Category Archives: Forecast

Denver, Colorado

Denver is one of the more difficult major metropolitan areas to forecast for, what with their widely variable temperatures and the potential for a half a foot of snow in late March. We’ll see how it goes this time.

At 953AM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a degree of lee side troughing, however the real story was a broad, strong upper level trough digging into the west that would create it’s own weather news for the next couple of days.
A stout ridge in the east will prevent the system from shifting east, though with the low pressure aided by the Rockies in the lee side of the Rockies, a more effective southerly flow will develop over the coming days in eastern Colorado. Expect a continued warm up for Denver and an increase in the clouds tomorrow, with snow lurking in the mountains west of town by Thursday, with the clouds stamping out any warm weather in Denver.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and windy, High 73, Low 44
Thursday – Overcast and cooler, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. High 55, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a warm breeze High 70, Low 43
Thursday – Breezy and cooler with times of sun and clouds (PM Rain) High 54, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 46
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers after noon, chance of snow before midnight. Partly cloudy High 60, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 70, Low 46
Thursday –
Partly sunny. A 10 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 60, Low 40

I am completely dumbfounded by the Weather Channel. I triple checked to make sure that was actually their forecast, notably the low temperatures. Anyways, here is a look at the western US from space. Pretty good system over the northwest, and it doesn’t want to move!

Elizabethtown, Kentucky

Sorry, there will be no in-depth analysis featuring Orlando Bloom and Kirsten Dunst here. However, the weather for the next couple of days will be just as beautiful as fans of those stars think they are!

At 12:56pm EDT, the temperature at Elizabethtown, KY was 45 degrees under overcast skies. A large storm system is pummeling the East Coast from NC northward through New England, dropping copious amounts of rain. The main low is found just offshore of the Carolinas, with a bit of a low pressure trough extending northwestward into the Southern Appalachians. This is keeping some cloudy skies over the eastern half of Kentucky, but will burn off during the afternoon as the main cloud deck also pulls off towards the east. As the low shifts up the East Coast, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Ohio Valley, clearing out the skies and bringing warm weather surging back into the region on Wednesday, with winds a bit higher as well in the afternoon. This ridge will expand over the Eastern U.S., keeping Elizabethtown dry not only over the next couple days, but through much of the rest of the week as well.

VW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38.
Wednesday: Clear and warmer. High 75, Low 45.

TWC: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 74, Low 42.

AW: Tuesday: Partly cloudy, becoming sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 78, Low 44.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Continued sunny. High 77, Low 44.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 37.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 47.

While it’s overcast now, it should become sunny later today, which will stick around for the next few days. Except, of course, at night. Otherwise that’d just be weird.

A 23-hour day?

Our competition all had a chance of showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night for Naples, we figured that they would hold off to the east. If our days lasted 23 hours, we would have stormed (no pun intended) to victory! Sadly, a rogue thunderstorm decided to move into the area after 11pm on Sunday, dropping a quick 4/10ths of an inch before midnight. Curses! AW wound up taking the top spot, with no added embellishment from Joe Bastardi.

Saturday: High 81, Low 55
Sunday: 0.42″ of rain in a thunderstorm. High 81, Low 66

Forecast grade: B

I definitely screwed something up

First, in the process of creating the forecast for Milwaukee, I transcribed the forecast from Weatherbug incorrectly. It was about 15 degrees off on the Friday high for everyone else. Of course, the forecast was flat out wrong for everyone else anyways. Clouds and some pretty substantial cold advection knocked temperatures down to the low 30s for a high Friday and in the 40s on Saturday. Of the forecasters that ended up getting their appropriate forecasts in, the best was Victoria-Weather and the Weather Channel. But it was nothing to be proud of.
Actuals: Friday, High 33, Low 27
Saturday – High 42, Low 29

Grade: D

Monterey Bay Victory

Anthony came back from vacation and immediately forecast for Santa Cruz, right in the state he had recently departed from. He certainly knew what he was doing, as he ended up with the top forecast for the city. There was a small dose of light rain showers on Thursday, but Santa Cruz ended up with a pleasant couple of days in the weather department. (Accuweather tied for the top spot, BTW)
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of rain, High 60, Low 44
Friday -High 63, Low 40

Grade: A

Naples, Florida

My parents are in south Florida this week, not too far from Naples. Hopefully things are going well for them down there.

