All posts by Ryan

Augusta, Georgia

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 47
Friday – Sunny, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 62, Low 48
Friday – Mostly sunny skies. High 76, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun high 64, Low 46
Friday – Warmer with intervals of clouds and sun High 75, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 64, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 64, Low 48
Friday – Mostly sunny High 74, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy, High \1, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning.High 68, Low 44
Friday – Partly cloudy until evening. High 77, Low 45

So there it is. Not a terrible couple of days. I would say 2 days that I wouldn’t mind having here in at Victoria Weather HQ!

Merced, California

Let’s get out to California. There was a tornado warning just northwest of Merced today. Anything else to be concerned about on the horizon?

At 953PM, CT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tornado threat of this afternoon is long past, though there were a few showers well to the north towards Chico, while Merced and the area around was much clearer. A cold front swept through the area earlier, and there was some wind damage reported in the central Valley as it passed by. Through the day tomorrow, a sharp upper level trough will remain in place over the west coast, and an onshore flow will allow the threat for showers, particularly along the western exposures of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevadas to persist.
A shortwaved ridge will move into the area by Thursday morning as the region will clear out. There will be a bit of a clearing on Thursday, allowing for a warm up and sunshine. The break will be short lived, as the next threat for rain will arrive by Friday.  Surface low pressure will linger off the coast of British Columbia, only to be reinforced by a newly arrived upper level wave on Friday. This persistent surface feature may lead to Merced being a bit murkier, even on Thursday, when t will otherwise be clearer.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance for light rain, High 62, Low 50
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 62, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 66, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Site is down for maintenance 🙁

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 71, Low 41

I tried to wait out Accuweather, but I need to go to bed. No forecast from them tonight. here is the radar in northern California, which will pick back up again tomorrow .

Weather Wayback… A happier time

The second weekend of the year in eastern Washington may have seemed like a rough weekend, as temperatures were not anticipated to climb out of the lower 20s. In fact, those temperatures couldn’t even clear the mid teens in Yakima, where we issued a forecast on January 14th. Unanticipated was an overcast that brought some light snow all the way down to the Yakima Valley both Saturday the 14th and Sunday the 15th. The forecasts were calamitous, all across the board, with The Weather Channel narrowly winning the day on a particularly awful forecast. Now, this past week, however, the warm weather has led to rapid snowmelt, accompanied with heavy rain earlier this week has led to some significant flooding in the city of Yakima. Fortunately waters are receding quickly, and after this post, we won’t have to worry about the other disaster – the forecast from January 14th.
Actuals: Saturday, January 15th, snow reported and not measured, High 15, Low 1
Sunday, January 16th – Snow reported and not measured, High 16, Low 12

Grade F

Jackson, Michigan to Manchester, New Hampshire

We’re going to Canada! At long last, we are cutting through southern Ontario to facilitate our day and a half drive, from southeast Michigan to southeast New Hampshire. The drive is 827 miles, which we will cover at a pace of 65mph. This means our first day should be through after 521 miles of driving, which should place us safely back on American soil for the night.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Off we go, and I am happy to report that our venture through Ontario will be slowed only by customs going into and returning from our neighbors to the north. A cold front will be forcing its way towards the Tennessee Valley, so we will be experiencing a bit of a chill, and some breezy weather in Chatham-Kent, London and Hamilton, but no actual precipitation. There may be a few flurries up in the Adirondacks when we return to New York, and we might see a flake as we stop in Westmoreland for the night, but that’s hardly Canada’s fault.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The rear lobe of a system moving offshore from New England is expected to organize a bit over Nova Scotia on Wednesday, wrapping moisture back into the White and Green Mountains. We should be far enough south that we stay snow free, but there will likely be a few midlevel clouds as we navigate through Massachusetts and finally arrive in Manchester.

Shenanigans!

Just before midnight on Sunday night in Longview, Texas, there was a report of light rain. It was at the regular observing time from an automatic station. Skies were clear. Skies were clear everywhere around Longview. I looked at the radar. Nothing. All signs point to this being an erroneous observation by a robot hopped up on too much late night petroleum (or whatever robots drink). The problem is that a couple of outlets DID forecast rain, and you can’t always just dismiss these random reports. The only fair thing, in my mind, was to let it go, and not worry about precipitation for this particular forecast, and let it boil down to temperature analysis. In that regard, Accuweather (who DID have rain in the forecast) earned the top spot, while Victoria-Weather (who did NOT) followed in close pursuit.
Actuals – Sunday – Precipitation – ???, High 85, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 63

Grade: C

Coming Soon….

The transition to spring is one of the most interesting times of the year for forecasting. Fortunately, we have several of those for your enjoyment.

Road Trip from Jackson, Michigan to Manchester, New Hampshire

Merced, Calfornia

Flint, Michigan

Augusta, Georgia

San Angelo, Texas

Owensboro, Kentucky

San Antonio, Texas

Longview, Texas

It’s been quite a while since we stopped by Texas for a forecast. Let’s do it!

At 153PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with overcast skies. There was a big swath of overcast across the Big Piney Woods, thanks largely to dew points that lingered in the low to mid 60s. Visible satellite showed that this thicket of clouds was at the tail end of a cold front extending from the coastal Carolinas, and the vector analysis in the region suggested a weak area of low pressure east of Dallas.
High pressure is moving into the region, however, both at the surface and aloft, which will prevent any further convective development. Moisture off the Gulf will be pulled towards eastward, towards Louisiana, as most synoptic activity will be in eastern Canada or off the Eastern Seaboard. Expect temperatures to be much warmer than average.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 82, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a shower in spots High 84, Low 62
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 83, Low 62
Monday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 80, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 84, Low 62
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 61

Boy, that’s a comfortable forecast, exactly the kind of weather I want in my life. It’s stuck in Texas for now, though. Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds settling in right on top of Longview.

A good day all around in Wichita

The weather of the past two days in Wichita was magnificent, with temperatures climbing up into the upper 70s, warmer even than the most optimistic forecasting outlets. Significantly warmer, actually. Additionally, the Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, ended up defeating the Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not bad at all. On top of that, everyone could go outside for their St. Patrick’s Day parade! The Weather Channel enjoyed the top forecast of the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 76, Low 38
Friday – High 78, Low 50

Grade: B-D

Sunday promises a temperature bump

The pattern this weekend is going to be at the same time unchanged and quite progressive. We will continue to have a ridge out west and the same broad trough that has lingered out east in the wake of this week’s storm. Those aren’t going anywhere, but will instead be strengthened. Instead of focussing on the bad news, let’s look at what I find to be good news. It’s going to warm up in the Plains!

Take a look at the surface forecast, in which we can see a thermal ridge, represented by the arcing red lines, representing thickness, through the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

So the access of the warmest layers run from Nebraska to northern Minnesota. The warmer temperatures will be a little further to the west, as they will be boosted by westerly flow off the higher terrain.

Highs in the 80s into Nebraska, and the 70s in South Dakota. That’s not bad!

A toasty spring is on its way

The Climate Prediction Center has released their outlook for spring 2017, and it is a warm one.

At least half of the country has a better than 50/50 shot of being warmer than normal between the months of April and May. From the CPC press release on their outlook:

For April through June, above-average temperatures are favored for a large area stretching from the Southwest eastward to include the central and southern Plains, Great Lakes, Southeast and Northeast. Most of Alaska and Hawaii are also favored to see above-average temperatures. The greatest odds for above-normal temperatures include the south central Plains and eastern U.S. No areas in the U.S. are favored to see below-average temperatures this spring.

Warmer springs generally mean stormier springs. Looks like we are in for some interesting times next month!