All posts by Ryan

Snow for Maine?

This is one of those times that I doubt the models. Well, I doubtED the models, but late day runs have come to believe what I believe. Upstate Maine is in for some snow tonight. Earlier model runs called for temperatures with lows in the upper 30s. As of right now, the GFS model is calling for a low of 32 in Caribou, Maine, which is, I think, more likely. Why? Well, take a look at the current observations for Southern Quebec and Maine.

Looking at the convergent winds, the front looks like it is along the Maine/New Brunswick border right now. Note how in eastern Maine, the temperatures have already dropped to below 40, and are at 37 in Quebec City. The back end of the low is still working with a lot of moisture, note the light rain north of Quebec. But it’s only 1030, so those temperatures will only be compelled to drop futher. If that moisture lingers, and Caribou (and Houlton, for that matter) see some clear skies soon to help temperatures drop more rapidly ahead of a trailing band of precip, they certainly could see some snow before sunrise tomorrow.

Unexplained phenomenon

The temperatures in Redding were wildly different than the common consensus. The high on Tuesday peaked at 90, but the high on Wednesday was 76. The enormously warm temperature is easily explained by the 10mph north wind, which induced some solid downsloping. Why was it so cool on Wednesday though? I have no freaking clue. Anthony’s forecast was the best of the bunch, but that really doesn’t say much, unfortunately.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 46
Wednesday – High 76, Low 48

Grade D

Beware the SuperTyphoon

Recent news from the Philippines is not good. Supertyphoon Megi plowed into the island nation and is poised to make a similar impact on China by Saturday. Given the enormous strength of the storm, the numbers are actually somewhat heartening, if still very sad. Megi has killed 19 and left a quarter of a million homeless. Expect the numbers to climb as reports continue to roll in, however when you realize how strong a typhoon must be to be considered a supertyphoon, you begin to realize how lucky the Philippines really are, if you want to say that.
Megi is among the strongest Pacific typhoons of all time, in terms of central pressure. To be classified as a supertyphoon, Megi needed sustained winds of at least 132mph, which would make it a strong category 4 hurricane. Megi’s highest speeds were estimated at 145mph for 10 minutes and 190mph for 1 minute. This is stronger than Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew, which made their landfall in the United States, a nation with infinitely better infrastructure, but has caused fewer fatalities than both of them. The storm made it’s landfall on the most populous of the Philippine islands, though it did so in a part that was less populated than the rest. No matter what the explanation, Filipinos should count their blessings.

A chill to the air

The air has a distinct autumnal feel in eastern Wisconsin at long last. It took until mid-October for the typically fall-like temperatures to return, but they finally did in Green Bay, just in time for our forecast. Clearer than expected skies (for some, anyways) meant temperatures were free to dip to the 30s each of the last two mornings in Green Bay. With the slight chance for some drizzle in the area, many kept temperatures warmer Monday morning, expecting some blanketing clouds. Didn’t happen, obviously, and Victoria-Weather ended up nabbing the top forecast spot.
Actuals: Monday – High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – High 59, Low 35

Grade: B

Introducing Off The Grid!

We often focus on major (or notable) cities here at Victoria Weather, in order to capture a wide variety of spectators. But what about those areas that are less notable, hidden from the eyes of many or otherwise off the grid. We will be trying something new here in The Weather Blog. Occasionally we will look off the beaten path to reach areas of the backwoods, National Parks and other popular (even unpopular) domestic and international destinations, where forecasts are often either hard to come by or nonexistent.

Weather forecasts Off The Grid (OTG) are typically doomed due to the lack of observational data and thus poor model data. This is often the case within mountainous or wilderness areas, where terrain features change drastically over small horizontal distances and observational data (weather stations) can be over 150 miles apart. With that being said, detailed forecasts, while often flawed due to the aforementioned conditions, are possible in areas Off The Grid with an understanding of how terrain and other geographical features affect the weather.

In our first edition of OTG we will travel to one of America’s most iconic National Parks; Yellowstone. Established in 1872 as Americas first National Park, it is home to the world’s largest geyser (Steamboat Geyser; hurling a boiling column of water over 30 stories tall) and the world’s largest volcanic caldera (Yellowstone Supervolcano, which measures about 34 miles by 45 miles).

