All posts by Ryan

Napa, California

For as warm as it’s been in the east, parts of California are cooler than they were in January. San Diego has reported record low maximum temperatures for the past week. Napa is north of San Francisco though. What are we doing there?

At 1254PM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. An unsettled pattered across the United States was demonstrated well by the upper levels which were littered with various eddies and troughs. Over the eastern Pacific a weak cut off low was set up, likely belaboring morning sea fog with the associated southeasterly flow for San Francisco Bay and the surrounding communities.
The low isn’t expected to move much for the next couple of days, which doesn’t bode well for a warm up in the Bay area, as the persistent cool, most flow will continue into the Napa Valley from the southeast. It won’t be as foggy as the cities along the immediate coast in the mornings, and it will likely be cooler than is typically expected this time of year.
Tomorrow – Morning fog and clouds, High 77, Low 53
Tuesday – Morning fog and clouds again, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 79, Low 56
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 81, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 78, Low 54
Tuesday – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny High 77, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 54
Tuesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of morning low clouds and fog. Otherwise sunny High 81, Low 59
Tuesday – Areas of morning low clouds and fog. Otherwise sunny. High 81, Low 58

Everyone is going warmer than what the models indicate, but that hasn’t born itself out lately, so I’m not sure where their ideas are coming from. We’ll find out soon enough what happens. The satellite is very quiet.

A new idea

Now that we have had our first Feature Forecast on the new site, thanks to Dan Thomas of WSMV in Nashville, I was thinking of other ways to bring the weather community to you. Every few weeks, I’ll link to any and all blogs from the city in question that I can find in any post that fits for the day. I’ll tell you early in the week, in case you are aware of any sites for the area that you might want me to link to. Does that make sense? Probably not. But we’re going to give it a shot on Friday when we look at Wasau Wisconsin to see what they have to offer! We’ll see how this goes.

No relief

There was hope that a few clouds and some storms in Winchester, and for that matter, the rest of the east coast, would cool things off over the past couple of days. Unfortunately, the storms never came, and it remained very warm in Winchester. 99 hot degrees on Thursday and only a few degrees cooler on Friday. The Weather Channel had the toasty forecast mostly correct and had the top spot. The hot seat, in this case.
Actuals: Thursday – High 99, Low 71
Friday – High 92, Low 75

Grade C

The Week Ahead 7/11/10-7/17/10

Good national coverage this week, so we’ll be able to get you a pretty good idea what is going on across the good ol’ US of A

Sunday – Napa, California
Monday – Road Trip from Napa, California to Farmington, New York
Thursday – Norwich, Connecticut
Friday – Wasau, Wisconsin
Saturday – Monroe Louisiana

Winchester, Virginia

Off to the East Coast where everything is hot. Just plain hot.

At 120PM, ET, Winchester was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 98 degrees. High pressure continues to dominate the east coast, continuing to exasperate the heat wave in the area, and Winchester would certainly reach 100 again today. Obviously, the city was in a heat advisory.
A weak, disorganized area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina will try to drift towards the Mid Atlantic, and may generate a few thunderstorms over the East Coast, but they won’t reach as far inland as Winchester. Clouds in the area may stave off temperatures tomorrow even if it doesn’t rain, but a real cool down won’t be likely until a cold front arrives on Friday night, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms, which will likely be loud and rainy.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, with temperatures dipping slightly. High 93, Low 70
Friday – Slightly cooler with thunderstorms in the evening, High 88, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Hot High 97, low 73
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 93, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy, hot and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 94, low 72
Friday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later; humid High 87, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 94, Low 70
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 94, Low 69
Friday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 70

Still hot, but cooling down a bit for northern Virginia. A look at the satellite shows the two systems bearing down on steamy Winchester.

Warmer without the rain

As one could probably imagine, things warmed up considerably in Wichita when the remnants of Alex finally pushed off on Tuesday. The Weather Channel’s gamble didn’t pay off, and temperatures yesterday pushed 90. This eventually gave Accuweather the top spot for the day, proving that they didn’t take the 4th of July off. Poor saps.
Actuals: Monday – .41inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 82, Low 68
Tuesday – High 89, Low 67

