Category Archives: Forecast

Laredo, Texas

Way down in southern Texas, right on the Rio Grande for today’s forecast. Did you know that Laredo is the largest city in America without a bookstore? Something to be proud of.

At 356PM, CT, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 102 with partly cloudy skies. Laredo was still in the summer time pattern, mostly avoiding any wet weather thanks to their inland nature and their southern position away from any advancing systems in the Plains. Generally speaking, Laredo only has to worry about tropical systems in he late summer, and whether or not they can push inland. Seeing as Earl, Fiona and Gaston are all presently taking a an East Coast track, Laredo appears to be safe from rain for the next couple of days.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast, from Brownsville to Beaumont, however the only impact on Laredo will likely be a brief respite in the searing heat should some high clouds blow west into the Rio Grande Valley, though that appears unlikely. A deep high pressure will push into the southern Plains and the southern edge will provide a trigger point through Texas that may actually bring some increased clouds to Laredo on Friday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 103, Low 79
Friday – Increased clouds, still warm, High 100, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered clouds with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm developing during the afternoon. Hot High 101, Low 78
Friday – Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon High 99, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 102, Low 79
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 100, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot High 102, Low 80
Friday – 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 102, Low 80
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 101, Low 79

A look at the satellite shows Earl really well, as well as those storms along the Texas coast.

Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico

I can’t remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday – High 87, Low 53

Grade: D

Miles above everyone else

The question in Des Moines was whether or not clouds would accompany a strong southerly flow associated with a strong low in the Dakotas. The clouds didn’t come, as it turned out, and only one provider foresaw a sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. As usual, that was the Weather Channel, who outclassed everyone by at least 10 degrees.
Actuals: Sunday – High 92, Low 67
Monday – High 90, Low 72

Grade: A

Eugene, Oregon

After so many summery forecasts, well, now we end up with this in Oregon. Sorry, folks.

At 959AM, PT, Eugene was reporting low clouds, rain and a temperature of 53 degrees. A band of showers was seen spanning from the coast near Florence to Eugene and inland to the Cascades west of Bend. More isolated activity was seen south to the California border. A weak low level low has shifted ashore from the western Pacific and is the source of the rain being seen here and further inland.
The overall pattern aloft is of a stout ridge in the east and a sharp trough over the Rockies, along which the weak Oregonian low is riding. The jet streak providing the support for the wet weather will break down due to it’s stagnation and the moisture in Eugene will languish tomorrow. A stronger jet moving along the Alaska Panhandle will usher in deeper low pressure by midweek, however the mean jet will be just north of Eugene. Expect some warming temperatures on Wednesday, but continued clouds and a threat for rain.
Tomorrow – Dreary with rain, High 71, Low 46
Wednesday – Rain again likely, particularly in the afternoon, High 74, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers. High 70, Low 46
Wednesday – A few morning showers. High 73, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 74, Low 47
Wednesday – Some sun with a passing shower High 76, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 51
Wednesday -A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon, High 70, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny. Slight chance of showers, High 76, Low 52

It appears that Accuweather is forecasting for some other Euguene that the rest of us were not aware of. Here is the drizzly radar.

Santa Fe, New Mexico

Off to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment.

At 1153AM, PT, Santa Fe was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. The daily monsoon hasn’t yet become active, and a trough over southern New Mexico may slow down the convection, however a strong, developing low over the northern Rockies will probably induce enough southerly flow to overcome the trough’s influence.
The low will shift off to the northeast into Ontario over the forecast period, though a trough will continue to run ahead of the primary cold front in the Upper Midwest. It will act to prevent the thunderstorm activity from filtering out of southern New Mexico, keeping Santa Fe pleasant and dry for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 77, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; breezy High 80, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 83, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thudnerstorms, High 66, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 51

Uh oh, some problems with Weatherbug’s numerical output. Satellite? Quiet

Everybody’s perfect

At one point in the forecast period, every single one of the forecasters had a perfect verification, be it a high or a low. at some point in the forecast for Syracuse. That said, there were some pretty good forecasts on this occasion, with Victoria-Weather and Accuweather getting a tie on top.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 52
Saturday -High 81, Low 52

Grade: A

Des Moines, Iowa

Oh boy, high pressure!

At 1154AM, CT, Des Moines was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. A very well defined ridge existed in the eastern United States, while at the back edge of the ridge, a slow moving boundary fed off the northerly flow created by the anticyclonic flow.
A deep trough over the west will try to push east towards the ridge, but it is expected to hold up to the pressure of the advancing trough. A stronger southerly flow will be induced by the pressure gradient between the two systems, so expect some blustery but warm days for Des Moines.
Tomorrow – Sunny and breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday – Increasingly cloudy, High 86, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Hot. High 91, Low 66
Monday – A few clouds. High 89, Low 71

AW – Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 86, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, breezy and humid High 88, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Breezy, High 88, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67

That’s going to be tough on Monday. Will it cloud up, or will the warm advection dominate? It will be interesting to see.

High pressure, high quality

The weather in Knoxville was graciously dominated by high pressure the past two days. this meant sunny skies, and somewhat cool air, but that was thanks to elevation more than any real climactic shift. The forecast was easily handled by Accuweather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 65
Thursday – High 89, Low 64

Grade: A

Syracuse, New York

I’m getting to this late, and I really have no good excuse as to why. Sorry, Syracuse.

At 1254AM, ET, Syracuse was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The chilly air was thanks in large part to a dominant ridge of high pressure behind a cool front that has pushed off the New England coast.
Syracuse will remain in their present pattern, as the upper level ridge is well entrenched. Temperatures will warm slightly over the next couple of days, owing to the late summer sun that will be in abundance.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 52
Saturday – Sunshine continues, High 82, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 73, Low 55
Saturday – Sunshine. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow- Areas of morning fog; otherwise, mostly sunny High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, mostly sunny and warmer; a beautiful start to the weekend High 81, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 81, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 74, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 81, Low 54

Thank you, Accuweather, for your commentary. It is much appreciated. Here is a look at the satellite, and OH NO WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND?!

Could have been worse

For many, the summer is beginning to drag, especially in terms of the hot, humid temperatures. We were thinking there might be a bit of a break on the way for Little Rock, but it never came, at least in terms of temperature relief. At the very least, the dew points were in the low to mid 60s, which was some relief for residents of central Arkansas. It was still very hot, and the Weather Channel kept their forecast warm to claim the top spot in Little Rock.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 95, Low 69
Wednesday, High 92, Low 74

Grade: A