Category Archives: Forecast

Hanford, California

We are going to the home of central California’s weather service. I can tell you nothing else about Hanford.

At 953AM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with sunny skies. The humidity in the valley was unusually high, with dew points in the low 60s for areas surrounding. High pressure was dominating the region, with a mostly northerly flow bringing in some of the unexpected moisture into the Valley from the low lying areas of San Francisco Bay. The sunny skies are generating the warm inland temperatures.
Mostly laminar flow over the northwest is generating disturbed weather over the Pacific Northwest, but at the same time is cutting it off from reaching south into California. If anything, the jet aloft will ridge, creating even more stability, heat and a little bit of humidity for Hanford.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, hot, High 93, Low 63
Sunday – Hot, High 95, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 96, Low 67
Sunday – Sunny High 98, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with brilliant sunshine High 91, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and very warm High 93, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow -Sunny. High 94, Low 64
Sunday – Sunny. High 94, Low 64

The temperature forecasts are surprisingly divergent Here is the satellite, showing how sunny California is.

Auburn, Alabama

Alabama day continues here at Victoria-Weather. Let’s take a look at Auburn, a little bit further south than Decatur.

At 115PM, CT, Auburn was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. Showers and thunderstorms were being seen generally south of Auburn and Montgomery, though Alexander City to the northwest was reporting a shower passing over the city.
Weak low pressure dominated the US east of the Mississippi, with a small wave over the Great Lakes, and a jet trough over northeastern Mexico. The trough over Mexico will become more important for southern Alabama as the weekend approaches. With the heat and humidity already in place, no trigger has been needed for afternoon thunderstorms. Don’t be surprised if, as the upper level low shifts slowly towards the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms in Auburn are stronger and better organized for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid High 81, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 69
Saturday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 85, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 67
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 69

Low temperature spreads are usually the result of clouds hampering a city’s ability to warm up. In Alabama, the high dew points are preventing things from cooling off. Here is a look at the radar, showing those thunderstorms south of Auburn.

Unstable

No, the title doesn’t allude to the mental state of Anthony and myself. It describes the summer time atmosphere in Decatur. As Anthony correctly described, the heat in the afternoons led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama, some of them clipping Decatur both Tuesday and Wednesday. As it turned out, the coverage of thunderstorms was enough that temperatures on Wednesday didn’t reach the 90s as had been initially forecast. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thanks in large part to out right-down-the-middle forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68
Wednesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 66

Grade: B

Decatur, Alabama

Off to the Deep South, where it NEVER thunderstorms this time of year…

At 1:53pm CDT, the temperature at Decatur, AL was 80 degrees under fair skies. A few thunderstorms are found just off towards the east near Huntsville, but otherwise right now seeing a little break in the action. The overall regime for the next couple of days doesn’t look to be changing much as the main jet stream stays fairly zonal over the northern tier of the US. A Bermuda High looks to stay rather persistent over… well… Bermuda, which keeps a general southerly flow going over the Southeastern US, keeping the flow of moisture from the Gulf open. Add in the normal afternoon instability that always results when temperatures push into the 80s and 90s over the region, and you get scattered thunderstorms over pretty much the entire area every afternoon. Just be sure to keep an eye on the radar as these types of thunderstorms seem to pop up quickly and die out just as fast. Happy Memorial Day readers!

Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms. High 86, Low 67.
Wednesday: 40% chance of some scattered thunderstorms. High 89, Low 67.

TWC: Tuesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 84, Low 66.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 88, Low 66.

AW: Tuesday: 60% chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 67.
Wednesday: 20% chance of thunderstorms. High 94, Low 65.

NWS: Tuesday: 40% chance of showers and storms. High 87, Low 66.
Wednesday: 20% chance of isolated showers/storms. High 92, Low 66.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of storms. High 87, Low 66.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of storms. High 92, Low 68.

