Category Archives: Forecast

Muncie, Indiana

I used to live in Indiana, back when I was in school. I can honestly say that I never went to Muncie.

At 253PM, ET, Muncie was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with cloudy skies. A stiff westerly breeze is being seen behind a warm front that has swung through the area overnight. The system is rapidly occluding as it passes through the Midwest, and the associated cold front isn’t far behind. The clouds and previously seen showers will effectively stamp out the threat for thunderstorms in the area tonight, with the strongest storms likely south and west of Muncie.
A deep trough with weak bounding flow is swinging into the southern Plains through the next 12 hours, likely to develop the next system. The cold front associated with the low bringing rain to their east right now will connect with the developing system. The boundary will become mostly stationary from New Jersey to Nebraska, generally triggering showers and storms for the region along that boundary, including Muncie. As the system develops, the boundary over Indiana will lift north as a warm front, creating a brief warm up before showers and thunderstorms arrive in town again Thursday afternoon, with severe thunderstorms a distinct possible.
Tomorrow – Rain and isolated thunderstorms likely. High 70, Low 52
Thursday – Warm, with strong thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 69, Low 50
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 82, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 68, Low 49
Thursday – Breezy and warmer with rain and a thunderstorm High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow- A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Breezy…warmer. Thunderstorms likely High 78, Low 58

Looks pretty sloppy for Muncie coming up, that’s for sure. Here is the well wrapped system over the Great Lakes.

Severe system spares Nebraska

Yesterday, a dynamic system moving into the Southern Plains organized and triggered a tornado outbreak over Oklahoma, the center of the tornado universe. In fact, the scientists at the National Weather Center, home to a combination of the Storm Prediction Center, NWS-Oklahoma City office, and a meteorological research campus of the University of Oklahoma saw a tornado out their window. They self reported! Unfortunately, this marks the second deadly outbreak of the year after last month’s twister that cut across Mississippi. 5 are dead and many more are injured in Oklahoma, most in Norman, just south of Oklahoma City where the NWC is located.
The images from this storm are incredible. We will look at some radar stills next week, when we don’t have forecasts scheduled every day. Speaking of forecasts, this is technically a verification post, which is why Nebraska was mentioned. Omaha was on the northern end of the system, and they mercifully only saw rain out of it. Temperatures were kept cool by persistent wind, and clouds. The rain didn’t start until Monday, which didn’t give Victoria-Weather the victory, it merely increased the margin of victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 62, Low 38
Monday – .59 inches of rain, High 54, Low 48

Grade: B

San Diego, California

Ahh…. Sunny southern California. Let’s hope this is a lackadaisical, easy forecast.

At 953AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with partly cloudy skies. An occluding system off the northern California coast was bringing some showers and clouds north of San Francisco, but San Diego was between systems, and enjoying a light onshore flow.
The system entering in northern California will be guided well north of San Diego. A weak cold front will pass through town overnight tonight, but likely will not be marked by any significant change in the weather. Expect morning clouds and haze, but not much else in terms of significant weather for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, especially in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Wednesday – Cloudy early, pleasant in the afternoon, High 68, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 64, Low 57
Wednesday – Abundant sunshine. High 68, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with sunshine and patchy clouds High 65, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 68, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 64, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunny High 67, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the morning…then mostly sunny in the afternoon High 64, Low 57
Wednesday –
Mostly sunny High 67, Low 55

And a look at the satellite shows a pretty quiet day for southern California. Note that EVERYONE went with the same lows (except us!). Incredible.

Port St. Lucie, Florida

Off to the Sunshine State today, where it looks like it should be in abundance to start the week!

At 653pm EDT, the temperature was 77 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms were very much absent over the Florida Peninsula today, as a ridge of high pressure shifting over the region pretty much put the kibosh on any development. Not even the seabreeze, which almost acts like a mini-front and can ignite when the collide over the states’ interior, sparked anything today. Much of Florida will once again be under the influence of this high pressure for the next couple of days while a very large area of low pressure will make headlines in the central part of the country. Should the seabreeze kick up again during the next couple of days, any suspect storms should form off to the western half of the Peninsula, keeping Port St. Lucie on the dry side. Break out the sunscreen!

Monday: Mostly sunny, some afternoon clouds. High 83, Low 72.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 70.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 83, Low 71.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 84, Low 74.

AW: Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 81, Low 71.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, continued breezy in afternoon. High 81, Low 69.

NWS: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 74.
Tuesday: Sunny and windy. High 83, Low 71.

WB: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 70.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 82, Low 71.

As you can see, no clouds of note to really speak of around the area, let alone precip. However, on a somewhat more interesting note, we can see the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream lift northward off the east side of the state and off towards the Carolina coastline. Behold the wonders of infrared technology!

Omaha, Nebraska

A forecast for the heartland of America. Will it be a lovely couple of days?

