Spring systems moving through the northern Plains have been dangling cold fronts and touching off severe storms in the central and southern Plains for a few weeks now. The bulk of the deadly tornadoes have occurred from the Mississippi Valley eastward, but by and large, they have been from the Ohio River south. As May ends and June approaches, the onus will begin to shift north.
For the next two days, there is at least a marginal threat for severe weather as far north as the Dakotas and Minnesota.
The threat isn’t from a particularly extraordinary system, but rather a fairly minor area of low pressure. The change is that there is much more warmth filtering north than there was a few weeks ago, had a similar system passed by. The base level is more unstable, and less is required to touch storms off.
Wind and hail will be the greatest threat throughout the region, but don’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado along the Minnesota-Iowa border. Gusty winds will be more likely on Tuesday, when the threat will again stretch the length of the Plains.