All posts by Ryan

Auburn, Alabama

Alabama day continues here at Victoria-Weather. Let’s take a look at Auburn, a little bit further south than Decatur.

At 115PM, CT, Auburn was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. Showers and thunderstorms were being seen generally south of Auburn and Montgomery, though Alexander City to the northwest was reporting a shower passing over the city.
Weak low pressure dominated the US east of the Mississippi, with a small wave over the Great Lakes, and a jet trough over northeastern Mexico. The trough over Mexico will become more important for southern Alabama as the weekend approaches. With the heat and humidity already in place, no trigger has been needed for afternoon thunderstorms. Don’t be surprised if, as the upper level low shifts slowly towards the Gulf Coast, thunderstorms in Auburn are stronger and better organized for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 83, Low 70
Saturday – Thunderstorms continue to be likely, High 86, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid High 81, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm, High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around High 90, Low 69
Saturday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 85, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 67
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely. High 86, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 69

Low temperature spreads are usually the result of clouds hampering a city’s ability to warm up. In Alabama, the high dew points are preventing things from cooling off. Here is a look at the radar, showing those thunderstorms south of Auburn.

Unstable

No, the title doesn’t allude to the mental state of Anthony and myself. It describes the summer time atmosphere in Decatur. As Anthony correctly described, the heat in the afternoons led to the development of showers and thunderstorms over Alabama, some of them clipping Decatur both Tuesday and Wednesday. As it turned out, the coverage of thunderstorms was enough that temperatures on Wednesday didn’t reach the 90s as had been initially forecast. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thanks in large part to out right-down-the-middle forecast on Tuesday.
Actuals: Tuesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 68
Wednesday – .12 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 86, Low 66

Grade: B

An update on Agatha

As you may have heard, the first name storm of the Pacific season, Agatha, has continued to cause incredible damage across Central America, namely because of the torrential rain that the area has seen with the system. Flooding, landslides and associated problems have led to the deaths of around 200 people, unfortunately. As I mentioned earlier this week, a weak storm can even be catastrophic for a place like Guatemala given the amount of rain that can be expunged.
Of course, the most amazing images for many are the enormous sinkhole that showed up in the center of Guatemala City, consuming anything on the surface above it. The water moving through the faulty sewer systems below eroded the sub surface rocks, which led to this sinkhole when the weight of soil above eventually collapsed. Impressive imagery, no doubt.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE is likely not as famous as it’s components. Perhaps you have heard of Dubai or Abu Dhabi, two of the emirates included in this union, which lies on the southern side of the Persian Gulf, between Qatar and Oman. As you could imagine, most of the country is extremely arid. Even where it isn’t it rarely rains. Along the shores of the Persian Gulf in those two more famous cities and other coastal areas, the humidity can be oppressive, owing to the triple digit temperatures and the access to the moisture of the Persian Gulf. Tropical systems are rare and often sheared apart by the mountains of the Oman Peninsula before they make their way into the the area. When they do, they provide more ran than many parts of the country typically seen in decades.
The United Arab Emirates has a National Center for Meteorology and Seismology. The Center has a very nicely animated home page. Note the drips of water running down the screen. Temperatures are running about 40 degrees over there, as you can see, with quite a bit of dust. Of course, that’s 40 degrees Celsius, or about 105 degrees. The site has everything you might need, from radar to satellite. The aviation weather button at the bottom of the screen takes you to some encoded data for airports not only in the UAE but some other nearby airports in Oman and Qatar. The nation is extremely affluent and home to many foreigners, so their site is decidedly well constructed and easy to navigate for the casual outsider such as ourselves.

May Forecaster of the Month

We’re already into June. Can you believe it? It seemed lie it took forever, that’s for sure. The summer months and the conversion to fall, that’s when Victoria-Weather tends to make up ground on other sites. Fortunately, we had a pretty good winter too, so we’ll be poised to win the forecaster of the year award as well. If I haven’t spoiled things already, here’s the news… Victoria-Weather was the May forecaster of the month, rather easily.

