All posts by Ryan

Manchester, New Hampshire to San Jose, California

Ooh, this is going to be a long trip. The trip will cover 6 days on the calendar and 3165 miles on the map. Thanks to those transcontinental interstates that we will make use of, we will be able to maintain a speed of 67.3mph, which means the first 5 days will cover 538 miles per day. The final day will be a hair shorter, but by that point, I think we will just happy to be in San Jose.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Well, Gert is still going strong out in the Gulfstream, and indirectly, she will make our first day on the road a good one. High pressure with clear skies is going to move into the region, allowing us an easy drive through Massachusetts and Upstate New York. We’ll make it to the western part of the state and the town of Wesfield along the shores of Lake Erie, and just north of the Pennsylvania border.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
After a good day of driving on Wednesday, we will encounter our first real system, as an upper level low charges in from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. It’s not going to be one of those systems that has a ton of severe weather, especially as we first encounter it around Ashtabula, Ohio, but we might see some heavy rain and thunder nevertheless. The cold front is moving fairly quickly as these early autumn (I know, not yet) features can. We’ll get one last dose of rain around Chicago, and then cover the remainder of northern Illinois and make it all the way to Peru in the central part of the state before we call it a night.

DAY THREE (Friday)
It will be a bit cloudy as the low in the Great Lakes will slow down and churn up the atmosphere in its wake. An inverted trough angled from the Upper Midwest towards Iowa, a state that we will spend a great portion of our Friday. There may be a touch of precipitation between Des Moines and Omaha, but it will be very hit or miss. We’ll likely collect a drop or two, if my road tripping history tells me anything, but not enough to slow us down on the arrow straight I-80. We will make it into Nebraska, past Omaha and Grand Island, all the way to Wood River, where we will stop for the night.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
Like I said, that weak little low seems to be the only issue we will encounter on our drive this week. A nice fat ridge will be setting up by the weekend over the Rockies and High Plains. Unless there are some microscale wind gusts in the valleys of Central Wyoming. We’ll make it to Red Desert, which is a small spot between Rawlins and Rock Springs.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
There is rarely anything to chat about when we get from Wyoming to the Great Basin, both because the weather is pretty static, and because there aren’t many benchmarks on the map to reference if there is anything going on. By Sunday, that upper level ridge will be shifting to the east, allowing some monsoonal flow to start spilling back to the north, but any precipitation will be at the very peaks of the tallest mountains of the Wasatch. While we likely won’t see precipitation from these storms, don’t be surprised if there is a little bit of wind rushing down the mountains. We’ll stop in Battle Mountain in northern Nevada, which isn’t really a mountain, but a flat bit of land near a mountain.

DAY SIX (Monday)
More moisture will be spilling into the Great Basin as the ridge continues its departure. It will be late in the day before the wet weather shifts east to encounter the Sierras between Reno and Sacramento, and it seems very likely that we will get through the area before any real wet weather sets itself up. The heat wave has dissipated out west, so expect a comfortable drive through California to the Silicone Valley, finally culminating this enormous road trip.

Manchester, New Hampshire

There isn’t much space for cities in New England, but today, we’re headed for Manchester in southern New Hampshire. This would be much more interesting in winter.

At 953PM, ET, Manchester was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. A look at the observations in the area suggests that the clouds in Manchester are keeping temperatures artificially warmer, as clear skies were being observed nearby, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s from Boston to Concord. Tropical Storm Gert lingers off the Carolina coast, with a remnant cold front slicing just south of Long Island into southern New Jersey, and an upper level low spins over central Quebec.
Gert will get wrapped into the dangling boundary, pulling it further to the east, which will in turn allow the upper low to drift to the east. Expect a weak boundary to move through the region tomorrow evening, with an increase in clouds. There could be a spot of rain, but most of the activity will  remain in the mountains north and west of Manchester. Cool high pressure behind this round of shower activity will take hold on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with a bit of late drizzle, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 80, Low 61
Wednesday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 83, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers between 10am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny high 84, Low 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny,  High 84, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Party sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 80, Low, 63
Wednesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 63
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 77, Low 60
Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 77, Low 61

Here is a look at the satellite, which didn’t pull in too tight to the Manchester area, but you can see all the features I described, from Gert, to the cold front to the Quebecois low.

