Category Archives: Forecast

Sizzling Out West

Well the high pressure ridge out west kept much of the West Coast and Desert Southwest scorching this week, and Redding was no different. Temperatures nearly cracked 100 on Monday, then followed it up with an even hotter Tuesday. However, the calm winds and clear skies did help radiate out temperatures greatly during the night, falling into the mid 50s. That’s where most people got burnt, figuratively speaking of course. That aside, Ryan’s forecast for VW brought home the title, narrowly edging AW. That’s 2 out of the last 3 for yours truly, lets see if we can continue the hot streak to finish out the month!

Monday: High 99, Low 55.
Tuesday: High 103, Low 54.
Forecast grade: C

Springfield, Illinois

Yep, Late again.

At 152AM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. A dominant area of low pressure has become established across the center of the country, leaving mostly ground based influences, like maturing crops, to contribute to to fog or any other phenomenon for the rest of the morning.
Expect Thursday to be very similar to Wednesday as well, with some patchy areas of morning fog, but an otherwise quiet middle of the week with sunny skies and pleasant temperatures.
Today – Sunny, High 77, Low 48
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 54

TWC: Today – Sunny. High 78, Low 51
Tomorrow- A mainly sunny sky, High 75, Low 57

AW: Today – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 78, Low 46
Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 74, Low 54

NWS: Today – Sunny, High 77, Low 47
Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 54

WB: Today – Sunny, High 77, Low 50
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 54

This was the most frustrating forecast. Only because my computer is acting poopy, the weather looks nice though.

Pueblo, Colorado

We’re going to head down to Pueblo today, about as different a city from Denver as you’ll find while still in Colorado.

At 953AM, ET, Pueblo was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. A slight bent in the winds indicated some light troughing on the lee side of the Rockies, but the only influence at present was some clouds in the Colorado Plains.
Over the next two days, the jet will continue to ripple north and further away from the center of the country, introducing a warming trend for much of the northern tier later in the week. For now, however, this simply means pleasant weather going forward in Pueblo.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 45
Wednesday – Still quite dry, High 87, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. Hot. High 91, Low 50
Wednesday – Sunshine High 93, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot with the temperature tying the record from 1998 High 94, Low 46
Wednesday – Hot with the temperature breaking the record of 92 last reached in 1994 with sizzling sunshine High 95, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 92, Low 48
Wednesday – Sunny High 94, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 90, Low 47
Wednesday – Sunny, High 93, Low 51

This might as well just be a map, rather than a satellite image. There is NOTHING going on out west.

The Ninja System

Usually when a forecast goes awry, the explanation is hard to come by. A band of clouds slipped a couple miles north, the wind was gustier than expected or an isolated shower was actually a little bit more scattered. On the whole, we all tend to have a pretty good handle on the broader system, missing only some details. This was not the case in Philadelphia. An entire rainy, complicated system blew up over the southeastern US and started pumping moisture into the Philadelphia area. The upper level trough associated with this developing system sharpened and strengthened a lot more than expected, so after a cold front got to Philadelphia, the boundary stalled and started acting as a stationary or even a back door warm front, and moisture from the southeast started funneling north. Clouds and drizzle were present through almost the entire day yesterday, and temperatures never had a chance to drop off like initially expected. It was a pretty bad forecast all around, but the lack of effective model guidance was the real killer. The Weather Channel managed to have the best forecast, but I’m not sure they deserve any credit.
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, Low 72
Sunday – .04 inches of rain, High 73, Low 65

Grade: D

Redding, California

We’re off to California for tonight’s forecast. It’s going to rain everywhere out east, so I’m in the mood for good news.

At 752PM, PT, Redding was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. The west was remarkably quiet, with a stalled front over the Pacific Northwest the only nearby threat for rain, however the system was held up by a dominant ridge,
Inland, California continues to be clear and dry, while the coast will contend with the marine layer. Expect a summerlike feel for Redding for the next two days, as temperatures continue to flirt with 100.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 101, Low 59
Tuesday – Hot, High 101, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Very hot. High 103, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny. High 101, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with the temperature tying the record from 2009 with abundant sunshine High 101, Low 59
Tuesday – Sizzling sunshine and hot High 97, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot High 102, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Unseasonably hot, High 100, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, High 98, Low 63

So wait, the abundant sunshine currently holds the temperature? Is 101 hotter than that? I may have read Accuweather’s forecast incorrectly.

