All posts by Ryan

Dayton, Ohio

Let’s head out for a forecast in southwestern Ohio. Shall we?

At 756PM, ET, Dayton was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.  A sharp, late season trough over the Great Lakess was producing a surface area of low pressure in the lower Ohio Valley, while a leading band of precipitation ran from Virginia southward as a surface low was amplifying instability in that area. Ohio found itself between the two features, but that was not to be a long lived situation.
The broader, upper level low will shift from being centered over Illinois east towards Ohio. As the coastal feature shifts off shore by the early afternoon, the Gulf will be opened and moisture will flood northward. Expect widespread showers across Dayton through most of the afternoon on Wednesday and throughout the day on Thursday as the bloated feature drifts eastward. The best threat for heavy rain, or even an isolated thunderstorm will be late Wednesday when the center of circulation moves overhead. Thursday will see much lighter precipitation with wrap around moisture falling as drizzle.
Tomorrow – Rain with an embedded thunderstorm, mostly in the afternoon and evening, High 68, Low 55
Thursday – Light rain, High 64, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon.  High 71, Low 58
Thursday –  Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 67. Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cool with a few showers High 64, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High 67, Low 57
Thursday – A chance of showers. Cloudy, High 66, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 67, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 64, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers High 66, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 71, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain until evening.High 66, Low 58

If this was the winter, Dayton would be in for a great deal of snow, thanks to the slow moving nature of this system, and the temperature change would be much more pronounced. Instead, it’s just going to be gray and dull. Here is the satellite, with clouds across most of the region, but none of those bubbly rain clouds over the Dayton area….for now.

No changes coming

It’s been a chilly, rainy week across the middle of the country. It’s also been getting warmer and warmer out west as summer bears down on the Pacific Coast. I wanted to see if there is going to be a respite in the near future.

Well, no.

Most of the country will continue to be clobbered by rain as the upper level pattern remains relentless. There will continue to be areas of low pressure developing from the central and southern Plains to the southeast, asbroad upper level troughing simply refuses to leave. Towards the beginning of June, the stronger jet components will diminish, but troughing at the upper levels will continue.

Oh, and you know what upper level troughing means.

Cold, right in the middle of the country. And then, in the west it will remain warm, exasperating snow melt in that area. One area that benefits overall is the East Coast, which will enjoy southerly flow through most of the next two weeks.

Most of the country has too much water

Almost every region of the country has some sort of advisory for flooding, be it river flooding or flash flooding or something. 

Much f the country, particularly those parts in the Appalachians down towards the central Gulf Coast, and spots from the Ozarks to the western Great Lakes are all under flood advisories. These are all due to all the rain these areas have seen. Watch out along the coast, because this rain is still coming.

It looks pretty dry out west, doesn’t it? What’s going on there? Well, this is a carryover from a snowy winter, and now that spring temperatures are on the rise, there is rapid snow melt, leading to the engorging of mountain streams and rivers.

If you see a flooded roadway, especially one you aren’t otherwise familiar with, don’t try t traverse it. That is the deadliest mistake most often made in flood situations.

Lawton, Oklahoma to Tucson, Arizona

That was fun, let’s do it again! This time, the trip will route out of Lawton and head towards Arizona. This is a lonely drive, but at least it will only last a day and a half. Lawton and Tucson are only 867 miles apart, which we will cover at a pace of 63.1mph. This is what happens when there isn’t a major freeway between a couple towns. We’ll call it a night after the standard 8 hours of driving, which in this case will equate to 505 hours of driving. This should be less rainy than this afternoon’s drive, that’s for sure.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

There is a pool of cool air settling into the Plains behind the current cold front running west of the Appalachians, and it will keep the drive mostly dry on Sunday. Later in the day, there is some suggestion that a dry line will set up through west Texas, but I don’t think it is unstable enough that the thunderstorms will be terribly widespread, and the turning in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cause some rganization around the Big Bend. Long story short, as we drive between Lubbock and Amarillo, on towards Clovis, we will stay dry. It will continue to be dusty and dry in Tularosa, New Mexico, which is just north of Alamogordo.

