All posts by Anthony

Hurricane Season Teases

Hurricane season for the Atlantic basin started a couple weeks ago, and all-in-all, it looked like quiet days were expected. That’s exactly how it’s panned out so far, but it looked like something interesting was getting stirred up around the Yucatan Peninsula! The 00 and 06Z GFS model runs indicated a low pressure system spinning up in the Bay of Campeche in about 6-8 days and meandering its way towards the Texas/Mexico border. Something to keep an eye on!

Then… the 12Z and 18Z model runs came through. Expectations were had! Instead, almost nothing of note is found there anymore. A bit of a surface trough still lingers in the region with clusters of possible convection festering nearby, but nothing like the earlier runs indicating a B-named storm getting spun up. The only area of note is waaaay out in the Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands. Usually we don’t get too excited about storms that far out in June/July since the upper level patterns don’t typically favor development that far east. August/September is usually when we gander that far out. But until then, we’ll continue to wait.

When Perfection Finishes Second

Outside of maaaaybe a shot of a rain shower in Philly, the weather seemed to be pretty good for midweek. That slight chance of a shower though was enough to alter the standings. Even though the NWS had a PERFECT temperature forecast (hooray!), their chances of showers on both days was enough to bring them down to 2nd place, as WN won with their dry forecast.

Wednesday: High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: High 72, Low 54.
Forecast Grade: A

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We head off to the City of Brotherly Love today, and let’s see if the weather is just as lovely!

At 1154pm EDT, the temperature in Philadelphia, PA was 57 degrees under overcast skies. There’s an area of high pressure at the surface found over the Great Lakes that’s slowly pushing its way eastward. However, there’s a mid-level disturbance that continues to linger over Southern New England and is dropping southward throughout Wednesday. While some isolated showers are found in the area, they’re dropping southward currently and not expected to affect the city. There could be some morning to midday showers tomorrow over the mountains off to the west while overcast skies continue to linger over Philly. The system should clear out some for Thursday, leading to warmer temperatures, but mostly cloudy skies are still in the cards. It’ll be a few days until a decent system is expected to bring showers to the region, so looks like an enjoyable weekend is on the horizon!

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 69, Low 54.
Thursday: Warmer, remaining mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 55.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, few morning showers. High 68, Low 53.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a shower; cool. High 63, Low 54.
Thursday: Clouds giving way to sun. High 69, Low 52.

NWS: Wednesday: Isolated early morning showers, mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: Slight chance of showers. High 72, Low 54.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 65, Low 52.
Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69, Low 53.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 66, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 72, Low 54.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy until night. High 71, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until night. High 76, Low 52.

There’s a few light showers off to the southwest and dwindling as we head through the overnight hours. More dry weather is in store for the area today!

Hurricane Season Begins Anew

The start of June means two things. One, it’s the official start of Meteorological Summer! Astronomical Summer starts on the Summer Solstice, (June 21), but Meteorological Summer denotes the hottest 3 months of the year, June-August. Soon we’ll get to freak out about heat waves instead of blizzards!

Two, it’s the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season! It runs from June 1 – November 30th, but storms can develop and get a name outside of that time frame. We’ve already had one named storm back in mid-April, Arlene. It stayed a weak tropical storm and just kinda festered in the mid-Atlantic, doing a complete loop before fizzling out. The current projections for the 2017 Atlantic season have 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes developing this season (the long-term averages are 12, 6, and 3). There’s nothing out on the horizon right now in the Atlantic, so we can expect a quiet start. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 – November 15, and has already seen a couple of named storms this season. In fact, Tropical Storm Beatriz made landfall earlier today over south-central Mexico, but was mainly *just* a rainfall nuisance. Hopefully the rest of the season will be just as quiet for beachfront communities!

Gulfport, Mississippi to Macon, Georgia

Only a one-day trip today, from the Gulf Coast to Central Georgia. Will the Southeast be quiet as we make our way to the Peach State for a weekend getaway? Let’s see!

High pressure is found throughout the Southeast today, and should be a fog-free morning as we head out of Gulfport towards Mobile, AL. No afternoon showers and storms are expected along the route, so it should be a quiet and sun-filled day for the entire route! Easy peasy!

