All posts by Anthony

The “Weather” Channel

The other day, The Weather Channel had a nice little clip talking about the New Madrid Fault Zone, which is an active earthquake zone in the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Most of the earthquakes are too small to be felt, with perhaps 1 a year being noticeable to most people. Check out the video here: New Madrid Fault Zone.  Overall, it is pretty informative, a very large quake nowadays would devastate Memphis and cause damage to St. Louis, Evansville, Louisville, and even Cincinnati. The main reason an earthquake here would so damaging is because the ground under the region is mostly loose silt and soft earth, whereas a large earthquake in say, Los Angeles, would be less ranging b/c of the mountain ranges and mostly rocky base throughout the region. While a powerful earthquake, especially the ones of 1811-1812 that reversed the flow of the Mississippi for roughly 3 days and was even felt in New York City, is unlikely anytime soon, retrofitting buildings isn’t such a bad idea.

However, WTF does this have to do with weather!!?!  Last time I checked, there aren’t Earthquakes on the Eights or Seismic Stories on the programming, so why bother even reporting about this? Granted, more people probably know somebody who’s a meteorologist than seismologist or geologist, but for some reason being a meteorologist is layman’s terms for “all-knowing scientist”. While “The Geology Channel” doesn’t quite have that ring to it, perhaps TWC should stick to what’s going on above the ground rather than below it. Then again, if there’s anything going on in the Atlanta area, you wouldn’t be hearing about your own weather anyways.

Naples, Florida

At 12:53pm EDT, the temperature in Naples, Florida was 75 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A lingering cold/stationary front that’s been found over the Florida Peninsula and along the Gulf Coast has slowly been weakening the last couple of days, but there will still be a decent amount of instability over the region. An ill-defined disturbance over the Lower MS Valley will slowly trek eastward through the Deep South over the next couple of days, enhancing some of the thunderstorm activity farther north over Florida. Tuesday should see a fair amount of activity over the northern 2/3rds of the state especially when the sea breezes converge over the interior part of the state, but Naples could see a few scattered showers still make it down their way. Wednesday sees that aforementioned area of low pressure become a bit better defined towards the Carolinas, giving them a good chance of some stronger thunderstorms during the day. A weak area of high pressure looks to build back over Florida and into the Central Gulf behind this system and keep southern Florida mostly on the dry side, but there will still be a few scattered showers popping up during the afternoon. Overall it should be a good couple of days for beach goers, but Tuesday will definitely be the day to keep an eye on the sky for more scattered activity.

Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorm. High 80, Low 62.
Wednesday. 20% chance of a scattered shower, maybe an isolated thunderstorm. High 79, Low 65.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 77, Low 66.

AW: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 61.
Wednesday: Isolated shower/thundershower possible. High 78, Low 65.

NWS: Tuesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 65.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 66.

Some moderate showers are found well off to the north of Naples and off over the Gulf. Some more of these might draw closer tomorrow.

Bridgeport, Connecticut

At 1:54pm EDT, the temperature at Bridgeport, CT was 58 degrees under fair skies. A strong cold front approaching from the west is going to bring some showers and thunderstorms to southern New England during the early morning hours on Friday. Most of the heavy stuff should have pushed off to the east by the time noon rolls around, but some lingering showers directly along the front could still threaten the region. By early evening though, the front will have blown through, with some spotty low clouds trailing behind it. A trough looks to swing through portions of the Northeast and New England on Saturday, but downslope winds should keep clouds at a minimum.

Friday: Morning rain/thunderstorms, drying out in afternoon. High 59, Low 43.
Saturday: Sunny, few clouds. High 58, Low 38.

TWC: Friday: Thunderstorms turning to showers. High 61, Low 48.
Saturday. Sunny and cooler. High 58, Low 40.

AW: Friday: AM rain, becoming cooler. High 58, Low 46.
Saturday: Partly sunny and breeze. High 59, Low 41.

NWS: Friday: Storms until noontime, then couple of showers before clearing. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny and cooler. High 60, Low 40.