Here we see the thunderstorms currently off to the east, and moving away from the Decatur area. Will we see some of this activity move overhead in the next couple of days? Time will tell…

A first taste of summer

It’s only late May, but the banks of the Mississippi in Iowa have already seen the temperatures climb to the lower 90s, like in Davenport the past couple of days. Thunderstorms, as I predicted, remained out of Davenport, and the city merely saw a couple days of hot, humid air. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 71
Monday – High 92, Low 69

Grade: A

Delmarva Shower

High pressure to the north has kept a steady sort of onshore flow over the Mid-Atlantic states. Some afternoon instability had ignited some scattered showers near Dover. They missed on Saturday, but did drop about a tenth of an inch on Sunday as they had a few bouts of light sprinkles though. Temperatures overall were pretty steady, with the Weather Channel taking home the top spot.

Saturday: High 73, Low 60.
Sunday: 0.08″ of rain in periodic showers. High 69, Low 62.
Forecast grade: A

Davenport, Iowa

Off to the Quad Cities for this likely to be warm forecast. Enjoy.

At 552PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. A warm front that has developed through the morning has lifted through the Quad Cities, and Davenport was several degrees warmer than a few sites just off to the northeast of the city. The system is dong an excellent job drawing hot, humid air in from the south, and the temperature dichotomy should make for some interesting weather tomorrow and Monday, though most of it will stay northwest of Davenport.
An unseasonably strong jet trough over the Rockies is generating the area of low pressure in the Dakotas that is drawing the hot air north into Davenport. A ridge in the east is the stronger system, however, and is doing an excellent job of blocking any systems that will attempt to shift east. As a result, the jet will operate as a conveyor belt, with the next system setting up over Nebraska and following a similar track through the Dakotas. The result for Davenport will be even more warm air imported from the south.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 90, Low 68
Monday – Continued warm with partly to mostly cloudy skies, High 91, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 68
Monday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy, very warm and more humid with some sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the area High 89, Low 65
Monday – Breezy, hot and humid with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 93, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloud High 89, Low 66
Monday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 66
Monday – Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, low 69

Everyone else is calling for thunderstorms, but if they form, I think they will be on the other side of the Mississippi, and if they do develop, they won’t be terribly organized. Here is the satellite. There is a tornado watch in eastern South Dakota.

Dover, Delaware

Off to America’s first state, and the capital Dover for the weekend forecast. I think it’s going to be a mildly interesting forecast.

At 1255PM, ET, Dover was already reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. A weak surface low was feeding off of some fairly widespread instability in the center of the country, triggering showers and thunderstorms for most of the Ohio Valley and importing the clouds seen in Delaware.
The weak wave aloft feeding the weak circulation at the surface has certainly hung around much longer than was initially forecast, but it’s influence will continue to wane with a strong trough over the northwest moving into Upper Midwest. Still, the remnant moisture of the weak surface system will work it’s way into the Mid-Atlantic, bringing the threat for some murky skies and passing showers for the extent of the weekend.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, chance of drizzle, High 71, Low 61
Sunday – Isolated showers, cloudy, High 70, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies (PM rain) High 72, Low 60
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 70, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with sun and clouds (PM Rain) High 72, Low 59
Sunday – Variable cloudiness with a couple of showers High 71, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am High 72, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM rain) High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 72, Low 59

That shower activity in the center of the country looks quite impressive on satellite. There are some weather watches with thunderstorms in Indiana and Georgia with this guy as well.

Quite a disparity

We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as anyone can tell you, it’s a challenging place to forecast for. It was for 4 of our forecasters on Tuesday when we put together the forecast for Great Falls. Victoria-Weather’s was the only forecast to call for a cool down after the rain on Thursday, and it paid off, as the low on Thursday came late and dipped to 35. This bugs me, because I actually brought our low up when seeing that the meteorological consensus was that the front wouldn’t carry as much cold air behind it. This is why your mom tells you to believe in yourself. Even after all of that, however, VW had a much better forecast than everyone else.
Actuals: Wednesday – .08″ of rain High 71, Low 51
Thursday – .06″ of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: B

Let’s get Oxnarded

With the rain they saw in Oxnard on Tuesday, they received 10 times their monthly total. Of course, they average .01″ in the month of May, so by many other people’s standards, the rain wasn’t too terribly heavy, but in Oxnard, it was quite a bit. Especially on the heels of last months .69″ of rain. It’s a veritable monsoon down there! The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – .10 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Wednesday – High 63, Low 53

Grade: A