Cincinnati, Ohio

Hello! I’ve been on vacation for the past week or so. Let’s touch base with the weather again by taking a look at Cincinnati, right in the middle of the country. That should give us a pretty good idea how things are going.

At 552PM, eastern time, Cincinnati was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skiees. A pleasant batch of surface high pressure was parked over the Great Lakes. Aloft, a broad area of low pressure over Hudson Bay was ensuring that southern Ohio and northern Kentucky remained cool. Tropical Storm Gert over the southern Gulf Stream was managing to draw any moist flow away from the pull of the subtropical trough in Canada, allowing Ohio Cincinnati to remain dry for the time being.
As Gert and the Canadian low shift to the east, they will allow for a surface ridge to drive to the north ahead of the next upper level trough. With it will come a return to warm, humid air more associated with the dog days of summer. There s a chance for some increased cloudiness as the warm air presses north, but the rain showers attached to the warm front should emerge north of Cincinnati.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 62
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, warmer and stuffier, High 87, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 85, Low 62
Tuesday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 89, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Beautiful with periods of clouds and sun High 82, Low 62
Tuesday – Partly sunny and humid High 88, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing, High 88, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 63
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 64
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 66

It’s been unseasonably cool across much of the eastern portion of the country, but it looks like that is going to be changing course over the next few days. Here is a look at the satellite over the eastern US, with Gert pictured off the coast.

At least it’s cool at night

Make no doubt about it, Washington has been very hot recently, and that will continue at least for a couple of days this week. The high temperatures in Yakima (and elsewhere) have been very high, but there is some good news, again, at least in Yakima. Temperatures cooled off to near 60 both Friday and Saturday morning, which means, despite sweltering temperatures during the day, it seems likely the population of Yakima was well rested. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation joined to put together the best forecast for the day.
Actuals: Friday – High 103, Low 59
Saturday – High 98, Low 62

Grade: B-D

Keep an eye on AL99

Erica swept from Florida and northeast along the coast last week, bringing a tremendous amount of rain over Florida and up along the east coast. We are getting towards the active part of the hurricane, and it looked like there were a couple of features in Erica’s wake that bore watching. The first disturbance is wasting itself in the ITCZ off the South American Coast. The second, feature, presently out by Cabo Verde off the west coast of Africa, is a bit more interesting.

It’s still more than a week and a half from being of serious concern for the Continental US, but initial forecasts suggest that it is something that could have a direct impact on the US Mainland.

There is a lot of time between now and then. The furthest point on this spaghetti plot is 10 days out. The fact that this feature will track over a great deal of open ocean suggests plenty of time for intensification, and there is a definite chance we could be talking about a landfalling hurricane somewhere in Florida later this month.

Muncie, Indiana to Yakima, Washington

While neither scity at the end points of this road trip are typically through of as tourist destinations, a late summer drive along this route would be quite interesting. There will be praries and mountains and valleys and national parks all along the way for us to stretch our legs and enjoy. We are in for a 4 day trek covering 2187 miles. We’ll just be quartering up the days, so our approximately 68mph pace will mean a daily goal of about 547 miles.


