Category Archives: Forecast

Chattanooga, Tennessee

In one sense, we couldn’t have asked for a better week to talk about the weather of Tennessee. Of course, the reason for that is devastating and melancholy. Perhaps we can bring some better news to Chattanooga.

At 953PM, ET, Chattanooga was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. They are presently between systems, and will enjoy a quiet night. The front that had dumped so much rain on Tennessee is now sitting along the Carolina coast, and the next system lies over the northern Plains, with a cold front tailing through Iowa.
This system is likely not to spread it’s influence as far south as Chattanooga, and is going to occlude rather rapidly thanks to a fairly east-west flowing jet. This will mean a warm up, uncomfortable perhaps to some, thanks to the flow associated with the system, and the cold front likely will not dip further south than the Great Lakes. A minor cool down is a possibility on Thursday with a change in wind direction to come more from the west-northwest, but it will not come with precipitation.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 89, Low 59
Thursday – Continued hot, with a some clouds in the afternoon, High 90, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Warm High 87, Low 56
Thursday – More sun than clouds. High 89, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine High 88, Low 56
Thursday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 87, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny High 87, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 59
Thursday – Sunny High 89, Low 59

And the NWS point forecast done broke again. That’s a shame. Here is the satellite, showing you where the recent front pulled off to.

Soaker

A cold front has stalled itself along the Appalachians and Smokeys. The city of Nashville is underwater, if you haven’t heard, and the state of Tennessee is in the midst of a full blown catastrophe, with dozens dead due to the rising floodwaters. Kingsport, our forecast from Saturday, was spared that degree of unpleasantness, though the beginning of the week was not enjoyable to say the least. After a brief tease of some rain in the midst of near 90 degree heat on Sunday, they got over an inch of rain on Monday. As it turned out, Weatherbug tied us for the top spot on this one.
Actuals: Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 89, Low 60
Monday – 1.08 inches of rain, High 79, Low 65

Grade B

Evansville, Indiana

Far southern Indiana, along the shores of the Ohio River for today’s forecast. What mysteries does Evansville provide?

At 954PM, CT, Evansville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. A fairly inactive cold front lurked to the west over central Illinois, generating a temperature drop off of 10-15 degrees. At this time, however, Evansville was looking at another unseasonably warm day with sunny skies.
A frontal passage over the weekend brought dew points down to the more manageable 50s, and will allow temperatures to spike with the drier conditions. The warmer temperatures may generate enough energy for some showers and storms, particularly to the north later today and into early tomorrow morning.After those scattered showers and storms move out, likely around sunrise, Evansville will see a prolonged period of pleasant weather. A system moving along the US/Canadian border will bring a slight chance for inclement weather late on Wednesday, however the bulk of the forecast period will be dry and the system to the north will aid in southerly flow which will keep things quite warm.
Tomorrow – AM Showers and storms, High 79, Low 55
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, High 83, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. (AM showers/storms) Warm. High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunshine. High 87, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (AM Showers) High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Very warm with sunshine high 85, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (AM Rain), High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (AM Showers). High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 56

Not bad for hours that residents of Evansville are actually awake. A look at the satellite shows that front that swept through over the weekend, and some poofy clouds that may end up as thunderstorms tonight.

Two disparate forecasts, both very wrong

There were two schools of thought on the forecast in Bangor. One said that things would warm up on Sunday after a warm front passed though and some stout southerly flow picked up. Another said the temperature would drop off precipitously on Sunday as clouds and drizzle rolled in. The forecasts could not have been more different. As it happens, they were both wrong. Extremely wrong. The temperature was able to climb to near 80 both days of the weekend, and the lows were also much warmer than expected. On top of that, the rain that was supposed to come on Sunday never came, and instead we looked at some isolated drizzle on Saturday. We could say that The Weather Channel was the winner in Bangor, but the truth is, there was no winner. Well, except for the people of Bangor, who saw such excellent weather.
Actuals: Saturday – rain reported, not measured, High 79, Low 45
Sunday – High 79, Low 55

Grade: D (very close to an F)

Kingsport, Tennessee

We’re taking a trip to the far eastern tip of Tennessee for the second week in a row. This may be a messy beginning of the week.

At 1153PM, ET, Kingsport was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with partly cloudy skies. A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from the Daniel Boone Forest in Kentucky to just east of Crossville, and is marching methodically to the east towards Kingsport. The systems primary cold front was generating a line of thunderstorms and an energetic environment ahead of the cold front and the SPC has issued a “high risk” for parts of western Tennessee. This energetic part of the system still has a while before it can reach the Smokeys, and will likely be taken apart before any severe weather can reach Kingsport.
Expect just a few showers and storms today and tomorrow ahead of the primary system, but not anything particularly intense. The primary cold front will arrive instead late on Monday with the heaviest rain and thunderstorms. With this frontal passage, there will be a threat for some strong winds and even some small hail, something that is not expected today or tomorrow. With strong southerly flow ahead of the front, expect hot and humid weather tomorrow, with only a minor cool down with rain and precip on Monday.
Tomorrow – Isolated midday thunderstorms, High 88, Low 63
Monday – Strong storms and heavy rain in the afternoon, High 80, Low 62 (Non Standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and windy with a thunderstorm or two possible in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 89, Low 68
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms High 77, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun with a couple of thunderstorms around; breezy High 85, Low 62
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 80, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy High 87, Low 62
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy High 77, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy High 89, Low 64
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy. High 81, Low 63

It should be noted that the NWS was having problems with their site, and those numbers are estimates of things like “upper 80s” and whatnot. They’ll still do better than the Weather Channel, who I am not sure knows what they are doing on this one. A look at the radar shows rain on the way.

