Hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1st, but we are already keeping an eye on the Tropics, and most notably, a disturbance off the Yucatan. Let’s first get the scary image out of the way. Here is what the GFS has for Saturday afternoon.
That is a closed isobar around a tropical feature off the Florida Peninsula. Yikes!
Now some sanity. Model guidance doesn’t have this storm getting any stronger than a very modest tropical storm, and the biggest threat is a ruined weekend on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The feature will landfall around Apalachicola sometime on Sunday. There might be some light tree damage, and as I noted the rain could be heavy at times, but the feature won’t linger. The feature will pull away from the coast by the night of Memorial Day.
So yes, there is a little feature that will likely make some news, but it’s not going to be the end of the world. Somewhat more importantly, one early storm, even a named storm, is not indicative of how the season will unfold in it’s totality, however the NHC is predicting a somewhat above average season in the North Atlantic.