WB: Friday: 50% chance of rain. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny. High 60, Low 40.

Here we see the cold front off to the west bearing down on New England. After it moves through, however, it should be a fairly enjoyable weekend!

Record Warmth

I mentioned in Salisbury‘s forecast that they had a chance at some record warmth for both days. Well, they tied it on Tuesday, the 88 matching what they got back in 1929. They nearly matched the feat on Wednesday as well, when they fell just 1 degree short of the record for that date. TWC narrowly edged out VicWx for the top spot, albeit everybody was a good amount off in the temperatures as it’s a little difficult to predict two straight days of near-record warmth.

Thursday: High 88 (T-1929 record), Low 56.
Friday: High 88, Low 67.

Forecast grade: D

Salisbury, Maryland to San Jose, California

For the 2nd straight time, we have a ridiculously long road trip to embark on, from sea to shining sea (so to speak). This one covers 2,959 miles. Hope you brought enough snacks.

DAY ONE
The high pressure ridge over the Eastern US will make for some near record warmth over the Northeast as we make out way past Baltimore and through Hagerstown, PA. Clouds will be on the increase as we make our way past Pittsburgh as low pressure over the Southern Great Lakes will push a vigorous cold front eastward. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over the Mid-MS Valley and into the Ohio Valley later in the day. Luckily, we’ll escape much of this activity until we make it to Cleveland, our 1st stop. Gusty winds are expected later on in the day as we make our way through the Appalachians. Some scattered showers are possible ahead of the front late in the evening, with some thunderstorms possible late at night as the front makes its way through OH.

DAY TWO
The cold front will be moving through Cleveland right around when we wake up, which could make for some interesting traffic as rain and some thunderstorms are expected during the morning rush hour. Once the front moves through, however, precip should trail off pretty quickly and gusty winds switch around from the northwest. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today thanks to the new air mass spilling in from the Upper Midwest, and those gusty winds won’t be helping matters much either. In any event, rain showers should tail off by late morning as we make our way out of Indiana into northern Illinois. Quiet conditions should greet us for the rest of the day through Iowa City, IA, our stop for day 2.

DAY THREE
Alas, it’s a quiet day for us as we continue our tour of I-80. High pressure ridge has developed over the Central US as the lingering end of a cold/stationary front is found parked over the Dakotas. An area of low pressure attempts to weakly form along the front in the Northern Rockies, but will otherwise remain fairly benign. Some high clouds will greet us as we pull into Ogallala, NE for the end of the day.

DAY FOUR
An area of low pressure will develop over the High Central Plains during the day today as we’re making our way westward into southern Wyoming. The lingering cold/stationary front over the Northern Rockies will pretty much camp out where it is, however some increased shower activity will kick up over the Dakotas and northern WY. Some of these wandering showers might wet the windshield as we travel through southwestern WY, but will wind down during the late evening as the sun sets for the day. Some thickening clouds will be expected as we pull into Salt Lake City for the night.

DAY FIVE
An upper-level trough will be digging into the West Coast, spreading showers throughout the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies. Luckily, most of these showers should stay off to the north of I-80 as we continue our westward push out of SLC and into the high deserts of northern NV. Sunglasses probably won’t be needed today as clouds will continue to stream over the region ahead of the advancing trough, but shower and isolated thunderstorm activity should be mainly found over Oregon and Idaho throughout the day. Conditions should be nice as we pull into Reno, NV, our stop for the day. We’re almost there!

DAY SIX
As broad low pressure continues to develop over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, a cutoff area of low pressure will have swung well off the CA coastline before making an easterly turn towards Baja California. The main impulse of energy over the Pacific Northwest will shift into the Northern Rockies, and inbetween these 2 systems, a brief ridge of high pressure looks to develop over Central CA into Southwest OR. This couldn’t be timed any better, since it’ll keep the rest of our trip through the Rockies, through Sacramento, and into the Bay Area, finally arriving at our final destination! After two long trips like this, I think the family is going to not mind about those airline fees and just fly.

