Category Archives: Forecast

Unexpected lows

Lafayette was still supposed to see a reasonable southerly flow as a little system swung it’s way north of town over the past couple of days, which would bring some increasing humidity and of course, some warming temperatures. Temperatures didn’t respond as they were supposed to. Sure, everything was warmer than average, but every low was at least 4 degrees off. Unsightly. Then there was a mysterious .01″ of rain seen early Sunday morning, though it was discounted by the observer and no falling precip was ever reported. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top two forecasts.
Actuals: Saturday – High 82, Low 57
Sunday – High 87, Low 62

Grade C

Rocky Mount, North Carolina

Our forecast today takes us to Eastern North Carolina. A bit of a stomach ailment has left me in quarantine, so I only get this as my means as travel today.

At 653 PM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. A sharp but weak trough was digging into the Mississippi Valley, triggering a well wrapped area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes and thunderstorms along a cold front riding the Mississippi. The lack of strong flow through the trough, however, suggested that this system won’t hold itself together with nearly the same intensity going forward.
The upper level system will generally remain unmoved over the Great Lakes, but showers and occasionally heavy rain will arrive tomorrow afternoon. A much stronger, winter like system is crashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest, and will be only further enhanced as it arrives in the center of the country. The impact on Rocky Mount is that it will effectively chase any lingering moisture out of the eastern Carolinas by the end of the day on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, particularly in the afternoon, High 79, Low 56
Tuesday – Morning drizzle, very foggy, then cloudy, High 78, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 78, Low 59
Tuesday – Times of sun and clouds (AM Rain) High 83, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm; showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 79, Low 53
Tuesday – Partly sunny, very warm and humid High 81, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm High 78, Low 58
Tuesday – A chance of drizzle before 8am, then a slight chance of showers between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 79, Low 58
Tuesday – A chance of drizzle in the morning, mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, High 82, Low 64

I really think the clouds will be an issue for the high on Tuesday. apparently I’m the only one. A look at the satellite shows those thunderstorms over the Mississippi Valley.

Lafayette, Louisiana

We’re heading south to Lafayette, Louisiana the major city in south central Louisiana. It is also home to the aptly named Louisiana University at Lafayette.

At 1153AM, CT, Lafayette was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Generally light flow was seen over land, and a light on shore flow was being seen over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This has led to foggy morning recently, but won’t be inducing thunderstorms this afternoon.
Instead, an upper level low over the southwestern US will move into the center of the country, all while generating a stouter southerly flow. The difference in arimass isn’t as great as in the summer, so widespread thunderstorms aren’t likely until the afternoon on Sunday. Ahead of that time, expect fog becoming increasingly dense in the mornings, with temperatures and humidity climbing through the period.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, then warm, High 85, Low 62
Sunday – Foggy in the morning with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. Warm. High 85, Low 61
Sunday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm. High 85, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 84, low 62
Sunday – Some sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; very warm and humid High 86, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 62
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 85, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 62
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 85, Low 67

Weatherbug is going with a 10% lower chance for thunderstorms. Other than that, same thing going on there. We can see the huge system in the west on the satellite image.

Unexplained phenomenon

The temperatures in Redding were wildly different than the common consensus. The high on Tuesday peaked at 90, but the high on Wednesday was 76. The enormously warm temperature is easily explained by the 10mph north wind, which induced some solid downsloping. Why was it so cool on Wednesday though? I have no freaking clue. Anthony’s forecast was the best of the bunch, but that really doesn’t say much, unfortunately.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 46
Wednesday – High 76, Low 48

Grade D

A chill to the air

The air has a distinct autumnal feel in eastern Wisconsin at long last. It took until mid-October for the typically fall-like temperatures to return, but they finally did in Green Bay, just in time for our forecast. Clearer than expected skies (for some, anyways) meant temperatures were free to dip to the 30s each of the last two mornings in Green Bay. With the slight chance for some drizzle in the area, many kept temperatures warmer Monday morning, expecting some blanketing clouds. Didn’t happen, obviously, and Victoria-Weather ended up nabbing the top forecast spot.
Actuals: Monday – High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – High 59, Low 35

Grade: B

Introducing Off The Grid!

We often focus on major (or notable) cities here at Victoria Weather, in order to capture a wide variety of spectators. But what about those areas that are less notable, hidden from the eyes of many or otherwise off the grid. We will be trying something new here in The Weather Blog. Occasionally we will look off the beaten path to reach areas of the backwoods, National Parks and other popular (even unpopular) domestic and international destinations, where forecasts are often either hard to come by or nonexistent.

Weather forecasts Off The Grid (OTG) are typically doomed due to the lack of observational data and thus poor model data. This is often the case within mountainous or wilderness areas, where terrain features change drastically over small horizontal distances and observational data (weather stations) can be over 150 miles apart. With that being said, detailed forecasts, while often flawed due to the aforementioned conditions, are possible in areas Off The Grid with an understanding of how terrain and other geographical features affect the weather.

