All posts by Ryan

Burlington, Vermont

We’ve been watching a feature slide slowly up the coast. Today, it arrived in the Mid-Atlantic. Will it bring problems to northern New England?

At 754PM, ET, Burlington was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few showers being reported in Montreal and Saranac Lake, as well as at the north end of Lake Champlain, but the remainder of Northern Vermont was avoiding and damp conditions. This was merely because Burlington had found a window bbetween areas of showers, as tere was a band stretching from the Gulf of Maine to the Hudson to the south, and batches of shower activity east and west. The center of circulation for the responsible area of low pressure was sitting off the coast of Atlantic City.
The shower activity will continue through the morning as the upper level eddy swings into the Canadian Maritimes. The feature is actually moving within a broader upper level trough, so after the rain clears out, Burlington will warm up swiftly. Thursday will be mostly sunny as well as the next system to impact the region will be moving towards James Bay, all the while dragging more warm air into Vermont. Clouds will increase late on Thursday as the feature gets closer.
Tomorrow – Morning showers, then warmer, High 68, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer still, with sun and clouds late, High 74, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 66, Low 46
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed.High 73, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning, then periods of sun and clouds in the afternoon (morning showers) High 66, Low 47
Thursday – Warmer; cloudy with areas of fog in the morning, then a blend of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 77, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. a chance of showers in the morning. High 63, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly Sunny, High 79, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 54

It’s very rainy in New England today, but there is a pretty good agreement that starting tomorrow, it’s going to get much warmer. here is the radar for all of New England.

New York, New York

We are going to take our forecast attitude to the Big Apple today. I imagine the forecast will be fairly similar to Barnstable yesterday, but maybe not as cool. As always, we are forecasting for Central Park.

At 1051AM, ET, New York was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies at Central Park. La Guardia and JFK were reporting overcast skies as an area of low pressure worked its way up the coast from the Carolina. This feature will bring some showers to the region as soon as tomorrow, with a heavier round of rain likely tomorrow afternoon.
A weak upper level wave is being pulled north towards a broader upper level trough in Canada, and riding the leading periphery of a south to north jet over the Mississippi Valley. As a result, despite the expected well organized circulation of this feature, it will not import any cooler air midweek. To the contrary, it will be much warmer by Wednesday as the rain clears out.
Tomorrow – Showers, some heavy in the afternoon, High 55, low 50
Wednesday – Morning showers, then clearing, High 61, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with rain likely High 55, low 51
Wednesday – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 61, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cooler with periods of rain High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Warmer with occasional rain and drizzle High 62, low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 53, Low 50
Wednesday – Cloudy, early rain, High 61, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, High 55, Low 50
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of light rain in the afternoon, High 63, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Rain High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 66, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight. High 54, low 48
Wednesday – Light rain until morning. High 63, Low 54

We are looking at a pretty well smothered in the Big Apple. mmm, smothered apples…. Here is the latest radar, showing some showers moving in.

Barnstable, Massachusetts

How about a forecast? I haven’t dabbled in this market for a while, it might be nice.

At 956PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. A light southwesterly wind off of the Atlantic was keeping temperatures cool, as they typically do on Cape Cod. Location aside, there was a cooler air mass over southeastern New England, with upper 40s covering the region. There is high pressure in the area, but it is decidedly Canadian, meaning the continued sunshine the area will receive tomorrow will be seasonably cool.
An eddy at the upper levels is centered over the southeastern US. It will be inexorably drawn towards the broader upper level trough moving through eastern Canada. Owing to the warmth and its proximity to the Gulf stream, the surface reflection of the perturbation in the southeastern US will ingest a great deal of moisture. The low will reach the Hampton Roads of Virginia by Tuesday afternoon, and when it does, it will be able to pull moisture off the Gulfstream into Cape Cod. Tuesday afternoon, as a result,  looks to be dreary with a few showers throughout the day.  The good news is that the showers will also bring in warmer air, meaning after the forecast period is over, temperatures will be on their way up.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Cooler with rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 46 (nonstandard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 59, Low 42
Tuesday – Rain. High 51, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds High 58, Low 42
Tuesday – Cooler with periods of rain High 51, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 61, Low 40
Tuesday – Rain likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, High 50, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Rain likely. High 51, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Cloudy with light rain, High 50, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 54, Low 44
Tuesday – Light rain starting in the morning.High 50, Low 46

Some outlets seem to thing tomorrow can still get fairly warm. It will come down to how much sun they can see, and how calm winds are. Check out the developing system in the southeast. You can see a swirl over Tennessee where the low is emerging.