Nailed it!

Anthony mentioned in the forecast for Fresno that bikini weather would survive. Perhaps we just need to get him thinking about swimwear, because he nailed the forecast, missing only be two degrees on the Saturday high and achieving perfection on the other three verifying times. Well played. Bikini season forever!
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 58
Saturday – High 95, Low 60

Grade: A

Trapped!

There was a lot of moisture trapped south of the Mason-Dixon line yesterday, and some of that bubbled up into thunderstorms for McAllen. They received over a half an inch of rain yesterday, which was a lot more than I think anyone anticipated, as a 30% chance was as high as anyone went. That said ,the top spot went to Accuweather, who posted an excellent temperature forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 92, Low 76
Friday – .55inches of rain, High 93, Low 76

Grade: A

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We’re off to the city of brotherly love for a forecast AND a blog roundup. Check the bottom of the post to see some great Philly weather blogs.

At 1154AM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a hazy 82 degrees, with still dispersing fog being found north of town thanks to a massive autumnal system moving into the Great Lakes. Southerly flow was being directed off of the Delaware Bay and into the Philadelphia area. It will lead to some near record temperatures today, as the system is proving to be quite effective at drawing in warm air.
Of course, on the back end of the storm, there is a very dense batch of cold air sliding into the northern Plains, chasing the hot air out. The system, however, is becoming quite wrapped up in itself, and instead of a strong line of thunderstorms later in the week, a cool occlusion with little if any precipitation is all the area should expect. Some gusty winds are possible on Saturday.
Tomrorow – Passing clouds, with some wind, High 86, low 62 (non standard)
Sunday – Clearing and cooler, High 69, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 84, Low 64
Sunday – Chance of showers. High 72, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy, very warm and less humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 66
Sunday – Cooler with periods of clouds and sunshine High 71, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 66
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 86, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 55

That’s a fairly resounding entry into fall for the Philly area, and you can see why. That’s a pretty broad system over the Lakes.

Now lets check out a couple Philly weather blogs!

First, we have Phillyweather.net which offers, among other things, a PHillies gamecast.

Next up is theweatherguy, who is also sharing his outlook for the weekend, as he does every week.

Some good stuff coming from the general populace of Philadelphia, but nothing from the media. Interesting, but those two blogs are pretty good

A tough dry forecast

In my opinion, when you are forecasting for a place like Alexandria, it’s a tough sell discounting the threat for thunderstorms when it’s not the middle of winter. Yet Anthony and all four of our counterparts did just that for Wednesday, which paid off as Alexandria had a steamy but dry day. Weatherbug ended up with the top forecast, owing their quality precip forecast and their top notch temperatures, especially on Thursday.

Actuals: Wednesday – High 94, Low 73
Thursday – High 92, Low 72

Grade: A

Fresno, California

At 753PDT, the temperature in Fresno was 75 degrees under fair skies. With the major news-maker in the country being the system dumping buckets of rain over the Upper Midwest (over 10″ in Amboy, MN, between 2-3″ here in the Twin Cities), the sides of the country are in a relative calm. No place is feeling that more than in Fresno. An area of high pressure over the Intermountain West will continue to take hold over the region as an upper-level ridge reinforces it. What does that mean? Sunny skies and hot temperatures for the Central CA Valley. Fall officially arrived at 11:09PM EDT on Wednesday evening, but that doesn’t mean summer isn’t hanging on in some spots. Bikini weather survives!

Friday: Clear. High 91, Low 58.
Saturday: Clear and hot. High 97, Low 60.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 93, Low 61.
Saturday: Sunny. High 98, Low 64.

AW: Friday: Bright sunshine. High 90, Low 56.
Saturday: Continued clear and very warm. High 94, Low 60.

NWS: Friday: Clear. High 90, Low 60.
Saturday: Sunny and hot. High 96, Low 62.

WB: Friday: Sunny. High 90, Low 55.
Saturday: Sunny. High 95, Low 57.

Here’s a snapshot of the country. Clear skies over much of the Southwest, while the system in the Central US continues to cause wet havoc.