Category Archives: Forecast

Trouble in Paradise

We have had quite the Hawaiian adventure lately, first with a our flight from Alabama to Hawaii, then the forecast on Tuesday for Honolulu that Anthony drafted. He “rolled the dice” and said Honolulu would stay dry on Wednesday, however a boundary lingering over the islands had other plans, and over a quarter inch of rain fell in Honolulu, with a lingering trace on Thursday. Tough time to take a honeymoon, now? As you can imagine, temperature forecasts were all really well done, but the top forecast went to Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – .28 inches of rain, High 82, Low 71
Thursday – Trace of rain, High 83, Low 72

Grade: A

Columbus, Indiana

Our trip today is taking us to the fine state of Indiana, home state of my alma mater.

At 350PM, ET, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with overcast conditions. The country is in a very chilly pattern which will make things very prone to snow, with the slightest disturbance expected to be able to generate some flurries. A slight perturbation in the jet is going to do just that starting tomorrow over the upper Midwest, despite an overall ridge dominating the country.
The coupling of a pair of jets is the only upper level indication of the system, but some lower level troughing will be tied into a stout surface low over eastern Canada by the time the disturbance drifts towards the Ohio Valley. While a focused stripe is expected further to the northwest when the forcing is almost exclusively influenced by upper air dynamics, the area of snow will become more dispersed as it arrives in Indiana, and moisture will be more diffuse. Total snow in Columbus, which will arrive Saturday will be in the neighborhood of 1-3″, with 3″ being on the very high end of projections.
Tomorrow – Increasingly cloudy late, High 36, Low 22
Saturday – Wet sow, measuring 1-3″, High 34, Low 25

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 30, Low 23
Saturday – Snow showers possible. High 34, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cold High 38, Low 23
Saturday – Cold with wet snow, accumulating 1-3 inches High 37, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Snow likely High 34, Low 26

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (snow late) High 38, Low 25
Saturday – Snow likely, light accumulations, High 33, Low 29

Some flurries seem to be showing up on the Indianapolis radar, probably more to do with with Lake Michigan than anything else

Honolulu, Hawaii

As I look out my window and see some light snow falling, it makes me wish even more I was at where I am forecasting for. Thankfully, today it’s Hawaii and not the Yukon.

At 8:53am HST (Hawaii Standard Time, 4 hours behind us in the Central time zone), the temperature at Honolulu was 79 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Being located in the tropics, normally Honolulu doesn’t have to worry about many synoptic systems sweeping through the region, like our cold fronts and inverted troughs and explosive low pressure systems. However, the tail end of a stationary front found a little bit to the north of the islands is enhancing some shower activity, although most of that should stay off to the north. A weak disturbance east of the Hawaiian Islands has been very slowly trekking westward and could bring some showers to the area in the next couple of days. Thursday will be a better chance of this activity making it to Honolulu, as some of the lighter stuff on Wednesday might not make it over the mountains that make up the island chain to affect the capital. Most sites are giving a chance of showers on both days, but I’m rolling the dice and saying the first day of the new month will stay dry. Will VicWx prevail? Stay tuned!

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. High 82, Low 71.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a few showers possible. High 82, Low 73.

TWC: Wednesday: Scattered showers. High 83, Low 72.
Thursday: Better chance of scattered showers. High 82, Low 73.

AW: Wednesday: Scatted shower possible. High 81, Low 71.
Thursday: Breezy with a few scattered showers. High 82, Low 72.

NWS: Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 80, Low 71.
Thursday: Widespread showers likely. High 80, Low 72.

WB: Wednesday: Rain expected. High 82. Low 63.
Thursday: Widespread rain showers expected, heavy rains at times possible. High 82. Low 63.

Weatherbug is going significantly colder than everybody else on their lows, and the lowest they’ve gotten in the last 72hrs is 69 degrees. Do they know something we don’t? Time will tell I suppose. Here we see some high clouds to the west.

Ann Arbor gets lucky

I know some people like the snow, and some people don’t. I know that most people can agree that when temperatures get really cold, it’s pretty unbearable. Clouds wrapping around an area of low pressure in northern Michigan acted as a blanket overnight that kept Ann Arbor from getting terribly cold. The pleasantly, uh, not freezing temepratures ended up giving The Weather Channel the top spot. Weatherbug almost got it, but forecast two days of snow, when they didn’t see any. (I feel proud of myself for getting through this post without any potshots at the Michigan Wolverines.)
Actuals: Friday – High 30, Low 24
Saturday – High 36, Low 30

Grade: C

Winter arrives just after midnight

If you are a big fan of celebrating Christmas as soon as Thanksgiving is over, then Battle Creek was for you. After a rainy Thanksgiving, it dried up in time for midnight before a few flurries fell in Battle Creek, just in time for all those early morning sales. It was tightly bunched atop the forecast leaderboard, with the Weather Service taking the top spot.
Actuals: Thursday – .36 inches of rain, High 42, Low 28
Friday – Snow reported but not measured, High 32, Low 23

Grade: A

Editors are overrated

We had a comment from reader Jon when the forecast for Manchester was posted. I had accidentally typed a 65 for Accuweather’s forecast high instead of a 45. Well, since I went in and fixed their forecast, they ended up tied atop the leaderboard. I would be upset if they hadn’t tied with us. Showers didn’t start moving into the area until after midnight, which knocked us all down a peg, and since the warm front didn’t get into town, it stayed cooler than expected.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 46, Low 30
Thursday – High 39, Low 27

Grade: C

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Whew, finally made it to the forecast for Ann Arbor. Hopefully you have all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Mine sucked. I hope yours was better.

