Category Archives: Forecast

Green Bay, Wisconsin

We’re off to the land of cheese, where the Packers just allowed a Dolphins touchdown. Uh oh, Green Bay!

At 153PM, CT, Green Bay was reporting a pleasant temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies and a westerly breeze. The air was very dry in eastern Wisconsin, as an area of high pressure was bulding behind a weak, dry cold front that was making a hard charge into New England.
A weak upper wave was being reflected more strongly in the mid levels, which was leading to some light showers and a lot of clouds for the upper Midwest and high plains. Those clouds will filter into Wisconsin over the next few hours. A cut off area of low pressure will stay out west, and a weak directional trough associated with a Canadian jet will swing south of Green Bay with little consequence The stronger northerly jet will begin to ridge and strengthen, with the weak troughing moving to the east. This is a complicated way of saying that there may be some clouds tomorrow morning, with clearing weather expected on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine. High 59, Low 40
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 61, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and limited sun High 56, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 56, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 55, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

Looks like pleasant autumnal weather for Green Bay. A look at the satellite shows all those clouds moving into the Upper Midwest.

And then the bottom dropped out

Showery conditions were the norm for Benton Harbor to end the week, with Friday being the rainier of the two days. The real surprise was the strength of a cold front that swept through on Wednesday, and more specifically what it did to overnight lows. Temperatures dropped to the 30s for lows in each of those days, considerably cooler than anyone had anticipated. V-W and Accuweather had the top spot for the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 63, Low 37
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: D

Punta Gorda, Florida

We’re spending our Friday in south Florida today, along the Gulf Coast in beautiful Punta Gorda (English: Fat point)

At 1253PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. Florida was behind a cold front that was attached to a Nor’easter sliding up the coast of New England. This boundary has also served to hook up with Hurricane Paula and take her away from Florida, leaving the peninsula rather pleasant.
High pressure and subsident air will continue to dominate Florida for the next couple of days. Gulf temperatures are warm enough and surface temperatures have cooled enough that the seabreeze has cut off. Clear air will be in charge for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny, High 84, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 54
Sunday – Sunshine. High 86, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny High 84, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny and pleasant High 85, low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloud High 85, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, becoming mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 84, Low 60

The Weather Service forecast was broken, so I had to infer some temperatures. Anyways, here is the satellite, showing the offshore system very well.

I guess it was a cold front

A weak little boundary was supposed to sweep through Tuscaloosa on Tuesday, with the city recovering on Wednesday with temperatures climbing back into the 80s. Well, that’s what we mostly thought was going to happen. As it turned out, the little boundary brought some cooler air along with it. The jet aloft strengthened considerably compared to the expectation which fostered the cooler advection, and the high on Wednesday was 6-8 degrees cooler than expected, depending on who you asked. The top spot went to Victoria Weather and the Weather Service, who lost points for forecasting more showers on Wednesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain, High 80, Low 57
Wednesday – High 76, Low 57.

Grade: C

Benton Harbor, Michigan

For the first time since September, the forecast is for a site where something is actually going on!

At 1229pm, ET, Benton Harbor was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with light rain. A cold front had just passed through town, with wind reorienting to become northerly. The leading edge of the heavy rain lay from Lansing to Michigan City, Indiana, so the the steady march of the boundary suggested that the backfill currently in Benton Harbor will be short lived, and the town would clear out nicely this afternoon, though there was a batch of heavier rain over southern Lake Michigan to contend with first.
The upper level trough associated with the system is strong and is digging deeply into the east. This means that the system, after it departs from southern Michigan, will develop intensely and rapidly as the supporting trough aloft strengthens. A ripple at the back edge of the jet will mean some instability across Michigan, and showers will stream through the Lower Peninsula on Friday. In the meantime, expect a more seasonable feel to the air.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, with showers late, High 62, Low 44
Friday – Chance of showers, mostly east of town, High 58, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds (late PM rain). High 63, Low 45
Friday – Morning showers High 58, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 45
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a passing shower; breezy High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, High 62, Low 49
Friday – Partly sunny, High 61, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy a 30 percent chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 47
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 43.

