All posts by Ryan

Cold Turkey

A cold front moving through the country towed a big swath of cold temperatures through the Plains, and that chilly air was able to sink as far south as Wichita Falls. The most apparent time of day for those chilly temperatures was overnight, when low temperatures plummeted into the low to mid 30s. Brr! The clear skies allowed for those chilly temperatures overnight, but let temperatures climb back into the 60s as well. Victoria-Weather and surprising WeatherNation came together to get the tie.
Actuals: Sunday – High 61, Low 35
Monday – High 66, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Temperatures that don’t belong in Arizona

Flagstaff isn’t the type of town that you think of when you think of Arizona. The winter is often chilly and snowy, while in the summer, it never gets quite as warm as the more famous environs of the state. Flagstaff was expected to be fairly cool over the weekend, but by golly, those overnight lows were unreasonable. It was as cold as 10 degrees on Sunday morning. 10! This was much colder than expected, and across the board, forecasts went bust. The top spots went to Accuweather and Forecast.io, but they weren’t terribly good either.
Actuals: Saturday – High 46, Low 15
Sunday – High 55, Low 10

Grade: D-F

Lincoln, Nebraska to Providence, Rhode Island

All right, let’s take a road trip, shall we? We’re headed towards New England, on a 3 day road trip, though that third day will be a bit shorter than the first two days. It’s a 1,480 mile trip, which we will lope across at a pace of 67.4mph, which will set a goal of 539 miles per day.  This route takes us right over the (Mississippi) River and through some woods, so to Grandmother’s House (In Providence) we go!


DAY ONE (Monday)
This should be one of the more active times of year, but as we get going Monday morning, there is a very summer like pattern setting up. Oh, it’s definitely late autumn, the thermometer doesn’t lie. What is summer like is the big old swath of the country with almost nothing going on. Of course, it’s not the big omega blocking jet pattern – quite the opposite, actually, with a couple of troughs interfering with one another. Still, the effect is the same, as tranquil conditions are expected across the Upper Midwest on Monday, with temperatures much warmer than they are today. We’ll make it through Illinois, and call it a day in Hobart, Indiana, just south of Lake Michigan.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
There is a wave scooting through Canada, giving the perception of a dome of high pressure dominating the heartland. This perception will be betrayed when the system reaches the north end of the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will hook up with that lake moisture and supply a little bit of snow east of Michigan and Erie. We should have no problem outpacing the burst of snow while we are in motion, but when we stop in Le Roy, New York, southwest of Rochester, the boundary will catch up to us. Don’t be surprised to find a thin dusting of snow on our car on Wednesday morning.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
As that Canadian low starts to move poleward, it will hook up with a big swath of moisture moving through the Gulf stream. Our drive across the Hudson and into New England will be dry, however the coast will be rainy for much of the day. Because of our pace, we might get to Providence before the clouds and rain leave town, but when it does, the sun will be soon to follow. Oh, it won’t be warm or anything, but the sun will definitely be out.

Providence, Rhode Island

Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High High 41, Low 32
Tuesday – Sunny, High 55, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds.  High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.High 57, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler High 43, Low 32
Tuesday – Warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds High 58, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 42, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny,  High 59, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 39, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny. High 54, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 41, Low 31
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 56, low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until night. High 42, Low 35
Tuesday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 57, Low 38

A blustery night for the entire country

This late night look at the iwind gusts across the country should give everyone a good hint as to why the kids are up, worried about monsters outside. The gusty winds are causing limbs to creak and branches to scratch windows from the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic to the Gulf of Meico, and in the northern High Plains as well, all in the wake of a cold front that has just crawled over the Appalachians, and will push off the coast over night, and ahead of the next system from the Pacific Northwest.

This time of year, systems are outsized with sharper changes in air mass ahead of and behind systems. As a result, even when we are between systems, the autumn can be one of the windiest times of the year.

Flagstaff, Arizona to Wichita Falls, Texas

Two cities that tend to find themselves along the way for other, longer trips are the beginning and end of this evening’s trek. It is a day and a half between the two towns, covering 829 miles of very empty roads.  We’ll move at the brisk pace of 68.5mph, which means our Sunday drive will cover 548 miles, certainly a decent chunk of this voyage. The weather is probably going to be ok, but why don’t we find out for sure?


DAY ONE (Sunday)

Things look very good as we start this whole “road trip through the southwest” thing. A ridge is building in the western US, but not one of those obnoxiously strong ones that oppressive heat or gusty wind builds under. Instead, it will just be a nice cool-ish, perfectly sunny drive through the Rockies, past Albuquerque and into Cuervas, New Mexico, which is between Santa Rosa and Tucumcari. I don’t believe it is named after the tequila, but you can find out!

DAY TWO (Monday)
A very weak little vortex is now being forecast to develop in the southern High Plains, expected to swing through the Panhandle towards Wichita Falls on Monday. What does this mean? Probably nothing. Maybe temperatures won’t be as warm as the forecast originally had this morning, and probably a few clouds, especially up around Amarillo. Wichita Falls is going to be dry when we pull in though, and looking good as Thanksgiving approaches.

Wichita Falls, Texas

Seems weird actually writing up a forecast, rather than having a video for it. I think it would be a pretty dull video though, so here we are, left with this.

At 252PM, CT, Wichita Falls was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with sunny skies and a brisk north wind, gusting to 35mph. The entire region, from Oklahoma to north Texas, was experiencing similar conditions, mostly sunny and with a strong northerly breeze. A surface cold front was evident in the observed wind field off the coast near Houston, but the line of associated clouds still hung out inland north of the Houston area.
The sharp upper level trough, as a function of its strength, will rotate quickly towards New England, with a sharp thermal trough clearing out with it. Clear skies and stiller air will move into the region by tomorrow, though the temperatures will be cooler than they were last week, thanks to another undercutting trough moving in from the Southern Rockies.
Tomorrow – Calmer, sunny, High 60, Low 34
Monday – Sunny, High 65, Low 36

TWC – Sunny skies, High 62, Low 35
Monday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon.  High 67, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – Clear, High 62, Low 35
Monday – Clear and breezy High 67. Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 60, Low 34
Monday – Sunny High 65, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 34
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 59, Low 36
Monday – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 62, Low 39

So here is the satellite, showing that thin band of clouds now south of the Dallas area. They are too far up to be picked up by ASOS sensors on the ground.

Great expectations

A system moving through the Ohio Valley was supposed to start pulling some warm air off the Gulf and into southeastern Georgia, where it was to warm things back up in places like Hinesville, perhaps even comfortably above average. It did warm back up, but those rising temperatures only brought it back to near normal. The more optimistic outlets suffered, as a result, but The Weather Channel, who suspected the warmth would be less successful on moving back into the region, ended up earning victory.
Actuals Wednesday – High 63, Low 42
Thursday – High 72, Low 38

Grade: A-B

Flagstaff, Arizona

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 22
Sunday – Sunny, High 56, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 48, Low 24
Sunday – Abundant sunshine. High 57, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 49, Low 25
Sunday – Sunny much of the time High 57, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 29
Sunday – Sunny,  HIgh 56. Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 45, Low 24
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 54, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny with slight chance of showers, High 52, Low 26
Sunday – Sunny with a slight chance of light showers, High 56, Low 23

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 43, Low 22
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning.

Forecasts are crazy and all over the map. This will be an interesting verification!