Hurricane season for the Atlantic basin started a couple weeks ago, and all-in-all, it looked like quiet days were expected. That’s exactly how it’s panned out so far, but it looked like something interesting was getting stirred up around the Yucatan Peninsula! The 00 and 06Z GFS model runs indicated a low pressure system spinning up in the Bay of Campeche in about 6-8 days and meandering its way towards the Texas/Mexico border. Something to keep an eye on!
Then… the 12Z and 18Z model runs came through. Expectations were had! Instead, almost nothing of note is found there anymore. A bit of a surface trough still lingers in the region with clusters of possible convection festering nearby, but nothing like the earlier runs indicating a B-named storm getting spun up. The only area of note is waaaay out in the Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands. Usually we don’t get too excited about storms that far out in June/July since the upper level patterns don’t typically favor development that far east. August/September is usually when we gander that far out. But until then, we’ll continue to wait.