Keep an eye on AL99

Erica swept from Florida and northeast along the coast last week, bringing a tremendous amount of rain over Florida and up along the east coast. We are getting towards the active part of the hurricane, and it looked like there were a couple of features in Erica’s wake that bore watching. The first disturbance is wasting itself in the ITCZ off the South American Coast. The second, feature, presently out by Cabo Verde off the west coast of Africa, is a bit more interesting.

It’s still more than a week and a half from being of serious concern for the Continental US, but initial forecasts suggest that it is something that could have a direct impact on the US Mainland.

There is a lot of time between now and then. The furthest point on this spaghetti plot is 10 days out. The fact that this feature will track over a great deal of open ocean suggests plenty of time for intensification, and there is a definite chance we could be talking about a landfalling hurricane somewhere in Florida later this month.