All posts by Ryan

Tallahassee, Florida

We’re forecasting for the capital of Florida. Fun fact, it’s actually warmer here in Minneapolis than it is in Tallahassee.

At 653PM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. A mostly stationary boundary has existed along a line from southern Arkansas towards Tampa for most of the day, and is continuing to touch of thunderstorms off the coast south of Tallahassee and to the west, generally west of Panama City.
An area of low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will traverse the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple 18 hours or so and will lie south of Tallahassee by tomorrow. Fortunately, this will put Tallahassee in a perfect position, with flow becoming off shore, deadening the threat for showers and storms. The system, which does have a slight chance of becoming a tropical storm, will stay well south of Tallahassee as it passes through the Gulf, which will allow the Floridian capital a rare 48 hours of dry air.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 74
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 97, Low 76
Tuesday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 96, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 97, Low 75
Tuesday – A blend of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm; hot High 97, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot High 97, Low 74
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm High 95, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms, High 97, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76

I’m a little cooler than the rest. Humidity and noth winds should keep temperatures from climbing too terribly high. The radar shows thunderstorms off to the west.

Greenville, South Carolina

Up into the Piedmont to end out week today.

At 1153AM, ET, Greenville was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with clear skies. A persistent boundary, borne both of a weak surface low just off the coast and the moisture of the Gulf of Mexico sat just south of the Greenville-Spartanburg area and was generating some clouds along the Georgia border and keeping dew points a little bit lower than sites touth of the boundary.
The weak system will actually do enough to keep moisture south of Greenville for today. The effect of Tropical Storm Colin in the western Atlantic will actually assist in shifting the boundary south, further away from Greenville, but the absence of an east-westboundary will allow for a weak north-south wave to ripple into the Piedmont and bring the threat for an isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon.
Tomorrow- Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 71
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms, High 94, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 73
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 90, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later; warm High 95, Low 72
Monday – Partly sunny and remaining warm High 94, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 72
Monday – slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 91, Low 73
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 94, Low 73

Wow, not often Weatherbug and the Weather Service have different precipitation forecast. Here is the latest satellite.

A lucky few degrees

It’s a dangerous thing, trusting the models unquestioningly. In mountainous locations, I wouldn’t dare try to divine the temperatures out west without the raw numbers given by models, but I noticed that in Wenatchee, the models had been trending cooler for the past several days, so I reflected that in my forecast. Sure enough, Victoria-Weather had the best forecast. It was only better by a degree or two every day, but that eventually added up to an easy win.
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 61
Saturday – High 88, Low 59

Grade: C

The Week Ahead, 8/8/10 – 8/14/10

You will definitely notice a distinct cluster to our forecasts this week. It’s Southeast Week at The Weather Blog!

Sunday – Tallahassee, Floriday; Road Trip from Greenville, South Carolina to Tallahassee
Thursday – Jackson, Mississippi; Road Trip from Springfield, Missouri to Jackson
Friday – Chattanooga, Tennessee

Feature Forecast: Jon Slater, Fox 25 News, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Surprise! We have a very special guest, Jon Slater from Oklahoma City, weather capital of the world who has been kind enough to give us a hand with a two day forecast for his home city. Without further ado, here is Mr. Slater!

I’m Jon Slater the meteorologist for FOX 25 News @9 and 10pm in Oklahoma City. I’m a weather fanatic and have been my entire life! Growing up near New York City I developed a passion for the weather at a very early age. I spent most of my childhood watching the weather out my bedroom window. My parents thought I was crazy! By the time I was a freshman in High School I new I wanted to study the weather and become a meteorologist. Went to the University of Oklahoma to get my degree in meteorology because the school is located smack dab in the middle of Tornado Alley. After graduation in 1987 I decided to try TV weather and 23 years later I’m still doing this stuff.

Here’s the forecast for OKC….

After 5 days in a row of 100 or hotter weather a weak Summer cold front is moving in tonight. Expect a few scattered t’storms with a low near 77 and winds becoming light and variable.

On Thursday a very small break in the high heat. Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of t’storms highs near 95 with a north wind at 10 mph. Yes, 95 is a cool down for us!

Then the extreme heat comes right back for Friday with sunny skies and highs near 98.

Over the weekend look for sizzlin sunshine with highs near 101 both Saturday and Sunday. The heat wave continues all next week too!

Stay cool, Jon

Thanks Jon! It’s always interesting to hear the perspective of another meteorologist. I wonder how hard it would have been to get a hold of him during May?