Grand Prismatic Spring, Yellowstone National Park

For this forecast we will focus on Yellowstone Lake, which sits at the center of the park at 7,732ft above sea level.Clear skies will be the name of the game over the next few days, as weak high pressure remains in place through Thursday. High pressure begins to retreat on Friday as a system pushes into the Pacific Northwest. This may cause a few high clouds to stream over the lake on Saturday; otherwise, dry conditions will be expected for much of Saturday as well. Light showers look to filter into the park Saturday evening as the system over the Pacific Northwest drifts into the Great Basin. By Sunday morning showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected to envelop the lake and continue intermittently throughout the day.

Wednesday: Sunny. High 54, Low 23 .
Thursday: Sunny. High 56, Low 24.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High 55, Low 21.
Thursday: Sunny. High 56, Low 22.

AW: Wednesday: Sunny. High 60, Low 16.
Thursday: Sunny. High 57, Low 17.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 57, Low 28.
Thursday: Sunny. High 58, Low 25.

WB: Wednesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 26.
Thursday: Sunny. High 54, Low 24.

OTG Rating (1-10): >>4<< While sitting miles from any major city, Yellowstone Lake’s northern and western fringes can be accessed via highway from any direction. With nearly 3,000,000 visitors a year, it can feel like city grid lock on the weekends.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

We’re off to the land of cheese, where the Packers just allowed a Dolphins touchdown. Uh oh, Green Bay!

At 153PM, CT, Green Bay was reporting a pleasant temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies and a westerly breeze. The air was very dry in eastern Wisconsin, as an area of high pressure was bulding behind a weak, dry cold front that was making a hard charge into New England.
A weak upper wave was being reflected more strongly in the mid levels, which was leading to some light showers and a lot of clouds for the upper Midwest and high plains. Those clouds will filter into Wisconsin over the next few hours. A cut off area of low pressure will stay out west, and a weak directional trough associated with a Canadian jet will swing south of Green Bay with little consequence The stronger northerly jet will begin to ridge and strengthen, with the weak troughing moving to the east. This is a complicated way of saying that there may be some clouds tomorrow morning, with clearing weather expected on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, then clearing, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine. High 59, Low 40
Tuesday – Plenty of sun. High 61, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and limited sun High 56, Low 40
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 56, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 55, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 38

Looks like pleasant autumnal weather for Green Bay. A look at the satellite shows all those clouds moving into the Upper Midwest.

Introducing Allan Persons

I have exciting news on behalf of Victoria-Weather and The Weather Blog. Starting this Tuesday, Anthony and I will welcome a new writer to the fold, Allan Persons. He is a meteorologist like myself and Anthony, and like Anthony, he is a graduate of St. Cloud State University here in Minnesota.
Allan has a special interest in hiking and mountain climbing, having climbed Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania earlier this year. He will bring his expertise in that arena to his forecasts, which will focus on the needs of the every day outdoorsman.
So, please, welcome Allan to the fold, I have every confidence that he will do a great job!

And then the bottom dropped out

Showery conditions were the norm for Benton Harbor to end the week, with Friday being the rainier of the two days. The real surprise was the strength of a cold front that swept through on Wednesday, and more specifically what it did to overnight lows. Temperatures dropped to the 30s for lows in each of those days, considerably cooler than anyone had anticipated. V-W and Accuweather had the top spot for the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 63, Low 37
Friday – .09 inches of rain, High 59, Low 35

Grade: D

Palm Coast, Florida to Punta Gorda, Florida

It’s just a short little intra-state adventure as we head from the Atlantic to Gulf Coasts of Florida, covering 215 miles over 4 hours and change. That means a pace of 52mph, because we’re not exactly taking interstaes on this trip. Let’s see Florida!

The drive across Florida will be beset by a few obstacles. The first will be the sun, which will undoubtedly be in our eyes. The second is the warmth, which will mean the windows should be rolled down, making it difficult to hear the radio. Then, of course, is the drive through Orlando, and the inevitable desire to stop at Disney World. So, pretty tough drive to Punta Gorda.