Category Archives: Forecast

Watching out for Number 5

The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at the time we issued the Tallahassee forecast has since been labeled Tropical Depression 5. There isn’t much chance that it will be a hurricane at any point in it’s life cycle, and there is even a chance that the system won’t even become a Tropical Storm. It is expected to stall over the Mississippi Delta, providing more problems for an area that certainly doesn’t need any. The system also showed a more northerly track than I had indicated in my forecast on Sunday, and they saw a thunderstorm in Tallahassee yesterday.In the end, Weatherbug and The Weather Channel ended up getting the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – High 96, Low 77
Tuesday – .38 inhes of rain, High 94, Low 78

Grade B

Summery in South Carolina

Thunderstorms are always hit or miss in the southeast. They never move in lines like they do further north, they crop up and drift. It’s really hard to say whether a certain city will see a storm beyond about two hours. Somehow, Weatherbug correctly asserted that the rain would not find it’s way into Greenville, and were the only ones to do so. The best part was that their temperature forecast was the best by a few degrees as well, so it wasn’t just luck that won the forecast. In fact, the forecast was only off by a degree total through the period.
Actuals: Sunday, High 91, Low 73
Monday, High 93, Low 73

Grade: A

Perfect weather

Well, it is for me at least. It may have been a little too hot and humid for most in Louisville for the past few days with highs in the 90s and dew points high enough for it to be muggy. I like that, I can understand if you might not. Anyways, the top forecasts, good ones at that, went to V-W and The Weather Channel
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 68
Sunday – High 93, Low 69

Grade: A

Tallahassee, Florida

We’re forecasting for the capital of Florida. Fun fact, it’s actually warmer here in Minneapolis than it is in Tallahassee.

At 653PM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. A mostly stationary boundary has existed along a line from southern Arkansas towards Tampa for most of the day, and is continuing to touch of thunderstorms off the coast south of Tallahassee and to the west, generally west of Panama City.
An area of low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will traverse the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple 18 hours or so and will lie south of Tallahassee by tomorrow. Fortunately, this will put Tallahassee in a perfect position, with flow becoming off shore, deadening the threat for showers and storms. The system, which does have a slight chance of becoming a tropical storm, will stay well south of Tallahassee as it passes through the Gulf, which will allow the Floridian capital a rare 48 hours of dry air.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 74
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 97, Low 76
Tuesday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 96, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 97, Low 75
Tuesday – A blend of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm; hot High 97, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot High 97, Low 74
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm High 95, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms, High 97, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76

I’m a little cooler than the rest. Humidity and noth winds should keep temperatures from climbing too terribly high. The radar shows thunderstorms off to the west.

Greenville, South Carolina

Up into the Piedmont to end out week today.

At 1153AM, ET, Greenville was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. A persistent boundary, borne both of a weak surface low just off the coast and the moisture of the Gulf of Mexico sat just south of the Greenville-Spartanburg area and was generating some clouds along the Georgia border and keeping dew points a little bit lower than sites touth of the boundary.
The weak system will actually do enough to keep moisture south of Greenville for today. The effect of Tropical Storm Colin in the western Atlantic will actually assist in shifting the boundary south, further away from Greenville, but the absence of an east-westboundary will allow for a weak north-south wave to ripple into the Piedmont and bring the threat for an isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon.
Tomorrow- Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 71
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 94, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 90, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later; warm High 95, Low 72
Monday – Partly sunny and remaining warm High 94, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 72
Monday – slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 91, Low 73
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 94, Low 73

Wow, not often Weatherbug and the Weather Service have different precipitation forecast. Here is the latest satellite.

A lucky few degrees

It’s a dangerous thing, trusting the models unquestioningly. In mountainous locations, I wouldn’t dare try to divine the temperatures out west without the raw numbers given by models, but I noticed that in Wenatchee, the models had been trending cooler for the past several days, so I reflected that in my forecast. Sure enough, Victoria-Weather had the best forecast. It was only better by a degree or two every day, but that eventually added up to an easy win.
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 61
Saturday – High 88, Low 59

Grade: C

Louisville, Kentucky

At 10:53AM EDT, the temperature at Louisville was 79 degrees under clear skies. An area of high pressure at the surface and the lower levels of the atmosphere is parked over the Mid-MS River Valley and extends itself up into the Great Lakes and over through much of the Ohio Valley. A cold front that made its way through New England and the Mid-Atlantic states has pushed southward and looks to linger over the Southeast for the next day or two. With the high pressure shifting eastward, and the resultant stationary front keeping the main core of moisture off to the south, residents of Louisville can actually look forward to a couple days of nice, sunny weather. Sunday will probably see a few more clouds as the main dome of high pressure quickly slides off to the east, but Louisville still appears to be dry as a system pushes through the Great Lakes. Granted the temperatures will push back up into the 90s, but shouldn’t be anything like the brutal heat much of the South-Central and Southeastern US has had to deal with over the last week or so where heat indicies often climbed into the 110’s. Certainly looks like a great weekend to go to the pool!

Saturday: Sunny. High 90, Low 67.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, a few more clouds. High 94, Low 67.

TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 89, Low 68.
Sunday: Sunny. High 92, Low 68.

AW: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 66.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Hugh 96, Low 68.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny. High 90, Low 62.
Sunday: Continued sunny. High 92, Low 68.

WB: Saturday: Sunny. High 92, Low 69.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 68.

Here we see most of Kentucky fairly benign, while some high clouds and storms rumble across Tennessee. Should be more of the same for Louisville over the next couple of days!

Wenatchee, Washington

I had to look up Wenatchee when doing this forecast too. It’s nestled into the eastern slope of the Cascades, if you are ever told you need to go to Wenatchee.

At 955AM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. Warm temperatures and a rash of thunderstorms in the Cascades has led to flash flood was being issued for the area. There is a weak upper level trough in the area, though with no jet support it appeared as though it would not be able to develop anything at the surface. Expect mostly sunny conditions for Wenatchee each of the next two days.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 62
Friday – Sunny, High 91, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. Hot. High 95, Low 67
Friday – Sunshine. High 92, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot High 93, Low 65
Friday – Sunny High 91, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, High 96, Low 65
Friday – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 97, Low 64
Friday – Mostly Sunny, High 93, Low 64

Weatherbug sure had a lot to say there, didn’t they? A look at the satellite shows some puffs over the Cascades that are likely producing a bit of rain.

The definition of isolated

For Monday, everyone had the threat for thunderstorms in their forecast for Bismarck. I had even mentioned that they would be isolated in my forecast. On Monday evening, one cell popped up northwest of Bismarck, taking with it a tornado warning and rolled right through North Dakota’s capital. There were 40mph winds at the airport, and the city received a quick quarter inch of rain. The forecasts were tightly clustered, but The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us.
Actuals: Monday – .25 inches of rain in a heavy thunderstorm, High 86, Low 65
Tuesday – High 83, Low 62

Grade B

Bad luck

A small little dash of rain, that’s all it took to throw forecasts off for everyone. Fort Wayne had a trace of rain reported late yesterday. They didn’t even endure whatever caused it long enough to show up in observations, only in rain gauges. Nevertheless, everyone knew about the possibility, but nobody truly took it seriously. The top forecast on this occasion went to Weatherbug who had a fairly exceptional temperature forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 85, Low 61
Monday – Trace of rain, High 86, Low 65

Grade B