All posts by Ryan

Ogden, Utah

There is always discussion about the coasts, and in the summer, we worry about tornadoes for the middle of the country. Attention is difficult to come by for the mountains in the middle. Whats going on in that part of the world? 

At 853AM, MT, Ogden was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 65 degrees. High pressure is entrenched over the inter-mountain West, with warm, dry air leading to some red flag warnings for the mountains away from the Salt Lake Basin.
There is a poorly angled upper level trough north of the Canadian border, extending into the north Pacific, and it is slowly trying to work its way south into the western US, but the eastward progress is going to slow down dramatically, to the point that any substantial change to the weather in Ogden should not be anticipated, but temperatures will be a bit cooler thanks to a refreshing breeze. 
Tomorrow – Hazy but mostly sunny, High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Cooler and still sunny, High 80, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny skies. High 80, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 87, Low 60
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine High 82, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 61

Well that doesn’t sound bad at all, just so long as the threat for fires isn’t realized in the Wasatch. Aside from some of the peaks in the south, here is a crystal clear satellite image. 

Sunny on Labor Day Weekend

As we looked forward to Labor Day weekend, we were monitoring a weak wave through the Ohio Valley. In Gadsden, the worry was that some of the waves intake would lead to some popcorn showers and storms and some ruined outdoor plans. Those storms were not to be, however, as storms stayed well to the west of town. It was hot and humid, though, and a fitting send off for summer. Accuweather had the victory, thanks to their dry forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 87, Low 66
Sunday – High 89, Low 68

Grade: B-D

Knoxville, Tennessee

Our sojourn to the south is nearly at an end, but we have one more stop in eastern Tennessee. The Smokey Mountains have a microclimate that allows for a great deal more fog and haze than other parts of the country. Is that going to show up in our temperature forecasts?

At 153PM, ET, Knoxville was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees with sunny skies. The remnants of Gordon lingered over northern Arkansas, and the flow enhanced a stationary boundary south of the Ohio River. Because of this enhancement, warm, moist air was being entrained into the boundary at an elevated pace, and the orographic lift over the Smokeys was leading to some isolated thunderstorms in and around the peaks of the region.
As the remnants of Gordon move northeast towards Ohio, generally following along with the existing stationary boundary, though lifting it northward ever so slightly, the warm sector, including Knoxville, will become even more embedded within a very moist, unstable flow. Because the feed into Knoxville will be over the mountains, expect a fairly dry, if muggy Saturday, but things will get a bit more active as a well defined cold front develops through the Tennessee Valley, and moved into town on Sunday night.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, especially in the afternoon, High 87, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds and rain late, High 86, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 69
Sunday – Considerable cloudiness. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun, a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 87, Low 70
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thudnerstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 86, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 87 Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 881, Low 71

You don’t have to be along a coast to be affected with tropical features, but fortunately for Knoxville, you do need a mountain range to find yourself in a rain shadow. Here is the radar showing the popcorn showers and storms presently ongoing.

Dothan, Alabama

The storm that’s on everyone’s mind in southern Alabama today is Gordon. What will he do and where is he going? Let’s find out!

At 1153AM, CT, Dothan was reporting brisk west winds and a temperature of 81 degrees, with overcast skies,. Tropical Storm Gordon remained a mass of rain with a few embedded lightning strikes off the coast from the Florida Panhandle. There has been some organizing through the day, but moving towards the Mississippi Delta will only work to blunt the continued development of the feature. Dothan is presently staying out of the rain associated with the system, and looks to do so until the system begins to unravel as it moves inland. 
Gordon will swiftly waste himself when on land. He will become part of the intake into a ranging cold front through the center of the country, which may spread far enough to the east to leave Dothan with a few showers on Thursday afternoon. Most of the activity will remain west of Dothan, as it will while Gordon is thriving, but with pressure in the storm rising, Dothan will be more reflective of a standard late summer day in southern Alabama.
Tomorrow – Overcast with scattered showers, High 83,Low 74
Thursday – More sun, still some isolated showers, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. High 86, Low 73
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 90, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon.High 86, Low 73
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun; humid High 90, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy High 88, Low 72
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 73
Thursday – Partly sunny, A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 88, Low 72
Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 83, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 72

The discussion for this forecast was put together before the numeric forecast that followed, and I can tell you, as of early Tuesday morning, Gordon has made landfall, though he never did attain hurricane status. Below is the radar imagery from the time the forecast was put together.

