Category Archives: Forecast

In their own backyard

As mentioned at no end, Atlanta is the home of the Weather Channel. One may expect them to take care of the forecast, especially with the way they have been forecasting lately, but NO. No. It was us, Victoria-Weather who absolutely dominated in the ATL.
Actuals: Monday – High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – .03 inches of rain, High 91, Low 73

Grade: A

Saint Louis, Missouri

I believe that this is the first time my forecast parade has taken me to St. Louis, the Gateway to the West. One of my favorite cities out there.

At 251PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and dew points in the mid 70s. A line of thunderstorms has erupted southeast of the city but north of Cape Girardeau, indicative of the weak troughing that has been rippling through the Mid-Mississippi Valley for the past several days. A mostly stalled boundary was running through northern Missouri and Kansas, triggering another line of thunderstorms for that area. The Storm Prediction Center was indicating a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for the area.
The jet runs west to east just north of St. Louis, so not much change is expected over the next 36 hours or so. Some training lines of thunderstorms should be expected across most of Missouri until a ripple appears along the jet. At the tail end of the jet, there is a weak perturbation that will evolve for the next several days. An area of low pressure will develop over the Dakotas and start lifting a warm front north away from St. Louis. Expect things to eventually quite down then on Thursday with temperatures climbing to the 90s.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 77
Thursday – Morning showers and storms, then hot, High 97, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 78
Thursday – Times of sun and clouds (AM Storms). High 95, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, hot and humid with a shower or thunderstorm around; thunderstorms can be severe High 92, Low 79
Thursday – Hot and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 97, Low 79

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 91, Low 75
Thursday – Partly cloudy (AM Thunderstorms) High 95, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Hot and humid. Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 93, Low 78
Thursday – Hot and humid. Partly cloudy (AM Thunderstorms) High 96, Low 77

Looks to be hot and muggy in Saint Louis. Just another summer day. You can see the storms off to the southeast of town pretty well on satellite.

The Monroe Doctrine

Sure, you can forecast all the dry air that you want in the southern US this time of year, but eventually, there will be scattered thunderstorms and one of them is bound to clip whatever town you are forecasting for. This was true in Monroe and our forecast from Saturday, where everyone said the chance for thunderstorms was low, but still slipped them in the forecast, because we all know better. In fact, a quarter inch of rain fell just before noon yesterday validating the mutually held concerns. The Weather Channel had the best forecast (again) thanks to their temperature forecast.

Actuals: Sunday – High 96, Low 76
Monday – .25inches of rain, High 92, Low 76

Grade: A

A diamond in the rough

When forecasting for Wausau, there was one clear superior force in an otherwise mediocre forecast, and that was The Weather Channel, who nailed the top forecast thanks in large part to one thing: Sunday’s high. Things never warmed up yesterday in northern Wisconsin, as widespread clouds and drizzle dominated the region in the wake of some early morning thunderstorms. Everyone across the Midwest was anticipating temperatures that lingered more in the low to mid 80 range when they couldn’t even climb past 78. Well done, TWC.
Saturday: .02 inches of rain, High 85, Low 64
Sunday: .18 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A

Absent showers

The cold front moved a tad slower through the Northeast than expected, with the scattered showers and thunderstorms managing to miss the New London area. Temperatures inched upwards slightly on Saturday and remained dry. TWC and WB tied for the win with their warmer and dry Saturday forecast.

Friday: High 85, Low 69.
Saturday: High 88, Low 73.

Forecast grade: B

Atlanta, Georgia

Off to the home of The Weather Channel! How will can they forecast for their own backyard? Pride is at stake here!!!

At 9:53pm EDT, the temperature was 78 degrees under partly cloudy skies in Atlanta. Over the last few days, a zonal flow has set up over the Northern U.S., meaning the jet stream pretty much flows due straight west to east. A large upper-level ridge has parked itself over the Southwest US and has been staying put for the last few days, as been indicative by the absolutely sweltering conditions the Desert Southwest has been undertaking (90 for a LOW in Las Vegas?!). Anyways, with the jet stream staying well north, no significant surface systems really are able to make it that far south to bring any new air masses into the region. Also, with the Bermuda high firmly entrenched over the Atlantic and ridging into the Southeast, a steady flow of moisture continues to sit over the region. So, with the status quo expected to continue through the next couple of days, looks like we have some more scattered storms expected to affect the area.

Monday: Few scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 72.
Tuesday: More scattered thunderstorms. High 92, Low 73.

WB: Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 73.
Tuesday: Slightly more isolated thunderstorm activity. High 93, Low 72.

TWC: Monday: Showers and thunderstorms expected. High 90, Low 71.
Tuesday: Fewer storms, bit more sun. High 90, Low 72.

NWS: Monday: Isolated thunderstorms. High 91, Low 73.
Tuesday: More thunderstorm activity. High 93, Low 72.