(Thursday’s scheduled forecast for Louisville will be moved to Friday)

Wenatchee, Washington

I had to look up Wenatchee when doing this forecast too. It’s nestled into the eastern slope of the Cascades, if you are ever told you need to go to Wenatchee.

At 955AM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. Warm temperatures and a rash of thunderstorms in the Cascades has led to flash flood was being issued for the area. There is a weak upper level trough in the area, though with no jet support it appeared as though it would not be able to develop anything at the surface. Expect mostly sunny conditions for Wenatchee each of the next two days.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 62
Friday – Sunny, High 91, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. Hot. High 95, Low 67
Friday – Sunshine. High 92, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot High 93, Low 65
Friday – Sunny High 91, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, High 96, Low 65
Friday – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 97, Low 64
Friday – Mostly Sunny, High 93, Low 64

Weatherbug sure had a lot to say there, didn’t they? A look at the satellite shows some puffs over the Cascades that are likely producing a bit of rain.

The definition of isolated

For Monday, everyone had the threat for thunderstorms in their forecast for Bismarck. I had even mentioned that they would be isolated in my forecast. On Monday evening, one cell popped up northwest of Bismarck, taking with it a tornado warning and rolled right through North Dakota’s capital. There were 40mph winds at the airport, and the city received a quick quarter inch of rain. The forecasts were tightly clustered, but The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us.
Actuals: Monday – .25 inches of rain in a heavy thunderstorm, High 86, Low 65
Tuesday – High 83, Low 62

Grade B

Kuwait

Our trip around the world takes us to Kuwait, a nation that might fly under the radar for most Americans were it not for the first Gulf War in 1991. It lies wedged between Iraq and Saudi Arabia at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. As one should expect in that part of the world, Kuwait is in the middle of a desert, and as such it suffers through a long, dusty and hot summer. Kuwait does lie far enough north that their winters can be a bit chilly thanks to the dry air that blows in from the northwest in the right environments, The get most of their rain in the winter thanks to the systems that can actually sneak into the area.
The Kuwait Meteorological Center is the source for Kuwaitis to get local forecasts from local forecasters. The site is definitely utilitarian. Many countries use their sites more as advertisement for their meteorologists and their operations, but you’ll find none of that at the KMC. Instead, they have all the things you need. They have forecasts, satellite, radar and even a surface analysis. You don’t often see these in a prominent position on a map anymore, and it’s greatly appreciated by meteorologists like myself. They don’t really share much about the organization but they do offer a cool option embed data from their forecast on your site. It’s the most free with their information I have seen from any country yet.

A rash of new weather sites

In the past year, first Accuweather then The Weather Channel and Weatherbug all came out with new websites. For the most part, they are all essentially the same, beset with the same problems.
– Somewhat frustrating navigation. Why can’t I type in Minneapolis, Minnesota without being asked if I mean Minneapolis, Kansas? Minneapolis, MN works, but Minneapolis, Minnesota can’t be found. Or I could get sent to the airport. It seems like this should have been worked out many moons ago, but only smaller sites like Weather Underground have this figured out. It would be nice to be able to click a map for my location as well. Why did the Weather Service figure this out, but not these corporate behemoths?
– Screen to screen load times. These are all commercial endeavors, so they need their ads, but many of them have more complex adds than forecast displays, and those ads coat most of the screen. No site is worse than Accuweather which occasionally has full screen ads, though TWC’s roll out ads and Weatherbug’s sheer quantity makes those sites annoying as well.
-Each site has there own problems as well, of course. The Weather Channel still doesn’t have an easy way to get a simple text discussion, all symbols and Java script. They also don’t have hourly forecasts beyond 36 hours. Accuweather would probably be my favorite of these sites if it wasn’t for the load problems. It’s very slow to bring up whatever forecast you want to get too, say if you get into a city and want to look at the extended forecast. You can click on the days in Weatherbug’s extended forecast to get to an hourly forecast. This is a cool feature, but I only found out about it accidentally. It makes me wonder what other features I’m missing there.

These sites are all new, and their bugs and quirks will eventually be worked out. It’s also possible that the load times are because my computer was purchased in 1986. Progress.

Bad luck

A small little dash of rain, that’s all it took to throw forecasts off for everyone. Fort Wayne had a trace of rain reported late yesterday. They didn’t even endure whatever caused it long enough to show up in observations, only in rain gauges. Nevertheless, everyone knew about the possibility, but nobody truly took it seriously. The top forecast on this occasion went to Weatherbug who had a fairly exceptional temperature forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 85, Low 61
Monday – Trace of rain, High 86, Low 65

Grade B