Category Archives: Forecast

Alexandria, Louisiana

At 1053CDT, Alexandria was at 77 degrees under fair skies. Most of the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity was focused along the TX coastline and places further inland, while only a smattering of isolated showers/storms found their way towards the LA coastline and inland. Broad high pressure over the Southeast US is keeping the easterly steering flow aiming primarily at the TX coastline and will for the next couple of days. Further west, a broad swath of moisture leftover from Tropical Storm Karl will stream up into the Central US, but will mostly bypass the Alexandria area. Outside of a few scattered hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms, it should be a warm and sunny next couple of days.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 71.
Wednesday: Few more clouds, some isolated shower activity. High 91, Low 69.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 70.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, a few scattered showers. High 92, Low 71.

AW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 70.
Wednesday: 20% chance of a scattered shower. High 92, Low 70.

NWS: Tuesday: Slight chance of a shower. High 93, Low 71.
Wednesday: Another chance of scattered showers. High 92, Low 71.

WB: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 71.
Wednesday. A few scattered thundershowers. High 92, Low 71.

Here we see most of the activity remaining over Mexico before shifting into the US over the next 24-36 hours, and some stronger storms over the Mid-MS Valley.

Killed in Billings

A developing front over Billings ended up developing a little bit stronger and later than anticipated in Billings. I knew we were in trouble when we got to the road trip on Thursday when the models were putting down more than a light sprinkle like it looked like it would be on Wednesday when we forecast. Friday was particularly dreary, with almost a tenth of an inch of rain and rain that refused to climb out of the mid-50s. The Weather Service had the least bad forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 78, Low 48
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 56, Low 37

Grade: D

It’s in the 90s somewhere

That somewhere is certainly Lawton, Oklahoma, where temperatures reached that lofty level each of the past two days. On Tuesday, there was a brief little thunderstorm that moved through in the afternoon, but the airport in town only reported a hundredth of rain. Accuweather had the best forecast, but everyone was in the same neighborhood, and there wasn’t much separating the top from the bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 94, Low 69
Wednesday – High 93, Low 71

Grade: B

Billings, Montana

Off once again to Montana, the place where good forecasts go to die.

At 953PM, MT, Billings was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The area was in a relatively dead zone in terms of pressure gradient, though there is an area of low pressure over western Canada that is helping to direct flow from the southeast.
A trough associated with the low over Canada will strengthen and dig south into Montana through the next 24 hours or so. It will be chased out quickly by a sharp ridge, after a brief shot at some light showers tomorrow afternoon. Friday will be dry with clear skies dominating the region.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a slight chance of late rain. High 74, Low 49
Friday – Early AM rain, then clearing, High 62, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy (late PM Rain). High 76, Low 54
Friday – Chance of showers. – High 59, low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine High 74, Low 49
Friday – Partial sunshine with a shower; cooler High 53, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 50
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 50
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain, High 58, Low 48

I can’t tell if it’s going to be standard or non standard on Friday, but most seem to think it will be cloudy despite the high moving in. I expect some busted forecasts one way or another. Clear right now, though.

Correct on the clouds

Most forecasters for Longview tried to claim that the city would be pleasant and clear through the forecast period. One forecaster, we at Victoria-Weather, forecast the cloudy days correctly and our cooler temperature forecasts benefit. The Weather Service was cool as well, however, despite their partly sunny sky forecasts, and narrowly edged u out.
Actuals: Monday – High 73, Low 56
Tuesday – High 73, Low 53

Grade: A

Lawton, Oklahoma

From southwestern Washington, we head to southwestern Oklahoma today.

