Category Archives: Forecast

Surprising chill

That’s a tough title to wrap your head around when, in fact, Jefferson City was in the mid 80s for highs for the past two days. When everyone forecasts highs a few degrees warmer, thanks to the clear skies and southerly flow, it is a little surprising that temperatures don’t get up to the neighborhood we were expecting. Victoria Weather still managed the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 64
Friday – High 86, Low 62

Grade: C

San Jose, California

Off to the West Coast and the Bay Area for today’s forecast. People don’t know it, but this is one of the three biggest cities in California.

At 853AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with a few low clouds. The marine layer was still keeping things murky on the northern and central areas of the Bay, but the southern Bay was already clearing out and will warm up nicely this afternoon.
A trough over the northern Rockies continues to move extremely slowly, and a boundary has moved incrementally over the past several days. It has only been problematic in Montana, where the system is centered, but the flow associated with the low has meant a northwesterly flow off the Pacific. The ridge in the east is rather enormous, and it is not expected to allow the western trough to advance rapidly, and the northerly flow will continue. Expect foggy, cloudy mornings and a sunnier, warmer afternoon.
Tomorrow – Dreary in the morning, then sunny, High 83, Low 56
Sunday – A carbon copy of Saturday, with morning haze and sunny skies later, 87, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – High Mainly sunny. High 84, Low 57
Sunday – Sunshine High 88, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – A full day of sunshine High 83, Low 56
Sunday – Bright and sunny High 88, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 86, Low 57
Sunday – Sunny High 84, Low 59

I’m confused as to why the NWS and Weatherbug are going cooler on Sunday. That doesn’t seem right. And of course, Sunday is Independence Day, so it looks like it will be good in San Jose!

A breath of fresh air

Sioux City successfully made it through the end of June without any more problems, seeing temperatures in the lower 80s with not a drop of rain to be had. Not a bad way to close out the month, especially the way it had been going. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 82, Low 53
Wednesday – High 84, Low 56

Grade: A

Jefferson City, Missouri

And we’re off to central Missouri for the forecast on this beautiful Wednesday.

At 1053AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Hurricane Alex and a cold front were interacting to keep showers and thunderstorms south of at least Memphis. High pressure over the northern US was able to build south into the area.
That high pressure will dominate for the next two days. The city will be at the back edge of the ridge, which will mean a southerly flow and warming temperatures through the end of the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 59
Friday – Sunny skies continue, High 86, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 60
Friday – Abundant sunshine. High 88, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine and nice High 86, Low 58
Friday – Pleasant with brilliant sunshine High 87, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 58
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 83, Low 58
Sunny – Sunny. High 85, Low 59

Beautiful weather for the capitol city to end the week and to kick off the holiday weekend.

Too many storms

I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over the forecast period, avoiding any real severe weather due to the timing of the thunderstorms. Well, instead the storms came through in the middle of the day on Sunday and left a swath of damage in the Cleveland metro. There was a small tornado up in Ashtabula, but most of the damage was the result of straight line winds. The airport in Cleveland reported winds of over 40mph in the early evening. The Weather Channel, as seems to be usual lately, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Monday – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade: B

Sioux City, Iowa

Sioux City has been getting raked over the coals the past few days, but finally it appears they are clearing out, ready to enjoy some much better weather.

At 152PM, CT, Sioux City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. A long, low amplitude ridge was shifting into the center of the country. It wasn’t inhibiting much because of it’s strength, but there was little at the surface to kick up showers or storms.
The presence of Tropical Storm Alex in the Bay of Campeche will also aid in capping any thunderstorm development for the next several days by redirecting Gulf moisture away from the typical corridor up the Mississippi. A weak trough will begin to move in late on Wednesday, however it will only serve to knock down temperatures by a couple degrees and kick up some winds as there will be no moisture to work with.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny with increasing winds High 87, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunshine. High 87, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Sunshine High 85, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny. High 84, Low 58

It’s certainly going to be a relief for residents of Siouxland not to have to deal with another torrential downpour tonight. A look at the satellite tells that, in fact, it is quiet in Sioux City.

