Category Archives: Forecast

Naples, Florida

At 12:53pm EDT, the temperature in Naples, Florida was 75 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A lingering cold/stationary front that’s been found over the Florida Peninsula and along the Gulf Coast has slowly been weakening the last couple of days, but there will still be a decent amount of instability over the region. An ill-defined disturbance over the Lower MS Valley will slowly trek eastward through the Deep South over the next couple of days, enhancing some of the thunderstorm activity farther north over Florida. Tuesday should see a fair amount of activity over the northern 2/3rds of the state especially when the sea breezes converge over the interior part of the state, but Naples could see a few scattered showers still make it down their way. Wednesday sees that aforementioned area of low pressure become a bit better defined towards the Carolinas, giving them a good chance of some stronger thunderstorms during the day. A weak area of high pressure looks to build back over Florida and into the Central Gulf behind this system and keep southern Florida mostly on the dry side, but there will still be a few scattered showers popping up during the afternoon. Overall it should be a good couple of days for beach goers, but Tuesday will definitely be the day to keep an eye on the sky for more scattered activity.

Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorm. High 80, Low 62.
Wednesday. 20% chance of a scattered shower, maybe an isolated thunderstorm. High 79, Low 65.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 77, Low 66.

AW: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 61.
Wednesday: Isolated shower/thundershower possible. High 78, Low 65.

NWS: Tuesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 65.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 66.

Some moderate showers are found well off to the north of Naples and off over the Gulf. Some more of these might draw closer tomorrow.

Like day and night

The temperature in Jefferson City fell off a little bit form Wednesday to Thursday. After a balmy 84 degree day on Wednesday, a cold front and it’s associated clouds arrived on Thursday, preventing temperatures from even reaching 70. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug most accurately foresaw this dramatic turn for the worst (if you like hot weather), and ended up with the top forecasts.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 54
Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 53

Grade: B

Deja Vu

For the second time this week, we’re going to be verifying a forecast in Bridgeport. Popular place for us this week. I’m just happy we could oblige with a forecast that busted, due to somewhat nicer weather. Clouds were present overnight in Bridgeport which kept lows warmer than expected. On top of that, the showers some called for on Tuesday stayed south of the city. The Weather Channel tied Accuweather atop the leaderboard in this typically Springtime forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 58, Low 46
Wednesday – High 63, Low 41

Grade: B

Jefferson City, Missouri

Our forecast takes us to the capital of Missouri, and a city enjoying some 80 degree weather right now.

At 1153AM, Jefferson City was reporting sunny skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. Positioned squarely in the warm sector of a system moving into the Northern Plains, the area is seeing increased humidity and gusty southerly winds. The Gulf of Mexico is cool so far this Spring, so even though humidity is increased, it isn’t yet oppressive.
The cold front associated with the the area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is well defined, running from western Minnesota to western Kansas, though it isn’t particularly active, with only light showers being seen thus far. The system is rapidly occluding, and an area of high pressure is building over the southeast, cutting off most of the energy in Jefferson City before it can really arrive. As the pattern progresses east, the Gulf will reopen Friday evening with the high pressure shifting out to sea. The boundary will finally sag into Missouri and interact with the new found moisture, with showers and thunderstorms expected Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm, High 78, Low 58
Friday – Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, High 70, Low 55 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds (PM TStorms). Very warm. High 85, Low 55
Friday – Thundershowers. High 71, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 79, Low 56
Friday – Mainly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (PM rain) High 82, Low 56
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (PM Rain) High 82, Low 56
Friday – Cooler. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 69, Low 56

Here is a look at the satellite, showing that cold front very well over the Northern Plains.

Protected by mountains

Anchorage looked to be in line for a rather nasty couple of days, however the elevation around the Cook Inlet kept all that nasty weather out of the city. In the end, they ended up with only a bit of rain overnight from Monday to Tuesday, and cloudy skies all around. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast, and I couldn’t be prouder.
Actuals: Monday – Rain observed, but not measured, High 45, low 39
Tuesday – Rain observed but not measured, High 44, Low 36

Grade: C

Bridgeport, Connecticut

Back to Bridgeport on this fine Monday evening. Let’s rock and roll!