AW: Monday: Widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. High 90, Low 72.
Tuesday: Slightly less thunderstorm activity. High 90, Low 74.

We see a few thunderstorms rolling north over the OH Valley. Will Atlanta see some of this same action over the next couple of days?

Monroe, Louisiana

We’re headed to the stormy southern US for our forecast on this Saturday afternoon.

At 1153AM, CT, Monroe was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 82 degrees. Day time convection has quite obviously already begun in Monroe and across northern Louisiana, where thunderstorm activity was seen from Shreveport to Vicksburg, Mississippi and as far south as Alexandria. Storms had been quite heavy when they clip a town head on, as they were doing in Shreveport, though storms were exiting Monroe for the time being.
The lingering wind shift boundary lay in the midlevels just north of Monroe, providing a focal point for convection in northern Louisiana today. A weak tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico will draw a good deal of moisture towards it over the next couple of days, and the focus for heavier rains will shift to the southern half of the state. It would be foolish to leave out precipitation chances in the south this time of year, however for the next couple of days, the threat will be greatly reduced for thunderstorms in Monroe.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with a low chance for some showers and storms, High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mostly sunny again, with showers and storms primarily south of town, High 93, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 94, Low 76
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 92, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 96, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 93, Low 75
Monday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 75

See? Lower than usual chances for storms in Monroe, and everyone is going about 30% down there. Here is the active radar. Looks like a healthy storm in Shreveport.

Wausau, Wisconsin

After a pretty stormy beginning to the week, Wausau looks pretty good… for now. Be sure to check below the satellite image for some links to some Wausau area weather blogs.

At 1154AM, CT, Wausau was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. High pressure has finally worked its way into the northern tier and will keep today warm and dry, however the jet along the US/Canadian border is becoming stronger, and a trough over the Canadian Rockies will mean surface development over the weekend.
Expect a rough night tomorrow evening as thunderstorms will develop with the low along the Wisconsin/Minnesota border tomorrow evening. The strength of this system will mean a quick warm up on Saturday ahead of the rain and thunder that will come as many in Wausau are asleep. The thunderstorms, which may feature gusty straight line winds, particularly upon their arrival in Wausau in the wee hours of Sunday morning, will plow through quickly, and leave most of Sunday to pick up any debris these storms can blow around.
Tomorrow – Hot and humid, with thunderstorms arriving before midnight, High 90, Low 63
Sunday – Morning thunderstorms, some severe, becoming clearer and much more pleasant, High 81, Low 63 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny (PM Storms). High 85, Low 64
Sunday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm High 79, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and humid (PM Storms) High 90, Low 62
Sunday – A shower or thunderstorm around in the morning; otherwise, partly sunny High 82, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (storms after 10) High 84, Low 62
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. High 83, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy (PM storms), High 84, Low 62
Sunday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 67

Pretty quiet now, but things will light up especially overnight Saturday into Sunday. Get home from the bars early! Don’t forget to check the bottom of the page some links!

Wausau weather blog links!

Weather You Like it Or Not – WAOW is currently looking at storms they saw earlier in the week.

Jeremy Tabin – Tabin is a meteorologist at WSAW and he’s still talking about the storms that brought in some gusty winds earlier this week as well.

New London, Connecticut

I know the schedule fr today was for Norwich, but New London is in the same metro area and actually has an observation station.

At 1156PM, ET, New London was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with cloudy skies. A system in Canada is sweeping a cold front through the eastern Great Lakes and generating an onshore flow that was importing dew points in the upper 60s for the Connecticut coast which was helping the low clouds and some possible sea fog develop along the seashore.
The system in Canada is particularly well developed for this time of year, and it’s cold front will certainly hold together as it continues to charge to the east, arriving in Connecticut tomorrow evening. The nature of the system and it’s well established circulation suggests that some shower activity will continue even after the cold front moves through with post frontal troughs, though humidity will certainly be decreased on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny with some passing showers, High 84, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 68
Saturday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 86, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer and humid with clouds breaking for some sun (rain/storms after 9) High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Humid with times of clouds and sun (Early AM thunderstorms) High 87, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (storms before midnight) High 84, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny (AM rain) High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny with thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny, High 87, Low 70

The Weather Channel and Weatherbug just came out with new websites. Have fun with that. Try and find the cold front here:

Well, I was right

I said at the time I was forecasting for the beautiful Napa Valley that I wasn’t quite sure why everyone was going so much warmer than models indicated. They had stayed cooler than average, which is what the models were saying again on Sunday when the forecast was issued. Believe it or not, they stayed fairly cool again, which I TRIED to tell you people. It stayed even cooler than what I had thought. Summer will come to California some day.

Actuals: Monday – High 74, Low 54
Tuesday – High 75, low 56

Grade B