Peoria, Illinois to Gadsden, Alabama

Labor Day isn’t usually a holiday that people travel for, but you might. It’s a three day weekend, so even though the one day trip is a long one, it doesn’t necessarily take up the whole weekend, giving us some time in Gadsden, even if we leave tomorrow. The drive will take 9 hours or so, and cover 641 miles, putting us on a pace of 68.8mph, which will certainly get us to Gadsden in plenty of time. 

A cold front is stalling across northern Illinois, with high pressure sitting over the eastern US, sticking its butt end right into our route. The best threat for thunderstorms through the day will be very early on, but through midday there could be a stray shower as the heating of the day actually burns off most of the cloud cover through Southern Illinois. The rest of the drive on into Alabama looks to be quite delightful, if a little steamy for any stops for gas. Gadsden, likewise, will be hot and stuffy for our Labor Day. 

Gadsden, Alabama

At 856AM, CT, Gadsden was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with sunny skies. The skies across northern Alabama are mottled with clouds, though Gadsden itself was in the clear. Showers are expected to pop up this afternoon, particularly in the southern part of the state, thanks to a weak, non tropical feature off of the coast from Mobile. Moisture entrainment into a disturbance over the Upper Midwest will continue to be a source for showers, storms and clouds in Alabama throughout the day.

The weekend will be dictated by how well the feature organizes, and right now, all models suggest the system will remain a rudderless mass of showers and storms. This means it will continue to be a well of potential shower and thunderstorm activity for the Gadsden area right through Sunday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny with a smattering of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91,Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun; humid High 91, Low 67
Sunday – Partly sunny; humid High 92, low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 92, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 92, Low +72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 89, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 78
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 79

Sound like a pretty standard Labor Day weekend across the southeast. Here is satellite showing off the smattering of convection off shore

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 02 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C02_G16_s20182411842196_e20182411844567_c20182411845004.nc

Lane skirts Hawai’i, still brings rain

As we learned with the record breaking rains in Kauai earlier this year, the high mountains of Hawaii do the islands no favors during heavy rain events. Hurricane Lane dwindled to a Tropical Storm by the time it afflicted the Islands and mostly spared Oahu, Maui and Kauai, but the Big Island bore the brunt of torrential rains. Not only is Kilauea continuing to erupt, but it also played a role in triggering flash flooding for the island. CBS News has all the pictures you might need.

Rain soaked but still warm

Temperatures for the beginning of the week in Lafayette were supposed to be well off the pace of their scorching summer thanks to a slow moving cold front that brought nearly an inch of rain last Monday and Tuesday. Still and all, Lafayette was able to climb back into the 80s on Monday, and nearly made it again on Tuesday. The forecast was a little warmer than anyone thought, but it was still much more comfortable that it’s been through the rest of August. Forecast.io had the winning digits.
Actuals: Monday High 83, low 67
Tuesday – High 79, low 64

Grade: B-C

Relief on the way?

Not enough can be said about the valiant efforts of the hotshots and local fire fighters that battle the massive wildfires in the western United States as they encroach upon populated areas. They save countless lives and millions of dollars, but even they will admit that the greatest fire fighter of them all is mother nature, and she is finally stepping in to fight the blazes next week.

As noted earlier in the week, smoke from storms in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada has spilled east so as to smother most of the International border as heat and aridity embrace the region. Fortunately, both those things are expected to change fairly soon, particularly with temperatures dropping in the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Pacific.

High pressure in the north Pacific will cycle cooler, moister air from the shores of Alaska, through British Columbia, and at the coolest, all the way to southern California. Rain won’t be as widespread as the region could use, but the relief in temperature will help those heroic fire fighters get a leg up.