunshine High 88, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – A full day of sunshine High 83, Low 56
Sunday – Bright and sunny High 88, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 86, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 84, Low 59

I’m confused as to why the NWS and Weatherbug are going cooler on Sunday. That doesn’t seem right. And of course, Sunday is Independence Day, so it looks like it will be good in San Jose!

A breath of fresh air

Sioux City successfully made it through the end of June without any more problems, seeing temperatures in the lower 80s with not a drop of rain to be had. Not a bad way to close out the month, especially the way it had been going. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 82, Low 53
Wednesday – High 84, Low 56

Grade: A

Jefferson City, Missouri

And we’re off to central Missouri for the forecast on this beautiful Wednesday.

At 1053AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Hurricane Alex and a cold front were interacting to keep showers and thunderstorms south of at least Memphis. High pressure over the northern US was able to build south into the area.
That high pressure will dominate for the next two days. The city will be at the back edge of the ridge, which will mean a southerly flow and warming temperatures through the end of the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
Friday – Sunny skies continue, High 86, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 60
Friday – Abundant sunshine. High 88, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine and nice High 86, Low 58
Friday – Pleasant with brilliant sunshine High 87, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 58
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 83, Low 58
Sunny – Sunny. High 85, Low 59

Beautiful weather for the capitol city to end the week and to kick off the holiday weekend.

Too many storms

I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over the forecast period, avoiding any real severe weather due to the timing of the thunderstorms. Well, instead the storms came through in the middle of the day on Sunday and left a swath of damage in the Cleveland metro. There was a small tornado up in Ashtabula, but most of the damage was the result of straight line winds. The airport in Cleveland reported winds of over 40mph in the early evening. The Weather Channel, as seems to be usual lately, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Monday – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade: B

Sioux City, Iowa

Sioux City has been getting raked over the coals the past few days, but finally it appears they are clearing out, ready to enjoy some much better weather.

At 152PM, CT, Sioux City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. A long, low amplitude ridge was shifting into the center of the country. It wasn’t inhibiting much because of it’s strength, but there was little at the surface to kick up showers or storms.
The presence of Tropical Storm Alex in the Bay of Campeche will also aid in capping any thunderstorm development for the next several days by redirecting Gulf moisture away from the typical corridor up the Mississippi. A weak trough will begin to move in late on Wednesday, however it will only serve to knock down temperatures by a couple degrees and kick up some winds as there will be no moisture to work with.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny with increasing winds High 87, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunshine. High 87, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Sunshine High 85, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny. High 84, Low 58

It’s certainly going to be a relief for residents of Siouxland not to have to deal with another torrential downpour tonight. A look at the satellite tells that, in fact, it is quiet in Sioux City.

I never did care for New Mexico

Some of the worst forecasts I have ever seen came from New Mexico. Many moons ago, there was a forecast out for Albuquerque where the best one was a mere 44 degrees in error off from the proper forecast. Perhaps we should count ourselves lucky that this forecast in Las Cruces was only off by 20 or so degrees. Despite calm winds and clear skies, the temperature failed to get above 90 on Saturday, while clear skies allowed temperatures to drop to 60 degrees on Sunday morning. Those two factors led to some very sad forecasters. Sidebar: I can’t figure out why Las Cruces reported an observation every 20 minutes. Everyone I know, unless there is ongoing weather, reports on the hour. Quite peculiar, New Mexico. Despite my complaints, Victoria-Weather had the top ‘cast for Las Cruces.
Actuals: Saturday, High 89, Low 71
Sunday, High 96, Low 60

Grade: D