DAY TWO (Monday)
After the little feature in southern Texas organizes a bit, it will shift into the Mississippi Valley and pull away any area moisture along with it, leaving our drive to be exactly what we would expect a drive through southern New Mexico annd Arizona to be like. Dry, sunny, pretty warm. Oh, and terribly empty. We won’t see much in the way of life between Alamogordo annd Tucson, so enjoy it when we get there.

Lakeland, Florida to Lawton, Oklahoma

We’re finally going on a road trip together for the first time in a while. You’ve been out and about with Anthony, but it’s my time to take you on a two day trek, this from central Florida to southwest Oklahoma. The drive will take us two days and cover 1284 miles, slicing through the southeastern US. It will be warm, certainly, and that second nearly 11 hour drive will be fairly grueling, but we will be moving at a pace of 68mph, and will cover 544 miles on our first day, leaving the rest of the meat on the bone for Monday. We should get on the road and beat the heat.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Despite an embedded vorticity maximum within a stalled cold front over the Lower Mississippi Valley, we will be in good shape as we begin our day Sunday. The Florida Peninsula will be in great shape, and we will be in the Peninsula for the first several hours of our day. In the Panhandle, isolated thunderstorms will begin to crop up, starting around Lake City, but certainly by the time we reach Tallahassee, we will have seen at least a bit of rain. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms, appearing more like sea breeze storms than frontal activity. We will encounter stronger, synoptic scale showers and storms not long after we Panama City, and there is a threat for some gusty winds and stronger thunderstorms all the way to Lucedale, Mississippi, just north of Gulfport, northwest of Mobile.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Another lower level eddy will be getting kicked up Sunday night over south Texas, and will be bringing some moisture inland early in the morning on Monday. There will be some rain in Lucedale as we depart, but as we drive north towards Jackson, it will clear out. The warm weather will give rise to increasing thunderstorm activity, which we will battle from Monroe, Louisiana to Longview, Texas. Much more manageable activity will continue through Dallas, but traffic will undoubtedly slow us down. Another thunderstorm may crop up in the last hour or so from Wichita Falls to Lawton, but if we don’t, we will leave the stratus behind and only see sun between the showers.

Knowing the territory

The weather in Visalia was not expected to cause any issues, either for the forecasters investigating the city, nor for residents of Visalia, who enjoyed sun and highs in the low 70s. The top forecast, with only one degree of error, belonged to the NWS, which seemed to have some advantages in being the only outlet that forecasts for Visalia all the time. West Coast forecasts are all about familiarity.
Actuals: Sunday – High 73, Low 48
Monday – High 73, Low 50

Grade: A-C

Thunderstorms will organize on Tuesday

There have been strong thunderstorms throughout the Plains, especially the northern Plains, where even at this late hour, there are severe thunderstorm watches from Wisconsin to Wyoming, including one around Sioux City Iowa that was recently issued.

This is the calling call of advancing warm air, these late night areas of convection. Storms can be strong, and will feed off of each other overnight, but will dissipate tomorrow morning.

Then, the next round will step in almost immediately. A more well organized area of low pressure will slide into the Plains tomorrow, and will generate helicity and updrafts within a juicy environment. The SPC has a much more perilous forecast for tomorrow. Check out the area that is hatched on this forecast map.

Hatched areas are those in which there is a threat for “significant” severe weather. In this case, I would expect hail over an inch in diameter or tornadoes EF-2 or stronger.

Storms will continue through the night, but the bigger threat will come tomorrow in the Plains. Expect some good video of some photogenic activity as it rolls through chase country.

Rains ruin a weekend

It was raining last Thursday when we started looking at Lancaster for our end of the week forecast. There was a splash of drizzle on Friday, but that didn’t foretell of a quiet day on Saturday, Saturday was drowned out by .83 inches of rain, and it didn’t even clear out for Sunday. I hope local Mothers’ Day activities were at least in gazebos instead of on the deck. The NWS had a great forecast, so there was plenty of time to plan if anyone listened to them.
Actuals:  Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 51
Saturday – .83 inches of rain, High 55, Low 48

Grade: A-B