Yesterday, Anthony discussed a spring system that’s headed for the Plains, and he focused particularly on the threat for snow in the Upper Midwest. Run to run, it’s been pretty speculative as to where and how much snow would fall. I tend to hedge towards the lower end of the spectrum, of the opinion that more warm air will surge north because April Gosh Danged 12th. Some people are more pessimistic, and they have every right to be, given some of the model runs and how depressing this spring has been so far.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty over the amount of snow or where it will happen, but the storm is showing signs of looking extremely springlike in at least one manner. We are looking fairly locked in for a broad severe weather outbreak this weekend, as the cold front moves across the south central US. Already there is an enhanced risk of severe weather, and I would be surprised if there isn’t a moderate risk as we approach the valid period.
The outlook for moderate storms presently stretches from Kansas City to College Station for Friday. A sure sign of trouble ahead is the expectation of severe weather on the 3 day outlook, which has an outlook for a triangle from Clarksville, TN to Tallahassee and Lafayette Louisiana. The threat for severe weather is far more tangible than the snow expected.
There will be no primary threat out of this system – The trifecta is possible, from tornadoes to strong winds and large hail, thanks to the layout of the storm, with a tightly wound area of low pressure to the north to a strong, active cold front in the south.
Having a bunch of strong thunderstorms in the southern US, tied to an active snow storm is a very typically March pattern, and is a sure sign of the seasonal transition. The problem is that the season should have already transitioned at this point.