All posts by Ryan

Muggy in Miami

Ok, so it’s always muggy in Miami, and sometimes when I’m putting together a post I enjoy a little alliteration in the title. Really, the big factor in this verification was the fact that there was a little spritz of rain on Thursday morning, and temperatures were nice and warm during the day, hitting the low 90s on both Thursday and Friday. All of these things combined to give Accuweather the narrow victory. 
Actuals: Thursday – Rain reported, not measured, High 90, Low 79
Friday – High 91, Low 81

Grade: B-C

Lafayette, Indiana

I kept looking at the schedule (even marking it incorrectly on the coming soon post) and thinking we were forecasting for the Lafayette in Louisiana. Nope! I mmisread it the whole time, and we are going back to my old stomping grounds, the home of Purdue University and Lafayette, Indiana.

At 754PM, ET, Lafayette was reporting a muggy 78 degrees with fair skies. Indiana and Illinois were in the process of being overcome by some high stratus, precediing an area of low pressure in the Lower Missouri Valley. The rest of the evening looks to be fair, though still humid under continued southerly flow. 
The sharp cut off low in the Plains is going to associate with the mean upper level flow and slow down significantly. The leading edge of rain and thunderstorms will arrive in central Indiana by mid-day tomorrow, but the cold front itself will generally be occluded. A broad area of steady rain is possible through the day, through a few rumbles of thunder are likely to be embedded. The low will track just south of Lafayette early on Tuesday morning, which will bring the heavy precipitation to an end. Still, in the afterglow of this system, there will be a bit of light rain through most of the day on Tuesday. High pressure will move in late in the evening, but not in time to salvage the day.
Tomorrow – Rain with embedded thunderstorms, High 77, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a smattering of shower activity, High 75, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms. High 80, Low 66
Tuesday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 75, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable clouds, humid; a couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm High 79, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, a shower or thunderstorm around High 77, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm High 78, Low 65
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy,  High 77, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and chance of thunderstorms. High 78, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms, High 76, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 77, Low 68

FIO: Tomororw – Rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 79, Low 68
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning, and breezy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 77, Low 66

I’ve made my return to Lafayette, but it looks like I couldn’t bring any good weather along the way. Here is the satellite, showing clouds rolling in, as the beginning of a bummer of a week approaches.

Weather Wayback… a quick bounceback

Presently in Lake Havasu City, Arizona, it is 97 degrees. It’s shortly below midnight, if that gives you any extra perspective. Back in November, just before Thanksgiving, Lake Havasu was coming off a splash of rain the Friday before, and was very slow to recover. Even the following Monday, it was only 72 degrees for a high on Monday, with temperatures climbing on Tuesday, but even then only into the low 80s. Again, at present, it is 97 degrees, just before midnight currently. Back in the autumn, it was The Weather Channel who had the top forecast in a much more comfortable day. 
Actuals: November 20th: High 72, Low 47
November 21st: High 82, Low 54

Grade: A-C

Stable pattern means smoke for the country

Once again, we are seeing a great number of fires, sweeping the western portion of North America. Fires are a natural occurrence, and good for the regeneration of hardwood forests, but with the urban sprawl moving ever deeper into the wilderness, the threat of fires to human livelihood increases, as does the threat for fires to be started by humans, either by accident, such as the Carr fire in northern California, or on purpose, such as the Holy Fire in southern California.

While the threat for fire is visceral in the west, the threat of smoke is real for much of the rest of the country, from something as simple as reduced visibility and haze, to poor air quality, respiratory issues and other safety and quality of life concerns.

The upper level pattern is fairly zonal, which is to say that the US’s upper level flow is moving predominantly west to east without many interruptions. The lone exception is a weak trough in the Pacific Northwest. The consequences are smoke pressing due eastward, right along the northern tier of states, both because of the predominant westerlies, but also because of the southerly flow within the trough, funneling California smoke in with the Washington and British Columbia haze.

One variable that helps to limit the amount of haze or smoke in the atmosphere is rainfall. It essentially cleans the skies up, as soot and smoke particles become captured in the water droplets, and the denser smoke gets scattered by updrafts. The southern US is enjoying some intermittent thunderstorms, while the threat for rain will shift northward for next week.

Lake Havasu City, Arizona to Miami, Florida

Have you ever thought you needed a vacation? Or more specifically, have you ever thought you needed to travel between two vacation destinations? Well, that’s what we get today, with a 4 ½ day, 2654 mile journey. We will get a good head of steam, with a pace of 71.7mph (cruisin’!) driving through the desert for half the trip, and will encounter 573.8 miles on the first 4 days which is frankly an impressive clip.

DAY ONE (Friday)

 

I can see why one might think this is an easy forecast, where I could just say “hot and dry until you hit Texas” but this is monsoon season in the Rockies, In Arizona during the early afternoon, the threat will primarily be in the higher terrain between Flagstaff and Phoenix, but there is a chance for some pop up showers and storms as we cross into New Mexico. Those storms are going to continue to be a possibility all the way into Las Cruces, where our night will end. 