At 1152PM, ET, Bridgeport was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. A long boundary ranged from the central Rockies and tailed off as it swept into the Mid Atlantic. Later tonight, showers should develop along this boundary as an area of low pressure over the Rockies shifts into the high plains.
Models have been universally poor for the past week or so, however the basics are still valid. The extended stationary front south of the area will dissipate over the coming days, with a Canadian ridge shifting into New England. Some showers are a remote possibility Tuesday morning, though clearing is expected to move in by midweek.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers in the morning, then clearing. High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 58, Low 40
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 62, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 56, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of sprinkles after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Sunny, High 65, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sprinkles High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Sunny. High 65, Low 39

A look at the satellite shows that long stream of clouds headed towards Bridgeport. Good times to be had by all.

Way too dry

I had mentioned that Youngstown was going to see an area of high pressure stanch the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico north to their neck of the woods. As it so happens, this had a greater influence on the forecast than I had originally prognosticated. The low temperatures, unchecked by moisture on Saturday, plummeted to the upper 20s, and the cold front passed through yesterday completely dry. In the end, there was a three way tie at the top, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Bug.
Actuals: Saturday – High 63, Low 28
Sunday – High 66, Low 42

Grade B

Anchorage, Alaska

Anchorage, historically, has proven to be a nightmare to forecast for. I don’t think that will change.

At 853AM, Alaska time, Anchorage was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with cloudy skies. A broad area of low pressure crashing into western Alaska was sending an occluded front south through the Anchorage area, and substantial snows were being seen all around the Cook Inlet, however none of it had reached Anchorage by 9AM. With temperatures continuing to rise during the day, expect most activity in southern Alaska to be rain, though some snow my still mix in.
The system is winding itself up over the center of Alaska, and will continue to infuse moisture into Anchorage. Expect a snowy, rainy couple of days in Anchorage, with wind on the increase, though most of the moisture will be stunted by the high elevation of the Kenai Peninsula.
Tomorrow – Snow and rain, High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow and rain continue, High 45, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain and snow in the morning will become intermittent in the afternoon. High 40, Low 34
Tuesday – Mix of rain and snow showers. High 40, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a bit of rain, mixed with snow early with little or no additional accumulation High 44, Low 33
Tuesday – A bit of morning snow; otherwise, remaining cloudy High 46, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – .Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 42, low 32
Tuesday – Snow likely, High 37, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 38, Low 28
Tuesday –
Snow likely. High 38, Low 28

I estimated the NWS forecast, because they didn’t put any actual values. Who knows with Anchorage. They could be totally accurate. Here is the Alaskan radar.

Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works!

Accuweather has… not been good for the past year and a half. Their two day forecasts are often divergent from the consensus, and they pay for it. Perhaps they are too busy drawing up hurricane forecasts for 2018. Today, however, their divergent forecast wasn’t so divergent, and verified as the best in Bridgeport! They correctly foresaw the cool Friday and slightly warmer Saturday, but most importantly, they tied with us for the top. Congratulations, Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – .23 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A

Youngstown, Ohio

After all that Anthony time, I am officially back in the saddle for about 10 straight days. I’m going to get started today with Youngstown.

At 1233PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with light snow. A weak lake effect front had swept into the area in the last half hour, bringing the light snow from Cleveland southeast to Youngstown and dropping the temperature by about 5 degrees. An area of low pressure over Eastern Canada was introducing northerly flow, and the thaw of the Lake Erie ice has introduced the necessary moisture.
Fortunately, the pattern is more progressive than it has been over the winter, and a jet will establish itself over the Great Lakes, allowing high pressure to develop over the southeast, cutting off any additional moisture. Still, an area of low pressure over Canada will push a cold front through eastern Ohio Sunday evening, however with moisture stymied, expect only light showers to pass through on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 35
Sunday – Late afternoon showers, High 63, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 65, Low 34
Sunday – Few showers. High 64, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer High 62, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 65, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers High 65, Low 40

A look at the radar shows the light flurries in the area.