Category Archives: Forecast

Avoiding the thunder

There were severe thunderstorms in Washington DC yesterday, which isn’t terribly far from Newport News. As it turned out, though, the thunderstorms popped up just south of DC and shifted off to the north, narrowly averting the Hampton Roads area. Newport News only ended up with three hundredths of an inch of rain, but the passage of the cold front that generated the storms in DC did knock down temperatures several degrees. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 55
Monday – High 70, Low 55

Grade: B

Gainesville, Florida

Today we will go to north central Florida. Boy, that sounds nice right about now.

At 1213PM, ET. Gainesville was reporting light showers and a temperature of 53 degrees. A weak band of light rain was running from Jacksonville down towards Gainesville behind a cold front that had pushed deeper into the Peninsula. The upper level low generating this system was wrapped up in itself, sending multiple waves into Florida behind the cold front.
The system is still part of the larger flow and will continue to move northeast towards New England, where it is already providing rain and thunderstorms to the Mid Atlantic. The jet will broaden over the southeast, providing a healthy barrier between any Springtime systems and the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Expect a warming trend with clear and sunny skies for Gainesville for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow – Clearing, High 69, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 76, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 72, Low 47
Wednesday – More clouds than sun. High 78, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly sunny and comfortable High 77, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny High 71, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny high 77, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 77, Low 44

And the satellite (because the rain was too light to be a really informative radar still) shows the position of that low.

Columbus, Georgia

It’s our first return trip anywhere since the site relaunch. Good for you, Columbus.

At 1151PM, ET, Columbus was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 44 degrees. An area of low pressure had occluded itself over the southeast, putting Columbus into what will eventually be the dry slot. Right now, the inflow behind the occlusion is trafficking in clouds and light rain to the Florida Panhandle. The system will slow it’s easterly progress as it continues to occlude.
The occlusion process and a more north-south reorientation of an undercutting jet will send the system north along the Appalachians. Columbus will be the beneficiary, lying within the remaining dry slot. As the system pulls off to the northeast, a trailing trough may brush past the region on Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing some overnight clouds. Expect clearing then through Tuesday with a warm up possible as winds die down.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, increasing clouds late, High 53, Low 37
Tuesday – Cloudy early, then clearing and warmer, High 68, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early. A few showers developing later in the day. High 51, Low 40
Tuesday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 69, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cool with a shower in spots High 54, Low 39
Tuesday – Warmer with clouds giving way to sun High 66, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 65, low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. High 54, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 42

A look at the satellite shows us the big hairy system in the southeast.

Warm air advecting

I had mentioned that things would warm up in Richmond over this weekend ahead of a very Springlike system in the southern Plains. Hard to believe, given that it was the culprit for a snow storm in Oklahoma. Well, believe it, because that southerly flow ahead of the system drove temperatures even warmer than anyone was expecting, nearly hitting 80 on Saturday. That’s a pretty spectacular weekend if you were to ask me. The Weather Channel did see the warm up coming, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 41
Saturday – High 79, Low 42

Grade: A

Newport News, Virginia

There are a lot of sizable towns in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, as it is called. You have Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Hampton and, of course, Newport News.

At 154PM, ET, Newport News was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Southerly flow induced by a still developing system over the center of the country was bringing Summerlike air to Virginia and much of the east coast. The sunny skies and southerly flow promised to bring an 80 or warmer by days end.
An deep upper level trough is going to ride atop the subtropical jet right towards Newport News area. The jet orientation is going to lead to rapid occlusion, and the warm sector of the low will actually mean easterly flow for Newport News, causing temperatures to cool, clouds to mount and humidity to rise. The rain itself won’t arrive until Monday afternoon. When the rain does start, it will be heavy at times. Fortunately, the heaviest of the rain will pass south of the Hampton Roads.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 75, Low 53
Monday – Rain likely, High 66, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 76, Low 50
Monday – Rain and thunder. High 67, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm High 72, low 52
Monday – Rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; breezy High 68, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Monday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High 67, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 75, low 49
Monday – Showers in the morning…then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 67, Low 53

Rain is on it’s way. A very Springish system. That’s nice to see.

Richmond, Virginia

It’s a sad day in Richmond, where the hometown Richmond Spiders lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Bummer dudes.

At 1254AM, ET, Richmond was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 46 degrees. Richmond found itself between two systems, one a weak area of low pressure of the coast that was bringing rain and thunderstorms over the coast, and another, stronger developing low over the central plains that projected to develop further as it emerged into the Great Lakes.
The low off the coach will break apart as the jet shifts off the coast, however a sharp upper trough will emerge into the Great Lakes region to amplify the wet weather over the center of the country. In the next couple of days, the developing low over the Plains will begin to generate southerly flow for the Atlantic Coast, inevitably leading to a warming trend for Richmond.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 73 Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 79, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm High 75, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny, High 76, low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 44

Apologies for this coming so late. I’ll try to do better tomorrow. Enjoy some satellite imagery of a quiet night in Richmond.

California Dreamin’

It wasn’t the best of forecasts in Fresno, bt you really couldn’t make any complaints about the weather. Temperatures hung out in the upper 70s with only a few passing clouds. The Weather Channel had a narrow victory overall, but there was a three way tie for last (though not too far behind) for Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – High 78, Low 49

Grade: B

Unexpected sunshine

Sometimes when you check a verification, the forecast isn’t so good but you feel all right about that. Myrtle Beach is a perfect example. We all anticipated a cool beginning to the week in Myrtle Beach, but a healthy dose of sunshine warmed temperatures up, in some cases almost 10 degrees better than what had been in the forecast. The near 70 degree highs on Monday definitely threw a few people. in the end, the Weather Service had the best forecast, but I would venture to say the weather was even better than the forecasts.
Actuals: Sunday, High 63, Low 47
Monday – High 68, Low 46

Grade: C

Fresno, California

My inaugural post on the new site! With a complete lack of weather to boot! Well, that’s what happens in California sometimes…

At 953AM PDT, the temperature in Fresno, California was 53 degrees under some high cirrus clouds. A ridge is building over the Western US with only some high clouds pushing into CA from a frontal boundary festering offshore. That front will affect just the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest and maybe the extreme northwest portion of California on Tuesday. Some thicker high clouds might make their way over the Central Valley of CA as the remnant front pushes inland on Wednesday, but dry weather is expected for much of CA south of San Francisco. What does that mean? Mostly sunny skies and warm weather for the Golden State. I’ll be heading out to California myself in a few days to thaw out, so I hope the good weather continues!

Tuesday: Few high clouds. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: A few more clouds, continued pleasant. High 72, Low 49.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 48.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 52.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny. High 74, Low 48.
Wednesday: Sunny, a few high clouds. High 74, Low 47.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 49.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 52.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 46.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 73, Low 47.

Outside of the white snow-capped mountains of the Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains, there isn’t much to see over the Western US. Looks like bikini weather for some lucky Spring Breakers!

Midday thunder

I have been anticipating a rough forecast for somewhere for a while with the upper level low covering the eastern third of the country. There was too much room for a peek of sun to send temperatures skyrocketing, or the threat for constant rain to tamp temperatures down. For Columbus, it was a line of thunderstorms moving in on Friday before the heating of the day really got ramped up. All told, things weren’t as bad as they could have been, especially since V-W netted the victory.
Actuals: Friday – .59 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 50
Saturday .04 inches of rain, High 54, Low 43

Grade: C