Once again, the Weather Service and Weatherbug are straying from the common consensus. We’ll see how that works out for them. Here is the radar, showing things sliding out of town. (The radar image is from about an hour later than was described in the forecast. Technical flaws and all).

I’ll never understand the mountains

Bend and Redmond Oregon are 17 miles apart. Had the forecast been for Redmond, it would have been a dogfight between ourselves, The Weather Channel and Acuweather. For whatever reason, it was 10 degrees warmer in Bend, and that handed the award to Weatherbug, who nabbed the top spot easily.
Actuals: Monday – High 57, Low 37
Tuesday – High 66, Low 32

Grade: B

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Home of the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa is perhaps downtrodden after they lost to South Carolina, the first lost for the Crimson Tide in 18 games. Perhaps the weather will be better.

At 1153AM, CT, Tuscaloosa was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with sunny skies. Like much of the country, a persistent area of high pressure was leading to some near record warmth across the state of Alabama, and with a return flow setting up over the Gulf, humidity will begin to crawl back up into uncomfortable territories as well.
A weak area of low pressure that has taken a south-north path through the Plains will now make an easterly turn from Kansas and Oklahoma. Interacting with the rising humidity in Alabama, expect a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow, however the wave is expected to be short enough that the system will pass quickly through town, and the pendant front will follow the jet, which is well south of the coast, meaning any lingering threat for wet weather will remain over the Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms possible early, High 81, Low 59
Wednesday – Clearing and sunny, High 83, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 84, Low 56
Wednesday – Mainly sunny High 83, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 60
Wednesday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm High 82, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 58
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny High 83, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 84, Low 56

It appears some of the forecasters aren’t as optimistic about clearing skies.

Bend, Oregon

Forecasting in Oregon tonight, but the interior part of the state, which is unlike the Pacific Northwest you are used to, I assure you.

At 915PM, PT, Bend was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with overcast conditions. A sliver of clouds trailing a boundary in the Pacific Northwest was just clipping the Bend area. The system is going to be ushered out of the area quickly by a building ridge over the Northwest.
A fairly strong jet is going to arc north into British Columbia for the coming days, allowing for some warming, sunny skies for Bend, meaning the next couple of days will be rather enjoyable.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 31
Tuesday – Sun continues, High 69, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 58, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 30
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 68, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 59, Low 34
Tuesday – Sunny High 67, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, cooler, with patchy fog in the morning, High 58, Low 37
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 35

The Weather Service and Weatherbug going astray from the cool overnight forecasts.

Chilly mornings

I brought the temperature up a little bit in York for the Friday morning forecast, because that seemed to be what the rest of the world opined. Oops. Temperatures instead rattled down to below 40 on Friday morning, much cooler than anyone thought. On the heels of their topping us all in September, Accuweather took the top spot in York.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 39
Saturday – High 77, Low 46

Grade B

York, Pennsylvania

Ah, finally, we’re off to the northeast where there has been some weather going on! What, the system is gone? Oh…

At 253PM, ET, York was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 69 degrees. A area of low pressure was finally being forced out of New England ad into the the Maritimes of eastern Canada. Afront that has become more of an inverted trough is angling through the center of Pennsylvania, promising even cooler, drier air.
The high pressure that has been so dominant in the center of the country will finally find it’s way into the northeast and mid-Atlantic, bringing with it sunny skies for the duration of the week, as well as the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 42
Saturday – Still sunny, High 72, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 76, Low 45
Saturday – Sunshine, High 78, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow- Bright sunshine and nice High 73, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny and pleasantly warm High 77, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 72, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny, High 72, Low 46

For a pair of sunny days, the temperature trends are all over the map. I am expecting some northwesterly flow to cool things off a bit on Saturday.