All posts by Ryan

Too many storms

I suspected that Cleveland may be in good shape over the forecast period, avoiding any real severe weather due to the timing of the thunderstorms. Well, instead the storms came through in the middle of the day on Sunday and left a swath of damage in the Cleveland metro. There was a small tornado up in Ashtabula, but most of the damage was the result of straight line winds. The airport in Cleveland reported winds of over 40mph in the early evening. The Weather Channel, as seems to be usual lately, had the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 93, Low 73
Monday – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade: B

Morristown, Tennessee to Sioux City, Iowa

Remember how much fun we had yesterday with the day long road trip? Well, let’s try to double the fun with a two day trip from Tennessee to Iowa. It’s going to cover 1034 of the flattest miles you may ever see. All that travel will be done at a pace of 62.8mph, and we will get to shy of half way after the first day, covering a mere 502 miles. I’m ready. Are you?

DAY ONE

The day may start a little slow for a variety of reasons. First, it will take an hour or so to get from Morristown to the interstate in Corbin, Kentucky were we can really start to drive. Second, the back side of a system moving through tonight may leave some memories in the form of some early morning showers for the Smokeys. By the time we are on the interstate, however, we will be able to drive quickly free of lingering showers and restrictive speed limits. We will end the day in Mansfield, Illinois, between Urbana and Bloomington.

DAY TWO
Day two, Wednesday, will be a very easy drive. The interstates are good, the roads curve every once in a while to keep you engaged. Other than that do, it’s a good day for a road trip, with sunny skies and warming temperatures. Roll the window down and enjoy the open road on our way into beautiful Sioux City.

Sioux City, Iowa

Sioux City has been getting raked over the coals the past few days, but finally it appears they are clearing out, ready to enjoy some much better weather.

At 152PM, CT, Sioux City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies. A long, low amplitude ridge was shifting into the center of the country. It wasn’t inhibiting much because of it’s strength, but there was little at the surface to kick up showers or storms.
The presence of Tropical Storm Alex in the Bay of Campeche will also aid in capping any thunderstorm development for the next several days by redirecting Gulf moisture away from the typical corridor up the Mississippi. A weak trough will begin to move in late on Wednesday, however it will only serve to knock down temperatures by a couple degrees and kick up some winds as there will be no moisture to work with.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny with increasing winds High 87, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 83, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunshine. High 87, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Sunshine High 85, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 82, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny. High 84, Low 58

It’s certainly going to be a relief for residents of Siouxland not to have to deal with another torrential downpour tonight. A look at the satellite tells that, in fact, it is quiet in Sioux City.

I never did care for New Mexico

Some of the worst forecasts I have ever seen came from New Mexico. Many moons ago, there was a forecast out for Albuquerque where the best one was a mere 44 degrees in error off from the proper forecast. Perhaps we should count ourselves lucky that this forecast in Las Cruces was only off by 20 or so degrees. Despite calm winds and clear skies, the temperature failed to get above 90 on Saturday, while clear skies allowed temperatures to drop to 60 degrees on Sunday morning. Those two factors led to some very sad forecasters. Sidebar: I can’t figure out why Las Cruces reported an observation every 20 minutes. Everyone I know, unless there is ongoing weather, reports on the hour. Quite peculiar, New Mexico. Despite my complaints, Victoria-Weather had the top ‘cast for Las Cruces.
Actuals: Saturday, High 89, Low 71
Sunday, High 96, Low 60

Grade: D

Cleveland, Ohio to Morristown, Tennessee

And here we are, with another 1 day journey. Just an extra half hour tacked on to the end of our typical 8, but it will be through the beautiful Smokey Mountains, so who are we to complain? It’s a 520 mile journey, which equates to our travel coming at a rate of 61.9mph. Shall we?


I’m not going to mince words. This drive is going to suck. We’re going to be following a cold front as we head from Cleveland to Morristown. In the morning, it will likely be a general rainy type of precipitation, with a stroke of lightning intermittently lighting up the sky. By about 1 in the afternoon, three hours in, the thunderstorms will really ramp up. The heaviest of the wet weather will come between Parkersburg and Charleston, West Viriginia as we start to come into the mountains, which will only help the development of soaking thunderstorms. Between Beckley, West Virginia and Abingdon, Virginia, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a break in the rain, but as we swing back southwest into Tennessee, some showers and storms will again be possible, though not as strong as we will have seen earlier in the day.