Agatha makes landfall

On the heels of yesterday’s hurricane season preview from Anthony, we have our first landfall of the Pacific season. Tropical Storm Agatha came ashore in Guatemala yesterday, and has already dropped enough rain to create a massive sinkhole in Guatemala City.
Storms in central America have a tendency to be major rain producers, given the abrupt rise in elevation along the coast. Often, the storms, even when not strong, expend all of their moisture in torrential and often tragic expedience. Flooding rains are almost always the greatest threat with storms in places like Guatemala. Here’s hoping Agatha doesn’t linger too long over Central America.

The Week Ahead 5/30/10-6/5/10

Wow, already into June. A few summer time forecasts for you next week.

Monday – Decatur, Alabama
Thursday – Auburn, Alabama; Road Trip from Benton Harbor, Michigan to Auburn
Friday – Hanford, California

Going somewhere for Memorial Day?

Well, the good news is, there shouldn’t be any widespread snow to slow down your travels! If you plan to be outside this weekend, know that there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout most of the southeast. We could be looking at severe storms for the Carolinas today, though for the most part, storms will be your garden variety thunderstorm activity.
A cold front sneaking through the center of the country will be setting off storms over the Upper Midwest, some that could be severe over the Dakotas southeast into northeastern Colorado tomorrow, then in the western Great Lakes by Sunday. By Sunday, the front will be developing its strongest storms, however, over Kansas and Oklahoma. Eventually, by Memorial Day most of the rain will be in the Ohio Valley, but the severe threat will be lessened.
A couple of waves in the northwest will mean rain in the northern Rockies through the weekend, coming back into Washington by Memorial Day, meaning Seattle wil be pretty wet to end the weekend. Expect a few showers as well over New England Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, but an otherwise manageable weekend.
It sounds pretty wet, but I have to say that since most everything on the map is moving and not stalled, almost everyone will be able to enjoy some pleasant weather for this coming holiday weekend, though perhaps not for the entire weekend.

Portland, Maine to Elmira, New York

We’re taking one day to travel through interior New England, driving from beautiful downstate Maine to beautiful downstate New York. The 462 miles of the trip are mostly not on major interstates, and we won’t move terribly swiftly. We will only inch along at 60mph, but it’s all right, given the scenery.


There is a cold front setting itself up through the mid Atlantic, kind of following an arcing path through that area. It’s going to set off some thunderstorms over eastern New York this afternoon, but will slowly drift out of our route tonight. We’re going to have to deal with some trailing showers, probably after we reach the Oneonta, New York area lasting into Elmira, but the rest of the drive will be quiet and very easily manageable. Enjoy the drive!

Some fun storm reports

Yesterday, there was some severe weather in the Front Range, Upper Midwest and in Florida. Nothing that was so bad that it led to death or injury, so I feel I can make light of some of the reports. For example, they had some hail western Texas.

2055 200 1 SE LARIAT PARMER TX 3432 10289 WINDSHIELD BUSTED OUT (LUB)

It done got busted out! The first number, by the way, is the time, the second is the size of the hail, in hundredths of an inch (so that is 2 inch diameter hail) followed by the location, including latitude and longitude. That in mind, check out the size of this hail:

2053 375 2 NW PROGRESS BAILEY TX 3430 10283 (LUB)

That’ll wake you up. Almost 4 inches in diameter! That’s about the size of a softball!

In new Mexico, of course, they aren’t as familiar with sports, so they compare their hail size to other objects:

0120 200 8 N BUCKEYE LEA NM 3292 10350 HEN EGG HAIL REPORTED 8 MILES NORTH OF BUCKEYE ON SH 238. (MAF)

This is why people have garages, hail up to 4 inches in diameter. It looks like an active day again in the High Plains, so there will be many more hail reports today, I’m sure. And it’s only May! Several more months of thunder to deal with, no doubt.