All posts by Ryan

Cold air coming

After an unusually warm end to November and start to December, the eastern US is expecting a strong cold front to sweep through early this week. This strong cold front may even bring some severe weather to the lower Ohio River Valley tomorrow as the deep, Arcitc pool comes rushing in.

And then, t’s going to be cold. Not just “back to normal” but significantly colder than average. Take a look:

There is still some ridging out west, and Alaska and southern California look warm, but look at that bullseye over West Virginia and Kentucky. It’s going to be quite chilly for the weekend, with those cooler temperatures continuing even into next week. Of course, it doesn’t appear as though there is a strong system to take advantage of the colder air to bring some December snow, but it is definitely time to break out the winter wear.

10 hours make all the difference

A cold front moving through New England over the weekend wasn’t really a big news maker, mostly because it didn’t carry with it a great deal of rainfall. It was, of course, the main attraction in our forecast for Manchester over the holiday weekend. Temperatures didn’t play nice for the duration of the forecast period, spiking warmer than expected on Saturday, and on Sunday, the temperature leading into the day was close to 50, rather than 40, as everyone expected. That, in large part, is because the front itself didn’t come through close to midnight, as had been anticipated, but rather closer to noon marked by gusty wind and a splash of drizzle on Sunday. Victoria-Weather had the latest time of the front’s arrival, and as a result, were able to claim victory, tortuous though it was.
Actuals: Saturday – High 58, Low 29
Sunday – Trace of rain, High 49, Low 33

Grade: D-F

Bismarck, North Dakota to Salisbury, Maryland

We will use up the rest of the workweek with this trek. It’s going to take us three full days, including a little extra on that third day, to cover the 1639 miles between orgin and destination for this trip. We are going to be slowed by the big cities, like Chicago, and the Appalachians, but we should still maintain a pace of about 65.6mph, good for a goal of about 524 miles a day. This is a good little trip, and the weather is looking good. Let’s be on our way!

 

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

High pressurre is sitting right in the middle of the country, keeping things pretty well in control, butt actually, tomorrow, there will be a wave rippling along the international border. Like almost everything this week, though, it will not have access to any moisture, and even if it did, we will remain ahead odd the attendant cold front, which will only reach the western Minnesota border by the end of our drive time. We’ll make it to Eau Claire to finish our day.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
That band area of low pressure scooting through the boundary region will not maintain its structure overnight, however a moisture will begin to fill into the trough, which will be squeezed between two areas of high pressure, one moving towards the east coast and another building in the central Plains. The shower activity will be light, but unlie on Wednesday, will actually outpace us. Expect things to be a little cloudier as we head east, as well as a bit cooler. We’ll stop in Delta, Ohio, just before Toledo.

DAY THREE (Friday)
Friday will be entirely without intrigue, at least in terms of the weather. Sure, we will pass through the rolling peaks of Appalachia, and we will split Baltimore and Washington, so a detour could be fun, but if you want to see anything but tranquility and the sun, then this is not going to be the drive for you. Enjoy the Eastern Shore!

Salisbury, Maryland

I’ve entered a busy forecast week at the right time. High pressure is locked and loaded in the middle of the country, and I am here to execute what I hope will , Low 32be an easy forecast.

At 1154PM, ET, Salisbury was reporting a temperature of  degrees with clear skies. Dew points also happened to be in the mid 30s in the Delmarva, so a bit of ground fog in the morning isn’t entirely out of the question. Otherwise, there are no threats to a tranquil night.
High pressure and an unseasonably high amplitude ridge are in place over the east coast, meaning more clear skies and warm weather tomorrow. A strong area of low pressure will be moving through Hudson Bay towards northern Quebec, which will swing a cold front southeast towards the coast. There will be an undercutting trough moving through the Tennessee Valley and an offshore wave in the Bight of Georgia, both of which will work to rob the boundary approaching the Mid Atlantic of any moisture, and Salisbury will merely experience a change in the wind pattern on Wednesday evening.
Tomorrow – Sunny with some morning fog, High 62, Low 32
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 63, Low 33
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Clear High 61, Low 33
Wednesday – Clear and pleasant High 63, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow  – Sunny, High 61, Low 34
Wednesday – Sunny, High 64, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 33
Wednesday – Sunny, High 64, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 35
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 62, Low 36
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 63, Low 43

On clear, sunny day forecasts, it’s tough to find a lot of wiggle room in forecasts. I think we’re going to be fairly sunny. Take a look at how far away any organized cloud structures are from eastern Maryland.

Red Friday

OK, so maybe not the most clever of headlines, but I can still report that the temperatures in Madison on Black Friday were very warm, and many people associate the color red with warmth or heat. I stand by this stupid headline. Anyways, the significant warmth played the primary role in the verification, rather than the spot of drizzle only Victoria-Weather correctly called out. Even with a missed temperature forecast, the Weather Service and WeatherNation tied for the top marks.
Actuals: Thursday – High 44, Low 30
Friday – Trace of rain, High 64, Low 33

Grade C-D

November ending on a dry note

While we have successfully made it through the first major holiday of the season free of any significant weather, and we have been told to expect warm temperatures as the month winds down, there is another concern becoming more apparent. It’s going to be very dry.

Below is a look at the projected precipitation over the next week.