At 453PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with clear skies, though there were isolated strong thunderstorms developing across western Oklahoma and northern Texas, with the largest storms east north of Ardmore and to the north near El Reno and Yukon, with a cluster of storms near Wichita Falls, Texas. Oklahoma found itself between a set triggers, a stationary front to the north and a lee trough to the west.
Over the next several days, the flow aloft will be weak and westerly. There won’t be much in terms of full layered systems, but with the westerly flow, expected a stationary, broad surface lee trough to develop over the high plains. The rotation around the low will mean some dry air sucked southeastward, and it’s intersection with the warmer, more humid air of the Gulf will be across southwestern Oklahoma, which means there will be a chance for isolated thunderstorms in Lawton eacho f the next two days.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 90, Low 70
Wednesday – Thunderstorms possible late. Hot, High 92, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm. high 92, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Slight chance of a thunderstorm. High 92, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm; a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy (Late precip) High 92, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71

It’s still summer in Oklahoma, that’s for sure.

So much for that front

Montgomery was awaiting the arrival of a weak late season front that all forecasters expected, at the very least, to knock temperatures down a few degrees. So much for that. Instead, the boundary came through and introduced clear skies and slightly drier weather that allowed temperatures to keep climbing all the way up to 99 degrees yesterday. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the city, though they were too chilly (if you can call 93 chilly) as well.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of precip, High 96, Low 74
Sunday – High 99, Low 72

Grade: C

Longview, Washington

This is definitely a rare occasion. A city we are forecasting for that I had literally never heard of before the forecast. It’s across the river from Portland, and closer to the Pacific, if you forget Friday’s map.

At 1155AM, PT, Longview was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. There was little in the way of synoptic systems, though the marine layer was still reluctant to move out of the area, with low clouds being seen across the Pacific Coast. Longview’s position inland prevented them from being mired in low conditions still at this late hour.
A weak upper level trough will push quickly through the Pacific Northwest, mostly failoing to generate precipitation for the region, but successfully bringing cloudy skies, even east of the Cascades which usually avoids such conditions. Precipitation will stay confined to a strong low off the coast, and places like Longview will be cloudy the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy to overcast, High 74, Low 55
Tuesday – Increasing clouds , High 76, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 76, Low 55
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 78, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 77, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 79, Low 53

NWS: Mostly sunny High 72, Low 54
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy, High 71, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly Sunny, High 72, Low 51

A look at the satellite shows the generally clear conditions, but the low clouds are mostly just not showing up on satellite.

Montgomery, Alabama

We’re headed down south, where fall and winter are on their way into town, which makes forecasts a little bit more diverse than “hot, with thunderstorms possible”.

At 1053AM, CT, Montgemery was already reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with sunny skies. Cold high pressure was driving into the eastern part of the country, while a staunch southerly flow continued to ripple north from the Gulf of Mexico, aided in no small part by the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine, which is presently centered over western Kentucky.
A strong low and it’s associated deep digging trough in the center of the country will latch on to those remnants over the next 24 hours, and a weak surface boundary will push in the southeast, generating widespread thunderstorms tomorrow, but causing some clearing over the northern half of the state by Sunday. That said, expect some isolated storms over the far southern part of the state to filter into Montgomery even on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny, thunderstorms south of town. High 93, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Hot and humid. High 96, Low 73
Sunday – Isolated thunderstorms High 92, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 72
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 73
Sunday – A chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 90, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms, High 95, Low 72
Sunday – Partly cloudy, a 30% chance of showers in the morning, High 92, Low 73

Looks like whatever moves through won’t be all that strong. A look at the satellite shows some bright tops north of Alabama.

Bipolar temperatures

When things are dry, as they were in Provo the past couple of days, temperatures can fluctuate wildly through a day. On Tuesday, Provo saw temperatures bottom out at 41, then climb during the day to 86, a 45 degree spread. Egads. Things were a little bit more stable on Wednesday, when there was some moisture and even a thunderstorm in the area, and the high was only 24 degrees warmer than the low. The Weather Service and Victoria-Weather topped ’em all with the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 41
Wednesday – Thunderstorm reported, precipitation not measured, High 84, Low 60

Grade: C