I never did care for New Mexico

Some of the worst forecasts I have ever seen came from New Mexico. Many moons ago, there was a forecast out for Albuquerque where the best one was a mere 44 degrees in error off from the proper forecast. Perhaps we should count ourselves lucky that this forecast in Las Cruces was only off by 20 or so degrees. Despite calm winds and clear skies, the temperature failed to get above 90 on Saturday, while clear skies allowed temperatures to drop to 60 degrees on Sunday morning. Those two factors led to some very sad forecasters. Sidebar: I can’t figure out why Las Cruces reported an observation every 20 minutes. Everyone I know, unless there is ongoing weather, reports on the hour. Quite peculiar, New Mexico. Despite my complaints, Victoria-Weather had the top ‘cast for Las Cruces.
Actuals: Saturday, High 89, Low 71
Sunday, High 96, Low 60

Grade: D

Foiled by sprinkles

Only one outlet had the thundershowers properly forecast in Lewiston, Idaho. One little guy snuck into town in the early afternoon on Friday and brought a trace of rain, and the Weather Channel had it in their forecast. TWC’s correct precip forecast gave them the victory, as it knocked V-W out of the top spot. Blast!
Actuals: Friday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 59
Saturday – High 83, Low 56

Grade: B

Cleveland, Ohio

Finally, we’re moving out of the Mountain Time Zone for today’s forecast. Perhaps by issuing this forecast, we can convince Lebron James to stay in town.

At 1151, AM, ET, Cleveland was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A southwesterly wind was ensuring a warm wind ahead of a stationary boundary in southern Ontario. Some showers were beginning to show up over western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania, and the threat was there for some showers and thunderstorms, some heavy, this afternoon.
A weak upper level trough will gather itself over the northern Plains after having dug deep into the Rockies, which should lead to a more well established and easily defined system. It will also become more likely that the stronger showers and thunderstorms follow the jet stream, which is to the north of Cleveland. The hot humid air will still touch off a few thunderstorms as the system passes through Michigan into Canada. Sunday night into Monday morning, the cold front associated with this system will work it’s way through town, another bit of luck, as this will keep the threat for severe storms to a minimum. A subsequent cool flow off of Lake Erie will keep things pleasant during the day on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, warm. High 88, Low 71
Monday – Early AM Showers and storms, cooler, High 83, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 90, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. High 83, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun, hot and humid with a thunderstorm, becoming breezy in the afternoon High 90, Low 68
Monday – Clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; breezy High 83, Low 69 (non standard)

NWS: Tomorrow – chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 87, Low 68
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy High 81, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny…warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 68
Monday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms High 81, Low 70

And now a look at the radar to show you were those scattered showers are.

Las Cruces, New Mexico

I told you I would b earlier with my post today! Here we are, off to southern New Mexico.

At 1150 AM, MT, Las Cruces was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. The dewpoint was at 46 degrees, suggesting the dry line was well to the east. A weak upper level trough was producing an similarly weak surface low over the 4 corners. Flow across the Gulf was drawing north towards a stronger feature along the northern tier, and Las Cruces was able to stay dry.
The weak trough will recede north and help development along the norther tier. Overnight tonight if any moisture can find it’s way to southern New Mexico it will likely go up as a thunderstorm. After that, expect mostly sunny skies and hot weather, the typical summer time fare for Las Cruces.
Tomorrow – Early AM showers, then sunny, High 97, Low 72
Sunday – Hot and partly cloudy, High 96, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 99, Low 71
Sunday – Partly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon High 97, Low 68
Sunday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy High 98, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning…then partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 101, Low 68
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 100, Low 68

Weatherbug once again has some matching problems. Pretty totasting in Las Cruces, though.