All posts by Ryan

Coming soon…

Let’s hit some of the country’s largest colleges (especially since they aren’t in session right now) and then move on to visit the western US.

San Diego, California

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Road trip from Tuscaloosa to State College, Pennsylvania

Road Trip from State College to Odessa, Texas

Fort Collins, Colorado

Yakima, Washington

Brunswick, Georgia to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to take a road trip, but we’ll make sure it’s brief today, as we head from the Atlantic coast of southeast Georgia to the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle. The cities of Brunswick are separated by 332 miles and a little over 5 hours. A big chunk of the day will be slowed by travelling through Jacksonville, but we will still maintain a pace of 64.9mph. We are spending quite a bit of time in north Florida, so I hope you like it.

There isn’t much organization in the southeastern US, but with low pressure continuing to ebb and fade in the northeast, sea breezes will continue to collide with slightly drierair inland, and produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain won’t be widespread, by any means, but don’t be surprised by a few scattered showers here and there as we pass through north Florida. The best area for convergence is always around Lake City, so if you want to make bets or something, bet on seeing a shower there. Also, if you want to make bets, you have a gambling problem. The threat for rain will still be present in Panama City, but it should be more sun than rain.

Panama City, Florida

I did some research to assuage my curiousity. Indeed, the Florida version of Panama City was named after the one in Panama, because it was founded during the height of Panama Canal Fever,which is actually sounds like an infectious disease, seeing it in print. will the weather seem Central American as well?

AT 353PM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with rain showers. There were isolated thunderstorms literring the interior of the eastern Gulf region, and along the coast, the thunderstorms have ended and given way to more general rain showers. Flow from the southwest towards a weak area of low pressure in the northeast, bringing in the moisture that was enveloping the region.
While the pattern continues to churn to the northeast of the Panama City area, it will be left relatively unchanged in the Florida Panhandle. A moisture rich southwesterly flow will continue to feed ever organizing and reorganizing areas of low pressure in eastern Canada, which means that more isolated showers with some embedded thunder will remain possible, especially in the afternoons, for the next few days.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 89, Low 72
Saturday – Less active, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 85, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late. High 84. Low 75

AW: More clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 74
Saturday -A thunderstorm in spots in the morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until evening. High 83, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 84, Low 78

Here is a look at the radar from this afternoon, with just a swath of rain moving into the Panama City area.

Everyone wins!

To end the week, the weather in New Orleans was immaculate: not a cloud to be seen, while temperatures only climbed to the mid 80s, which is very comfortable for this time of year down in the Bayous. So the residents of New Orleans were big winners, but so were the forecasters. There was a 5 way tie atop the leaderboard, leaving only the NWS and FIO out of the spoils. A cool morning low on Friday was a big enough hiccup that despite the tranquility, this tie wasn’t because everyone had an excellent showing.
Actuals: Thursday – High 84, Low 73
Friday – High 84, Low 64

Grade: C

Storms roll through the Twin Cities: VIDEO

A derecho plowed through the northern Plains and western Great Lakes today, taking aim at the Twin Cities metro area. As luck would have it, I had an appointment on the south side of Minneapolis this morning, so as my wife drove from the southern suburbs, I captured a few videos.
First, here we are driving north along I-35W in the south metro, looking at the looming storm to the west. Note the lightning already evident, along with a very ominous shade of green underneath the leading darker clouds. That green hue is owed to ice crystals in the clouds refracting sunlight as it filters through.

As we continue north, the leading gust front passed over us on 35 as we reached the Bloomington area. Keep in mind, as ominous as the clouds were, we actually ended up passing through one of the safer portions of the storm. Significant damage was seen in the north metro, and a copious amount of hail was received in the west metro, but we didn’t see either in our drive.

The storm was closing in! If nothing else, the system brought a whole lot of rain. Here, we continue through south Minneapolis, fully inundated by the storm. Nearly all traffic had pulled to the side of the road, but we pressed on.

The storm was a good example of a long-lived derecho event, starting in South Dakota and running all the way to northern Michigan by the end of the day, leaving a swath of damage along the way. Look at how nasty these videos look, and realize that we didn’t even get the worst of it, for the length of our 15 mile drive. This is the problem with derechoes: They cover a lot of ground and affect a lot more people than a typical supercell or squalls.
Still, it looked pretty cool, right?

