We’re 2 months through the official hurricane season now for the Atlantic Basin, and this is usually when things start ramping up. Upper-level shear starts to significantly weaken and waves off the African coastline have better odds of finding favorable conditions to develop. Looking out at the Atlantic, however, there really isn’t much to write home about. There’s a disturbance which the NHC has listed at a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, but given the relatively cool waters around 35N/50W and it’s slow northeastward movement, odds look slim at this system developing into anything of real concern. There’s been a significant African dust layer over the more tropical areas of the Atlantic over the last couple of weeks which has really put the kibosh on anything getting revved up. For the next several days, looks like things are pretty benign!
In the Pacific, however, things are a LOT more active. Ileana and John are spinning their way not far from the Mexican coastline, the latter looking like it could be a major hurricane as it approaches Baja CA. The storm should remain off to the west of it so that’s encouraging news.
Of even more importance is Hurricane Hector out over the Central Pacific. It looks to keep a mainly westward trajectory over the next several days, which is good for Hawaii since it currently has maximum sustained winds of 155mph, just a tick below Category 5 strength. The big island has a tropical storm watch out for it and given model forecasts, a brush from Hector is all that it looks like it will get. Given its intensity, I’m sure they’re more than okay with that.