Category Archives: Forecast

Montgomery, Alabama

We’re headed down south, where fall and winter are on their way into town, which makes forecasts a little bit more diverse than “hot, with thunderstorms possible”.

At 1053AM, CT, Montgemery was already reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with sunny skies. Cold high pressure was driving into the eastern part of the country, while a staunch southerly flow continued to ripple north from the Gulf of Mexico, aided in no small part by the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine, which is presently centered over western Kentucky.
A strong low and it’s associated deep digging trough in the center of the country will latch on to those remnants over the next 24 hours, and a weak surface boundary will push in the southeast, generating widespread thunderstorms tomorrow, but causing some clearing over the northern half of the state by Sunday. That said, expect some isolated storms over the far southern part of the state to filter into Montgomery even on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly sunny, thunderstorms south of town. High 93, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Hot and humid. High 96, Low 73
Sunday – Isolated thunderstorms High 92, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 72
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 73
Sunday – A chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 90, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms, High 95, Low 72
Sunday – Partly cloudy, a 30% chance of showers in the morning, High 92, Low 73

Looks like whatever moves through won’t be all that strong. A look at the satellite shows some bright tops north of Alabama.

Bipolar temperatures

When things are dry, as they were in Provo the past couple of days, temperatures can fluctuate wildly through a day. On Tuesday, Provo saw temperatures bottom out at 41, then climb during the day to 86, a 45 degree spread. Egads. Things were a little bit more stable on Wednesday, when there was some moisture and even a thunderstorm in the area, and the high was only 24 degrees warmer than the low. The Weather Service and Victoria-Weather topped ’em all with the best forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 41
Wednesday – Thunderstorm reported, precipitation not measured, High 84, Low 60

Grade: C

Sweltering Summer Finish

Labor Day unofficially marks the end of summer, with kids going back to school, trees begin the fall change up north, and wearing white becomes a fashion faux pas. Down in Midland, however, clear skies gave way to temps in the mid to upper 90’s each day as subsidence outside of Tropical Store Hermine kept things quiet. The Weather Channel continued their winning ways on the strength of a warm Sunday forecast.

Sunday: High 97, Low 65.
Monday: High 95, Low 70.
Forecast Grade: B

Provo, Utah

There isn’t much to Utah when you get away from I-15. Um. Provo is along I-15.

At 354PM, MT, Provo was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies and very dry air. A dominant area of high pressure had moved into the area, forcing all the moisture south and east into Colorado and eventually on to the High Plains.
Monsoonal flow is expected to return Wednesday, particularly southeast of Provo, but moisture may be robbed by Tropical Storm Hermine which is going to move into Texas. Tomorrow will still be dry, thanks to the high pressure moving into the area, with cool overnight los and warm afternoon highs.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 40
Wednesday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 81, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 83, Low 45
Wednesday – Windy with times of sun and clouds. High 81, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 80, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly sunny and breezy High 83, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 82, Low 45
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 85, low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 79, Low 45
Wednesday – A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, High 82, Low 53

A look at the satellite shows the quiet skies over Utah.

Fall arrives quickly

Altoona was a few degrees warmer than anyone expected. Nevertheless, when a cold front passed through town on Friday, temperatures did drop by 20 degrees or so. Behind the front, gusty winds on the order f almost 30mph were the story. Victoria-Weather, on the strength of our low temperature forecasting had the top results in Altoona, but the real winners were residents, as high temperatures never dropped below 70.
Actuals: Friday – Rain detected, not measured, High 90, Low 61
Saturday – High 70, Low 54

Grade: B

Midland, Texas

It’s a very Texas day here, and tomorrow will be no different as we road trip to Killeen. Hopefully this forecast goes better than our jaunt to Laredo.

At 1153AM, CT, Midland was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. An area of high pressure over the center of the country had worked it’s way south into West Texas.
A weak spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the southern Gulf of Mexico will organize itself into a very rainy system south of the Mexican border. This developing system will organize flow so as to rob moisture of a trough in the northern Rockies that would otherwise be the perfect type of system to inject some stormy weather for the area. Instead, expect sunny, dry weather for Midland for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 62
Monday – Sun continues High 95, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Hot. High 96, Low 64
Monday – Sunshine High 97, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Bright and sunny High 93, Low 64
Monday – Bright and sunny High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 57
Monday – Sunny, High 94, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Hgh 93, Low 60
Monday – Sunny, High 94, Low 66

I think those low temperatures are probably going to be the deciding factor in this one. I’m really surprised at the disparity. The satellite shows some dominant high pressure for the center of the country. Beautiful, but a little chilly.


I had mentioned the pressing area of cool high pressure and the threat for increasing clouds in Laredo, but I discounted the threat for rain. I was a fool! The rain did come, much to the chagrin of ourselves and Accuweather, but even more surprisingly, temperatures about 12 degrees cooler than expected came into town, thanks to those clouds on Friday. The Weather Service was the closest, though not great on this one.

Altoona, Pennsylvania

I feel like whenever I come to forecast for Altoona, I’m running way behind schedule (2AM is certainly behind). Today’ it’s a product of my schedule, and not laze like it usually is.

At 253AM, ET, Altoona was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Ahead of a front moving into the Mid-Atlantic, western Pennsylvania was unusually clear of fog. Altoona finds itself in a precarious position early this Friday morning, as Hurricane Earl sits off the Outer Banks of North Carolina and a low over the Great Lakes is introducing a fall-like cold front into the region.
The front will steadily march eastward towards Altoona through the day today, arriving in the late afternoon or early evening. After that, the rainy conditions will continue for much of the overnight into Saturday. Earl will merge with this low and surface pressure will drop, increasing a northwesterly wind for Altoona, serving to help temperatures drop precipitously to begin the weekend.
Today – Rain in the afternoon and evening, High 87, Low 61
Tomorrow – Morning rain and much cooler temperatures High 66, Low 54

TWC: Today – A few isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. High 84, Low 63
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds High 61, Low 51

AW: Today – Partly sunny and very warm High 88, Low 60
Tomorrow -Windy and cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 66, Low 51

NWS: Today – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy High 89, Low 64
Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 67, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers in the afternoons, High 82, Low 63
Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 64, Low 53

Accuweather, keeping Altoona dry. I will say… huh. Satellite shows that Accuweather might be mistaken.

Good for you, Optimists

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn’t turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 50
Wednesday – High 76, Low 59

Grade: C

Laredo, Texas

Way down in southern Texas, right on the Rio Grande for today’s forecast. Did you know that Laredo is the largest city in America without a bookstore? Something to be proud of.

At 356PM, CT, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 102 with partly cloudy skies. Laredo was still in the summer time pattern, mostly avoiding any wet weather thanks to their inland nature and their southern position away from any advancing systems in the Plains. Generally speaking, Laredo only has to worry about tropical systems in he late summer, and whether or not they can push inland. Seeing as Earl, Fiona and Gaston are all presently taking a an East Coast track, Laredo appears to be safe from rain for the next couple of days.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast, from Brownsville to Beaumont, however the only impact on Laredo will likely be a brief respite in the searing heat should some high clouds blow west into the Rio Grande Valley, though that appears unlikely. A deep high pressure will push into the southern Plains and the southern edge will provide a trigger point through Texas that may actually bring some increased clouds to Laredo on Friday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 103, Low 79
Friday – Increased clouds, still warm, High 100, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered clouds with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm developing during the afternoon. Hot High 101, Low 78
Friday – Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon High 99, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 102, Low 79
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 100, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot High 102, Low 80
Friday – 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 102, Low 80
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 101, Low 79

A look at the satellite shows Earl really well, as well as those storms along the Texas coast.