DAY TWO (Saturday)
That diurnal shower and storm activity of the Rockies will only continue through the weekend. Activity is expected to linger in the El Paso area through the morning, but even as we take the hour or two from Las Cruces should be able to make it to west Texas with nary a drop. Ok, now is the time to complain about how boring it is. We’ll be fully out of the woods by Fort Stockton, and our day will take us to the San Antonio suburb of Boerne.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Sunday looks to be a dry day across east Texas, and you can rest assured that it will be hot and humid. We should be able to make it through Lake Charles before we have to worry about any thunderstorm activity. The primary risk will be centered around Lafayette, if only because storms are going to shift further inland as the day rolls on. There will be a stray shower somewhere along the rest of the route, I’m sure, but it won’t be as persistent as early in the day around Lafayette. We’ll almost reach Mississippi by day’s end, calling it a day in Slidell.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
Low pressure will be forming in the central Plains, but in the southeast, there won’t be a whole lot of organization to the activity. Right now, the models indicate a splash of rain around Mobile early, and some afternoon thunderstorms in north central Florida, but in truth, I think the threat will be there for showers early and thudnerstorms after about 2pm (say around Destin, Florida) for the entirety of the route. We will be near Orlando by day’s end, stopping in Groveland, Florida.

DAY FIVE (Tuesday)
High pressure mentioned in our forecast for Miami will be braking down in the western Atlantic north of the Bahama This will only mean a more likely clash of air masses in south Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible anywhere through the afternoon, but will likely start close to the coast and press inland as the day continues. Fortunately, we are moving in the opposite direction, and the threat will wind down as we reach Miami.

Miami, Florida

Miami is a fun town. As we reach the height of hurricane season, though, it might get a bit dicey. At the very least, it might warrant a longer look than normal!

At 0153AM. ET, Miami was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds have put a dent in the temperatures so far, as 90s have already arrived across the state in Fort Myers and Naples. There was little to suggest that Miami won’t catch up later in the day.
The western Atlantic is fairly quiet, despite Ernesto churning in the central part of the ocean. High pressure east of Florida is preventing most trade activity from strafing the Peninsula, but the southern end lies astride of Miami. For the next couple of days, the light east wind may lead to a few showers clipping south Florida, though sun will continue and highs will remain in the low 90s.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, passing showers, High 92, low 80
Friday – Partly cloudy, passing showers, High 92, Low 80

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 81
Friday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 88. Low 81

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, partly sunnyHigh 91, Low 82
Friday – Sunshine and patchy clouds, a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 81

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 88, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, low 81

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 81

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 81

FIO: tomorrow – Humid throughout the day and partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 89, Low 82
Friday – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 80, Low 81

My rule of thumb is always forecast rain in Florida, but apparently, there are a few people more confident in dry days than me.Here is a look at the tropics, with high pressure east of Florida

 

Many bullets dodged

Tulsa was the forecast we monitored over the weekend, and it was in a white knuckled tussle with thunderstorms. No storms actually hit the airport, but on Saturday, thunderstorms were reported in the vicinity. I didn’t have the heart to mark anyone wrong, for not having precipitation, nor for having thunderstorms in the forecast, because everyone was right. Therefore, it came down to temperatures. Without any activity on Sunday, temperatures spiked again in the low 90s. Only one outlet went that warm, and Forecast.io was able to claim victory as a result
Actuals: Saturday – Thunderstorms in the vicinity, High 93, Low 76
Sunday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: C-D

Perfect August weather

We took a look at the coming weather for Ann Arbor late last week, and it really worked out great for residents of southern Michigan (so too for meteorologists if I’m being honest.) Temperatures were manageable, especially on Friday after a weak cold front sneaked through Thursday night. There was a little bit of precipitation with the passage of the cold front, and temperatures went from the mid to low 80s for highs, while lows dipped to the low 60s. The best news was that meteorologists essentially nailed the forecast. The National Weather Service, who won the day, missed only by 1 degree of error.
Actuals: Thursday .10 inches of rain, High 85, Low 60
Friday – High 82, Low 64

Grade: A=C

July Forecaster of the Month

I think this might be the first time this has happened, but I haven’t been able to verify it quite yet. I think this might be the first time we’ve had WeatherNation step up and have the top record for an entire month of the year, but alas, they claimed the July crown, putting aside an affinity for the NWS forecast and a series of technical issues and display shortcomings. Congratulations, Weathernation, you’ve earned it.

Weather Wayback… Aiming to impress

Back in Mid-November last year, Anthony remarked upon his knowing someone that lived in our forecast city, Wheeling, West Virginia. He wanted to make sure that he would give a good impression by nailing this forecast. Close, I guess. It was a challenging forecast all around, so nobody had a perfect forecast, but Forecast.io  came through with the top forecast by going warm on the 16th, but more importantly, staying cool on the 17th. Was Anthony’s friend impressed? Maybe, but this wasn’t necessarily our best shhowing.
Actuals: November 16th – Trace of rain, High 47, Low 36
November 17th, High 44, Low 35

Grade: B-D