All posts by Ryan

Duluth, Minnesota

I’m not entirely sure the reason, but we’ve definitely been pulling in a lot of Minnesota forecasts lately. One would hope that this homefield advantage does us some favors, though.

At 802PM, CT, Duluth was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with light snow. The airport lies uphill and away from Lake Superior, so the downtown area, and Superior across the border in Wisconsin were reporting rain. Snow was more vigorous in Arrowhead, and accompanied by strong winds coming off of the Lake. A broad trough lies over the northern US, and there is an embedded shorter wave over the upper Midwest, leading to a surface wave centered over Wisconsin, with the back end bringing the wet weather to the North Shore.
The short wave will merge into the broad trough, and the low over Wisconsin will spiral back into a broader surface low arriving from the Dakotas. Lingering rain and snow showers will continue through most of the day tomorrow, particularly north of Duluth, before the larger system moves into northern Minnesota by tomorrow evening. Tuesday will be a wet day, with some rain, but snow as well, particularly in the afternoon and evening, as cold air pivots into the region. Up to 2″ are possible. 
Tomorrow – Generally overcast with a few spots of snow and rain showers, High 38, Low 34
Tuesday – Rain snow mix, High 39, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36
Tuesday – Occasional light rain. High 40, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a stray shower High 43, Low 36
Tuesday – Periods of snow and rain; breezy High 43, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain after 5pm. Cloudy High 41, Low 35
Tuesday – Rain. High 41, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow in the morning, then a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36
Tuesday – Light rain possibly mied with snow. High 40, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix likely, High 40, Low 35
Tuesday – Cloudy with light wintry mix, High 40, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the evening. High 43, Low 38
Tuesday – Light rain overnight. High 43, Low 37

Temperatures are pretty borderline, but the fact that some snow has already fallen, and more cold air is going to fill in aloft, I fell comfortable putting snow in the forecast. Here is the radar with snow across Lake Superior.

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Happy Halloween! Let’s head to the capital of the Keystone State to see what they have to fright or delight us with.

At 1256PM, ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure in northern Quebec, and a strong jet just to the west of Harrisburg was allowing for a pleasant warm up in eastern Pennsylvania. Both were contributing to some rain in western Pennsylvania, however the emergence of a new feature over Texas will erode the rainy spots, and prevent the line from stretching into Harrisburg. 
The southern low, organizing at the base of an upper level trough, will intensify and shift swiftly to the northeast tonight, A warm front will pass in the wee hours in Harrisburg tomorrow morning, with a shot at light rain, and more warm air during the day. The central low is forecast to intercept central Pennsylvania directly late tomorrow. Meanwhile, the strong south to north jet is going to continue drifting eastward. A kink in the jet will give rise to a stronger area of development in the Carolinas, and a bona fide Nor’Easter looks n coming late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Light rain early, with heavy rain and wind arriving late, High 70, Low 56
Friday – Rain, especially early with another round of rain and wind late, becoming colder, High 66, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (late rain) High 73, Low 55
Friday – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy; mild (late rain), high 72, Low 54
Friday – Mostly cloudy; a couple of morning showers, then periods of rain High 69, low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 9am, then a slight chance of rain after 9am. Mostly cloudy, high 70, Low 55
Friday – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm High 70, low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with 40% chance of rain, High 70, Low 56
Friday – Showers. High 68, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, low 55
Friday – Cloudy with light showers, High 70, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 52
Friday – Rain overnight and in the evening. High 67, Low 58

We have reached the time of year where low temperatures can appear at any time of day, and I really need to dig into the hourly forecasts. Yuck. Here is the rain in western PA, no threat to Harrisburg on this evening.

Coming soon…

Halloween is coming up on Wednesday, with November coming the following day. The tropical season is nearly at its end, but the winter season is right around the corner. After the past two years, that’s probably better. Let’s look a little more short term, though and see what’s in store for the next few days.

Duluth, Minnesota
Road trip from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to Duluth

Huntsville, Alabama

Decatur, Illinois

Tallahassee, Florida

Deltona, Florida

Road Trip from Deltona to Muskegon, Michigan

The second time around

We returned to St. Cloud for the second time in about a week, and things seem to have been better for forecasters, though a quick moving batch of rain likely made things a bit worse, weather-wise. Of course, that rain fell only from Saturday night to Sunday morning, so perhaps St. Cloud residents were able to stay dry, which means this weekend everyone was happy! The National Weather Service had the best weekend, winning the best forecast with ease.
Actuals: Saturday – .22 inches of rain, High 53, Low 43
Sunday – .03 inches of rain, High 54, Low 36

Grade: B-C

Lexington, Kentucky to Sherman, Texas

Who’s ready to head to Texas? It will take a day and a half to travel from Kentucky to Texas, covering 855 miles between our two cities. At a pace of 66.9mph, we will be able to cover 535 miles on our first day, leaving a mere 320 miles for Tuesday. Hopefully the weather is cooperating.

