All posts by Ryan

Madera, California to Sheboygan, Wisconsin

Just one post today, and it’s a road trip, from the Central Valley of California to the shores of Lake Michigan in California. It’s a 4 day journey to cover the 2241 miles. That means we will pick up 536 miles on the first three days (the 4th will be longer) at a rate of 67mph. Here’s hoping for high pressure the whole way through!

DAY ONE

There is an area of low pressure over the Great Basin, but even this system will keep all of it’s associated moisture north of the route. Against our better instincts, we’ll actually head south to start, and that will take us through the dry desert, the Las Vegas metro and into beautiful southwestern Utah, near Toquerville which is fairly close to Zion National Park.

DAY TWO
The cold front associated with the low that will stay north of us will also not cause us much concern. Instead, we’ll be able to enjoy the magnificent scenery and hope the radiator in our car is functioning properly, as we’re going to fight the elevation changes all the way to Frisco, Colorado, which is east of Vail.

DAY THREE
We’re just going to keep on chasing that front right on out of the mountains. It will be rather dry and cool for the entire trip, and the sun will be shining brilliantly the whole day through. Expect to arrive in Wood River, Nebraska (near Grand Island) wondering what happened to all the mountains.

DAY FOUR
This is where we’re going to make our money. Lots of turns to pay attention to, and quite a bit of country roads. It will still be sunny, still be dry, still be cool. It’s going to be a good way to pull into Sheboygan.

Provo, Utah

There isn’t much to Utah when you get away from I-15. Um. Provo is along I-15.

At 354PM, MT, Provo was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies and very dry air. A dominant area of high pressure had moved into the area, forcing all the moisture south and east into Colorado and eventually on to the High Plains.
Monsoonal flow is expected to return Wednesday, particularly southeast of Provo, but moisture may be robbed by Tropical Storm Hermine which is going to move into Texas. Tomorrow will still be dry, thanks to the high pressure moving into the area, with cool overnight los and warm afternoon highs.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 40
Wednesday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 81, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 83, Low 45
Wednesday – Windy with times of sun and clouds. High 81, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 80, Low 40
Wednesday – Partly sunny and breezy High 83, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 82, Low 45
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 85, low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 79, Low 45
Wednesday – A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, High 82, Low 53

A look at the satellite shows the quiet skies over Utah.

Midland, Texas to Killeen, Texas

Texas is a big state. This is how a trip that stays in state can last over 5 hours. Expect a slow drive (56.7mph on average), as we’ll need to take quite a few state highways and county roads as we cover the 296 miles between the two cities.

Most of Texas will be in great shape tomorrow, and Midland and Killeen are no exceptions. An area of low pressure off the Mexican coast will prevent any moisture from filtering past the Texas coast, while the recent influx of cooler air will keep temperature more manageable than they have been all summer. It should be a happy drive to Killeen.

Fall arrives quickly

Altoona was a few degrees warmer than anyone expected. Nevertheless, when a cold front passed through town on Friday, temperatures did drop by 20 degrees or so. Behind the front, gusty winds on the order f almost 30mph were the story. Victoria-Weather, on the strength of our low temperature forecasting had the top results in Altoona, but the real winners were residents, as high temperatures never dropped below 70.
Actuals: Friday – Rain detected, not measured, High 90, Low 61
Saturday – High 70, Low 54

Grade: B

Midland, Texas

It’s a very Texas day here, and tomorrow will be no different as we road trip to Killeen. Hopefully this forecast goes better than our jaunt to Laredo.

At 1153AM, CT, Midland was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. An area of high pressure over the center of the country had worked it’s way south into West Texas.
A weak spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the southern Gulf of Mexico will organize itself into a very rainy system south of the Mexican border. This developing system will organize flow so as to rob moisture of a trough in the northern Rockies that would otherwise be the perfect type of system to inject some stormy weather for the area. Instead, expect sunny, dry weather for Midland for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 62
Monday – Sun continues High 95, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Hot. High 96, Low 64
Monday – Sunshine High 97, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Bright and sunny High 93, Low 64
Monday – Bright and sunny High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 57
Monday – Sunny, High 94, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Hgh 93, Low 60
Monday – Sunny, High 94, Low 66

I think those low temperatures are probably going to be the deciding factor in this one. I’m really surprised at the disparity. The satellite shows some dominant high pressure for the center of the country. Beautiful, but a little chilly.

UnLaredolike

I had mentioned the pressing area of cool high pressure and the threat for increasing clouds in Laredo, but I discounted the threat for rain. I was a fool! The rain did come, much to the chagrin of ourselves and Accuweather, but even more surprisingly, temperatures about 12 degrees cooler than expected came into town, thanks to those clouds on Friday. The Weather Service was the closest, though not great on this one.

The Week Ahead: 9/5/10-9/11/10

Football season is upon us, and we are moving into that cool fall weather. Forecasts will get a bit more challenging.

Sunday: Road Trip from Midland Texas to Killeen, Texas
Monday: Forecast for Provo, Utah
Wednesday: Forecast from Madera, California to Sheboygan, Wisconsin
Friday: Forecast in Montgomery, Alabama

Earl and Forecaster of the Month

We’re doing a quick combo post. Let’s get the important information out of the way first: Tropical Storm Earl has weakened significantly from his peak, but will continue to slide past southern New England and may still bring very strong winds to the Cape area and the islands of Massachusetts. In fact, Martha’s Vineyard is reporting 31kt winds at this time (about 35mph). A bullet was dodged, in how much Earl weekend, but we’re not entirely out of the woods yet. By Saturday evening, however, it looks like Earl will by sidling into Nova Scotia, leaving the rest of the world to breath a sigh of relief.
Well, now that we have that out of the way, and Earl is heading for Canada, I can tell you who gained the top spot for the month of August. IT was, as it has been all year, The Weather Channel, though it came down to the final forecast. They wouldn’t have won the top spot had they not dominated the Des Moines forecast, so thank you Des Moines.

Altoona, Pennsylvania

I feel like whenever I come to forecast for Altoona, I’m running way behind schedule (2AM is certainly behind). Today’ it’s a product of my schedule, and not laze like it usually is.

At 253AM, ET, Altoona was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Ahead of a front moving into the Mid-Atlantic, western Pennsylvania was unusually clear of fog. Altoona finds itself in a precarious position early this Friday morning, as Hurricane Earl sits off the Outer Banks of North Carolina and a low over the Great Lakes is introducing a fall-like cold front into the region.
The front will steadily march eastward towards Altoona through the day today, arriving in the late afternoon or early evening. After that, the rainy conditions will continue for much of the overnight into Saturday. Earl will merge with this low and surface pressure will drop, increasing a northwesterly wind for Altoona, serving to help temperatures drop precipitously to begin the weekend.
Today – Rain in the afternoon and evening, High 87, Low 61
Tomorrow – Morning rain and much cooler temperatures High 66, Low 54

TWC: Today – A few isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. High 84, Low 63
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds High 61, Low 51

AW: Today – Partly sunny and very warm High 88, Low 60
Tomorrow -Windy and cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 66, Low 51

NWS: Today – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy High 89, Low 64
Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 67, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers in the afternoons, High 82, Low 63
Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 64, Low 53

Accuweather, keeping Altoona dry. I will say… huh. Satellite shows that Accuweather might be mistaken.

Good for you, Optimists

Things looked bleak in Eugene. Most forecast a continued drear for the home of the University of Oregon, but it didn’t turn out so bad! There was no rain through the forecast period and temperatures climbed into the 70s each of the two days in question. Accuweather was the most optimistic of the monitored forecasters, and ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 50
Wednesday – High 76, Low 59

Grade: C