At 1114AM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 32 degrees with cloudy but clearing skies. Most of the Detroit metro area was still seeing flurry activity, but it appeared that Ann Arbor was in the clear for the remainder of the evening.
Low pressure will continue to rotate in western Ontario north of Michigan, lending to some partly to mostly cloudy skies, which will prevent temperatures from getting extremely frigid. Snow flurry activity will be persistend over northern Michigan, but Ann Arbor should be dry.

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 22
Saturday – Partly to mostly cloudy, High 34, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy. A few snow flurries in the morning with a few snow showers developing late. High 33, Low 25
Saturday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 37, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Very windy; mostly cloudy and colder with snow flurries High 36, Low 19
Saturday – Partly sunny, breezy and chilly High 32, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of flurries before 10am, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy High 32, Low 18
Saturday – A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy High 35, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and brisk, a chance of flurries through 10AM then a chance of light snow showers, High 31, Low 24
Saturday – Mostly cloudy during the morning, partly sunny during the afternoon, a chance of flurries, High 34, Low 23

Well, at least the days are standard day. Thank God for small favors. A look at the radar shows flurries pushing out of the state.

Battle Creek, Michigan

So, tomorrow is Thanksgiving, which obviously means there will be a convoluted posting schedule tomorrow. I’ll figure it out, but I will be posting some forecasts, because THE WEATHER NEVER STOPS. And on to the place we had to mail in to win all those cereal box prizes.

At 1153AM, ET, Battle Creek was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with clear skies. A developing, extremely troublesome system over the mid-Mississippi Valley extended a very active warm front across the Ohio Valley, and rain and mostly freezing rain was fallling across Indianapolis, and though no reports were filtering in yet north of there, clouds and verga were being detected on radar.
Fortunately, the sunny skies being seen in Battle Creek may be just enough to push temperatures above freezing this afternoon, and if precip begins falling it will be as rain. The warm front will stall over central Indiana overnight, so the bulk of the wet weather will remain to the south, over Indiana, however an occluded front or inverted trough will arrive overnight tonight, and bring about a rather heavy dose of rain. Fortunately, for most of the day on Thanksgiving, all precipitation will be rain, as temperatures aloft will be quite warm, and they will be just above freezing at the surface. Expect a change to snow to wait until Friday morning, when any lingering moisture will fall to the earth as snow. With all the rain expected tomorrow, be prepared for any moisture on roadways to freeze and make conditions slick.
Tomorrow – Cold rain likely, mixing with some slushy snow late, High 46, Low 30
Friday – Scattered snow showers, High 30, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain showers High 40, Low 32
Friday – Windy with snow. High 33, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Rain and drizzle High 41, Low 26
Friday – Mostly cloudy with snow showers, accumulating a coating to an inch; windy and colder High 31, Low 19

NWS: Tomorrow – Occasional rain (snow late High 43, Low 32
Friday – Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy High 32, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Occasional rain until midday, then rain and snow in the afternoon. High 43, Low 32
Friday – Numerous snow showers, High 33, Low 23

All of those lows tomorrow are non standard, as are some of the highs (including mine) on Friday. My predicition is for an accumulation of up to 2 inches. Lots of moisture, but a lot of rain mixed in. We shall see. A look at the radar shows the nasty mix filtering from the south.

Manchester, New Hampshire

The rarely seen in nature New Hampshire forecast that doesn’t involve infamous Mount Washington. Will getting to grandmother’s house be a problem in New England?

At 753PM, ET, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Southern New Hampshire found itself very near the occlusion point of a system traveling through New England. The shower activity was already out to sea, but the cold front lagged into Vermont and New York, while the warm front was causing fog just miles north in New Hampshire. The system was wrapped well enough that it has also generated a secondary boundary sweeping through southern Canada.
This tightly wound system will introduce some gusty winds within the next few hours, and they will turn to northerly and start bringing temperatures down. These blustery, chilly winds will continue through most of the day, with a cooler high pressure dominating most of the night Wednesday and on Thanksgiving. Expect a system to develop over the Northern Plains on Wednesday and shift east towards New England by the end of the day Thanksgiving. What will make for a mess for much of the Ohio Valley for Thanksgiving will wait until everyone is sleeping off their turkey in Manchester.
Tomorrow – Blustery and cooler, High 45, Low 31
Thanksgiving – Clear, with some light flurries or even freezing rain very late in the evening, High 44, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with a few clouds from time to time High 39, Low 30
Thanksgiving – A few clouds High 44, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, windy and cooler High 45, Low 29
Thanksgiving – Sun giving way to increasing clouds (PM rain) High 45, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny High 40, Low 29
Thanksgiving – Increasing clouds, (Late rain/snow/sleet) High 44, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and blustery, High 41, Low 29
Thanksgiving – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny, High 43, Low 22

I should note that for all forecasters, Wednesday is a non-standard day, with the low coming at midnight as northerly flow persists. Heck, it’s in the 50s there. You can see the complicated cloud pattern aloft with the occluded system moving through, and another developing system in the Rockies.

High 75, Low 51

That’s pretty much all you need to know from Charleston. Partly cloudy skies, with no change from Sunday to Monday, except people had to go to work on Monday. There was some early morning fog, but that was essentially the only weather they saw in Charleston. Accuweather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 51
Monday – High 75, Low 51

Grade A