DAY ONE (Monday)

I’m not sure you could ask for much better weather than what we are expecting in the southern Plains. High pressure is going to sit over the region, leaving a nice pool of tranquil air over the southern Appalachians, spreading west towards the lower Mississippi Valley. We’ll make it all the way to Lonoke, Arkansas (east of Little Rock) and won’t be confronted by a cloud, much less a rain drop.

DAY TWO (Tuesday) 
Low pressure is sliding into the Northern Plains by Tuesday, and dragging a cold front into the Central Plains. Precipitation won’t reach the stretch of road between Sherman and Lonoke, but southerly winds will increase, and we might see a ouch of rain before the drive is through. Extremely manageable. Couldn’t ask for a better drive. 

Fall is here

Sure, some may look for foliage turning brilliant shades of orange, while others may note the harvest, but I look to the Storm Prediction Center, curious as to whether there are any thunderstorms in the forecast. On Monday, there are indeed no thunderstorms expected anywhere in the lower 48.

We just have to get through a very slight risk for some showers with embedded thunderstorms in the central Ohio Valley on Sunday, and we will be in the clear for Tuesday. 

Mellow in SoCal

Our forecast for Riverside called for more hot air, despite the fact that we are reaching the end of October. Temperatures were warm, but only managed to hit the mid 80s, which was a hair cooler than the forecast suggested, but that is a move in the right direction for a spot that has just been too warm lately. At long last, Victoria-Weather finally came through with another forecast win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 55
Thursday – High 86, Low 55

Grade: A-D

St. Cloud, Minnesota

We’re back! Let’s hope this goes better than the last time we were here.

At 953AM, CT, Saint Cloud was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with light rain. The remnants to Hurricane Willa were reconstituting as a subtropical area of low pressure slicing through the Ohio Valley. A lingering inverted trough was responsible for the light rain in central Minnesota, though it had more to offer closer to the Wisconsin, and St. Cloud was at the western edge of the rain for the time being. 
A shallow jet ridge is nosing into the region, promising more stability and a bit warmer air, however before that can happen, the nose of the jet ridge is going to enhance the inverted trough, and lead to a bit more instability. Expect another cloudy, drizzly day on Saturday, with an intensification of the showers overnight into the wee hours of Sunday morning. With a bit of independent organization, the low pressure entity in the Upper Midwest will take off swiftly for the eastern Great Lakes, with more sun and warmer air to follow into Minnesota shortly thereafter. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with some late showers, High 55, Low 39
Sunday – Early light rain, then clearing and warmer, High 56, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow =- Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 52, low 40
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 53, low 40

AW: Tomorrow =- Mainly cloudy; milder (late rain) High 54, Low 39
Sunday – Windy in the morning; considerable cloudiness (early rain) High 52, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy high 54, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny (early rain) High 54, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 53, Low 41
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance for rain in the morning. High 50, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 41
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 53, low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoonHigh 52, Low 41

So less warm, and less rain than I had in the forecast, generally from everyone across the board. I like the way my forecast looks, though, so hopefully it bears out. Here is the morning radar, with showers just to the south.

The Odessa Odyssey

Never underestimate a clear sky in west Texas. It was fairly clear in Odessa on Monday, as the streams of light rain showers steered clear of our forecast site as the work week began, and temperatures were well above the consensus forecasts.. Sunday was a little bit more solemn, with some spits of rain here and there that not many outlets were entirely prepared for. Accuweather had the only perfect forecast in terms of precipitation, but hey were outdone by the National Weather Service and their shadows at WeatherNation, who knew to expect a temperature spike with the sun shining on Odessa.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 48
Monday – High 70, Low 46

Grade: B-D

Supertyphoon Yutu slams Saipan


Saipan is the primary island in the Northern Marianas Islands, a US territory in the western Pacific. It is near Guam, and was clobbered by the strongest tropical storm of the year. While Michael launched 155mph winds at the Florida Panhandle, Saipan saw winds of 185mph. 

The Coast Guard is currently assessing the situation in the Northern Marianas, but they will undoubtedly need some time to recover from this disaster. If there is any good news, it is that the Northern Marianas are home to a large military presence, and much of the population is transient, so permanent abodes aren’t necessarily destroyed for as many people as it could be. Still, stay tuned to this news story, because the western Pacific islands are already isolated, and this storm will only make them moreso. Help is likely to be needed.