Weather Wayback… Before the drought

Earlier today, the SPC issued an extreme fire danger advisory for parts for New Mexico and Arizona, as neither location has seen much rain since the middle of February. In Farmington, where Anthony forecast on the 10th, they haven’t seen more than a trace since February 12th. Incredible to note that that .08″ they saw on that Sunday before Valentine’s Day was the last significant precipitation they saw, and we were there for the forecast. It looked to be a rainy weekend, especially by northwest New Mexico standards, but Saturday remained dry. Looking at how things have gone since then, I’ll bet they would have appreciated a little bit of rain on Saturday! For verification purposes, we can award Accuweather the top forecast for that particular February weekend.
Actuals
Saturday, February 11th – High 64, Low 43
Sunday, February 12th –  .08 inches of rain, High 53, Low 37

Grade: B-C

April Showers

The 6-10 day outlook is definitely not one that seems to encourage outdoor activities. As it appears right now, a large portion of the country, notably almost all of it east of the Rockies, looks to see above average precipitation. There projects to be a slow moving trough over the center of the country, with a southwest to northeast jet running from Texas to the Great Lakes for several days. Model guidance suggests several systems following this path  from the middle of next week into the weekend, with the rainy core of these features following the brightest highlight on the map.

This is going to be a sloppy week for a lot of the country. With that trough continually reinforced next week, it looks to be rather chilly in the Plains, but unusually warm along the east coast. This clash could lead to a dicey situation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Stay tuned!

Well, this is unusual

Here we sit towards the end of April, taking care to monitor the middle of the country as the severe weather season winds up, and while we haven’t been short changed on rainfall in heartland, we also haven’t been monitoring the Atlantic.

Fortunately, the National Hurricane Cnter has no time for the Plains, and was looking at the Atlantic. Perhaps because they haven’t had anything to do since autumn, they have started issuing advisories for a subtropical area of low pressure, southeast of the Azores. For those still unfamiliar, the official hurricane season doesn’t begin until June 1st.

First the good news. This system won’t threaten any land masses, and is mostly a concern for the fish residing in the Sargasso Sea. Actually, it’s all good news. The issuance of these advisories isn’t really an ominous sign of things to come for the summer and fall this year, but rather a representation of improved satellite coverage and a recent aggression from the NHC in labelling sub tropical storms as things to be monitored.

Forecasts have the storm fizzling out by the end of the day today, even further away from land than it is now.

[postscript] After writing this, the NHC has elevated this to Tropical Storm status. Arlene, as she is so named, is still fizzle overnight tonight. As Anthony said on Twitter, “anything to boost the numbers”.

Rain dampens Pine Bluff

The words isolated and scattered have meaning to a meteorologist. For example, on Easter in Pine Bluff, outlets across the country labeled the threat for storms as “isolated”. Indeed, the weather was not widespread enough to inflict any unpleasant weather on Pine Bluff. The forecast on Monday, however, was for scattered showers and storms. There was over half an inch of rain in Pine Bluf, as showers smothered southern Arkansas. Weatherbug was very close on temperatures, and claimed victory.
Actuals – Sunday – High 81, Low 63
Monday – .64 inches of rain, High 78, Low 65

Grade: A-C

Coming soon…

We’re staying put for a few days. That is to say, we are just going to one forecast at time in one city after another.

Barnstable, Massachusetts

New York, New York

Burlington, Vermont

Wheeling, West Virginia

Flagstaff, Arizona

Breaking out in Wyoming

The Easter weekend was downright wonderful in Wyoming’s capital and largest city. The sun was well anticipated by forecasters everywhere, but it was even stronger in Cheyenne than most people expected. On Saturday and Sunday, the high was 66, boosted by clearer skies than anticipated, and winds that were more quickly from the west, contributing to downsloping flow and a quick warm up. There was a tie at the top, as Accuweather and The Weather Channel drew level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 39
Sunday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B

Too many people don’t know where they are

Rusty Lord of WOWT tweeted about a concern that many meteorologists don’t recognize for being as severe as it is.

So many of us roll our eyes when we hear people say that there was no warning of a pending storm. Instead, it might be important to know why people didn’t receive a warning. Often, it’s because they didn’t know there was a warning. They didn’t know there was a warning, because they literally didn’t know where they were.

A study in the state of Alabama expanded on this notion.  So many people don’t know their home county, or where their hometown is within the county. There are many theories as to why this might be. The fact that paper maps are no longer necessary, and the need to recognize landmarks is not as important seems to be one of them, but also a general lack of education on local geography.

Aside from severe weather, why would one need to know most of this information? For public safety, and certainly other reasons, it’s so important though. Even if we can get children educated on where they are on a local map, as well as some of the surrounding spots and local county names, that will necessarily feed into the knowledge as those kids grow up, as well as those around them.

It’s a systemic problem, but unlike most issues meteorologists deal with, the system is societal.