All posts by Ryan

Benton Harbor, Michigan

For the first time since September, the forecast is for a site where something is actually going on!

At 1229pm, ET, Benton Harbor was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with light rain. A cold front had just passed through town, with wind reorienting to become northerly. The leading edge of the heavy rain lay from Lansing to Michigan City, Indiana, so the the steady march of the boundary suggested that the backfill currently in Benton Harbor will be short lived, and the town would clear out nicely this afternoon, though there was a batch of heavier rain over southern Lake Michigan to contend with first.
The upper level trough associated with the system is strong and is digging deeply into the east. This means that the system, after it departs from southern Michigan, will develop intensely and rapidly as the supporting trough aloft strengthens. A ripple at the back edge of the jet will mean some instability across Michigan, and showers will stream through the Lower Peninsula on Friday. In the meantime, expect a more seasonable feel to the air.
Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy, with showers late, High 62, Low 44
Friday – Chance of showers, mostly east of town, High 58, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds (late PM rain). High 63, Low 45
Friday – Morning showers High 58, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 45
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a passing shower; breezy High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, High 62, Low 49
Friday – Partly sunny, High 61, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy a 30 percent chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 47
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 43.

Once again, the Weather Service and Weatherbug are straying from the common consensus. We’ll see how that works out for them. Here is the radar, showing things sliding out of town. (The radar image is from about an hour later than was described in the forecast. Technical flaws and all).

I’ll never understand the mountains

Bend and Redmond Oregon are 17 miles apart. Had the forecast been for Redmond, it would have been a dogfight between ourselves, The Weather Channel and Acuweather. For whatever reason, it was 10 degrees warmer in Bend, and that handed the award to Weatherbug, who nabbed the top spot easily.
Actuals: Monday – High 57, Low 37
Tuesday – High 66, Low 32

Grade: B

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Home of the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa is perhaps downtrodden after they lost to South Carolina, the first lost for the Crimson Tide in 18 games. Perhaps the weather will be better.

At 1153AM, CT, Tuscaloosa was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with sunny skies. Like much of the country, a persistent area of high pressure was leading to some near record warmth across the state of Alabama, and with a return flow setting up over the Gulf, humidity will begin to crawl back up into uncomfortable territories as well.
A weak area of low pressure that has taken a south-north path through the Plains will now make an easterly turn from Kansas and Oklahoma. Interacting with the rising humidity in Alabama, expect a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow, however the wave is expected to be short enough that the system will pass quickly through town, and the pendant front will follow the jet, which is well south of the coast, meaning any lingering threat for wet weather will remain over the Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms possible early, High 81, Low 59
Wednesday – Clearing and sunny, High 83, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 84, Low 56
Wednesday – Mainly sunny High 83, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 60
Wednesday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm High 82, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 58
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny High 83, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 59
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers, High 84, Low 56

It appears some of the forecasters aren’t as optimistic about clearing skies.

Bend, Oregon

Forecasting in Oregon tonight, but the interior part of the state, which is unlike the Pacific Northwest you are used to, I assure you.

At 915PM, PT, Bend was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with overcast conditions. A sliver of clouds trailing a boundary in the Pacific Northwest was just clipping the Bend area. The system is going to be ushered out of the area quickly by a building ridge over the Northwest.
A fairly strong jet is going to arc north into British Columbia for the coming days, allowing for some warming, sunny skies for Bend, meaning the next couple of days will be rather enjoyable.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 58, Low 31
Tuesday – Sun continues, High 69, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 58, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 60, Low 30
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 68, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 59, Low 34
Tuesday – Sunny High 67, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, cooler, with patchy fog in the morning, High 58, Low 37
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 35

The Weather Service and Weatherbug going astray from the cool overnight forecasts.

Chilly mornings

I brought the temperature up a little bit in York for the Friday morning forecast, because that seemed to be what the rest of the world opined. Oops. Temperatures instead rattled down to below 40 on Friday morning, much cooler than anyone thought. On the heels of their topping us all in September, Accuweather took the top spot in York.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 39
Saturday – High 77, Low 46

Grade B

September Forecaster of the Month

It’s not often that we take a whopping 9 days to get into the forecaster of the month, but as they say, good things come to those who wait. Boy, has Accuweather waited a long time, since April. This is the first time since May that the Weather Channel didn’t win the award, and TWC ended up with a pretty bad month, truth be told. anyways, congrats to Accuweather, good effort and all that.

The Week Ahead 10/10/10-10/16/10

A regular week is in store for us, including forecasts spanning the country and the worlds shortest road trip.

Sunday – Bend, Oregon
Monday – Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Wednesday – Benton Harbor, Michigan
Friday – Punta Gorda, Florida; Road Trip from Palm Coast, Florida to Punta Gorda

York, Pennsylvania to Jonesboro, Arkansas

High pressure is beginning to become the norm across the country, which bodes well for our 979 mile, two day trip from Pennsylvania to Arkansas. As always, we will be slowed by the drive through the Appalachians, however we will be able to maintain a respectable 62.5mph pace. The first day will be a little bit longer, but we’ll cover 500 miles even on that first day. I hope you bring your sunglasses.

DAY ONE

High pressure has a crushing death grip on the center of the country. There is a little area low pressure over the northern Rockies trying to gather some energy, but that’s going to promptly fall apart in the face of the much stronger ridge. I guess what I’m trying to say is enjoy the drive, because you won’t have any weather to contend with. The day ends in Huntington, West Virginia.

DAY TWO
Kentucky is probably one of my favorite states. Very friendly people, a lot of beautiful natural phenomenon, and generally some of the best weather in the country by almost anyone’s measure. We’ll spend a lot of time in the Bluegrass state, so you’ll be able to tell me if you share my opinion on this second day on our trip. No problems in Kentucky, and none in Jonesboro either.

York, Pennsylvania

Ah, finally, we’re off to the northeast where there has been some weather going on! What, the system is gone? Oh…

At 253PM, ET, York was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 69 degrees. A area of low pressure was finally being forced out of New England ad into the the Maritimes of eastern Canada. Afront that has become more of an inverted trough is angling through the center of Pennsylvania, promising even cooler, drier air.
The high pressure that has been so dominant in the center of the country will finally find it’s way into the northeast and mid-Atlantic, bringing with it sunny skies for the duration of the week, as well as the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 42
Saturday – Still sunny, High 72, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 76, Low 45
Saturday – Sunshine, High 78, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow- Bright sunshine and nice High 73, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny and pleasantly warm High 77, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow- Sunny, High 72, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny, High 72, Low 46

For a pair of sunny days, the temperature trends are all over the map. I am expecting some northwesterly flow to cool things off a bit on Saturday.

Blacksburg, Virginia to Jackson, Michigan

Talk about consistency. The last road trip I did was 507 miles. This one is about a 5K jog longer, at 510 miles. Will this jaunt from Virginia Tech to Eastern Michigan University have sunny skies? It’s the famous Hokies/Eagles showdown, road-trip style!

Upon our departure from Blacksburg, only a few scattered clouds are expected as high pressure continues to build into the Eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. For pretty much the entire trip northward through WV and Ohio, clear skies will rule, along with some gusts of 15-20mph. Don the sunglasses and enjoy the trip!