Weather Wayback… A flurry of activity

It seems crazy to think that it was just three months ago that we were talking about snow in our forecasts, but that was just the case on March 13th in Terre Haute, Indiana. There was just a flurry in Terre Haute, but that’s still pretty late in the year, especially in southern Indiana. Most of our outlets weren’t fooled back when we issued the forecast, however, with 6/7 calling for the flurries. It was a result of a massive system moving up the coast, prepared to bring some significant weather to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and even on the periphery, nearly everyone was on point. If I recall, the forecast was a little overwrought in the big cities, but at least there was success in Terre Haute. WeatherNation won this March forecast, and did so with panache.
Actuals: March 13th – Trace of snow, High 33, Low 21
March 14th – High 34, Low 18

Grade: A-C

Jackson, Michigan

This weekend has brought on the first real heat wave of the winter, which is a little earlier than we usually see this kind of heat. How long will it last?

At 156AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. The warm temperatures even at this late hour are a result of brisk southerly flow generated by a distended area of low pressure in the Dakotas. Temperatures tomorrow will respond in kind, with 90s highly likely.
The flow is generally from the southwest with this storm, so the airmass in lower Michigan remains relatively dry. With little by way of instability, it will take a trigger to touch off thunderstorms in Michigan, despite the heat. A warm front will be the primary focus for storms, with a derecho tearing through Minnesota and Wisconsin, headed towards northern Michigan tomorrow. A cold front will begin to drift south on Monday, but there will be no upper level support for cooler air to drive southward. Even more significantly for the threat of rain, disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf will mean that the southerly flow into the front will not be laden with moisture. Hot, dry weather is going to continue for at least the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High  87, Low 68
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 88, Low 66
Monday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm High 89, Low 66
Monday – Sunny, breezy and hot with the temperature approaching the record of 95 set in 1933 High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 92, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 67
Monday – Sunny, High 92, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Higj 90, Low 70
Monday – Mostly sunny High 91. Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 69
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 69

So, that heat is going to linger for a while. Satellite is showing a lot of sun in the center of the country. Well, moon, at this time of night. That cluster of storms in South Dakota will be a doozy later, but southern Michigan is going to be just fine.

Workplace productivity on the rise

The worst thing about summer is that it’s really hard to stay at the office, working. The sun is out, the kids are out of school and your entire body screams for the outdoors. I am happy to report that this week in New Haven, that was not the case! It was cool and cloudy as a dual low passed off the coast and through New England. The good news was, it wasn’t as rainy as forecasts had envisioned, but it was just as miserable. Great days to be at work. Your boss savored it, I’m sure.
Tuesday – .02 inches in rain, High 55, Low 51
Wednedsay – High 69, Low 50

Grade: B-C

Terre Haute, Indiana to New Orleans, Louisiana

If you stuck around after our initial forecast, you will know that the weather in New Orleans for the next day and a half of this drive will be in excellent shape, but what about the 783 miles in between? We’ll cover that mileage at a pace of 68.5,mph, at which pace we will cover 548 miles on Thursday’s drive.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Indeed, warm weather and sunny skies have come to the Mississippi Valley after a long stretch of busy weather in the area. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of people just outside and enjoying it at any stop that is made. Maybe have lunch by the river in Memphis. It’s going to be nice day, is what I’m saying. We’ll make it to Mississippi and the town of Richland, which is about 75 miles northeast of Jackson.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Like I said in the intro, New Orleans is going to be very nice to drive through. So too, will Jackson and all parts in between. It will even be tolerably cool. Not quite to the dog days yet, but they are coming soon.

New Orleans, Louisiana

The Big Easy… Let’s go find out if the weather will be easy to forecast. – Most obvious intro pun possible.

At 953PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. After a rough weekend, a boundary has swept through the area, providing New Orleans with northerly flow, importing drier, stable air to the city. High pressure in the center of the country is inhibiting convective development across the center of the country.
The trough that brought the boundary through the region is shortwaved, but the high pressure in place behind it is broad and strong. There might be a few isolated showers or storms floating around the south end of the high pressure feature, but that will mean only some thunder around Corpus Christi. The next real threat for significant weather in the Big Easy will be with a few isolated storms over the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71
Friday – Sun High 85, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 85, Low 69
Friday – Sunshine – High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 85, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny, High 83, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 85, Low 73

This is incredible weather for New Orleans  for this time of year. Not too hot and dry.