The Pacific Northwest is going to get pummeled by systems, and there will even be some showers into southern California, but from the Rockies and eastward, it will mostly be a very dry week.

This isn’t a terrible concern for most, save for down in Florida, where it is still warm enough for fires if it remains too dry, especially with the extra debris added by Irma, as the growing season is over almost everywhere. The only places in dire need of rain fall are ski hills and resorts, which are getting a late start on the season Fortunately, the highest points of the mountains in Nre England down through the Smokeys look to be some of the most reliably damp parts of the country.

While this week is nice, the central Plains will eventually want to catch up with the snow. It will prevent frost from settling in too deeply, slowing the growing season next spring, and will obviously provide the early season moisture essential for crop growth. Rain, like they are going to see in the Ozarks, doesn’t really do much this time of year.

The good news is all the snow coming for the Sierras, where a snowpack there will feed the rivers flowing into central California next spring.

Manchester, New Hampshire

Hey, let’s go up to New Hampshire for a forecast today, where the fall colors have passed, but winter hasn’t been welcomed quite yet either.

At 353PM, ET, Manchester was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with fair skies. There was a light south wind in the region, and most of the region was enjoying fairly warm, sunny conditions. Manchester finds itself in a position of some stability today, between parallel jet streaks through eastern Canada and east of the Gulf Stream in the north Atlantic. There is a surface low in western Ontario that is helping to induce the southerly breeze this afternoon in New England.
The parallel nature of the jet structure is inducing a pair of lows, the aforementioned wave in Canada, but also a rainier low moving through the western Atlantic. The offshore low will effectively steal moisture away from the terrestrial system, and despite a cold front arriving in Manchester on Saturday afternoon, it will be with little fanfare. The boundary will stall in the area, and the Atlantic feature will rock back towards the low, which will be in northern Quebec by Saturday evening. Circulation induced by these merging systems may bring some light snow showers to Manchester overnight Saturday into Sunday, but a cooler, drier flow will arrive by midday on Sunday.  Clouds are still likely, but the threat for flurries will be at an end.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 34
Sunday – Early morning wintry mix, High 41, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 53, Low 33
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 42, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds (late rain) High 55, Low 34
Sunday – A snow shower in the morning; otherwise, windy and cooler with periods of clouds and sun High 42, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 42, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (evening showers, High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 42, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 52, Low 35
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon (late rain). High 52, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. (early rain) High 41, Low 29

A look at the satellite shows that the action right now is to the north of the international border. The forecasts tell us that there are still many questions to be answered about what is going to unfold this weekend in New Hampshire. I should note, that where available, most of those forecast temperatures are non standard for Sunday.

A late fall temperature surge

The thing about advancing cold fronts is that sometimes, they don’t end  long spells of hot weather.  Sometimes, warm air is pulled further north due to the same circulation that is producing the cold front, which means, essentially, you couldn’t have the warm air without the cold front. Whoa. So that’s what happened in Providence this week, and was extremely efficient. After our forecast valid period, a little wave was moving through Canada, cut off from any moisture, still efficiently tugged a great deal of warmth north. It was almost 60 degrees on Tuesday, a spike in temperature over the 43 degrees on Monday. Accuweather and Forecast.io were the unlikely duo who had the best forecast on this day.
Actuals: Monday – High 43, Low 35
Tuesday – High 59, Low 36

Grade: A-C

Coming Soon…

I hope you all are getting ready to enjoy Thanksgiving tomorrow among all your loved ones. We will return after the holiday with a pretty good week of weather wisdom.

Salisbury, Maryland
Road Trip from Bismarck, North Dakota to Salisbury

Bend, Oregon 

Dothan, Alabama

Baltimore, Maryland
Road Trip from Dothan to Baltimore

Terre Haute, Indiana
Road Trip from Baltimore to Terre Haute

Madison, Wisconsin

Madison is as close as we’ve come to Victoria-Weather headquarters in a while, and we’re here just in time for one of the biggest travel times of the year.

At 653PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 31 degrees with overcast skies. A steady south wind was bringing slightly warmer air to the north, and a thick layer of clouds suggests that the temperatures won’t be dropping much, if at all, overnight. There is a little bit of precipitation being detected on radar, mostly north of Madison, which is likely falling as a snow/sleet mix. Expect that sloppiness to continue for a short while tonight, clearing before travelers really get underway tomorrow morning.
A trough moving through the Canadian Prairies is going be forced away from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day tomorrow by a very strong upper level ridge. The ridge will flatten through Friday with a fairly strong ripple moving across the northern flank, with an associated cold front sinking towards Madison by Friday evening. Similar tonight, there will be spots of  precipitation, but in Madison, any wet weather will likely be a spit of light rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, especially in the afternoon, High 42, Low 30
Friday – increasing clouds, but near record warmth and with a touch of drizzle late, High 52, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 44, Low 29
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed.High 56, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and not as cold High 44, low 27
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, windy and mild High 56, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 44, Low 29
Friday – Mostly sunny,High 59, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 42, Low 30
Friday – Partly sunny, High 53, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 29
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 33

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until morning.High 44, Low 30
Friday – Breezy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon, and partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 58, Low 35

I’m the only one worried about the boundary bringing any precipitation. What can I say, I’m a nervous nelly. Here is the radar, showing some spots of precipitation around Wisconsin.