At 1253PM, ET, Naples was not reporting a temperature, but was reporting mostly cloudy skies behind a band of showers and thunderstorms that spanned from near West Palm Beach to just south of Naples. Up the coast in the Fort Myers area, low clouds and fog was being reported with temperature in the low to mid 70s.
Fortunately, a nice Spring ridge is setting up behind the system producing the boundary in south Florida right now. Expect the ridge to become well established in the Peninsula, forcing out any lingering clouds or rain, bringing about sunny skies and typically pleasant Floridian weather. A system in the center of the country will drop a cold front through the Gulf that will approach the the Gulf coast of Florida late on Sunday, but thunderstorms won’t be a likely until Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 58
Sunday – Sunny, High 83, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 80, Low 52
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms. High 81, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 81, Low 56
Sunday – Breezy with a blend of sunshine and clouds; a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 83, Low 57
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy High 83, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 78, Low 56
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. High 82, Low 62

Very interesting. The NAM, my model of choice today, really downplayed the thunderstorm threat in Florida, and frankly, if any are generated, I expect them due to inflow into the low, which would put storms over central and eastern Florida, leaving Naples dry on Sunday. We’ll see who is right. A look at the radar shows those showers south of Naples.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

We’re forecasting today in Wisconsin’s largest city. But can anyone find a beer?

At 1252PM, ET, Milwaukee was reporting cloudy skies and gusty winds to about 35mph. A strong area of low pressure has developed rather rapidly over the center of the country, and wrap around moisture had found its way as far north as the south side of Chicago, with the mid and high clouds extending into southeastern Wisconsin. The pressure with this low was such that strong winds were being seen all around the low pressure center.
If there is any good news, it is that the rain should stay south of Chicago as the system continues to wind to the east, bound by a polar front to the north that has brought about the chilly air in Milwaukee and will prevent the low from moving to the north. The upper level pattern is very shortwaved, which indicates rapid eastward propagation. Expect a quick warm up for Saturday, followed by some late showers Saturday night, though they will not be heavy as the next system sets up a warm front across central Wisconsin.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 22
Saturday – Increasing clouds with an isolated late night shower, High 50, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.High 41, Low 23
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy. High 53, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 42, Low 21
Saturday – Increasing cloudiness (late rain) High 49, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 43,L ow 23
Saturday – Mostly sunny (rain after 8pm), High 54, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 59, Low 28
Saturday – Partly sunny. High 51, Low 32

A look at the satellite shows an impressive looking system over the center of the country. That is a Spring system if ever there was one.

This sounds great

Right now in Minneapolis, its cold enough that I can see my breath. The past two days in Gainesville, they saw mostly sunny skies and temperatures that climbed into the low 70s. That sounds like a little slice of heaven. Not distracted by the amazing weather, Accuweather had the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 70, Low 42
Wednesday, High 76, Low 42

Grade A

Santa Cruz, California

As Ryan mentioned earlier, i’m covering the forecast and road trip updates today. They’re getting up a little late tonight however, as I encountered something even more difficult to predict on my way back from my CA vacation… airplane delays! Nothing like a 4 hour delay to brighten your day. However, off we go to Santa Cruz. Interesting how my vacation was bookended with forecasts for CA cities.

At 933pm PDT, the temperature was 54degrees with cloudy skies. A cold front is starting to push its’ way through Northern California, with the main low remaining off the coastline of the Pacific Northwest. Some showers are swinging through the San Francisco area ahead of the front, with a few lighter ones lingering behind. Once this band pushes through, conditions should be fairly dry for the remainder of the day, however some clouds should continue to linger through mid-morning. Some sun should break though for the afternoon and evening hours, making for a relatively decent day, albeit a bit on the breezy side. A second disturbance is looking to rotate it’s way through northern CA as well late Thursday into early Friday. Clouds are expected as it moves through, but light shower activity should remain off to the north. When Friday morning comes around, most of the low pressure trough should be building towards the Four Corners region with high pressure reasserting itself along the CA coastline. This means mostly sunny skies to kick off the weekend, with less wind than Thursday.

Thursday: A few early AM showers, then mostly cloudy. High 60, Low 46.
Friday: Clouds decreasing through day, mostly sunny by afternoon. High 65, Low 41.

TWC: Thursday: Slight chance of morning shower. High 61, Low 46.
Friday: Sunny. High 64, Low 42.

AW: Thursday: Possible AM shower, then breezy. High 60, Low 47.
Friday: Partly sunny. High 62, Low 41.

NWS: Thursday: Early AM shower. High 62, Low 44.
Friday: Sunny. High 65, Low 42.

WB: Thursday: Chance of light rain. High 59, Low 42.
Friday: Another chance of light morning rain, then clearing. High 60, Low 40.

Here we see the rain showers moving through the Bay Area. How long will they stick around this morning?

A different Columbus

Hey, this is going to be a weird day. I’ll start with this Columbus verification, but Anthony, who has been on vacation, will be back this evening to take care of the forecast and road trip for the day.
Back when the site first started, we always seemed to have forecasts for Columbus, Ohio. Now, we keep featuring Columbuses, but have moved further south. Does this mean we are doing well in Columbus? Eh, not really. The Weather Channel is though. They went away from covering health care reform and actually set about creating an excellent forecast. They navigated a pretty sizable temperature swing from Monday to Tuesday and blew everyone out of the water. From here on out, I’m covering politics and forecasting as an afterthought. How about that Bull Moose party?
Actuals: Monday – No precip, High 50, Low 40
Tuesday – High 68, Low 44

Grade: B