In our first edition of OTG we will travel to one of America’s most iconic National Parks; Yellowstone. Established in 1872 as Americas first National Park, it is home to the world’s largest geyser (Steamboat Geyser; hurling a boiling column of water over 30 stories tall) and the world’s largest volcanic caldera (Yellowstone Supervolcano, which measures about 34 miles by 45 miles).

Grand Prismatic Spring, Yellowstone National Park

For this forecast we will focus on Yellowstone Lake, which sits at the center of the park at 7,732ft above sea level.Clear skies will be the name of the game over the next few days, as weak high pressure remains in place through Thursday. High pressure begins to retreat on Friday as a system pushes into the Pacific Northwest. This may cause a few high clouds to stream over the lake on Saturday; otherwise, dry conditions will be expected for much of Saturday as well. Light showers look to filter into the park Saturday evening as the system over the Pacific Northwest drifts into the Great Basin. By Sunday morning showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected to envelop the lake and continue intermittently throughout the day.

Wednesday: Sunny. High 54, Low 23 .
Thursday: Sunny. High 56, Low 24.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High 55, Low 21.
Thursday: Sunny. High 56, Low 22.

AW: Wednesday: Sunny. High 60, Low 16.
Thursday: Sunny. High 57, Low 17.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 57, Low 28.
Thursday: Sunny. High 58, Low 25.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 26.
Thursday: Sunny. High 54, Low 24.

OTG Rating (1-10): >>4<< While sitting miles from any major city, Yellowstone Lake’s northern and western fringes can be accessed via highway from any direction. With nearly 3,000,000 visitors a year, it can feel like city grid lock on the weekends.

Sunshine State Fulfills

Normally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are the daily norm for Florida, being nearly surrounded by water and all. However, lovely weather prevailed over Punta Gorda as the work week started, with nary a drop to be had. Victoria Weather took home the top forecast.

Sunday: High 84, Low 55.
Monday: High 82, low 59.
Forecast grade: B

Redding, California

Behold, as once again I do a forecast for a California town! However, this one is not along the coast or in Southern CA, so a bit of a treat! Will the weather be a treat as well, or will it trick us with some midweek gloom?

At 6:53pm PDT, the temperature at Redding, CA was 78 degrees under fair skies. High pressure has taken hold over Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies, with the southern extend of the high holding firm over Northern CA. Redding is found at the very northern edge of CA’s Central Valley before you get into the more mountainous terrain of far northern CA, so warm temperatures are still commonplace later in the fall season. An upper level low has been camping out over Southern CA making it rainy for LA and San Diego, but is far enough south that only some weak cloud layers have managed to venture over Redding the last couple of days. With high pressure continuing to deflect any systems up into Canada, Redding should continue their streak of pleasant weather into midweek.

Tuesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 52.
Wednesday: More sun. High 81, Low 49.

TWC: Tuesday: Sunny. High 88, Low 55.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 53.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 46.
Wednesday: More sun, morning low breaking 1996 record of 40. High 80, Low 39.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 86, Low 55.
Wednesday: Continued sunny. High 82, Low 56.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 50.

There’s going out on a limb, and going WAY out on a limb, as Accuweather is forecasting a Wednesday morning low 10-15 colder than everybody else and breaking the record. Well, no guts no glory right? Here we see the relatively benign conditions over northern CA.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

We’re off to the land of cheese, where the Packers just allowed a Dolphins touchdown. Uh oh, Green Bay!

At 153PM, CT, Green Bay was reporting a pleasant temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies and a westerly breeze. The air was very dry in eastern Wisconsin, as an area of high pressure was bulding behind a weak, dry cold front that was making a hard charge into New England.
A weak upper wave was being reflected more strongly in the mid levels, which was leading to some light showers and a lot of clouds for the upper Midwest and high plains. Those clouds will filter into Wisconsin over the next few hours. A cut off area of low pressure will stay out west, and a weak directional trough associated with a Canadian jet will swing south of Green Bay with little consequence The stronger northerly jet will begin to ridge and strengthen, with the weak troughing moving to the east. This is a complicated way of saying that there may be some clouds tomorrow morning, with clearing weather expected on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine. High 59, Low 40
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 61, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and limited sun High 56, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 56, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 55, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

Looks like pleasant autumnal weather for Green Bay. A look at the satellite shows all those clouds moving into the Upper Midwest.

And then the bottom dropped out

Showery conditions were the norm for Benton Harbor to end the week, with Friday being the rainier of the two days. The real surprise was the strength of a cold front that swept through on Wednesday, and more specifically what it did to overnight lows. Temperatures dropped to the 30s for lows in each of those days, considerably cooler than anyone had anticipated. V-W and Accuweather had the top spot for the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 63, Low 37
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: D