Grade: C


Two weeks in a row we take our travels to an island nation, though Iceland is a bit different from last weeks topic country, Cuba. Iceland, of course, is in the north Atlantic just on the outside of the Arctic Circle. They are generally too warm to be icy, at least on the coasts, because the Gulfstream that I constantly refer to in our East Coast forecasts eventually passes just south of the island nation. This keeps the Icelandic winters milder than one might expect for their latitude. The summers, however, don’t tend to be very warm. A hot day in Iceland is one that reaches the mid 70s. The path of systems that bring nasty weather to the northeast eventually takes them to Iceland. In many senses, Iceland is the place where systems go to die, and the country is often cloudy and precipitating in some fashion as an area of low pressure disbands over the area. Winds are also a common concern with the strong pressure gradients with those systems. Generally speaking, they never see any thunderstorms in Iceland, and only get lightning when one of their famous volcanoes erupts.
The Icelandic Met Office is the bureau that keeps Iceland abreast of the weather. Their site’s home page features three maps, one for wind, another for temperature and the last for precipitation. On the surface, Iceland appears to be one of those countries that keeps the weather forecasting behind the scenes, and hides things like radar or model data. With some digging though, the radar and satellite can be found under the “weather” tab, and further on the “observation” option on the sidebar. Further, under the “shipping forecast” option, you can poke around and find the actual surface analyses as well. So, while it seems the Icelanders are doing their meteorology in the background, they do offer a bit of a window into their world.
(I linked to their English site… for fun, check out Icelandic. They use a lot of letters.)

Heat wave

The difference between a summer and winter ridge is that in the winter, clear skies over night mean that temperatures over night plummet to well below zero. This is most common in the interior of the country, where they are far away from the warming effects of the ocean. In the summer, the persistently sunny skies inevitably lead to warming conditions. This is the case along the east coast, as you may have heard, where they haven’t had any rain or cause to break up the sunshine for over a week, and temperatures have responded by climbing into the upper 90s, even triple digits in some of the larger cities which will be aided by the concrete and asphalt in their quest for higher temperatures.
The east coast is also aided by the fact that the atmosphere isn’t as soupy in the mid Atlantic as it is further south in places like Atlanta and Birmingham, so the lower moisture don’t inhibit temperatures looking to skyrocket. Temperatures will continue to be toasty tomorrow for the east coast, and by toasty, I mean dangerously warm, in the neighborhood of 100+ degrees for many cities. Thursday may finally spell relief when a low in the Atlantic could bring some clouds and cooler weather.
It should be noted that with the flow of ridges, it is typically stagnant underneath them, as with the Megalopolis, however on the western flank, there is southerly flow, which could mean warmer temperatures, and almost certainly soupy weather in the Mississippi Valley as well, though there will be more widespread thunderstorms for residents there to cool off with.
Stay cool, residents from Concord to Charlotte! Only a couple more days to go!

Slow moving

As Anthony mentioned in yesterday’s forecast for Cheyenne, there is a huge, hot are of low pressure holding up traffic on the east coast. It’s making things get extremely warm for the the East Coast, and hung things up over the Upper Midwest as well. A boundary that threatened to move through Fargo Saturday night took until early Sunday to expend it’s moisture. The warm air built quickly behind it as a secondary cold front still hasn’t quite made it’s way through Fargo, and things were rather toasty in the city. Accuweather came through with the top forecast, when you realize I transcribed a 69 when I should have put in 59 for their Monday low.
Actuals: Sunday – .24 inches of rain, High 84, Low 63
Monday – High 83, Low 58

Grade: A

Wichita, Kansas

The winner of the 4th of July lottery is Wichita. Everyone in Wichita, stop enjoying the holiday and come read about the weather! Of course, the way thins look, you may be inside already.

At 1207PM, CT, Wichita was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 75 degrees. Most of their holiday looks to be a washout, as the remnants of Hurricane Alex are continuing to wring themselves out over the central Plains. A cold front associated with low pressure in the Canada was aiding in the continuing onslaught, but will eventually help things dry off. Presently, the last heavy round of rain was just entering Wichita, though most of the activity was training south to north, and the back side is still around Pratt, about 75 miles west. There was a wind shift between Great Bend and Russell that was probably the cold front.
Behind the elongated boundary and the remnants of Alex, an upper level trough and a surface short wave will begin to translate into Kansas. The short wave will induce some surface circulation and trigger even more wet weather Monday. The surface wave will deteriorate by the time it reaches Wichita, and the moisture will be left to wait for the strong upper trough to swing through the region and clear out the unsettled weather, and that won’t happen until late on Tuesday. It will be clearer, however, on Tuesday, so expect a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunnier, but still some stormy weather in the area, especially in the AM, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. High 77, Low 71
Tuesday – A few thunderstorms possible.High 80, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, some can be heavy late; mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 88, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow -Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 88, Low 72

The Weather Channel is going perplexingly chilly. They must be looking for a lot of rain. Speaking of a lot of rain