At 12:52 PM CDT, it was 50 degrees under mostly cloudy skies at Omaha. An area of high pressure is found off to the east of Omaha currently, keeping the weather today rather pleasant, with most of the clouds staying off to the east. Tonight into tomorrow morning should be fairly quiet as well as high pressure pushes off to the east. However, changes are in the air for the Central Plains the next couple of days! An area of low pressure will be developing over the Western U.S. tomorrow, deepening as Sunday continues. A strong southerly flow will kick up ahead of this system, increasing the clouds and also producing some rain showers throughout the region, but nothing that should be too terribly heavy. Southerly winds will continue to blow throughout the night into Monday morning, keeping temperatures a lil bit on the higher side at daybreak.  Low pressure will eject out into the Central Plains Monday morning, with rain spreading into Omaha during the morning as well. Some thunderstorms are possible with this initial surge as it pushes through, with some heavy rains possible. Since the low will pass either right overhead or slightly to the south, chances of severe thunderstorms will be on the low side for NE at this time, but far better for Kansas and farther southward. All told, it’s going to be a rather soggy start to the workweek for eastern Nebraska. Hope nobody gets a case of the Mondays!

Sunday: Cloudy, a few showers. High 60, Low 38.
Monday: Rain, possible thunderstorms. Windy most of the day. High 58, Low 48.

TWC: Sunday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 59, Low 39.
Monday: Rain and thunderstorms, windy as well. High 56, Low 47.

AW: Sunday: Cloudy with some rain showers, windy. High 59, Low 39.
Monday: Rain, possible thunderstorms. Over 1″ of rain possible. High 56, Low 45.

NWS: Sunday: 30% chance of showers. High 60, Low 35.
Monday: 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 58, Low 44.

WB: Sunday: 30% chance of showers. High 60, Low 35.
Monday: Showers likely. High 58, Low 44.

Here the thicker low clouds are found off to the easy in Iowa, with some higher clouds farther south in OK and KS. By tomorrow, it’ll be far more cloudier over the fields of Nebraska.

Steamy days

Chattanooga was forecast to see some hot weather, especially when compared to what they should be at in early May. Temperatures fluttered around in the high 80s for the past couple of days, which. if nothing else will help the state dry out after their torrential rains. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied atop the leader board.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 87, Low 57
Thursday – High 88, Low 60

Grade: A

Clearing out for spring

The middle of the week wasn’t too bad in Evansville. They saw some very early morning showers on Tuesday, but it recovered and was around 80 the next couple of days. Everyone who didn’t forecast an enormous warmup for Wednesday was able to claim a good forecast, with Weatherbug having the top spot, narrowly edging V-W and the Weather Service.
Actuals: Tuesday – .07 inches of rain/thunderstorms, High 78, Low 52
Wednesday – High 83, low 56

Grade: A

Chattanooga, Tennessee

In one sense, we couldn’t have asked for a better week to talk about the weather of Tennessee. Of course, the reason for that is devastating and melancholy. Perhaps we can bring some better news to Chattanooga.

At 953PM, ET, Chattanooga was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. They are presently between systems, and will enjoy a quiet night. The front that had dumped so much rain on Tennessee is now sitting along the Carolina coast, and the next system lies over the northern Plains, with a cold front tailing through Iowa.
This system is likely not to spread it’s influence as far south as Chattanooga, and is going to occlude rather rapidly thanks to a fairly east-west flowing jet. This will mean a warm up, uncomfortable perhaps to some, thanks to the flow associated with the system, and the cold front likely will not dip further south than the Great Lakes. A minor cool down is a possibility on Thursday with a change in wind direction to come more from the west-northwest, but it will not come with precipitation.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 89, Low 59
Thursday – Continued hot, with a some clouds in the afternoon, High 90, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Warm High 87, Low 56
Thursday – More sun than clouds. High 89, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine High 88, Low 56
Thursday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 87, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny High 87, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 59
Thursday – Sunny High 89, Low 59

And the NWS point forecast done broke again. That’s a shame. Here is the satellite, showing you where the recent front pulled off to.

Soaker

A cold front has stalled itself along the Appalachians and Smokeys. The city of Nashville is underwater, if you haven’t heard, and the state of Tennessee is in the midst of a full blown catastrophe, with dozens dead due to the rising floodwaters. Kingsport, our forecast from Saturday, was spared that degree of unpleasantness, though the beginning of the week was not enjoyable to say the least. After a brief tease of some rain in the midst of near 90 degree heat on Sunday, they got over an inch of rain on Monday. As it turned out, Weatherbug tied us for the top spot on this one.
Actuals: Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 89, Low 60
Monday – 1.08 inches of rain, High 79, Low 65

Grade B

Evansville, Indiana

Far southern Indiana, along the shores of the Ohio River for today’s forecast. What mysteries does Evansville provide?

At 954PM, CT, Evansville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. A fairly inactive cold front lurked to the west over central Illinois, generating a temperature drop off of 10-15 degrees. At this time, however, Evansville was looking at another unseasonably warm day with sunny skies.
A frontal passage over the weekend brought dew points down to the more manageable 50s, and will allow temperatures to spike with the drier conditions. The warmer temperatures may generate enough energy for some showers and storms, particularly to the north later today and into early tomorrow morning.After those scattered showers and storms move out, likely around sunrise, Evansville will see a prolonged period of pleasant weather. A system moving along the US/Canadian border will bring a slight chance for inclement weather late on Wednesday, however the bulk of the forecast period will be dry and the system to the north will aid in southerly flow which will keep things quite warm.
Tomorrow – AM Showers and storms, High 79, Low 55
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, High 83, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. (AM showers/storms) Warm. High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunshine. High 87, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (AM Showers) High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Very warm with sunshine high 85, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (AM Rain), High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (AM Showers). High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 56

Not bad for hours that residents of Evansville are actually awake. A look at the satellite shows that front that swept through over the weekend, and some poofy clouds that may end up as thunderstorms tonight.