All posts by Ryan

October Forecaster of the Month

Yes, I know we are halfway through the month of November, but I still haven’t mentioned who won the October Forecaster of the Month award. It was a contentious race, right down to the end. The last forecast tipped the balance in the favor of The Weather Channel, who narrowly edged us for the top spot in October.

Hope the gas bill is paid

Forecasts of lows in the mid-20s were chilly enough, but on Saturday in Bismarck, clear overnight skies led to radiative cooling that was more effective than anticipated. The low on Saturday morning was 17 degrees, something almost nobody saw coming.A trace of some sort of precipitation came late Sunday, I assume it was snow because it has been snowing in Bismarck all day today. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thought it wasn’t terribly well executed, especially since the we were off by 11 degrees in total on the Day 1 of the forecast. Oh well, we’ll take it and do better next time.
Actuals: Saturday – High 34, Low 17
Sunday – Trace of precip, High 45, Low 24

Grade C

Lansing, Michigan to Sioux Falls, South Dakota

After I took my nice, relaxing road trip out to the west coast, here is a nice, relaxing road trip through the upper Midwest. It will take a day and a half to cover 819 miles. We’ll keep a pace of 64.2mph, thanks in large part to our time spent on I-80. Our pace will allow us to notch 514 miles on Monday, leaving a short little drive on Tuesday.

DAY ONE

Much of the upper Midwest made news this weekend for the big time snow totals, which came earlier in the season than is typically expected. Well, I am happy to inform you that this isn’t the expectation for this little adventure. As soon as we get to I-80 in the Chicagoland area, we should start to see some sunny skies as we pass through Illinois. Sunset comes early, so the sun will be in our eyes until the Quad Cities, then it will simply be beyond the horizon from then on. By the end of the day, a few clouds could start filtering back in. It shouldn’t be a terrible drive.

DAY TWO
A little pulse of moisture will pass along the Iowa/Minnesota border as we sleep, and some of those clouds will remain in place as we drive towards Omaha, then north into Sioux Falls. Still, there shouldn’t be anything by way of disruptive weather, though don’t count out the chance for a decorative snowflake or two as we approach our destination.

Last gasp of high pressure

In a couple days, Asheville will turn into a rainy, sopping mess. For the past couple of days, however, they have been a delightful, autumnal wonderland. Temperatures even peaked at 80 on Friday. Hard to argue with weather like that. V-W and Accuweather tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 70, Low 33
Saturday – High 68, Low 30

Grade: A

The Week Ahead 11/14/10-11/20/10

So we’re into the middle of November, and we will be criss-crossing the country with a boatload of road trips.

Sunday – Road Trip from Lansing, Michigan to Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Tuesday – Bellingham, Washington
Wednesday – Road Trip from Bellingham to Lafayette, Indiana
Thursday – Road Trip from Lafayette to Reading, Pennsylavania
Saturday – Charleston, South Carolina; Road Trip from Rome, Georgia to Charleston

Bismarck, North Dakota

I have a sneaking suspicion that this may be our first truly wintry forecast of the season. How does THAT make you feel?

At 1052AM, CT, Bismarck was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. They found themselves in the wake of a cold front that is getting new life from a developing low over Oklahoma. Along the cold front, which is gradually turning into a warm front, or even an inverted trough, a large shield of clouds looked to back its way into North Dakota.
The deep but fairly weak upper trough will instigate a northward motion from the low developing in Oklahoma. The system isn’t strong enough to advect it’s cold air, so it will have to use the temperatures in place already, which will likely mean a mix of rain and snow over Minnesota. Were this February, this would likely mean a dusting for Bismarck as well, but it will likely just mean an increase in clouds until late on Sunday, when a strong system over western Canada may begin to introduce some flurries to southern North Dakota.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 37, Low 25
Sunday -Mostly cloudy, with a flurry before midnight, High 41, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 43, Low 25
Sunday – Mix of sun and clouds. High 45, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 42, Low 20
Sunday – Partly sunny (late flurries) High 44, Low 18

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny high 41, Low 23
Sunday – Partly sunny High 39, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 21
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 40, Low 22

Temperatures are all over the place, and it will probably be dependent on what happens with the clouds. They are pretty evident on the satellite.

Asheville, North Carolina

Time for our first post vacation early in the day forecast. I don’t think that’s a big deal to anyone, not even me.

At 154PM, ET, Asheville was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies. High pressure dominated the east coast, allowing unseasonably warm temperatures to filter into the Southeast and even into the Carolina mountains.
An upper vortex was still dominating the central Plains and was too long waved to really advance on it’s own. A reinforcing jet over the Pacific Northwest will inch into the Rockies and begin to develop the next surface low over the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday. It appears, however, that the low will not be able to begin it’s eastward march by the end of the forecast period, and Asheville will enjoy another pair of nice, warm days.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 32
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 39
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 67, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and pleasant High 68 Low 33
Saturday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 69, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 69, Low 33
Saturday – Sunny High 69, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 33
Saturday – Sunny, High 69, Low 34

A look at the satellite shows that all the clouds are off shore.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Ahh, here we are, back to forecasting. I spent the past week out west, so of course we’re going to the east coast to forecast.

At 1053PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies. A weak ridge of high pressure was covering the east coast, leaving the entire region clear of any clouds or fog, on top of the dearth of precipitation. A system in Canada is bringing a few showers to the Northern Plains, and the strength of the associated jet suggests it will not fade quickly.
The jet streak is a part of am almost circular pattern that doesn’t show much proclivity for an eastward progression. Expect the system over the plains to lift north to the east. The overall flow of the jet will continue to rip through the same path it rides along, but will not have the same jet strength. The continued vorticity through the Ohio Valley will create redeveloping systems along the river, however none of it will be able to creep far enough east to be of influence for Lancaster.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 35
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 57, Low 35
Friday – Abundant sunshine. High 59, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with sunshine against a deep blue sky High 55, Low 32
Friday – Sunny and nice High 60, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 57, Low 24
Friday – Sunny High 61, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 57, Low 34
Friday – Sunny, High 61, Low 32

So, sunny skies. It took me forever to write this… I’m not really back in the swing of things yet. Here is the satellite.

I’m back

OK, I’m back from vacation, and we are up for a regular schedule again. I think for the rest of the week, we’ll go with the tail end of last weeks schedule, starting today (I’ll post a forecast for Lancaster tonight). Right now, I thought i would mention the results of Halloween’s forecast for Fayetteville, Arkansas. I don’t remember much about it, but I do know that temperatures ended up warmer than was forecast, probably because rain didn’t find it’s way into town as most expected. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel ended up with the top forecast. How about that for not even remembering it.
Actuals: November 1st – High 73, Low 46
November 2nd – Rain reported, not measured, High 62, Low 48

Grade: C