All posts by Ryan

Bridgeport, Connecticut

Back to Bridgeport on this fine Monday evening. Let’s rock and roll!

At 1152PM, ET, Bridgeport was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. A long boundary ranged from the central Rockies and tailed off as it swept into the Mid Atlantic. Later tonight, showers should develop along this boundary as an area of low pressure over the Rockies shifts into the high plains.
Models have been universally poor for the past week or so, however the basics are still valid. The extended stationary front south of the area will dissipate over the coming days, with a Canadian ridge shifting into New England. Some showers are a remote possibility Tuesday morning, though clearing is expected to move in by midweek.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers in the morning, then clearing. High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 58, Low 40
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 62, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 56, Low 42
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of sprinkles after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Sunny, High 65, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sprinkles High 57, Low 38
Wednesday – Sunny. High 65, Low 39

A look at the satellite shows that long stream of clouds headed towards Bridgeport. Good times to be had by all.

Way too dry

I had mentioned that Youngstown was going to see an area of high pressure stanch the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico north to their neck of the woods. As it so happens, this had a greater influence on the forecast than I had originally prognosticated. The low temperatures, unchecked by moisture on Saturday, plummeted to the upper 20s, and the cold front passed through yesterday completely dry. In the end, there was a three way tie at the top, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weather Bug.
Actuals: Saturday – High 63, Low 28
Sunday – High 66, Low 42

Grade B

Anchorage, Alaska

Anchorage, historically, has proven to be a nightmare to forecast for. I don’t think that will change.

At 853AM, Alaska time, Anchorage was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with cloudy skies. A broad area of low pressure crashing into western Alaska was sending an occluded front south through the Anchorage area, and substantial snows were being seen all around the Cook Inlet, however none of it had reached Anchorage by 9AM. With temperatures continuing to rise during the day, expect most activity in southern Alaska to be rain, though some snow my still mix in.
The system is winding itself up over the center of Alaska, and will continue to infuse moisture into Anchorage. Expect a snowy, rainy couple of days in Anchorage, with wind on the increase, though most of the moisture will be stunted by the high elevation of the Kenai Peninsula.
Tomorrow – Snow and rain, High 46, Low 32
Tuesday – Snow and rain continue, High 45, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain and snow in the morning will become intermittent in the afternoon. High 40, Low 34
Tuesday – Mix of rain and snow showers. High 40, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a bit of rain, mixed with snow early with little or no additional accumulation High 44, Low 33
Tuesday – A bit of morning snow; otherwise, remaining cloudy High 46, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – .Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 42, low 32
Tuesday – Snow likely, High 37, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Snow likely in the morning…then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 38, Low 28
Tuesday –
Snow likely. High 38, Low 28

I estimated the NWS forecast, because they didn’t put any actual values. Who knows with Anchorage. They could be totally accurate. Here is the Alaskan radar.

Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works!

Accuweather has… not been good for the past year and a half. Their two day forecasts are often divergent from the consensus, and they pay for it. Perhaps they are too busy drawing up hurricane forecasts for 2018. Today, however, their divergent forecast wasn’t so divergent, and verified as the best in Bridgeport! They correctly foresaw the cool Friday and slightly warmer Saturday, but most importantly, they tied with us for the top. Congratulations, Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – .23 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A

Weather a factor in death of Polish president

The president of Poland, and other Polish officials were killed in a plane crash earlier today as he head into western Russia to honor the Katyn Massacre, which occurred 70 years ago during World War 2. Early accounts are that the cause of the crash is the dense fog permeating much of eastern Europe. The pilot, who likely couldn’t see the airport when landing, came in too low and clipped trees ahead of the runway, taking the plane down.
Much of eastern Europe is susceptible to dense fog for about half the year. The continent is surrounded by water, with warm water in the Mediterranean apt to filter north through the Adriatic and Black Seas much as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico finds its way into the center of the US. The continent is at a cooler latitude than most of the United States, and the cooler temperatures coupled with the higher humidity lead to often dense fog. When the area is ensconced in high pressure, wind is unable to mix out the fog, and it can be foggy for days if there is no injection of dry air. This is the situation presently in western Russia. Typically, it is not as grave a concern for Europeans, but in this instance, the Polish nation was met with tragedy.

The Week Ahead: 4/11/10-4/17/10

What a scattershot week this week. We’re covering as much geographic territory as possible, it appears.

Sunday – Anchorage, Alaska
Monday – Bridgeport, Connecticut
Wednesday – Forecast in Jefferson City, Missouri
Thursday – Road Trip from Jefferson City, Missouri to Gainesville, Georgia

Youngstown, Ohio

After all that Anthony time, I am officially back in the saddle for about 10 straight days. I’m going to get started today with Youngstown.

At 1233PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with light snow. A weak lake effect front had swept into the area in the last half hour, bringing the light snow from Cleveland southeast to Youngstown and dropping the temperature by about 5 degrees. An area of low pressure over Eastern Canada was introducing northerly flow, and the thaw of the Lake Erie ice has introduced the necessary moisture.
Fortunately, the pattern is more progressive than it has been over the winter, and a jet will establish itself over the Great Lakes, allowing high pressure to develop over the southeast, cutting off any additional moisture. Still, an area of low pressure over Canada will push a cold front through eastern Ohio Sunday evening, however with moisture stymied, expect only light showers to pass through on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 35
Sunday – Late afternoon showers, High 63, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 65, Low 34
Sunday – Few showers. High 64, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer High 62, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 65, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers High 65, Low 40

A look at the radar shows the light flurries in the area.

March Forecaster of the Month

Our month began rather haphazardly, with the devious hacking from China that took us down for a week, but in the end, it turned into a neck and neck race to see who could claim supremacy as the top forecaster. In the end, it was The Weather Channel who was able to edge out their competition, to become the Forecaster of the Month

Nicer than SoCal

When Anthony put together his forecast for Rome on Sunday, he mentioned that I was off in sunny southern California. it wasn’t exactly WARM southern California. Temperatures in Rome reached the upper 80s for each day of the forecast period, making it an all together toasty experience in northern Georgia to begin April. Accuweather came through with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 87, Low 52
Tuesday, High 88, Low 50

Grade: A

Niger

Now that I am back, I figure I should probably write something. Nothing better, for my money, than a look at a far flung spot on the other side of the world, like, say, Niger, an arid nation in the the interior of northwestern Africa. Most of the nation lies in the Sahara, and is characteristically hot, dry and dusty. The lone exception is the southeastern corner, by the capital Niamey, where the Niger river flows. It’s not technically a desert in that corner, but it certainly is rather dry across the entirety of the country. They are represented in the World Meteorological Organization by the Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale. Their website is barebones, in French, and seemingly lacking in real time weather data, so I can’t provide a lot of additional details beyond introducing you to the organization.