Bangor, Maine

We’re headed off to Maine for today’s forecast. I think we only do this forecast whenever it’s raw and nasty up in Maine, so I wonder what it will be like with an early May forecast.

At 1153AM, ET, Bangor was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with partly cloudy. The entire East Coast was enjoying a pleasant midday, with an area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes that extended a tongue of high clouds into central New England, though there was little by way of surface forcing. A separate low over southeastern Canada was generating a gusty off shore flow.
A broad trough is running over the western part of the country, and the northerly component is shifting east. Bangor will be dry and pleasant for the next 36 hours or so. The low over the Great Lakes will occlude, and the occluded front will push into Downstate Maine overnight Saturday into Sunday. Expect some chilly rain to take the weekend out after a rather pleasant beginning to the weekend. Cloudy skies are anticipated when rain is not seen on Sunday, but the lifting warm front and passing occlusion will make things warmer.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 64, Low 40
Sunday – Rain begins early, cloudy, High 75, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow- Mostly sunny skies (showers after 10pm). High 69, Low 40
Sunday – Few showers. High 74, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 37
Sunday – Rather cloudy and warm; a shower in the afternoon High 74, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and warm; a shower in the afternoon High 76, Low 36
Sunday – A chance of showers high 65, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 77, Low 35
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the afternoon High 66, Low 50

This is a stunning change in philosophy between two forecasting camps. Three forecasters have temperatures climbing from Saturday to Sunday, two have them dropping precipitously. Stunningly variant. We’ll see how this goes. The satellite is seen below.

Feels like Fall

Well, it did in Allentown the past couple of days. The variation in temperature was only 5 degrees for the entire 48 hour period thanks to the thick layer of clouds that buffered the area, and the temperatures never climbed above 54 or dropped below 49. The average temperature everyone had in their forecasts all ended up in the same neighborhood, but the highs and lows weren’t too good for anyone. Accuweather ended up with the top forecast for Allentown.
Actuals: Monday – .27 inches of rain, High 53, Low 49
Tuesday – .02 inches of rain, High 54, Low 49

Grade: C

Allentown, Pennsylvania

We’re headed out east to Allentown again with today’s forecast. For some reason, the Victoria-Weather Scheduletron 3000 likes to latch on to some cities over and over again for a couple of months. Allentown appears to be one of those cities early in 2010.

At 451PM, ET, Allentown was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. An east wind was indicative of the strong area of low pressure still found to the southwest of Allentown. The upper level low that has been the cause of so many problems over the center of the country of late is now centered south of the Great Lakes, extending an occluded front through Pennsylvania, where the fronts split at the occlusion point. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for western Pennsylvania, and Allentown happens to currently sit to the north of the warm front. In the warm sector, isolated thunderstorms are cropping up over Maryland’s Eastern Shore and parts of Delaware, all shifting to the northeast.
The jet aiding in the sustenance of the low will steer the system in a more typically winterlike pattern. The low will lose a lot of it’s organization and intensity and will stall over New England over the next two days. Overcast skies will continue for most of the next two days. Tomorrow will certainly see some rain for most of the day, though most of the day will be dry on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday – Early morning showers, then clearing slightly, High 57, Low 42 (Non Standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. Thunder possible. High 58, low 46
Tuesday – A few morning showers., High 61, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Rain High 56, Low 47
Tuesday – A blend of sunshine and clouds with a couple of showers, mainly early; breezy High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers. High 57, low 46
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Showers. High 57, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 59, Low 42

A look at the radar shows the thunderstorms entering from the south.

Catching the nasty weather

Johnson City didn’t see quite as much rain as we had called for, but between the two days of our forecast period they did receive over a half an inch of rain, which isn’t peanuts. Like Oklahoma City, the previous city in our forecast repertoire, Johnson City managed to avoid the severe weather, however, which is of course good news, considering the destruction off to their southeast. Weatherbug, who wrote a novel for their forecast, had the top forecast in Johnson City.
Actuals: Friday – .17 inches of rain High 76, Low 46
Saturday – .42 inches of rain, some in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 57

Grade: B

Dodging the severe weather

It’s been a rough couple of days for the southern US in terms of severe weather. In Oklahoma City, however, they got lucky. It didn’t rain or storm in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, and they avoided any severe storms yesterday. Temperatures were down, which may have prevented the genesis of strong storms in their immediate area, but the bigger deal was that storms developed further west than anticipated and began to die out overnight. Accuweather and The Weather Channel had the top forecasts for the better than expected weather.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 57
Thursday – .17 inches of rain, High 75, Low 61

Grade: C