Sunshine State Holds True

The Gainesville forecast had plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Some dense fog develops early Thursday morning and burned off shortly after sunrise, but kept morning low a couple degrees higher than most people had. All told, VicWx and TWC finished in a tie for 1st. AW didn’t live up to their moniker, once again, and brought up the rear. Apologies for the delay in the verification, there was a glitch in the system. No worries, it’s been fixed!

Thursday: High 84, Low 47.
Friday: High 85, Low 48.

Forecast Grade: A

Salisbury, Maryland

Our string of East Coast forecasts continues. This time we visit one of the hometowns of one of my friends, will she continue to experience the unseasonably warm weather they’ve been having there lately?

At 5:54PM EDT, the temperature was 79 degrees under fair skies. A few high clouds were found overhead as a frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley is lifting northward into the Great Lakes. Remember that large high pressure ridge over the eastern US that’s dominated the last few forecasts? Yup, it’ll keep things nice and toasty here too. The high today was 82 degrees, a new record high (old record: 80 in 1985). The next couple of days have an outside shot of cracking it as well, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Some fog is expected during the early morning hours Tuesday and burn off not too long after sunrise, but should keep temperatures a couple degrees higher for lows tonight. Otherwise a run at a possible record is in store tomorrow (88 in 1929), less so on Wednesday since the record is 89. If you’re wondering, the average high is about 64 degrees.

Tuesday: Some morning fog, few AM clouds, then sunny. High 84, Low 54.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 59.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 62.

AW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 50.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

NWS: Tuesday: AM fog, afternoon sun. High 85, Low 51.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 83, Low 51.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 84, Low 58.

Some clouds off to the west will lift north into the Northeast for tomorrow. Meanwhile, all that nothingness over the Southeast will move over the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow.

High Pressure Continues

The large scale ridge over the Eastern US continued it’s stranglehold over the region, forcing the upper-level trough into Canada. As Ryan had mentioned, clouds were on the increase, but no precip was able to come close to Altoona over the last couple of days. TWC came out on top thanks to their slightly cooler temperatures.

Saturday: High 75, Low 51.
Sunday: High 70, Low 51.

Forecast Grade: A

Tobacco Road Success

Ryan’s forecast for Greensboro had low temperatures a good few degrees warmer than most everybody else. Turns out, that’s what propelled him to a victory for his weekend forecast! Can Duke duplicate this success in tomorrow’s title game vs. Butler? If he could forecast that as accurately as his Greensboro temperatures, Ryan would be vacationing in Vegas right now instead of the West Coast.

Friday: High 87, Low 51.
Saturday: High 80, Low 56.

Forecast Grade: B

Rome, Georgia

Ryan is off gallivanting around Southern California, earthquakes and all, so naturally, we get to forecast for somewhere completely on the opposite side of the country.

At 9:53PM EDT, the temperature was 66 degrees at Rome, GA under fair skies. Much like the last forecast I did, I would explain the intricacies of the weather pattern, chances of precip, harrowing weather conditions that are imminent, and so on. Sadly, much like my last forecast, this forecast is lacking any of that. While there is a frontal boundary found from the Ohio Valley down into the Southern Plains, this boundary will break up as it approaches the Appalachians. High pressure currently parked from the Carolinas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is dominating the region, and doesn’t show any signs of letting up over the next couple of days. Not until a rather vigorous cold front moves into the region on Thursday morning will Rome see a chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the meantime, warm temperatures and sunny skies will greet the start of the workweek.

Monday: Sunny, a few clouds. High 86, Low 56.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 87, Low 53.

NWS: Monday: Sunny. High 85. Low 55.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 57.

AW: Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. High 86, Low 54.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 88, Low 52.

WB: Monday: Sunny. High 86, Low 55.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 85, Low 54.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 87, Low 55.
Tuesday: Sunny. High 87, Low 55.

As mentioned before, not much to see over the Southeast today. Maybe those storms on Thursday will make things more interesting!