Foiled by sprinkles

Only one outlet had the thundershowers properly forecast in Lewiston, Idaho. One little guy snuck into town in the early afternoon on Friday and brought a trace of rain, and the Weather Channel had it in their forecast. TWC’s correct precip forecast gave them the victory, as it knocked V-W out of the top spot. Blast!
Actuals: Friday – Trace of rain, High 84, Low 59
Saturday – High 83, Low 56

Grade: B

Cleveland, Ohio

Finally, we’re moving out of the Mountain Time Zone for today’s forecast. Perhaps by issuing this forecast, we can convince Lebron James to stay in town.

At 1151, AM, ET, Cleveland was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A southwesterly wind was ensuring a warm wind ahead of a stationary boundary in southern Ontario. Some showers were beginning to show up over western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania, and the threat was there for some showers and thunderstorms, some heavy, this afternoon.
A weak upper level trough will gather itself over the northern Plains after having dug deep into the Rockies, which should lead to a more well established and easily defined system. It will also become more likely that the stronger showers and thunderstorms follow the jet stream, which is to the north of Cleveland. The hot humid air will still touch off a few thunderstorms as the system passes through Michigan into Canada. Sunday night into Monday morning, the cold front associated with this system will work it’s way through town, another bit of luck, as this will keep the threat for severe storms to a minimum. A subsequent cool flow off of Lake Erie will keep things pleasant during the day on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, warm. High 88, Low 71
Monday – Early AM Showers and storms, cooler, High 83, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 90, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. High 83, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun, hot and humid with a thunderstorm, becoming breezy in the afternoon High 90, Low 68
Monday – Clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; breezy High 83, Low 69 (non standard)

NWS: Tomorrow – chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 87, Low 68
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy High 81, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny…warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 68
Monday – Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms High 81, Low 70

And now a look at the radar to show you were those scattered showers are.

The Week Ahead 6/27/10-7/03/10

Taking us up to the holiday weekend with another week away from the East Coast.

Sunday – Road Trip from Cleveland, Ohio to Morristown, Tennessee.
Monday – Sioux City, Iowa; Road Trip from Morristown to Sioux City
Wednesday – Jefferson City, Missouri
Friday – San Jose, California
Saturday – Fargo, North Dakota

Las Cruces, New Mexico

I told you I would b earlier with my post today! Here we are, off to southern New Mexico.

At 1150 AM, MT, Las Cruces was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. The dewpoint was at 46 degrees, suggesting the dry line was well to the east. A weak upper level trough was producing an similarly weak surface low over the 4 corners. Flow across the Gulf was drawing north towards a stronger feature along the northern tier, and Las Cruces was able to stay dry.
The weak trough will recede north and help development along the norther tier. Overnight tonight if any moisture can find it’s way to southern New Mexico it will likely go up as a thunderstorm. After that, expect mostly sunny skies and hot weather, the typical summer time fare for Las Cruces.
Tomorrow – Early AM showers, then sunny, High 97, Low 72
Sunday – Hot and partly cloudy, High 96, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 95, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 99, Low 71
Sunday – Partly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon High 97, Low 68
Sunday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy High 98, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning…then partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 101, Low 68
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 100, Low 68

Weatherbug once again has some matching problems. Pretty totasting in Las Cruces, though.

Lewiston, Idaho

Apologies for the late night. I’ll try to get things out earlier in the future, you know, so I can go to bed.

At 1156PM, MT, Lewiston was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. An area of weak low pressure aloft dominated the southwest, and an exit region of that trough had itself established over the High Plains and Front Range of Montana. Lewiston found itself safely behind the wet weather, though not in the most stable of environments.
The pattern will be slow to change, as a strong jet pattern is not in the offing. The little change that does come however, will be in the form of improving weather. Flow moving across the Rockies into low pressure over Montana will keep things partly to mostly cloudy tomorrow, however expect sunnier skies and a degree or two more warmth in town for the coming days.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly Sunny, High 82, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 79, Low 60
Saturday – Sunshine High 82, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sunshine High 76, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 81, Low 63
Saturday – Sunny, High 82, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. High 69, Low 58
Saturday – Sunny High 72, Low 51

Weatherbug’s text definitely doesn’t match the numbers they have displayed. I wonder what’s going on there. They say, for example, high on Friday’s will be low 70s, and upper 70s on Sunday, then they put those numbers up. Odd. Here is the satellite, showing a quiet Idaho chimney