Category Archives: Forecast

Tobacco Road Success

Ryan’s forecast for Greensboro had low temperatures a good few degrees warmer than most everybody else. Turns out, that’s what propelled him to a victory for his weekend forecast! Can Duke duplicate this success in tomorrow’s title game vs. Butler? If he could forecast that as accurately as his Greensboro temperatures, Ryan would be vacationing in Vegas right now instead of the West Coast.

Friday: High 87, Low 51.
Saturday: High 80, Low 56.

Forecast Grade: B

Rome, Georgia

Ryan is off gallivanting around Southern California, earthquakes and all, so naturally, we get to forecast for somewhere completely on the opposite side of the country.

At 9:53PM EDT, the temperature was 66 degrees at Rome, GA under fair skies. Much like the last forecast I did, I would explain the intricacies of the weather pattern, chances of precip, harrowing weather conditions that are imminent, and so on. Sadly, much like my last forecast, this forecast is lacking any of that. While there is a frontal boundary found from the Ohio Valley down into the Southern Plains, this boundary will break up as it approaches the Appalachians. High pressure currently parked from the Carolinas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is dominating the region, and doesn’t show any signs of letting up over the next couple of days. Not until a rather vigorous cold front moves into the region on Thursday morning will Rome see a chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the meantime, warm temperatures and sunny skies will greet the start of the workweek.

Monday: Sunny, a few clouds. High 86, Low 56.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 87, Low 53.

NWS: Monday: Sunny. High 85. Low 55.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 57.

AW: Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. High 86, Low 54.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 88, Low 52.

WB: Monday: Sunny. High 86, Low 55.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 85, Low 54.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 87, Low 55.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 87, Low 55.

As mentioned before, not much to see over the Southeast today. Maybe those storms on Thursday will make things more interesting!

Altoona, Pennsylvania

We’re off to the Appalachians of central Pennsylvania for today’s forecast. Perhaps they will be able to see a couple of nice days after a snowy winter.

At 1253PM, ET, Altoona was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. The primary system is a slow moving but energetic system along the Missouri River. It is inducing the southerly flow over the eastern third of the country that has contributed to the warm temperatures across central Pennsylvania today.
A massive Atlantic Ridge will help cause a broad trough over the center of the country swing north into Canada, and will kill any moisture before it reaches the Altoona area. Expect an increase in clouds tomorrow, but temperatures well above average.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 75, Low 54
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, cooler, High 65, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Near record high temperatures. High 76, Low 52
Sunday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 68, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and warm with the temperature tying the record from 1963 High 80, Low 50
Sunday – Partly sunny High 70, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (late PM drizzle) High 78, Low 49
Sunday – Partly sunny (Early AM drizzle), High 71, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Continued unseasonably warm High 78, Low 49
Sunday – Partly sunny. High 66, Low 52

Record warmth! That’s nice. Here is the satellite.

Where was the warm air?

Denver can be a difficult place to forecast for, as they were over the past couple of days. Things were about 10 degrees cooler than expected on Wednesday, and then didn’t drop much (1 degree) on Thursday. They avoided any and all precipitation, which made this all and all a very poor forecast. Actually, I’ll BE in Denver in about 6 hours with a layover! Hopefully the forecasts are better today.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 63, Low 41
Thursday – High 62, Low 35

Grade: D

Greensboro, North Carolina

Our day takes us to North Carolina, right back to that ridge of high pressure that has been so kind to us the past couple of days.

At 1254PM, ET, Greensboro was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. Dry conditions in addition to the clear skies indicate a continued rise in temperatures this afternoon, perhaps into the mid-80s.
For the first time in months, a large scale upper level ridge has established itself over the eastern US. The ridge will gradually break down as a strong trough will move into the central US. Expect an increase in clouds, however as the cold front approaches the Appalachians, rain and thunder will be delayed until Sunday for Greensboro.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 52
Saturday – Sunny, with clouds increasing late, High 79, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. Very warm. High 86, Low 46
Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. High 82, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 49
Saturday – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 50
Saturday – Sunny High 83, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 85, Low 48
Saturday -Sunny High 83, Low 52

A look at the satellite shows a stark connrast between “things going on” and “things not going on”

Springtime Warm Up

Elizabethtown was in line for a warm up as an area of high pressure established itself over the southeast. They got it, as temperatures climbed from the mid-60s to the upper 70s on Wednesday. One fly in the ointment was the temperatures Tuesday morning, which dipped all the way to 33, thanks to the clear skies over night. The Weather Service had the top forecast for the city.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 33
Wednesday -High 77, Low 43

Grade: A

Gainesville, Florida

From coast to coast my forecasts take me this week. Strangely enough, the weather is just as monotonous.