DAY ONE (Saturday)

Unusually cool air is expected to develop behind a cold front moving out of the Great Lakes, setting up the terrible pattern of being cool when you get into the car, but too warm after driving with the sun beating down on you. Do you turn on the AC? Roll down a window? Heaven for bid you try to take off a layer while driving through central Illinois. A developing system in the central Plains will kick some clouds and warmer air north late in the day, but we will stay dry to start the weekend, stopping in Rudd in northeastern Iowa to finish our first of four days.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
That developing system in the central Plains is going to be a heck of a rain maker in Missouri and southern Iowa this weekend. As we get going, some of that might bleed into Rudd, and stay with us during the first leg of Sunday’s drive to Mason City. Unlike driving in the wake of the feature on Saturday, we will not be blessed with dry air and clear skies. Instead, expect moisture to wrap into the still developing upper level trough behind the leading edge of the feature, leading to cooling clouds and rain showers. This is a broad, open trough, and these clouds and showers will stay with us all the way to Wicksville, South Dakota, between Wall and Rapid City. This will be our stop to conclude the weekend. Hope the sleeping bag is warm!

DAY THREE (Monday)
One other difference between the Day One Great Lakes low and the Day two Plains low, is that the high pressure behind the trough will be much stronger in the northern High Plains. Expect it to settle in and keep things mostly sunny, dry and increasingly warm from Wicksville to Whitehall in southwestern Montana.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
There was a lot of rain in the High Plains this week, but the Pacific Northwest will remain completely dry through the 4 days we are headed out towards Yakima. The central Valley will remain very hot as we move in, and it will continue to be quite smoky throughout the region, as there is a continue threat for wildfire initiation to go along with the fires that are already raging. It will be hot and smoky in Yakima, so maybe find a spot with a good air filtration system.

Yakima, Washington

Without getting too deep into things right away, I can tell you one thing for sure about Yakima for the ext couple of days: it’s going to be hot.

At 953PM, PT, Yakima was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies and smoke, thanks to some wildfires in the area, born of the near record breaking heat of the last several days. The most notable fire upwind from Yakima was in the Cascades outside of Portland.
Over the next few days, the thermal ridge doesn’t look like it is going to deteriorate any time soon, however the ridge aloft looks to dampen slightly over the next couple of days. This will lead to some increased westerly flow, which may bring a dose of mid level moisture, and a little bit of relief during the heating of the day.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 66
Saturday – Partly cloudy, HIgh 99, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 105, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny skies. High 100, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Very hot and smoky with hazy sun; extreme heat may be dangerous for outdoor activities High 104, Low 64
Saturday – Hazy sunshine and very hot; extreme heat may be dangerous for outdoor activities High 99, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze. Patchy smoke. Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 61
Saturday – Widespread haze after 11am. Areas of smoke. Sunny and hot,  High 100, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Haze with patchy smoke High 102, Low 66
Saturday – Mostly sunny, Areas of smoke through the day, High 98, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny with haze. High 102, Low 61
Saturday – Partly cloudy with areas of smoke, High 100, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 99, Low 70
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, Low 66

So it’s not much relief, but it is a little bit cooler this weekend. Still, I think heavy use of the air conditioner is in order. Satellite shows a big area of subsidence over the Pacific Northwest.

Coming soon…

It’s going to be a cool week this week in the east, and with near record breaking heat on the west coast. Will we find a common ground soon?

Cincinnati, Ohio

Manchester, New Hampshire

Road Trip from Manchester to San Jose, California

Ann Arbor, Michigan

July forecaster of the Month

It always seems like a slow month here, but once again, we pumped out 12 forecasts, which isn’t bad. Also not bad, the competition. There was a tie at the top, with a half a point separating those two from third place, The Weather Channel. It came down to the very end, but Victoria-Weather was able to catch up to the National Weather Service, and we will both end up having to share this trophy.

Baked Potatoes

Late last week, we took a hard look at Boise, where rain had cleared out, and hot dry air was on its way into the Sun Valley. We all knew the hoot air was coming, but even given that, nobody was quite warm enough, with highs of 99 and 103. Forecast.io was closest, though, with highs in their forecast of 97 and 103. Almost there!
Actuals: Friday – High 99, Low 69
Saturday – High 103, Low 68

Grade: A-D