Temperature Quirk

Well the scattered thunderstorms expected to be dancing around San Antonio on Thursday did indeed dance around the city and spare them from some evening downpours. What was most surprising was that the temperature spiked to 87 degrees, which was pecular when delving deeper into the data. It went form 82 to at 2pm to 87 at 236pm down to 84 at 3pm. Not sure what caused the spike, maybe a bit of an extended period of sun amongst the mostly cloudy skies? Who knows. All we know is that Accuweather took home a narrow victory.

Tuesday: High 87, Low 62.
Wednesday: High 87, Low 54.
Forecast Grade: C-F

San Antonio, Texas

Today we head off to the heart of Texas where some of my relatives reside, San Antonio! As we draw closer and closer to summer, let’s see how warm it’s getting down in the Lone Star State!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at San Antonio, TX was 72 degrees under overcast skies. While high pressure is pushing south from the Northern High Plains, a mid-level disturbance is working its way through CO/NM and looks to swing through TX over the next 24 hours. Scattered storms are already firing over Western TX and look to push eastward throughout the day, bringing some inclement weather to the San Antonio weather in the afternoon and early-evening hours. It’s a quick moving system so the area should be cleared by late evening as high pressure continues to build over the state overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be warmer and sunny, so a pleasant day looks to be in the store as dew points will be 15-20 degrees lower than Tuesday! Enjoy!

Tuesday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 78, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny and warmer. High 86, Low 60.

TWC: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 86, Low 57.

AW: Tuesday: A p.m. thunderstorm in spots. High 82, Low 66.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and less humid. High 86, Low 56.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 82, Low 65.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 85, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 64.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 57.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 82, Low 68.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 59.

FIO: Tuesday: Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 81, Low 59.
Wednesday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 71, Low 57.

Here we see many showers and thunderstorms off to the northwest of San Antonio and generally headed in their direction. Could be a stormy day tomorrow for the area before clearing out midweek.

When Weather Meets Sports

Often times, sports are at the mercy of the elements. Football games are played in the rain and snow and ridiculous cold. Soccer matches are played in blistering heat and drowning humidity. Baseball games are usually what we equate most to being affected by the elements since teams usually encounter several rain delays a season. However, today is the 38th anniversary of a game that was greatly affected by another weather element… wind!

On May 17th, 1979, the Philadelphia Phillies played the Chicago Cubs in south-southwesterly winds steady at 20-25mph and gusting to almost 40mph at times. The Windy City certainly lived up to its name, since that wind direction blows straight out to left at Wrigley Field. Wrigley is famous (or infamous) for games in which the wind blows out, since balls that are normally hit as long fly outs often times wind up landing in the bleachers. This game was no exception but wound up becoming an extreme example. By the time the game was over after 10 innings, the two teams combined for 11 home runs and an incredible 45 runs, as the Phillies defeated the Cubs 23-22. Those 45 runs are the 2nd most in a MLB game in history, with the Phillies and Cubs combining for 49 back in the 1920s.

Today, the Reds and Cubs played a game in which “only” 12 runs, but the winds were gusty from the south-southwest once again. In fact, one Reds batter hit a ball that given it’s trajectory leaving the bat has NEVER been a home run… until tonight. Gotta love weather, never know what it will affect on a day to day basis!

Warm Weather Then Washout?

Spring is finally taking hold over the Upper Midwest, with temperatures this weekend finally pushing into the 80s for the first time all year in the Twin Cities. The forecast not only calls for a couple more days in the 80s, but even a possible run at 90 for Tuesday. Sweltering even! However, the big story of the next few days isn’t the increasing heat, it’s the impending deluge that is taking aim at the Upper Midwest. A couple areas of low pressure look to eject along a stationary boundary that’s setting up over the region, and with them comes plentiful moisture from the south. The SPC has issued a Slight risk for southern MN for Monday and also extends through the area for Tuesday. This boundary is going to the the likely focus of training thunderstorms over the next couple of days, which could inundate newly planted crops when farmers were able to take advantage of the last few dry, sunny days. Rain is always good to help kickstart some new crops, but too much of a good thing could stop them before they even get a chance to get going.

Steady As She Goes

A hot, dry forecast was in the books for Brownsville, and it didn’t disappoint. It was a bit cloudier in the mornings than expected, but that didn’t stop temperatures from hitting the 90s both days. Temperatures were very even across both days, which I’m sure made it easy for people to plan how to go about their days. Accuweather edged out the victory.

Wednesday: High 90, Low 77.
Thursday: High 91, Low 78.
Forecast Grade: A-B