At 1:53pm EDT, the temperature in Gainesville is 76 degrees under fair skies. Normally we have a in-depth writeup about what weather features are affecting the area, if they are going to bring in precip, or huge differences in predictions between our competitors. Today, there’s none of that. A large dome of high pressure has parked itself over the Southeast US and will spread over the East Coast over the next couple of days, pushing that pesky area of low pressure over New England out to sea finally. What does this mean for Gainesville and it’s hoardes of sun-loving college students? Sunny skies and warm temperatures. Bust out the sunscreen!

Thursday: Sunny. High 83, Low 46.
Friday: Continued sunny. High 83, Low 49.

TWC: Thursday: Sunny. High 84, Low 47.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 51.

AW: Thursday: Sunny and nice. High 82, Low 44.
Friday: Sunny and pleasant. High 82, Low 51.

NWS: Thursday: Clear. High 82, Low 44.
Friday: Continued clear. High 82, Low 48.

WB: Thursday: Sunny. High 82, Low 44.
Friday: Sunny. High 83, Low 48.

As you can see, not much going on out there. Enjoy!

Denver, Colorado

Denver is one of the more difficult major metropolitan areas to forecast for, what with their widely variable temperatures and the potential for a half a foot of snow in late March. We’ll see how it goes this time.

At 953AM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a degree of lee side troughing, however the real story was a broad, strong upper level trough digging into the west that would create it’s own weather news for the next couple of days.
A stout ridge in the east will prevent the system from shifting east, though with the low pressure aided by the Rockies in the lee side of the Rockies, a more effective southerly flow will develop over the coming days in eastern Colorado. Expect a continued warm up for Denver and an increase in the clouds tomorrow, with snow lurking in the mountains west of town by Thursday, with the clouds stamping out any warm weather in Denver.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and windy, High 73, Low 44
Thursday – Overcast and cooler, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. High 55, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a warm breeze High 70, Low 43
Thursday – Breezy and cooler with times of sun and clouds (PM Rain) High 54, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 46
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers after noon, chance of snow before midnight. Partly cloudy High 60, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 70, Low 46
Thursday –
Partly sunny. A 10 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 60, Low 40

I am completely dumbfounded by the Weather Channel. I triple checked to make sure that was actually their forecast, notably the low temperatures. Anyways, here is a look at the western US from space. Pretty good system over the northwest, and it doesn’t want to move!

Elizabethtown, Kentucky

Sorry, there will be no in-depth analysis featuring Orlando Bloom and Kirsten Dunst here. However, the weather for the next couple of days will be just as beautiful as fans of those stars think they are!

At 12:56pm EDT, the temperature at Elizabethtown, KY was 45 degrees under overcast skies. A large storm system is pummeling the East Coast from NC northward through New England, dropping copious amounts of rain. The main low is found just offshore of the Carolinas, with a bit of a low pressure trough extending northwestward into the Southern Appalachians. This is keeping some cloudy skies over the eastern half of Kentucky, but will burn off during the afternoon as the main cloud deck also pulls off towards the east. As the low shifts up the East Coast, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Ohio Valley, clearing out the skies and bringing warm weather surging back into the region on Wednesday, with winds a bit higher as well in the afternoon. This ridge will expand over the Eastern U.S., keeping Elizabethtown dry not only over the next couple days, but through much of the rest of the week as well.

VW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38.
Wednesday: Clear and warmer. High 75, Low 45.

TWC: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 74, Low 42.

AW: Tuesday: Partly cloudy, becoming sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 78, Low 44.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 36.
Wednesday: Continued sunny. High 77, Low 44.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 64, Low 37.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 77, Low 47.

While it’s overcast now, it should become sunny later today, which will stick around for the next few days. Except, of course, at night. Otherwise that’d just be weird.

A 23-hour day?

Our competition all had a chance of showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night for Naples, we figured that they would hold off to the east. If our days lasted 23 hours, we would have stormed (no pun intended) to victory! Sadly, a rogue thunderstorm decided to move into the area after 11pm on Sunday, dropping a quick 4/10ths of an inch before midnight. Curses! AW wound up taking the top spot, with no added embellishment from Joe Bastardi.

Saturday: High 81, Low 55
Sunday: 0.42″ of rain in a thunderstorm. High 81, Low 66

Forecast grade: B